Canada in 2017

[mikedavid00]

You think Canada would be absorbed all at once? As a state? As a territory? As series of states? Would they leave any parts out?

I'll jump in here to give my unsolicited opinion: the differences between the countries will become more and more meaningless until it's like the difference between states, then counties. There won't be a need to merge the countries because they'll gradually dissolve into the same entity.

It's not a matter of just the US and Canada merging, it'll be the whole world and for the better. I can tell you the economic outlook looks way better when anyone of us can work wherever in the world, setup shop wherever. Nations are already losing relevence in the big scheme of things, why bother with the nationalism anymore. What happens in Montana or Idaho or even Texas usually has a bigger influence on my life than what happens in Halifax or even Montreal/Toronto anyways. It makes more sense to draw the lines culturally and economically if you need to draw them at all.

What I can tell you with *certainy*, is that when I go shopping on the weekend or do groceries, the average language spoken in the background is something other than English.

Live in Toronto? Vancouver? Everywhere else in Canada is really English (besides Quebec of course).

Neither - I live in Mississauga outside Toronto. I find Toronto to be more English belive it or not than all the outside cities of Toronto.

And oops, guess what, 25% of Canada's Population is within 100km of Toronto.

People underestimate just how much of our country speaks a language other than English. If I really had to wager, I would say the majority of Canadians speak languages other than English and French.

[mikedavid00]

You think Canada would be absorbed all at once? As a state? As a territory? As series of states? Would they leave any parts out?

I'll jump in here to give my unsolicited opinion: the differences between the countries will become more and more meaningless until it's like the difference between states, then counties. There won't be a need to merge the countries because they'll gradually dissolve into the same entity.

It's not a matter of just the US and Canada merging, it'll be the whole world and for the better. I can tell you the economic outlook looks way better when anyone of us can work wherever in the world, setup shop wherever. Nations are already losing relevence in the big scheme of things, why bother with the nationalism anymore. What happens in Montana or Idaho or even Texas usually has a bigger influence on my life than what happens in Halifax or even Montreal/Toronto anyways. It makes more sense to draw the lines culturally and economically if you need to draw them at all.

What I can tell you with *certainy*, is that when I go shopping on the weekend or do groceries, the average language spoken in the background is something other than English.

Live in Toronto? Vancouver? Everywhere else in Canada is really English (besides Quebec of course).

Neither - I live in Mississauga outside Toronto. I find Toronto to be more English belive it or not than all the outside cities of Mississauaga.

And oops, guess what, 25% of Canada's Population is within 100km of Toronto.

People underestimate just how much of our country speaks a language other than English. If I really had to wager, I would say the majority of Canadians speak languages other than English and French.

[jdobbin]

It depends on how many immigrants we have by that time.

People who make trouble at the border and try to smuggle people in are not Canadians.

Busses of Muslims travel to the US on a weekley basis almost.

Have you seen Niagra Falls? If so you know what i'm talking about. This is indeed a threat to US security.

People don't want to come to Canada, they really want the US - the ultimate country. They are only settling for what they feel is the next best thing.

I know the U.S. is adamant about a fence with Mexico. But Canada has huge lakes, mountains and territory that would make a wall something that the Chinese wouldn't even have dared to think.

I agree we'll have to probably be more vigilant about people landing here enroute to the United States. However, one of the things that makes trade in Canada and the U.S., the biggest two way relationship is the speed by which we get it to one another. Both American and Canadian critics of passports have said that one hour delays or more will drive up costs into the billions and beyond.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

Within this decade the rise of the Asian economy will become apparent to any with the eyes to see and ears to hear. By 2007 the first cars manufactured in China will be available in North American markets. They will cost the consuming public less than half of what they are now paying for cars. The initial hit will manifest itself on the stock prices, followed by market share of production. The next effect will be a rationalization of the domestic industry. Ford will probably stop making cars, and GM will probably stop making trucks. The entire industry will contract by as much as half, hundreds of thousands will lose their jobs. As the stock prices begin to tumble on those companies involved in auto manufacturing, suppliers of raw materials to that industry will begin to feel the impact in reduced demand for production. This will slide another segment of the stock market into a spiral downward. At this point a great many mutual funds will begin to decline. An adjustment of as much as half of the current market value of stocks will plunge the economy into depression. With the markets in flux the pressure on the dollar will cause a rapid fall in currency markets. The US dollar will cease to be the standard and a new standard will have to be found.

All of this is only the begining, and it will happen within a decade.

[jdobbin]

he WTC attacks affected the US but this was about Canada. I don't think there will be terror attacks on Canadian soil. A major attack outside Canada would affect us but such an attack is an imponderable.

What was Rumsfeld's line. There are the things we know we know and then there are the things we know we don't know.

Good point though, dobbin.

----

Culture of death?

Take a look at this animated age pyramid. It stops at 2006 but you can easily imagine what will happen in 10 years. The bulge of baby-boomers will start hitting the age of higher death rates.

I have seen extreme cases of this in villages in Eastern Europe. There is a certain peacefulness to it. Older people quietly going about their lives, talking about their younger days, complaining of aches and pains and missing people have died.

Real estate?

Well, alot of people are in their high-earning years and have paid off their mortgage. For them, their house is a major investment and its high value gives them confidence. There will be increasing estate sales and I don't know how that will affect the market or more particularly the attitudes of people.

It is hard to predict where a new threat of terrorism might come from. But given that Osama bin Laden is alive and that we are in Afghanistan and there are many "soft targets" to hit here, I fear we are likely to see attempts and quite possibly a successful attack.

Ah, I see what you mean about by death rates. Japan, this year had its population decline for the first time in its recorded history. I'm not an expert on the Baby Boom aside from knowing that they refuse to take aging lying down. I suspect that we will increased demand on healthcare because that generation has out a strain on every aspect of the system as the grew up from housing to education to jobs. Centuries from now they'll still be writing about the Baby Boom and what it did in Canada and the United States.

I hear ya on real estate. A story in the States said that many markets are seeing a retreat from ever increasing house prices. You're right. A lot of Baby Boomers are going to reassess their living quarters. Many will ask "Is a four bedroom house in the suburbs right for me with all that empty space?" or "I am having trouble maintaining such a large property."

I think you might be right that there will be an increasing number of seniors moving out, seeking condos and assisted living places. Prices are harder to predict because we have had such a huge housing boom coast to coast. I think we will see prices stabilize sometime this year for houses and go up for condos.

[jdobbin]

Within this decade the rise of the Asian economy will become apparent to any with the eyes to see and ears to hear. By 2007 the first cars manufactured in China will be available in North American markets. They will cost the consuming public less than half of what they are now paying for cars. The initial hit will manifest itself on the stock prices, followed by market share of production. The next effect will be a rationalization of the domestic industry. Ford will probably stop making cars, and GM will probably stop making trucks. The entire industry will contract by as much as half, hundreds of thousands will lose their jobs. As the stock prices begin to tumble on those companies involved in auto manufacturing, suppliers of raw materials to that industry will begin to feel the impact in reduced demand for production. This will slide another segment of the stock market into a spiral downward. At this point a great many mutual funds will begin to decline. An adjustment of as much as half of the current market value of stocks will plunge the economy into depression. With the markets in flux the pressure on the dollar will cause a rapid fall in currency markets. The US dollar will cease to be the standard and a new standard will have to be found.

All of this is only the begining, and it will happen within a decade.

They found in recent years that the decline in prices paid for manufactured items such as clothes, have allowed North Americans to spend more on other things, especially housing. Many of the companies have seen their stock prices go up because they no longer manufacture but work on design instead. It's a shift in the economy that I am not an expert on. But the gist of it is that people have to shift to increasing more skilled work to increase productivity.

I don't know that resources will be go out of demand so long as Asian continues to grow. We have those reources. They don't. Many see no end in sight for the increasing prices. I'm just curious how many head offices of major resource companies we will have left. Some of our biggest companies are tripping over themselves to sell to foreign interests who promptly close the head offices in Canada to save money.

[Leafless]

I don't know that resources will be go out of demand so long as Asian continues to grow. We have those reources. They don't. Many see no end in sight for the increasing prices. I'm just curious how many head offices of major resource companies we will have left. Some of our biggest companies are tripping over themselves to sell to foreign interests who promptly close the head offices in Canada to save money.

Chinese manufacturers are presently a 'copy and paste' manufacturing nation lacking essential skills to produce quality manufactured articles.

The U.S. is still the world's TOP manufacturing country.

And guess what? You actually have Chinese manufacturing companies moving to the U.S. in the pursuit of quality skills and parts and to reduce shipping cost.

It's far from being over, at least as far as the U.S. is concerned.

http://www.howardwfrench.com/archives/2006...acturing_myths/

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail....&d_str=20060116

[jdobbin]

Chinese manufacturers are presently a 'copy and paste' manufacturing nation lacking essential skills to produce quality manufactured articles.

The U.S. is still the world's TOP manufacturing country.

And guess what? You actually have Chinese manufacturing companies moving to the U.S. in the pursuit of quality skills and parts and to reduce shipping cost.

It's far from being over, at least as far as the U.S. is concerned.

http://www.howardwfrench.com/archives/2006...acturing_myths/

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail....&d_str=20060116

I agree that Chinese companies are behind in many area of technology and design. It will be some time before they make the next jump in technology and productivity. At the moment, they can use brute force manufacturing to provide cars and other goods for their own markets. For the international markets, it is manufactured goods that there generally designed elsewhere. It is just cheaper to manufacture it in China.

[jbg]

Chinese manufacturers are presently a 'copy and paste' manufacturing nation lacking essential skills to produce quality manufactured articles.

The U.S. is still the world's TOP manufacturing country.

And guess what? You actually have Chinese manufacturing companies moving to the U.S. in the pursuit of quality skills and parts and to reduce shipping cost.

It's far from being over, at least as far as the U.S. is concerned.

http://www.howardwfrench.com/archives/2006...acturing_myths/

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail....&d_str=20060116

I agree that Chinese companies are behind in many area of technology and design. It will be some time before they make the next jump in technology and productivity. At the moment, they can use brute force manufacturing to provide cars and other goods for their own markets. For the international markets, it is manufactured goods that there generally designed elsewhere. It is just cheaper to manufacture it in China.

Not without modern infrastructure to move the goods, and not with a command economy.

[jdobbin]

Not without modern infrastructure to move the goods, and not with a command economy.

And not without reliable energy supplies.

But this isn't so much about China as it is about Canada.

In 2017, I believe there will be more mineral resources headed to China and likely to more Chinese ownership of Canadian mining companies.

[jdobbin]

So, what do people think will the the top 10 cities for population in Canada in 2017? Any changes? Any surprises?

[Jerry J. Fortin]

Just a little reminder here folks but manufacturing is the prime form of employment for the working middle class citizens. We are and will be unable to compete with the low cost labour from both India and China. We will lose hundreds of thousands of manufacturing jobs to Asia. Will this happen overnight, no. That is a far cry from saying it will not happen at all though isn't it?

With respect to shipping raw materials out of the country, that leaves us where we are now. The hewers of wood and drawers of water. As long as we retain this colonial attitude we will never rise above our present station. While Canada has numerous resources that are and will be in demand outside of North America, the same can not be said for the USA. It is true that there is an abundance of resources available to the Americans, it is just that their consumption for internal use far outstrips ours. We are able to export our natural resources because of our smaller and less industrialy developed economy.

Canada will fare far better in the changing world economy because of our natural resources and small population consumption requirments than the USA. Having said that, the US dollar will suffer. When that system of standards changes there will be severe reprecussions within the North American markets. In that regard we will be in the same boat as the Americans. In short, there are rough times ahead. My whole point was that our leadership needs to wake up and smell the coffee before its too late. If this nation waits too see what happens it will be too late to alter our direction and avoid what will become inevitable.

[geoffrey]

So, what do people think will the the top 10 cities for population in Canada in 2017? Any changes? Any surprises?

Calgary will definitely be an emerging power, already are. Head offices are following West from Ontario and Quebec for more tax freedom. Vancouver will likely adopt Chinese as an offical language and Toronto will be more immigrant than naturally born Canadian.

[jdobbin]

Just a little reminder here folks but manufacturing is the prime form of employment for the working middle class citizens. We are and will be unable to compete with the low cost labour from both India and China. We will lose hundreds of thousands of manufacturing jobs to Asia. Will this happen overnight, no. That is a far cry from saying it will not happen at all though isn't it?

I agree that many heavier manufacturing industries could reduce employment up till 2017.

I think there will be more efforts to process Canadian resources rather ship them run to other places. For example, I think there will be more agricultural processing over the years. I think we are already seeing evidence that Canada doesn't have slaughterhouse capacity when the U.S. shuts the border.

I think Canada will continue to be a base for automobile manufacturing due to our location to the U.S., the quality of the work and the access to energy supplies.

I believe one of the things that might effect China's ability to grow in leaps and bounds is energy. No energy, no breakneck growth.

[jdobbin]

Calgary will definitely be an emerging power, already are. Head offices are following West from Ontario and Quebec for more tax freedom. Vancouver will likely adopt Chinese as an offical language and Toronto will be more immigrant than naturally born Canadian.

I think Calgary will replace Ottawa as the fourth largest city in Canada by 2017. There might be changes in the 7th, 8th and 9th places as well but it will depend on immigration and birthrates. Québec could drop to 9th due to birth rates and lower immigration. Hamilton or Winnipeg might rise to 7th due to immigration.

1 Toronto CMA (Mississauga), Ontario

2 Montréal CMA (Laval), Québec

3 Vancouver CMA (Surrey), British Columbia

4 Calgary CMA, Alberta

5 Ottawa–Gatineau CMA, Ontario–Québec

6 Edmonton CMA, Alberta

7 Québec CMA (Lévis), Québec

8 Winnipeg CMA, Manitoba

9 Hamilton CMA (Burlington), Ontario

10 London CMA, Ontario

[Leafless]

5 Ottawa–Gatineau CMA, Ontario–Qué.

Why are you stating Ottawa-Gatineau is a city (in the singular sense) when you know very well Gatineau is in the province of Quebec and Ottawa is in the province of Ontario.

They are part of National Capital Region in a (federal sense) and associated with the workings of the N.C.C (National Capital Commission) whose main function is maintaining and beautifying federal assets between the two provinces separated by the Ottawa River.

I resent and am offended that my city Ottawa being referred to by you as part of a city in Quebec that harbours a population of around 50 % the wishes to separate from Canada.

Ottawa, Ontario is a municipality like any other municipality, a city totally separated from Gatineau a city in the province of Quebec.

[jdobbin]

Why are you stating Ottawa-Gatineau is a city (in the singular sense) when you know very well Gatineau is in the province of Quebec and Ottawa is in the province of Ontario.

They are part of National Capital Region in a (federal sense) and associated with the workings of the N.C.C (National Capital Commission) whose main function is maintaining and beautifying federal assets between the two provinces separated by the Ottawa River.

I resent and am offended that my city Ottawa being referred to by you as part of a city in Quebec that harbours a population of around 50 % the wishes to separate from Canada.

Ottawa, Ontario is a municipality like any other municipality, a city totally separated from Gatineau a city in the province of Quebec.

Sorry, I was going by how the census metropolitan areas work in North America. They cross state and provincial borders for comglomerations of metropolitan populations.

If we go straight by city size, Vancouver as a city falls below Winnipeg in population. Ottawa falls below many other cities as well. So, I went by CMA for the figures.

[Canuck E Stan]

Some of our biggest companies are tripping over themselves to sell to foreign interests who promptly close the head offices in Canada to save money.

"Some" Like who?

[jdobbin]

Some of our biggest companies are tripping over themselves to sell to foreign interests who promptly close the head offices in Canada to save money.

"Some" Like who?

Inco and Falconbridge.

[jdobbin]

So what do you see the environment being like in Canada in 2017?

[cybercoma]

Take a look at the number of minorities in America's big cities (see: Detroit, Atlanta, Los Angeles, etc...) and you'll get a pretty good vision of what Toronto and the other major canadian cities will become.

Automotive technology will take a leap, it has already begun. People are frustrated with the price at the pumps and there is a huge push for "different" technology in this area. Energy consumption technology as a whole will change. We already have things like compact fluorescent and LED lightbulbs for the home, this will only continue to grow into other areas where we consume the most energy. A more practical geothermal furnace system perhaps? Who knows.

Canada having been the target of a homegrown terrorist attack, being labelled as an Al-Qaeda cell (since Al-Qaeda is no longer an actual group, it's a frame of mind for people of a certain ethnicity), we'll see how important the United States is to us. Their support will be beyond what most Canadians expect. We'll actively support our military and build it up enough to become a major player in the world hunt to stop terrorism.

After a critical reduction in services to OHIP in Ontario cripples healthcare (even though Ontarians are paying hundreds if not thousands a year for it in premiums), they'll finally wake up and ask why they can't shop for services instead of paying into the provincial healthcare premium. We'll have a two-tiered system, where no person will be denied access to healthcare, but people will be allowed to supplement their public insurance by their own means.

The Irvings having gotten older will eventually release their stranglehold on the Maritimes. They'll split up the businesses and sell them off to different parties.

Internet phone service will be the norm. Wireless networks will be everywhere and you'll see the internet companies offering cellphone service because of this. Other household items will utilize these wireless networks for advanced features. Refrigerators downloading price lists from the grocery chains, your car's computer system can be monitored directly by the manufacturer without having to bring it in, etc...

I believe they'll find a cure for cancer too, or a way to manage it without all the side effects of chemo.

*shrugs*

who knows...really.

[Michael Hardner]

Auguste:

I utterly disagree.

The single most important distinction between (English) Canada and the US is that they are separate countries. Canadians do not carry the burden of being American. Canadians have all the benefits of being American but none of the responsibilities. The political life of the two countries is different.

This important distinction is not going to change. Canada will still exist in 2067 (although there may be a new constitution and a different arrangement for Quebec).

Your point doesn't diminish my point. Canada and the US may well still exist as separate entities, as do counties and provinces and states, but is there really much practical difference between them ?

The differences that we have are mostly in the mind.

I also noted that some people on this thread are discussing a reduction in manufacturing, and the rise of branch plant situations in Canada. This trend has already been going on for 15+ years, and will continue. What's more, the branch plants are closing and large American firms are leaving Canada with only tiny marketing departments. Soon, they'll be gone too.

[jdobbin]

Take a look at the number of minorities in America's big cities (see: Detroit, Atlanta, Los Angeles, etc...) and you'll get a pretty good vision of what Toronto and the other major canadian cities will become

*shrugs*

who knows...really.

There is a lot you mentioned. I'll address it a bit at a time.

I think Detroit, Atlanta has a large black population but is less diverse than say Toronto is already.

And while Los Angeles is as diverse or moreso than Toronto, it has a very reapidly growing Latino population that is influencing the look and feel of what the city will be in the future. In other words, it is becoming a dominant culture there through sheer numbers.

I don't know that Toronto has a dominant culture arriving in big numbers daily that can change the shape of diversity that the city already has now. In other words, I don't see Chinese languages becoming the third language over Indian languages because there won't be that many more Chinese over Indians settling in Toronto. Daily business will still be in English overall because it will be the common language.

In 2017, I think some of the key numbers to look for in the census in 2020 will be how many people list themselves only a "Canadian." After all, what would you call a German Canadian who marries a Chinese Canadian who have a child that marries an Indian? At some point, you call yourself a Canadian because you run out of hyphens.

[jdobbin]

Automotive technology will take a leap, it has already begun. People are frustrated with the price at the pumps and there is a huge push for "different" technology in this area. Energy consumption technology as a whole will change. We already have things like compact fluorescent and LED lightbulbs for the home, this will only continue to grow into other areas where we consume the most energy. A more practical geothermal furnace system perhaps? Who knows.

I think you're right about changes in cars. While mass transit will probably get new investment through till 2017, I expect that there will be a push for increased energy savings in vehicles. Too much money has been spent on suburban development for it to be abandoned at this point. So if oil is hugely expensive in the future, cars will have to run on something else.

Geothermal is the way to go. I can't wait to hear about about the first entire new sub-division that uses that technology.

[August1991]

Your point doesn't diminish my point. Canada and the US may well still exist as separate entities, as do counties and provinces and states, but is there really much practical difference between them ?

There is a big difference between having the "US Government" and the "Canadian Government". If I put this simply in fashion brand terms, it's the difference between Holt's and boutique. Canada is iRiver.

I also noted that some people on this thread are discussing a reduction in manufacturing, and the rise of branch plant situations in Canada. This trend has already been going on for 15+ years, and will continue. What's more, the branch plants are closing and large American firms are leaving Canada with only tiny marketing departments. Soon, they'll be gone too.

The same trend is happening in the US and it does not signal impending economic doom anymore than the arrival of cellphones does. A new trade opportunity is the same as a new technology.