The Trump Recession

[Matthew]

5 hours ago, robosmith said:

IF he's smart, he will, like Reagan, get it over with early so his VP can run on a recovery.

That's a good point. In 1981 Reagan responded to the signs of recession by spinning it as necessary for moving forward. Reading that speech will make anyone appreciate how awful the current generation of republicans are by comparison even though his reasoning is flawed and short-sighted.

Edited November 9, 2024 by Matthew

[Fluffypants]

If there is a recession we just need to change the definition of what recession is and we will magically not be in a recession. Just like in order to lower crime just stop prosecuting criminals.

[CdnFox]

5 hours ago, Matthew said:

One big flaw in your narrative is that you're attempting to describe the entire thing as being caused by government policy when the vast majority of it was caused by private sector activity.

In its entirety it was caused by government policy.

The reason we have government policy involved in the marketplace at all is to provide stability and keep the playing field level. That was the case before the democrats decided to change things. Every ounce of that market activity you're talking about load from the democrats decision to fundamentally alter the nature of the market regulations.

Imagine someone was driving a car, and then they took their hands off the wheel. And then the car crashed because it didn't turn a corner. In your world you would blame the car. The real problem is the driver who decided to take his hands off the wheel

[Matthew]

On 11/9/2024 at 12:10 PM, CdnFox said:

The reason we have government policy involved in the marketplace at all is to provide stability and keep the playing field level.

Not after decades of conservative deregulation. It was republicans who forced finance industry deregulation that led to the recession. Even Alan Greenspan admitted this.

Edited November 10, 2024 by Matthew

[CdnFox]

9 hours ago, Matthew said:

Not after decades of conservative deregulation. It was republicans who forced finance industry deregulation that led to the recession. Even Alan Greenspan admitted this.

I'm sorry but that is just utterly complete massive bullshit. Even Clinton admitted it was the democrats fault. And it is extremely obvious just from looking at the facts.

The democrats created the ability for people who are not qualified to get home loans easily. This immediately and predictably began to create an increasing pricing that went up and up. For years and years it was so bad you could buy a home and sell it in 6 months for a tidy profit and that's exactly what people started doing.

That's what led to the housing crutch. I know you democrats love to rewrite history but that's why nobody wants to vote for you anymore. Learn the truth, and do better. People are sick of the woke, people are sick of democrats lying and trying to wreck on history and never learning from it and making a mistakes again and again. Deal with those two things that you can start to win elections again without cheating

[Matthew]

Checking in with our November 2024 predictions.

As of today, the headline is:

U.S. economy shrinks 0.3% in first quarter

If it shrinks again this next quarter economists will call it the start of a recession. Combine that with a spike in trumpflation and it could be the beginning of a dismal and costly period.

Edited Wednesday at 02:29 PM by Matthew

[CdnFox]

20 minutes ago, Matthew said:

Checking in with our November 2024 predictions.

As of today, the headline is:

U.S. economy shrinks 0.3% in first quarter

If it shrinks again this next quarter economists will call it the start of a recession. Combine that with a spike in trumpflation and it could be the beginning of a dismal and costly period.

I wouldn't quite say it's inevitable yet but it certainly is the most likely outcome. I don't think this is news, even trump has said as much when he was asked about recession. In his mind a recession would be a short-term pain for a long-term game if it forces manufacturers and such to return to the us. In the long run he feels it will mean more jobs and more prosperity and more tax revenue and a better economy even though in the short term it's painful. The "Sometimes you have to give an inch to get a mile" argument. 

I personally don't think that'll happen.  I think his plans will fall short, i think a recession will ****** investment rather than induce it,  i think that companies will move in different directions and they'll think trump will be gone in 3 years and it takes longer than that to move 

I think the world will enter an economic slow period and that'll likely drag on till the 4th quarter. I think it'll be fairly shallow but i think recovery will be slow. 

But it depends on a lot of factors and trump and his people obviously think it WILL lead to investment and the recovery will be red hot and bountiful.  We'll see who's right 

[Hodad]

On 4/30/2025 at 10:22 AM, Matthew said:

Checking in with our November 2024 predictions.

As of today, the headline is:

U.S. economy shrinks 0.3% in first quarter

If it shrinks again this next quarter economists will call it the start of a recession. Combine that with a spike in trumpflation and it could be the beginning of a dismal and costly period.

Yes, if someone were to concoct a recipe for recession--or more likely stagflation--this is it. Trump is doing literally everything he can do drive us there, and there's nothing to do but watch the car crash from the back seat. 

The routes to avoid that outcome are dwindling quicky. We're going to lose 5 years of prosperity and our international standing all in one fell swoop. 

[robosmith]

On 11/9/2024 at 8:52 AM, Fluffypants said:

If there is a recession we just need to change the definition of what recession is and we will magically not be in a recession. Just like in order to lower crime just stop prosecuting criminals.

^Typical MAGA CULT beliefs, just like when Trump wanted to reduce the number of COVID cases by throttling the testing.

🤮

[CdnFox]

7 minutes ago, robosmith said:

^Typical MAGA CULT beliefs, just like when Trump wanted to reduce the number of COVID cases by throttling the testing.

🤮

When he could have reduced cases much much more by throttling Andrew Cumo. 

[gatomontes99]

According to the GDP report, the shrink was due to two major changes: prepurchasing imports to bypass tariffs and lower government spending.

The lower government spending will stick around, but the imports count against GDP and are a temporary influx. Importers bought more than normal to save money on tariffs. Therefore, they will buy less and that will positively effect the economy.

Also, exports and investments were stronger than expected which shows the private sector economy is strengthening and not weakening.

Oh...and jobs have been growing. As the left was absolutely adimit about before, a recession must have a loss of jobs.

Edited Thursday at 10:12 PM by gatomontes99