the Kamala Collapse appears to have begun.

[CdnFox]

Many will remember that I specifically predicted that Kamala needed to come out of the convention at least six or seven points ahead of trump and three or four in the swings. My reasoning was given her circumstances in their entirety she would slowly do worse and worse as time went on and then in the last 2 to 3 weeks nose dive and crash and she needed to have that extra room to be able to glide to the finish line because she wasn't going to add support relative to trump 

Well it appears that I was correct, she's been weakening and weakening and now there's enough of a trend line to be able to say that she is apparently begun her fall.

This chart is from approximately the end of august for all the swing states. Trump is leading in all but one at this point and that one is trending up for him. 

She came out of the convention with a slight bump but nowhere near what she needed. Trump fairly quickly caught up and now she is beginning to descend fairly rapidly.

The chart is a little deceptive, the race is still very close. But she's got nothing left in the tank. She's not getting another debate, she can't do talk shows cuz she looks like a complete !diot, her rallies aren't helping. Unless trump screws up personally and opens the door I don't see where she is going to get an opportunity to suddenly wow the public who is obviously starting to decide that they just don't like her.

And she's still going to run into that voter turnout issue we talked about.

Meanwhile trump is plugging along, playing it relatively safe, and doing his job as a presidential candidate. He's running disciplined campaign and he isn't swinging for the fences, he's just going with slow and steady wins the race and it's paying off.

It's too soon to call it of course, as I said the difference isn't that big yet, but it's pretty obvious that it's trending in that direction. By about approximately october 21st to 25th we're going to see the gap wide enough to be able to say that she lost this.

Edited October 16, 2024 by CdnFox

[NAME REMOVED]

Sadly you are probably correct. I blame the Democrats, for choosing a running mate not capable of winning an election. It's the second time they have blown it. Hilary Clinton was a very weak candidate too. 

[User]

This is promising. 

If these polls are as representative of how people will vote as the last 2 elections, this should be a victory for Trump. 

[Deluge]

2 hours ago, DUI_Offender said:

Sadly you are probably correct. I blame the Democrats, for choosing a running mate not capable of winning an election. It's the second time they have blown it. Hilary Clinton was a very weak candidate too. 

Obama was bad too. Aside from Candace Owens' ever expanding research on Heels up Harris, she's also discovering that Barry really may have been born in Kenya and that he is also a flaming homosexual. Makes one wonder whether Michael really is a Michael. 

[CdnFox]

3 hours ago, DUI_Offender said:

Sadly you are probably correct. I blame the Democrats, for choosing a running mate not capable of winning an election. It's the second time they have blown it. Hilary Clinton was a very weak candidate too. 

One of the fundamental problems that we see in representational politics is that very often the people that are really good in campaigning are really not very good at all as leaders. And similarly people that would make the most excellent leaders are often not very good at campaigning and have a difficult time ever getting elected.

On very rare occasions you see someone who is either very good at both or very bad at both. People who are excellent campaigners and also good managers of the country.

I'm afraid with Kamala they have kind of found one of those rare cases where the person simply wouldn't be either. She hasn't got the personality skills to really come across as a presidential candidate so she just doesn't know how to campaign, and at the same time she hasn't got the skills as a leader to present a truly inspiring policy package that might have offset her lack of skills on the campaign trail (like we saw with harper who SUCKED at campaigns but usually had a good plan to sell). 

I guess it's easy to forget, but you always have to remember when you pick a running mate that they may very well be the person who is called upon to win a campaign or lead the party. She just is a terrible candidate and even the democrats knew that in 2020 when they looked at her. What else were they going to do, Biden was obviously toast and there really wasn't time for any kind of leadership convention

Edited October 16, 2024 by CdnFox

[robosmith]

3 hours ago, DUI_Offender said:

Sadly you are probably correct. I blame the Democrats, for choosing a running mate not capable of winning an election. It's the second time they have blown it. Hilary Clinton was a very weak candidate too. 

Don't jump the gun just cause the NYT is on a rampage with their latest outlier poll.

All the others show static or increasing odds of Kamila winning.

[CdnFox]

10 minutes ago, robosmith said:

Don't jump the gun just cause the NYT is on a rampage with their latest outlier poll.

All the others show static or increasing odds of Kamila winning.

I posted the aggregate. I guess you don't know what an aggregate is.

When you add up all of the polls and consider them appropriately Kamala has begun to lose

That means kamala is toast and you are BANKRUPT!!!!!!!   

Edited October 16, 2024 by CdnFox