Earth's Energy Imbalance More Than Doubled in Recent Decades says peer reviewed journal RESEARCH

[robosmith]

Earth's Energy Imbalance More Than Doubled in Recent Decades says peer reviewed journal RESEARCH

Quote

Abstract

Global warming results from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions which upset the delicate balance between the incoming sunlight, and the reflected and emitted radiation from Earth. The imbalance leads to energy accumulation in the atmosphere, oceans and land, and melting of the cryosphere, resulting in increasing temperatures, rising sea levels, and more extreme weather around the globe. Despite the fundamental role of the energy imbalance in regulating the climate system, as known to humanity for more than two centuries, our capacity to observe it is rapidly deteriorating as satellites are being decommissioned.

Key Points

 

• Earth's energy imbalance more than doubled in recent decades

• The large trend has taken us by surprise, and as a community we should strive to understand the underlying causes

• Our capability to observe the Earth's energy imbalance and budget terms is threatened as satellites are decommissioned

 

Plain Language Summary

Global warming is caused by the imbalance between the incoming radiation from the Sun and the reflected and outgoing infrared radiation from the Earth. The imbalance leads to energy accumulation in the atmosphere, oceans and land, and melting of the cryosphere, resulting in increasing temperatures, rising sea levels, and more extreme weather around the globe according the the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Observations from space of the energy imbalance shows that it is rising much faster than expected, and in 2023 it reached values two times higher than the best estimate from IPCC. We argue that we must strive to better understand this fundamental change in Earth's climate state, and ensure our capacity to monitor it in the future.

Trump is defunding climate research as a SHORT TERM service to the fossil fuel industry. The rest of us and our children WILL PAY THAT PRICE.

[robosmith]

gnat girl is sad that she cannot understand the SCIENCE. LMAO

[Legato]

1 hour ago, robosmith said:

gnat girl is sad that she cannot understand the SCIENCE. LMAO

Give us the formulae. so we can all understand.

[User]

5 hours ago, robosmith said:

gnat girl is sad that she cannot understand the SCIENCE. LMAO

Sure... until we start talking about "THE SCIENCE!" TM about how boys can't actually be girls just because they say they are... 

Then you don't give a crap about "THE SCIENCE!" TM

[robosmith]

4 hours ago, Legato said:

Give us the formulae. so we can all understand.

Get your PhD first or you won't understand the formula.

[gatomontes99]

1 hour ago, robosmith said:

Get your PhD first or you won't understand the formula.

Lies. It doesn't require a P.h.D. to understand a formula. 

[robosmith]

1 hour ago, gatomontes99 said:

Lies. It doesn't require a P.h.D. to understand a formula. 

It does when it's about a very complex Earth wide phenomena.

Do you know how much heat is being stored in the oceans due to GHG and how long that will last until all the ice melts?

[User]

2 minutes ago, robosmith said:

It does when it's about a very complex Earth wide phenomena.

Do you know how much heat is being stored in the oceans due to GHG and how long that will last until all the ice melts?

You can't even be honest about something as simple as a boy can't become a girl... 

 

[Legato]

12 hours ago, robosmith said:

Get your PhD first or you won't understand the formula.

Then send me the test questions.

[robosmith]

Quantifying the acceleration of multidecadal global sea surface warming driven by Earth’s energy imbalance

Quote

Abstract

Global mean sea surface temperature (GMSST) is a fundamental diagnostic of ongoing climate change, yet there is incomplete understanding of multi-decadal changes in warming rate and year-to-year variability. Exploiting satellite observations since 1985 and a statistical model incorporating drivers of variability and change, we identify an increasing rate of rise in GMSST. This accelerating ocean surface warming is physically linked to an upward trend in Earth’s energy imbalance (EEI). We quantify that GMSST has increased by 0.54  0.07 K for each GJ m^–2 of accumulated energy, equivalent to 0.17 ± 0.02 K decade^‒1 (W m^‒2)^‒1. Using the statistical model to isolate the trend from interannual variability, the underlying rate of change of GMSST rises in proportion with Earth’s energy accumulation from 0.06 K decade^–1 during 1985–89 to 0.27 K decade^–1 for 2019–23. While variability associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation triggered the exceptionally high GMSSTs of 2023 and early 2024, 44% (90% confidence interval: 35%–52%) of the +0.22 K difference in GMSST between the peak of the 2023/24 event and that of the 2015/16 event is unexplained unless the acceleration of the GMSST trend is accounted for. Applying indicative future scenarios of EEI based on recent trends, GMSST increases are likely to be faster than would be expected from linear extrapolation of the past four decades. Our results provide observational evidence that the GMSST increase inferred over the past 40 years will likely be exceeded within the next 20 years. Policy makers and wider society should be aware that the rate of global warming over recent decades is a poor guide to the faster change that is likely over the decades to come, underscoring the urgency of deep reductions in fossil-fuel burning.

6. Conclusions

Linear extrapolation of the near-GMSST trend of the past four decades is not a reliable basis for expectations of future warming. When interannual variability of GMSST over the past 4 decades is adequately parameterised, an acceleration in the warming trend (a quadratic term) is statistically unambiguous.

Parameterising the GMSST trend as proportional to the EEA is most statistically efficient. This parameterisation has a physical interpretation, that over these decades a near-constant fraction of the EEA has accumulated in the mixed layer, correlating well with SST on decadal timescales. The proportionality between GMSST and EEA is 0.17  K decade^–1 W^–1 m². This model explains acceleration in the GMSST as a consequence of the increase in EEI observed over the period.

Using this EEA-based model for GMSST, the record-breaking GMSSTs for 2023 and 2024 can largely be explained by the usual GMSST responses to the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the solar cycle, superimposed on the accelerating trend in response to rising EEI. Without recognising the EEA-driven acceleration, it is difficult to account for ∼0.1 K of the 0.22 K difference in GMSST between the peak months of the 2023/24 El Niño compared to the 2015/16 El Niño.

The EEA-based model for GMSST reflects the EEI circumstances of the past 40 years. The partitioning of energy accumulation within the ocean is dynamic, even on decadal scales, and should be expected to change in future when mitigation policies reverse (hopefully) the upward trend in EEI. Nevertheless, the model can be used to illustrate how GMSST might evolve in the next few decades with reasonable validity.

The key conclusion is that we should not condition our expectations for the rate of surface ocean warming (and therefore of global warming) on linear extrapolation of the GMSST of recent decades. If the EEI trends of recent decades are a guide to the future, the 0.53 K GMSST increase seen over the past 40 years will likely be exceeded in the next 20 years, and by a significant margin in the absence of successful climate mitigation. The warming trend found by this data-driven analysis is faster than model-based estimates applying current policy measures [44], consistent with observed EEI being greater than modelled. It is therefore critical to monitor EEI and to critique the realism of simulated climate projections. Wider society and policy makers should be aware that the rate of global warming over the last four decades is not a guide for the coming decades, otherwise there is a danger of underestimating the urgency of deep reductions in fossil fuel burning.

 

 

 

Edited September 2, 2025 by robosmith

[Legato]

24 minutes ago, robosmith said:

Quantifying the acceleration of multidecadal global sea surface warming driven by Earth’s energy imbalance

 

 

 

Was walking over to the marina this morning when there was a loud thump.

I looked up to see which part of the sky had fallen, it was all there so must have been/bean something else.

[LinkSoul60]

4 minutes ago, Legato said:

Was walking over to the marina this morning when there was a loud thump.

I looked up to see which part of the sky had fallen, it was all there so must have been/bean something else.

My earlier comment validated in spades....   

 

[Legato]

3 minutes ago, LinkSoul60 said:

My earlier comment validated in spades....   

 

Try clubs next time. You are no diamond.

[Nationalist]

Poor @robosmith and the climate weenies.

Fossil fuels are being deregulated and "drill baby drill" is the order of the day.

You lost...yet again.

Gee...do ya sort o' think a compromise might have been a good idea when it was available?

Now it's too late. M0rons.

[LinkSoul60]

2 minutes ago, Nationalist said:

Poor @robosmith and the climate weenies.

Fossil fuels are being deregulated and "drill baby drill" is the order of the day.

You lost...yet again.

Gee...do ya sort o' think a compromise might have been a good idea when it was available?

Now it's too late. M0rons.

Sad commentary Nationalist.

Hopefully you have no legacy of children you're leaving behind that will have to deal with your ignorance and disregard of the climate.

[Nationalist]

6 minutes ago, LinkSoul60 said:

Sad commentary Nationalist.

Hopefully you have no legacy of children you're leaving behind that will have to deal with your ignorance and disregard of the climate.

I have 3 and they'd be much better off with lower inflation and less lies.

The world is not ending...the sky is not falling...sorry to spoil your party.

Edited September 2, 2025 by Nationalist

[robosmith]

8 minutes ago, Nationalist said:

I have 3 and they'd be much better off with lower inflation and less lies.

The world is not ending...the sky is not falling...sorry to spoil your party.

No one but you MAGA CULT are claiming "the sky is falling." But it is getting hotter every year.

Hot air rises, not falls, you (don't) know. LMAO

[Nationalist]

1 minute ago, robosmith said:

No one but you MAGA CULT are claiming "the sky is falling." But it is getting hotter every year.

Hot air rises, not falls, you (don't) know. LMAO

What a goof.

[robosmith]

5 minutes ago, Nationalist said:

What a goof.

Thanks for confirming you STILL GOT BUPKIS LMAO

[Nationalist]

7 minutes ago, robosmith said:

Thanks for confirming you STILL GOT BUPKIS LMAO

No goof. Im just tired of your constant whining and lying.

Your fear-mongering days are over Sweetie. Nobody pays attention except to laugh in your face.

[LinkSoul60]

36 minutes ago, Nationalist said:

I have 3 and they'd be much better off with lower inflation and less lies.

The world is not ending...the sky is not falling...sorry to spoil your party.

No, it's not going to end in our time.  Might in theirs but not ours.  The younger generation is also generally more concerned about the climate.  Are they?

The inflation they're living with has little to do with a transition to cleaner energy.  In fact they're probably paying more for food and goods because of the impacts of climate change.  No party to spoil, except for theirs.  

[Nationalist]

5 minutes ago, LinkSoul60 said:

No, it's not going to end in our time.  Might in theirs but not ours.  The younger generation is also generally more concerned about the climate.  Are they?

The inflation they're living with has little to do with a transition to cleaner energy.  In fact they're probably paying more for food and goods because of the impacts of climate change.  No party to spoil, except for theirs.  

No they are not. And the war on fossil fuels is costing hundreds of billions. 

https://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/fossil-fuels/price-tag-for-bidens-war-on-oil-and-gas/

That's from 2023. The effects are still there. Its pure insanity.

[LinkSoul60]

14 minutes ago, Nationalist said:

No they are not. And the war on fossil fuels is costing hundreds of billions. 

https://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/fossil-fuels/price-tag-for-bidens-war-on-oil-and-gas/

That's from 2023. The effects are still there. Its pure insanity.

It might cost more to get out of the ground in some cases, but the US does not set oil prices.  Oil prices are set in the global markets driven by supply and demand.  They fluctuate with uncertainty over economies, geopolitical events, weather events and refinery issues that impact supply.

And yes, climate change has a direct impact of the cost of food and supply chains that are impacted because of.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-01173-x

https://greencentralbanking.com/2025/02/19/extreme-weather-food-prices-2025/

[Nationalist]

42 minutes ago, LinkSoul60 said:

It might cost more to get out of the ground in some cases, but the US does not set oil prices.  Oil prices are set in the global markets driven by supply and demand.  They fluctuate with uncertainty over economies, geopolitical events, weather events and refinery issues that impact supply.

And yes, climate change has a direct impact of the cost of food and supply chains that are impacted because of.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-01173-x

https://greencentralbanking.com/2025/02/19/extreme-weather-food-prices-2025/

Dude...it's not just the US. This green destruction is global.

You can agree till your fingers turn blue but, nothing you say can refute the immense cost of this chickenshit.

As I have said...many many times...we can research "green technology" and make full use of our current technology, at the same time. But no...the climate religion brooks no compromise. Its your way or your way.

Well...I got news for you. Fossil fuels are now being unchained. All over the world we see nations relaxing and even reversing course. Why? Because actions made in panic are generally what is known as "bad ideas".

Edited September 3, 2025 by Nationalist

[LinkSoul60]

10 minutes ago, Nationalist said:

Dude...it's not just the US. This green destruction is global.

You can agree till your fingers turn blue but, nothing you say can refute the immense cost of this chickenshit.

As I have said...many many times...we can research "green technology" and make full use of our current technology, at the same time. But no...the climate religion brooks no compromise. Its your way or your way.

Well...I got news for you. Fossil fuels are now being unchained. All over the world we see nations relaxing and even reversing course. Why? Because actions made in panic are generally what is known as "bad ideas".

lol... much to your delight fossil fuels will be around after we're gone but the facts are that energy will continue to evolve to cleaner forms of costs and all.  The world has been investing this way for a decade and it will continue to outpace investments in oil and coal so any associated costs are going to be a fact of life. 

Forget the drill baby drill unchained stuff. That's nothing more than Trump talk for his faithful.  The US and Canada have been producing record production the last 4 years which hasn't brought inflation down. The price is only down today because of a global economic slowdown and lower demand.