Carney 2025 vs Hillary 2016: Different

[August1991]

In 2016, everyone thought that Clinton would win. All the polls predicted her win.

She lost.

In 2025, everyone thinks Carney will win. All the polls predict it.

I think he will win, but maybe only a minority.

[August1991]

In Canada, for better or worse, people like Hillary Clinton and Kamala Harris are still around in parliament to argue.

Diefenbaker, Churchill.

Edited April 18 by August1991

[Michael Hardner]

7 hours ago, August1991 said:

In 2016, everyone thought that Clinton would win. All the polls predicted her win.

She lost.

In 2025, everyone thinks Carney will win. All the polls predict it.

I think he will win, but maybe only a minority.

Why do you think the polls get it wrong so often lately?

[WestCanMan]

3 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

Why do you think the polls get it wrong so often lately?

I think you mean "Why do the polls that are cited by the MSM consistently favour the party that gives the MSM billions of taxpayer dollars right before every election?" 

 

(In fairness, the Liberal government only used to give the MSM hundreds of millions of dollars before each election. It's only in the 2025 election cycle that they gave the MSM over a billion dollars. Can a billion dollars even buy good press? Can MSM objectivity and integrity be thwarted by money? Tune into CBC to find out.) 

[Michael Hardner]

28 minutes ago, WestCanMan said:

1. I think you mean "Why do the polls that are cited by the MSM consistently favour the party that gives the MSM billions of taxpayer dollars right before every election?" 

2. (In fairness, the Liberal government only used to give the MSM hundreds of millions of dollars before each election. It's only in the 2025 election cycle that they gave the MSM over a billion dollars. Can a billion dollars even buy good press? Can MSM objectivity and integrity be thwarted by money? Tune into CBC to find out.) 

1. Conspiracy Theory.  Find me a valid poll that receives this neglect you refer to.  Most people use aggregate polls anyway so it comes out in the wash.  And the conventional Canadian aggregate poll was pretty accurate last time, I looked.

2.  Cite ?  

Sorry... but Poilievre was in super-majority territory a few scant months ago.  What happened to the bought-off pollsters ?

It doesn't fly... there's no conspiracy in polling... let's just move past this...

[WestCanMan]

31 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

1. Conspiracy Theory.  Find me a valid poll that receives this neglect you refer to.  Most people use aggregate polls anyway so it comes out in the wash.  And the conventional Canadian aggregate poll was pretty accurate last time, I looked.

Find me a federal poll from the last 3 elections that was correct...

The CPC won the popular vote in the last two elections and the LPOC was supposed to be more popular. 

CBC and CTV News relied heavily on that polling to back every one of their narratives about how "No one cares about Trudeau's scandal, look at the polls"

IT'S A FACT THAT OUR GOV'T GIVES OUT HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS OF DOLLARS BEFORE EVERY ELECTION NOW, JUST TO THE MEDIA. 

You know how much the CBC lies, and how biased they are. What makes you think they would look for legitimate polls? That's stupid. 

Quote

Cite?

There was no exact number given, but the CBC is getting their budget "nearly doubled", and their budget is $1.3B.

https://nationalpost.com/news/liberals-propose-double-cbc-funding

Look at the date. Feb 25, 2025. How close is that to the Federal election, MH? Is that not well within 'bribery' territory?

The CBC stands to gain billions of taxpayer dollars if the Libs win:

• The minister did not specify, however, the exact amount the federal government would add to the CBC’s budget. Currently, Ottawa spends about $1.38 billion on its public broadcaster,

Quote

Sorry... but Poilievre was in super-majority territory a few scant months ago.  What happened to the bought-off pollsters ?

Was the election a few scant months ago?

No.

So how many seats did the CPC win based on their big lead "a few scant months ago"?

Zero.

So pollsters said all that but it never cost the Libs a single vote in the process. 

It also gave pollsters a chance to say "OMG LOOK AT ALL THE LIBS' MOMENTUM!!" heading into the polls. 

Now the Libs and Carney are pretending to be a completely different group, and CBC never says "it's all the exact same clowns, and the head clown was an adviser to the last head clown, so it's basically the exact same circus, just with a different name."

You know that the CBC et al are dishonest. They lie. They omit. They exaggerate. About EVERYTHING. What makes you think that after all that, they look for the most accurate polling data they can get? 

[August1991]

On 4/18/2025 at 8:27 AM, Michael Hardner said:

Why do you think the polls get it wrong so often lately?

In 2016, the US polls were accurate. But the US has an electoral collage.

[August1991]

On 4/18/2025 at 11:49 AM, WestCanMan said:

I think you mean "Why do the polls that are cited by the MSM consistently favour the party that gives the MSM billions of taxpayer dollars right before every election?" 

.....

I tend to agree.

In 2025 Canada, we are living in a different world

[August1991]

On 4/18/2025 at 12:20 PM, Michael Hardner said:

1. Conspiracy Theory. 

.....

Officials said it was a natural virus that could kill everyone.

We now know that it was not natural and kids were not carriers.

[August1991]

On 4/18/2025 at 12:20 PM, Michael Hardner said:

....

Sorry... but Poilievre was in super-majority territory a few scant months ago.  What happened to the bought-off pollsters ?

It doesn't fly... there's no conspiracy in polling... let's just move past this...

On this, I agree.

I am surprised about the sudden collapse in the NDP vote, and the sudden rise in federal Liberal vote.

[August1991]

Let's see.

====

The federal Liberals will in Ontario. Like Clinton, they always win.

Edited Tuesday at 01:38 AM by August1991

[August1991]

If Poilievre wins more seats, let's see what Carney does.

Canada - what a country!