War Gaming Taiwan, American defeat?

[paxamericana]

Long term no, but short term it would be bloody. 

Opening Act 1

In the first 2 hours of when the shooting starts, we anticipate 12000 dead Sailors and marines, 2 carrier battle groups sunk to the bottom of the pacific ocean. We do anticipate a few ballistic missle submarine nearby able to strike back but they are a token resistance as they do not carry enough munition to inflict sustained combat losses on the enemy. US army command would launch anti ship missle from their land bases if not already actively engaged. Nearby airbases in Guam and Japan are under active missle attack by the Chinese Rocket Force and unable to launch aircraft.

Opening Act 2

China could also choose to blockade Taiwan in the hopes of not drawing the US into direct conflict. To do so they would envolope Taiwan during a training exercise and establish a no fly zone on the island. In combination with the Chinese fishing militia force, coast gaurd and navy, Taiwan would be blocked off from the rest of the world. While it would be difficult for the Chinese millitary to block all communication to the outside wolrd this will be on their top priorities. This assumes that the Taiwanese airforce/millitary are not able or willing to break the blockade. 

 

 

Edited September 5, 2025 by paxamericana
This assumes Chinese weapons procurement were not using Temu

[SpankyMcFarland]

If China continues under CCP rule it will have to take Taiwan at some point. The appalling reality of Han Chinese living prosperous and free lives next door will be too much to tolerate indefinitely. We can only hope the bloody nose they got in Vietnam all those years ago will deter them for a few more decades. 

[August1991]

Fer gawdsakes, no.

My Canadian grand-children are not going to die so Taiwan is different from China.

If the Chinese want Taiwan, let them have it.

If the Russians want Crimea, let them have it.

====

We defeated the Soviets, Communists, Maoists, Socialists.

Let's get along.

[CdnFox]

1 hour ago, August1991 said:

Fer gawdsakes, no.

My Canadian grand-children are not going to die so Taiwan is different from China.

If the Chinese want Taiwan, let them have it.

If the Russians want Crimea, let them have it.

====

We defeated the Soviets, Communists, Maoists, Socialists.

Let's get along.

Doing so would give china access to some very advanced computer chip technology which would seriously improve their weapons capabilities and long-range missiles.

If we don't fight the war over there, sooner or later we'll be fighting it over here

[paxamericana]

16 hours ago, August1991 said:

If the Chinese want Taiwan, let them have it.

If the Russians want Crimea, let them have it.

It's not America that worries about this issue so much as the Japanese for good reason. Japan is a seafaring nation that heavily relies on access to the South China sea for trade. Additionaly Giving China, blue water access is not in the American Strategic interest since the 1890. The goal then was to box in Japan which is also the case today with China. And by America I also mean Canadian. American interests are Canadian interests as well okay. The American, Japanese, Australian, Philippines, Indonesian interests are all aligned. Get with the program Canucks.

Edited October 1, 2025 by paxamericana

[CdnFox]

49 minutes ago, paxamericana said:

It's not America that worries about this issue so much as the Japanese for good reason. Japan is a seafaring nation that heavily relies on access to the South China sea for trade. Additionaly Giving China, blue water access is not in the American Strategic interest since the 1890. The goal then was to box in Japan which is also the case today with China. And by America I also mean Canadian. American interests are Canadian interests as well okay. The American, Japanese, Australian, Philippines, Indonesian interests are all aligned. Get with the program Canucks.

What, you want us to send our remaining soldiers to defend tiwan?  BOTH of them??

[paxamericana]

52 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

What, you want us to send our remaining soldiers to defend tiwan?  BOTH of them??

No Canada just need to pay it's defense bill. 

[CdnFox]

17 minutes ago, paxamericana said:

No Canada just need to pay it's defense bill. 

Well we are but these days we'll be pointing most of those guns south, we won't have any to spare for tiawan. 

[paxamericana]

8 hours ago, CdnFox said:

Well we are but these days we'll be pointing most of those guns south, we won't have any to spare for tiawan. 

You mean the same guns we sold to your two remaining soldiers?

[CdnFox]

14 minutes ago, paxamericana said:

You mean the same guns we sold to your two remaining soldiers?

Or course  We made them buy their own, the military here doesn't have THAT kind of budget. 

 

(sadly one chose the ruger 10/22. I mean it's nice and all with the banana mag and everything but i kind of wish he'd done a little more googling. His searches said that .223 was a  common military cartidge and he figured .22 was close enough)

Edited October 2, 2025 by CdnFox

[SpankyMcFarland]

On 9/30/2025 at 9:33 PM, August1991 said:

Fer gawdsakes, no.

My Canadian grand-children are not going to die so Taiwan is different from China.

If the Chinese want Taiwan, let them have it.

If the Russians want Crimea, let them have it.

====

We defeated the Soviets, Communists, Maoists, Socialists.

Let's get along.

Taiwan and Crimea are very different propositions. The world’s most advanced computer chips are made in Taiwan. Losing it to the PRC would also endanger Japan and, by extension, South Korea. 

[SpankyMcFarland]

Look around you. China is the workshop of the world. It makes most of the drones and the ships and damn near everything else. Cell phones, robots, even AI? No problem, China can do it. America was in that position once - during and after WWII. The Russians did the fighting but the Americans supplied them. No longer. I don’t see how America could sustain a long, conventional war against such a prodigiously productive country. Any initial advantage would disappear as Germany’s did against the Soviet Union and its allies. 

Edited October 29, 2025 by SpankyMcFarland

[CdnFox]

1 hour ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

Look around you. China is the workshop of the world. It makes most of the drones and the ships and damn near everything else. Cell phones, robots, even AI? No problem, China can do it. America was in that position once - during and after WWII. The Russians did the fighting but the Americans supplied them. No longer. I don’t see how America could sustain a long, conventional war against such a prodigiously productive country. Any initial advantage would disappear as Germany’s did against the Soviet Union and its allies. 

The technology gap is just too huge. 

If we're using world war II comparisons the Japanese found out the hard way but trying to overwhelm a technologically superior force with numbers doesn't work. Guadalcanal comes to mind, Human wave tactics feared poorly against superior Firepower.

You can win it's your numbers alone, has the Russians used to say quantity has a quality all of its own. But you're underestimating America's capability to industrialize produce equipment that equipment is of such quality and technological advancement that the number of planes were tanks for ships that the Chinese would have to produce in order to overwhelm it simply is beyond their capacity right now.

I understand that the Chinese are gaining in technology and ability but they are still vastly behind. My understanding is one of the reasons they want Taiwan in the first place is they don't have access to the advanced military chips produced there.

[SpankyMcFarland]

On 10/29/2025 at 5:09 AM, CdnFox said:

The technology gap is just too huge. 

If we're using world war II comparisons the Japanese found out the hard way but trying to overwhelm a technologically superior force with numbers doesn't work. Guadalcanal comes to mind, Human wave tactics feared poorly against superior Firepower.

You can win it's your numbers alone, has the Russians used to say quantity has a quality all of its own. But you're underestimating America's capability to industrialize produce equipment that equipment is of such quality and technological advancement that the number of planes were tanks for ships that the Chinese would have to produce in order to overwhelm it simply is beyond their capacity right now.

I understand that the Chinese are gaining in technology and ability but they are still vastly behind. My understanding is one of the reasons they want Taiwan in the first place is they don't have access to the advanced military chips produced there.

I am sure Xi has studied that parallel closely. The Japanese were behind America in technological advancement and had a smaller industrial base. This is more like multiple Japans. In nearly every research field, Chinese scientists, increasingly based in China, are making great strides. They are way beyond plastic tat for Walmart. The number of elite engineers, scientists and entrepreneurs in the country is staggering. In many sectors they have caught up and in some they are already ahead. The DeepSeek and TikTok stories should be a wake up call to everybody. These transitions are often not apparent until they are conspicuous and way too late to do anything about, particularly in a country as opaque to outsiders as China. Don’t be misled by the poverty of the country overall or the terrible incompetence of its tyrannical government. China’s workers have succeeded despite these formidable obstacles. 

China may not even have to go to war to take Taiwan. For example, America needs to start rare earth mining in earnest pronto and ask its remaining friends to do the same. That particular weapon is by no means permanently off the table no matter what poor old Trump likes to think after this week. And then there are America’s financial vulnerabilities. We have awakened a sleeping giant and America will need all the help it can muster to contain this challenge. It is also my hope that Chinese workers will start raising their voices to demand a fairer share of the immense wealth they have created. Ironically, their ‘socialist’ government has seriously short-changed them in that regard. At this stage, Xi’s obituary would be an item read with considerable relief by many. 

The thing is that I don’t want to be right about this. A Xi-run China running the world and entering Sauron-like into every tiny matter in every country would be a nightmare. But I believe it’s quite likely. 
 

 

Edited October 31, 2025 by SpankyMcFarland

[CdnFox]

13 hours ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

I am sure Xi has studied that parallel closely. The Japanese were behind America in technological advancement and had a smaller industrial base. This is more like multiple Japans. In nearly every research field, Chinese scientists, increasingly based in China, are making great strides. They are way beyond plastic tat for Walmart. The number of elite engineers, scientists and entrepreneurs in the country is staggering. In many sectors they have caught up and in some they are already ahead. The DeepSeek and TikTok stories should be a wake up call to everybody. These transitions are often not apparent until they are conspicuous and way too late to do anything about, particularly in a country as opaque to outsiders as China. Don’t be misled by the poverty of the country overall or the terrible incompetence of its tyrannical government. China’s workers have succeeded despite these formidable obstacles. 

China may not even have to go to war to take Taiwan. For example, America needs to start rare earth mining in earnest pronto and ask its remaining friends to do the same. That particular weapon is by no means permanently off the table no matter what poor old Trump likes to think after this week. And then there are America’s financial vulnerabilities. We have awakened a sleeping giant and America will need all the help it can muster to contain this challenge. It is also my hope that Chinese workers will start raising their voices to demand a fairer share of the immense wealth they have created. Ironically, their ‘socialist’ government has seriously short-changed them in that regard. At this stage, Xi’s obituary would be an item read with considerable relief by many. 

The thing is that I don’t want to be right about this. A Xi-run China running the world and entering Sauron-like into every tiny matter in every country would be a nightmare. But I believe it’s quite likely. 
 

 

The military technology just isn't there yet. A direct confrontation with the US military ends with a Chinese loss if it continues for more than an extremely short  time.  That's just the way it is. 

So the Chinese strategy is going to be more along the lines of the political methods you mentioned. If we're talking military they would seek to rush in and immediately overwhelm the forces protecting tiawan and land their forces there (possibly some pre positioned) and take control or near control and then say "hey america, we're already in control and you MIGHT be able to take it back and win, sure, but it'll cost you tens of thousands of your own men and trillions in ships and other costs, and we'll stop shipping you any of the stuff you need and at the end of the day, there's always nukes.  Maybe let us have this one and we'll work something out. 

Or just straight political pressure as you mentioned. The threat of war and loss of American life may be enough to put china in a good bargaining position

 

[SpankyMcFarland]

This video gives me some comfort for the short-term future.

However, I fear China is like the Soviet Union in 1941 or the North in 1861. Better leaders will be found in the army as the war progresses. China’s scale is the fundamental problem. Nobody has faced a manufacturing giant quite like this. In a longer war an opponent would run the risk of running out of drones and the rest. 

[August1991]

On 9/30/2025 at 9:31 PM, CdnFox said:

Doing so would give china access to some very advanced computer chip technology which would seriously improve their weapons capabilities and long-range missiles.

If we don't fight the war over there, sooner or later we'll be fighting it over here

What war? We defeated the Soviets in 1989 or so.

====

Taiwan is more a Chinese island, than Newfoundland is a part of Canada.

 

[CdnFox]

15 minutes ago, August1991 said:

What war? We defeated the Soviets in 1989 or so.

 

 

Were you unaware that there is a potential conflict between china and North America regarding Taiwan?

If you don't even understand the basics of the conversation I'm afraid you're not able to participate in it. Go read a book

[August1991]

On 11/4/2025 at 12:11 AM, CdnFox said:

Were you unaware that there is a potential conflict between china and North America regarding Taiwan?

If you don't even understand the basics of the conversation I'm afraid you're not able to participate in it. Go read a book

Nowadays? The 2020s?

In the 1980s, CdnFox, post 1940s, Nixon/Truman were facing Soviets, world domination.

===

Nowadays, we in the west only have to face Marxist academics and municipal politicians in large cities.

[August1991]

Immigration?

I tend to agree with Biden. America is a large country.

Like Canada.

 

[CdnFox]

12 hours ago, August1991 said:

Nowadays? The 2020s?

Yes, as in right this very second. 

Quote

In the 1980s, CdnFox, post 1940s, Nixon/Truman were facing Soviets, world domination.

And?

Quote

Nowadays, we in the west only have to face Marxist academics and municipal politicians in large cities.

And china.  Who badly wants to take over taiwan and has made several aggressive moves in that regard.

 

[August1991]

On 11/6/2025 at 2:37 PM, CdnFox said:

Yes, as in right this very second. 

And?

And china.  Who badly wants to take over taiwan and has made several aggressive moves in that regard.

 

I am no nationalist.

But I perfectly understand why Beijing wants to control Taiwan.

=====

We live in a new world: similar to the 1910s.

[CdnFox]

1 hour ago, August1991 said:

I am no nationalist.

But I perfectly understand why Beijing wants to control Taiwan.

 

It's not complicated.

Geographically they consider it to be within their sphere of influence.

Physically it provides access to blue water ports that they feel they lack.

Strategically it would place military assets close to the Philippines which is controlled by the united states and act as a bit of a fortress against any American aggression

Ethnically it's chinese, and that's a big deal for china who argues there is only "one china" and all chinese people should be under their control, there shouldn't be any 'second china' that some chinese might feel loyal and beholden to. 

it's the home of chip building that they desperately need to hyperstart their economy. And not just any computer chips but specifically military grade extremely advanced difficult to produce trips that cannot be made in china. Getting their hands on that technology would be a game changer.

Any one of those reasons would be enough in their books. All three makes it a very tempting target

[John Stone]

On 11/7/2025 at 10:46 PM, CdnFox said:

It's not complicated.

Geographically they consider it to be within their sphere of influence.

Physically it provides access to blue water ports that they feel they lack.

Strategically it would place military assets close to the Philippines which is controlled by the united states and act as a bit of a fortress against any American aggression

Ethnically it's chinese, and that's a big deal for china who argues there is only "one china" and all chinese people should be under their control, there shouldn't be any 'second china' that some chinese might feel loyal and beholden to. 

it's the home of chip building that they desperately need to hyperstart their economy. And not just any computer chips but specifically military grade extremely advanced difficult to produce trips that cannot be made in china. Getting their hands on that technology would be a game changer.

Any one of those reasons would be enough in their books. All three makes it a very tempting target

You really need to go back in history ........... post WWII (Chiang Kai-shek)  to understand the Chinese argument re: Taiwan. Incidentally Pierre Trudeau was on of the first Western leaders to recognize the PRC in 1970.  

But that aside, China claims sovereignty over the entire  South China Sea and beyond, so-called '9 Dash Line' - untold riches (minerals / oil)  under the sea, not to mention the strategic value of controlling shipping thru it. Whenever China makes the claim the USN would plow a battle group thru it - infuriating. Not any more - Americans claim freedom of the seas and international tribunals agree. 

[SpankyMcFarland]

Here’s a worrying development. Chinese leaders are not famous for phoning foreigners on any subject.

Quote

 

Chinese leader Xi Jinping has told Donald Trump that Beijing’s claims to Taiwan remain unchanged, in a phone call that came amid rising tensions over the self-governing island.

Xi told Trump on Monday that Taiwan’s return to China was an “integral part of the postwar international order” forged in the joint US-China fight against “fascism and militarism”, according to the Chinese foreign ministry.

China claims Taiwan as part of its territory and has vowed to annex it, by force if necessary. Taiwan’s democratically elected government strongly rejects China’s stance.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/nov/25/china-taiwan-xi-jinping-call-with-donald-trump