Poilievre's political future on the line tonight

[Barquentine]

With what looks to me to be 'tilted ice' (in his favour) PP needs an extremely good vote count tonight.

What will the aftermath be?

If he doesn't get 75% plus, will he resign? Probabaly not.

If he wins will there be more floor-crossers? Very possible.

With PP at the helm, would the Cons want a quick election? Would the Libs? No and No.

Can this leopard change his spots to get more Canadians to like and trust him? He'll try, but No.

Will the convention be basically an Alberta forum? Yeah.

Does anybody else want the job at this point? No.

Will they allow delegates to hold referendum signs? They'll ask them not to but some will disobey.

Instead of jellybeans in a jar, lets guess how many of the 4100 (or  roughly 2,500, depending on the source) delegates will sport Cowboy hats. I'm guessing 42%.

Edited January 30 by Barquentine
adding text

[John Stone]

........... gifted political hack ......... problem  is he scares the kids.

[John Johnston]

2 minutes ago, John Stone said:

........... gifted political hack ......... problem  is he scares the kids.

The problem is that he is just not a very likeable person. Half of the battle to winning a federal election is being personable and knowledgeable.  It's not enough in Canada to just throw red meat at your base. 

[John Stone]

6 minutes ago, John Johnston said:

The problem is that he is just not a very likeable person. Half of the battle to winning a federal election is being personable and knowledgeable.  It's not enough in Canada to just throw red meat at your base. 

......... the guy will never be PM ........ love him in opposition. 

The Base is the oxygen for becoming party leader. 

[John Johnston]

True enough. 

[ExFlyer]

If he remains leader, he can be the first and only leader ever to lose the elections 3 times...LOL

• Mark Carney (Liberal): Leads with approximately 48% to 53% support in preferred Prime Minister polling. His popularity is bolstered by his perceived ability to handle international trade tensions and the economy.
• Pierre Poilievre (Conservative): Polling between 25% and 28% for best Prime Minister. While his personal numbers trail Carney's, he remains the dominant choice among younger voters and in the Prairies.
• 

Edited January 30 by ExFlyer

[TreeBeard]

3 hours ago, Barquentine said:

If he wins will there be more floor-crossers? Very possible.

This will be his more likely demise.  More floor crossers would make him a lame duck and probably cause a cabinet revolt.  

I put the odds at 30% that this happens. 

3 hours ago, Barquentine said:

If he doesn't get 75% plus

Odds of him getting <75% is 1 in 10.  He’ll easily surpass that threshold. 

[ironstone]

5 hours ago, John Johnston said:

The problem is that he is just not a very likeable person. Half of the battle to winning a federal election is being personable and knowledgeable.  It's not enough in Canada to just throw red meat at your base. 

His predecessors were arguably more likeable but they got fewer votes.

It's a pity that so many Canadians care more about likeability than ability in political leaders. Likeability of Poilievre is more of an issue with leftist voters than the mediocre record of this government over ten years.

[John Johnston]

44 minutes ago, ironstone said:

His predecessors were arguably more likeable but they got fewer votes.

It's a pity that so many Canadians care more about likeability than ability in political leaders. Likeability of Poilievre is more of an issue with leftist voters than the mediocre record of this government over ten years.

Perhaps. However people are tired of the angry man schtick. I think people would prefer more pragmatism and less time spent worrying other people in politics.