The Mid-Term Elections

[jdobbin]

The latest Newsweek poll shows that the Republicans are in a freefall. They Foley scandal is really taking its toll.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15167150/site/.../site/newsweek/

I don't think that even falling gas prices can help stem the tide.

Perhaps if Osama bin Laden speaks, it might help them.

[sharkman]

How about Osama being captured. It does look bleak for them.

[jdobbin]

How about Osama being captured. It does look bleak for them.

Politics can sometimes deliver gifts. The threat of terrorism can turn things around fairly fast. With one month to go before the mid-terms, it might be the only thing to turn back the tide.

[jdobbin]

As we talked about earlier, the mid-term election strategy is to paint the Democrats as weak on security and that Democrats in power will lead to a massiave attack on the U.S.

Cheney has been making that speech every day so far in the election.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15176106/

[August1991]

I haven't followed this Foley story very much and a Newsweek article about a poll in which the exact questions are not shown is worth what it's worth.

If I understand properly, in the case of Foley, nobody had sex with anybody and the Congressman has resigned. Compare that with Clinton who had sex, lied about it and then not only refused to resign but sat through impeachment hearings.

Anyway.

I figure the Dems are trying to do to the Republicans what the Republicans have generally done better to the Dems. Willy Horton and all that.

If the Dems get away with it, then I guess they've learned how to play hardball politics. But I have more admiration for a politician or a political party that can stand up to such nonsense and still win elections on substance. Clinton seemed to do that.

In the Newsweek article, I noticed this phrase:

Foley’s disgrace certainly plays a role in Republican unpopularity: 27 percent of registered voters say the scandal and how the Republican leadership in the House handled it makes them less likely to vote for a Republican Congressional candidate; but 65 percent say it won’t make much difference in determining how they vote.

IOW, this scandal matters less than all the noise about it. It's still four weeks from voting day and the Congressional elections are more about individual races than national scandals.

[jdobbin]

I haven't followed this Foley story very much and a Newsweek article about a poll in which the exact questions are not shown is worth what it's worth.

IOW, this scandal matters less than all the noise about it. It's still four weeks from voting day and the Congressional elections are more about individual races than national scandals.

Foley's seat was not one even up for grabs. It is now because politics is local.

[August1991]

Democrats said internal polls show that the fallout from the Foley scandal is confined to half a dozen races.

...

With four weeks left in the campaign, GOP strategists, speaking on background, have begun to outline a highly gloomy view of the House election for their party.

They are all but writing off GOP open seats in Arizona, Colorado, Texas and Florida (the one previously held by Foley). Party officials said that three GOP incumbents in Indiana are trailing in private polling and that seats thought safe suddenly appear imperiled. These include the open Florida seat vacated by Rep. Katherine Harris (R-Fla.), who is running for senator. "It is unquestionably closer than we would like," said Rep. Adam Putnam (R-Fla.).

Washington Post

That's about nine seats. The article quotes the GOP as expecting losses between 7 and 30. The Democrats need 15 to get control.

The Foley story "is getting a lot of attention now, but I don't think it will have the legs to last four weeks," said Ron Carey, chairman of the Minnesota Republican Party.

My feeling too, and moreso now with events in North Korea.

[jdobbin]

The Foley story "is getting a lot of attention now, but I don't think it will have the legs to last four weeks," said Ron Carey, chairman of the Minnesota Republican Party.

My feeling too, and moreso now with events in North Korea.

The Republicans seem to be trying to limit their possible losses.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15200153/

You think North Korea will help them win both the Senate and the House?

[jdobbin]

Another Republican Congressmen under investigation with weeks till election.

This was considered a safe seat but AP is reporting that the Rep. Curt Weldon, R-Pa could be in trouble with the FBI.

http://www.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/10/14/con...s.ap/index.html

[jdobbin]

Charles Cook's latest report says that with three weeks to the election, the Republicans are facing possibly the biggest losses seen in years.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15306724/

"In the Senate, it would be a real shocker if Republicans Conrad Burns in Montana, Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania or Mike DeWine in Ohio got re-elected. Some would put Rhode Island's Lincoln Chafee on the same list, but you could at least get a debate going on that one. Besides Chafee, the GOP seats still teetering on the edge are Jim Talent in Missouri, George Allen in Virginia and the open seat in Tennessee, although it's still worth keeping an eye on Jon Kyl in Arizona if Republican turnout truly goes through the floor."

[jdobbin]

The Wall Street Journal poll says that Bush and the Republicans are at the lowest they have been since he became President.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15319792/

74% say Congress is out of touch.

http://www.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/10/18/con...poll/index.html

[jdobbin]

Newsweek poll says that Christians are losing faith in Republicans.

It won't be good if they can't get their faithful out to vote. However, the book that came out this week saying that Bush has played the Christians for fools isn't helping.

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index....;f=9&t=6470

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15356400/

And Republicans try to paint the Democrats as involved in sex phone lines. A rather dubious claim.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,223257,00.html

[GostHacked]

http://www.gop.com/

The ad that you see on the TV and online. Nothing but PURE fearmongering. jdobbin, there is a reason the senate is out of touch with things. That is not going to work much longer unless there IS another terror attack in the US. People are starting to get tired of the fearmongering.

http://democrats.org/

Nothing of that sort from what I see on the Democrats site. No fearmongering at all on the scale the republicans are at.

Stolen from another site I visit often enough.

http://www.shacknews.com/ja.zz?id=13081975

ELECTION TIME! I bet the voters are tired of all this crap as well. Again the comparison comes up to a South Park eppisode when you vote between a Giant Douche and a Turd Sandwich.

[Canadian Blue]

Democrats deserve to get a majority in both houses. The Republicans screwed up and are no longer in touch with the American public. As well alot democrats are starting to reach out to pro-life voters which is a good sign. Even Hillary Clinton have started saying that a government should try to make abortions safe, legal, and RARE."

[sharkman]

Democrats deserve to get a majority in both houses. The Republicans screwed up and are no longer in touch with the American public. As well alot democrats are starting to reach out to pro-life voters which is a good sign. Even Hillary Clinton have started saying that a government should try to make abortions safe, legal, and RARE."

Yeah, Billary trots out that little quote whenever she's trying to soften her hard left philosophy and move toward the middle. She ain't foolin anybody. What, abortions are illegal? Dangerous?

Democrats haven't earned anything. More accurately, Republicans may have earned a time out.

[jdobbin]

Democrats haven't earned anything. More accurately, Republicans may have earned a time out.

There are a lot of races out there that will have new faces. The Republicans are trying to salvage this election because of Iraq.

And the pain is not likely to stop for Republicans in 2008 unless they are out of Iraq.

[jdobbin]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15533129/

Several polls out this week. Most are saying it is over for the Republicans except for the counting.

[Riverwind]

Several polls out this week. Most are saying it is over for the Republicans except for the counting.

Never under estimate the ability of democrats to shoot themselves in the foot:

http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/..._stuck_in_iraq/

[jdobbin]

Never under estimate the ability of democrats to shoot themselves in the foot:

http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/..._stuck_in_iraq/

Certainly doesn't help things but enough to keep the Republicans from losing the House of Representatives? Unlikely. The Senate is still a close one but now there are seven seats in play.

[sharkman]

Don't look now, but the Republicans are finishing strongly. The double whammy of Saddam's verdict and yet another Kerry boner have narrowed the Dem's lead with 2 days to go. The Drudge Report has them at 47% and 43%. The Dems Pelosi has already signaled her troops with worrys of an 'honest' count. If the Dems do worse than the Main Stream Media is still shrieking about, look for claims of another stolen election.

Personally I'm glad they will use this claim for a third time. It will become plain to more and more people how hollow this claim is sounding.

[Riverwind]

Personally I'm glad they will use this claim for a third time. It will become plain to more and more people how hollow this claim is sounding.

The claim is legitimate as long as Republicans refuse to co-operate with reforms that would bring in a consistent and verifiable voting system across the county. Any politician who insists that voters should put their blind faith in electronic machines with known deficiencies deserves to have his/her legitimacy questioned.

[jdobbin]

Don't look now, but the Republicans are finishing strongly. The double whammy of Saddam's verdict and yet another Kerry boner have narrowed the Dem's lead with 2 days to go. The Drudge Report has them at 47% and 43%. The Dems Pelosi has already signaled her troops with worrys of an 'honest' count. If the Dems do worse than the Main Stream Media is still shrieking about, look for claims of another stolen election.

Personally I'm glad they will use this claim for a third time. It will become plain to more and more people how hollow this claim is sounding.

If the Democrats win, you'll say it was an honest election?

[sharkman]

Yeah, the only poll that counts is on election day. But this won't be the Dems' attitude...

The republicans just might hold onto both houses, and this is causing a meltdown among liberals. Expect Lou Dobbs to contribute a special effort to their cause.

[BubberMiley]

I wouldn't be surprised, with all their proprietary electronic voting machines, they will manage to once again steal the election. I don't think fixing the timing of the Kangaroo court verdict or resurrecting the corpse of Kerry is going to do much. Maybe more Republicans need to try meth and gay sex. It seems to work for them.

[Riverwind]

The republicans just might hold onto both houses, and this is causing a meltdown among liberals. Expect Lou Dobbs to contribute a special effort to their cause.

There are a lot of similarilities betweem the Canadian 2004 election and this one. In the 2004 Canadian election you had a group of tried politicians which had had a strangle hold on power for a decade using scare tactics to cling onto power. It took the CPC another election to get their act in gear but was eventually able to convince voters that the country needs a new direction.