NEW: Kamala Harris vows to get food prices back to what they were before she came to the White House 😂

[CdnFox]

6 minutes ago, Hodad said:

Pick a set of economic indicators from December 2020 and compare them to today. 

GDP? DOW? Unemployment? Job growth? Wage growth? Production? Spending? Composite indicators? 

Pick your poison. 

December 2020? The middle of the pandemic?

I think you must have meant december 2019, just before it right?

ok - ummmm - How about deficit?  In 2019  the deficit was 0.98 trillion i believe?

In 2023 it was 1.7 trillion.  ALMOST double what it was under the last normal year of trump. 

ANd of course when you dump money like a drunks salor into the economy it does drive up economic growth.  But it's not sustainable and it leads to high inflation.  Remind me - did anyone see any high inflation during that time? Did things maybe get more expensive with all that gov'ts spending that gives a false picture of gdp and the stocks?  Any inflation at all?

Hard fail on your part. 

But - lets look at another.  energy. What did gas cost was it about the same?

According to this 

U.S. All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices (Dollars per Gallon) (eia.gov)

it was about 2.645 but i'm sure it was the same under biden right? lets see, 2023....

3.257? Oh.  Well. that's not good for most people is it. 

What about food? Here's kamala talking about that, surely food hasn't been that bad right?

Here's Kamala talking about it, i'm sure she'll point out that under the biden administration things have gotten much be... oh dear god!

 

 

So basically biden spent a craptonne of money to fake an economy, drove inflation through the roof, has made life hard for most people and everything costs more. 

 

Uhh huh.  And THIS was the comparison you wanted?

[CdnFox]

5 minutes ago, Matthew said:

For what it's worth, I'm not hearing the Democrats or the Republicans say or propose anything useful about the economy. They are both pandering to dumb ideas that their bases want to hear, and they are both being deceptive about the economic ups and downs of the last 4 years. Republicans can't get honest about post-covid inflation, and democrats can't get honest about the post-covid recovery.

Well, trump has talked about lowering taxes and such but not too specific. 

I think they're both a little worried about 'going first'.  I think kamala wants to steal a lot of trump's plans if she can as she already did with the tips.  We've seen this kind of thing before a lot in Canada and it does work well if you can be the second person to talk. 

 So i think this is going to be one of those cases where both sides are going to hold their cards close till the last minute until the pressure builds.  It'll be tough for her - they'll try to tie her to biden if she doesn't speak up which is why she released a little teaser.  But it's a smart play if trump falls for it. 

 

[Hodad]

4 minutes ago, Matthew said:

For what it's worth, I'm not hearing the Democrats or the Republicans say or propose anything useful about the economy. They are both pandering to dumb ideas that their bases want to hear, and they are both being deceptive about the economic ups and downs of the last 4 years. Republicans can't get honest about post-covid inflation, and democrats can't get honest about the post-covid recovery.

As per usual. There is almost zero political value to publicly discussing or debating actual economics. Might as well be Greek to most voters. Nobody wants to end up like poor Ross Perot with his charts. 

So we'll get a lot of campaign nonsense--a lot of it cynical nonsense for 100 more days and then economic advisors will try to quietly move actual levers with things like CHIPS and the poorly named (but long term great) Inflation Reduction Act.

[CdnFox]

3 minutes ago, Hodad said:

As per usual. There is almost zero political value to publicly discussing or debating actual economics. Might as well be Greek to most voters. Nobody wants to end up like poor Ross Perot with his charts. 

So we'll get a lot of campaign nonsense--a lot of it cynical nonsense for 100 more days and then economic advisors will try to quietly move actual levers with things like CHIPS and the poorly named (but long term great) Inflation Reduction Act.

Probably not wrong

[Matthew]

9 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

both sides are going to hold their cards close till the last minute

Yeah plus the tuned-out rejects who after this many years still have no opinion about f*cking Donald trump aren't going to now finally be won over to either side by detailed economic policy.

[Matthew]

19 minutes ago, Hodad said:

Nobody wants to end up like poor Ross Perot with his charts

Yeah exactly.

19 minutes ago, Hodad said:

then economic advisors will try to quietly move actual levers

As a voter Id be inserted to at least know who's in the potential bullpen of economic experts on each side.

Edited August 18, 2024 by Matthew

[Hodad]

21 minutes ago, Matthew said:

Yeah exactly.

As a voter Id be inserted to at least know who's in the potential bullpen of economic experts on each side.

Harris doesn't have her own people yet, so likely whoever is on Biden's staff.🤷‍♂️

It would be nice to know which washed up supply siders are still allowed in camp Trump. 😄

[Nationalist]

1 hour ago, Hodad said:

Pick a set of economic indicators from December 2020 and compare them to today. 

GDP? DOW? Unemployment? Job growth? Wage growth? Production? Spending? Composite indicators? 

Pick your poison. 

 

Jeebus, I hope your kids are at hot as you think they are because you didn't do 'em any favors in the brains department.

Ok I pick prices and job growth. Real job growth. Not this pathetic recovery you saps like to wave around.

Your endless lies have come to the end. You've blown your wad and the results are clearly visible to every person.

You've failed because Brandon and Kamala failed to do anything but leave a trail of inflation, surrender and traitorous intentions. Indeed...at the end of his reign...and his life...Brandon has completed his failure. And so have you.

[CdnFox]

44 minutes ago, Matthew said:

Yeah plus the tuned-out rejects who after this many years still have no opinion about f*cking Donald trump aren't going to now finally be won over to either side by detailed economic policy.

well as always the election will be won by the mushy middle who can go either way.  People are afraid right now, they're worried about being able to afford homes and food.  I suspect that it's not so much about being "wowed" by one plan or another, i think it'll be about who scares them the least. 

Trumps got a slight edge there. Things weren't bad under him, they were worse under biden and some of what harris is proposing is going to seem pretty sus.   

We'll see.  I suspect that the first debate will be about her trying to define him in terms of abortion and reckless behavior and him trying to define her as being a fiscally irresponsible communist.  

[Hodad]

8 minutes ago, Nationalist said:

Ok I pick prices and job growth. Real job growth. Not this pathetic recovery you saps like to wave around.

Your endless lies have come to the end. You've blown your wad and the results are clearly visible to every person.

You've failed because Brandon and Kamala failed to do anything but leave a trail of inflation, surrender and traitorous intentions. Indeed...at the end of his reign...and his life...Brandon has completed his failure. And so have you.

Lol. Prices? "Prices" is not an economic indicator. In fact, strong economies drive up prices of most goods (more spending). That's why the FED raises interest rates, to cool spending and keep inflation at the target rate. Which is 2% to hedge against the risk of deflation. In the "perfect" economy prices will go up over any 4 year period. They will always be higher.

Though when you say "prices," the obvious question is "prices of what goods or services"? I'm going to assume you mean something like inflation based on the CPI. There certainly was post-pandemic inflation--for all the reasons mentioned all the times--but while it's a bit above target it's at a reasonable place this year. 

But inflation isn't really the ballgame. It's meant to happen, and as long as wages are outpacing inflation it doesn't much matter that prices are higher, because people will still be better off.  And over the last 4 years wages HAVE outpaced inflation. If you zero in on the short timeframe that is the peak of post-pandemic inflation, yes inflation was rising faster than wages, but in the big picture that isn't true, and for the last two years that hasn't been true. 

And as for job growth, you've completely pooped the bed with that one. Here's the 5-year job growth view.

 

Here are the screenshots. So, as you say, the "results are clearly visible to every person." They don't even have to click the links. 

So howzabout you just go play in the meme thread while the grownups talk about the economy.

 

[Nationalist]

5 hours ago, Hodad said:

Lol. Prices? "Prices" is not an economic indicator. In fact, strong economies drive up prices of most goods (more spending). That's why the FED raises interest rates, to cool spending and keep inflation at the target rate. Which is 2% to hedge against the risk of deflation. In the "perfect" economy prices will go up over any 4 year period. They will always be higher.

Though when you say "prices," the obvious question is "prices of what goods or services"? I'm going to assume you mean something like inflation based on the CPI. There certainly was post-pandemic inflation--for all the reasons mentioned all the times--but while it's a bit above target it's at a reasonable place this year. 

But inflation isn't really the ballgame. It's meant to happen, and as long as wages are outpacing inflation it doesn't much matter that prices are higher, because people will still be better off.  And over the last 4 years wages HAVE outpaced inflation. If you zero in on the short timeframe that is the peak of post-pandemic inflation, yes inflation was rising faster than wages, but in the big picture that isn't true, and for the last two years that hasn't been true. 

And as for job growth, you've completely pooped the bed with that one. Here's the 5-year job growth view.

 

Here are the screenshots. So, as you say, the "results are clearly visible to every person." They don't even have to click the links. 

So howzabout you just go play in the meme thread while the grownups talk about the economy.

 

Your a fool...and your bullshit is old and stale now. People know what the economy is like now. But you go with this and see what it gets you...other than laughed at.

[Hodad]

2 hours ago, Nationalist said:

Your a fool...and your bullshit is old and stale now. People know what the economy is like now. But you go with this and see what it gets you...other than laughed at.

As usual, lacking the ability to find or understand data, you turn to your "feelings."

You're the kind of person who looks at a thermometer on a perfect 65-degree day and says "Bullshit! Feels 45 degrees to me. Fark you, thermometer! The weather is a disaster!"

🙄

Edited August 18, 2024 by Hodad

[Nationalist]

10 minutes ago, Hodad said:

As usual, lacking the ability to find or understand data, you turn to your "feelings."

You're the kind of person who looks at a thermometer on a perfect 65-degree day and says "Bullshit! Feels 45 degrees to me. Fark you, thermometer! The weather is a disaster!"

🙄

Lol...

Actually I'm the kind of person who looks at the cost of stuff before Brandon and now.

It doesn't look good.

[Matthew]

@Hodad It's true that the economy has hummed among suprisingly well for the last 4 years considering everyone was predicting a big post- pandemic recession. I don't think anyone can take credit for causing the period of post-pandemic inflation nor preventing a recession. But I guess Biden can at least say he didn't do anything to create sudden shocks or added uncertainty to the system.

But going through a period of inflation was traumatic for a lot people and they are still feeling the impact of it, so I don't see the point in dismissing it as an issue. Maybe hourly wage labor has kept up, but lot of people on a salary schedule have essentially lost 25% of their income. People with money in savings saw the value of that evaporate dramatically for a while. And the CPI does not include finance costs. The cost of borrowing is still very high. The housing shortage and the huge increase in home prices has caused a lot of people to be locked into a lower tier of housing than what they had been planning a decade ago.

 

Edited August 18, 2024 by Matthew

[Hodad]

26 minutes ago, Matthew said:

@Hodad It's true that the economy has hummed among suprisingly well for the last 4 years considering everyone was predicting a big post- pandemic recession. I don't think anyone can take credit for causing the period of post-pandemic inflation nor preventing a recession. But I guess Biden can at least say he didn't do anything to create sudden shocks or added uncertainty to the system.

But going through a period of inflation was traumatic for a lot people and they are still feeling the impact of it, so I don't see the point in dismissing it as an issue. Maybe hourly wage labor has kept up, but lot of people on a salary schedule have essentially lost 25% of their income. People with money in savings saw the value of that evaporate dramatically for a while. And the CPI does not include finance costs. The cost of borrowing is still very high. The housing shortage and the huge increase in home prices has caused a lot of people to be locked into a lower tier of housing than what they had been planning a decade ago.

 

Nobody can claim exclusive credit, for sure. But the Trump Stimulus, the Biden Stimulus and the tough medicine from the Fed are all massive factors. As well as some artful follow-on actions. There have been maybe two "soft landings" in history, and this one isn't accidental. A huge cast of players involved, but it's not just good luck. The Biden admin didn't just not fark it up.. They've earned considerable credit.

I don't dismiss inflation. It's no fun for anyone, and definitely some people have been hurt, but there are two points to make--maybe three. 

The first is that there is a huge difference between saying, "The post pandemic economy has been tough for me," and saying, "The economy is in shambles!" I'm sympathetic to individual pain, but it doesn't erase the overall success. 

While this has been a tough period, the US had fared really well compared to most of the world. We experienced a global pandemic. It was a massive shock. There were many kinds of pain inflicted, including economic. There's some irony in the fact that the "conservative-ish" crowd who decries the nanny state is irate that the state didn't protect them from all types of pain resulting from a black swan event of biological origin. Yes there was damage. Yes, good government made it better. No, good government didn't erase all effects, nor is that a reasonable expectation. 

Second, our measures of inflation and wage growth are based on averages. There are definitely things and people on the up and down side of those averages. Some employers will scale wages more effectively than others.

People with a lot of cash savings got burned by inflation, yep. But a sort of inverse of that is that everyone with a mortgage (or any other loan) got "boosted" by inflation as the relative burden of those notes decreased. Workers will fare better than non-workers. Etc. Etc.

Third is that while inflation can cause some real pain, a lot of the pain is psychological. It's really easy to see a higher price tag at the grocery store and a lot harder to notice a few extra offsetting dollars in your paycheck. And indeed, employees locked into long-term contracts might not be getting the same adjustments as employees without long-term contracts. Sometimes those contracts help and sometimes they hurt. Mobile employees (job jumpers) are going to fare better than loyalists. But even considering all of it, hourly and salaried real wages (CPI adjusted) have climbed. You can see that easiest in the 10-year view here.

The point isn't to dismiss the pain of real people. It's to say that if the state of the economy is an election issue, it should be viewed as a strength rather than a weakness. It's a good economy in any context, but coming out of the pandemic, it feels downright remarkable. And the average American is better off.

[CdnFox]

1 hour ago, Matthew said:

@Hodad It's true that the economy has hummed among suprisingly well for the last 4 years considering everyone was predicting a big post- pandemic recession. I don't think anyone can take credit for causing the period of post-pandemic inflation nor preventing a recession. But I guess Biden can at least say he didn't do anything to create sudden shocks or added uncertainty to the system.

But going through a period of inflation was traumatic for a lot people and they are still feeling the impact of it, so I don't see the point in dismissing it as an issue. Maybe hourly wage labor has kept up, but lot of people on a salary schedule have essentially lost 25% of their income. People with money in savings saw the value of that evaporate dramatically for a while. And the CPI does not include finance costs. The cost of borrowing is still very high. The housing shortage and the huge increase in home prices has caused a lot of people to be locked into a lower tier of housing than what they had been planning a decade ago.

 

It's not surprising in the least and I appointed this out in excruciating detail with charts and maps for hodad before.

The economy has the appearance of humming along because Joe Biden spent an insane amount of money to create that impression. Government spending has stimulated the economy and makes it look like it's performing well on paper. But the byproduct of that kind of stimulation and fake economy is always inflation. Which we saw. And the problem is the moment you stop propping it up there is a collapse. Biden keeps talking about a soft landing, So even he admits there's going to be a correction. Whether it is soft or hard we will have to see, it will depend on other factors.

But no, the economy has not done well. It just looks that way on paper. And that is why people are having such a tough time making ends meet. And they look around and they realize this and that's why they are not happy about bidenomics. By dynamics is a hoax

[Matthew]

1 hour ago, Hodad said:

Nobody can claim exclusive credit, for sure. But the Trump Stimulus, the Biden Stimulus and the tough medicine from the Fed are all massive factors. As well as some artful follow-on actions. There have been maybe two "soft landings" in history, and this one isn't accidental. A huge cast of players involved, but it's not just good luck. The Biden admin didn't just not fark it up.. They've earned considerable credit.

A plausible case can be made for policies playing a role in stabilizing things so far. But the reality is complicated and global and no one really knows why the whole thing hasn't tanked. Economists will certainly be analyzing and theorizing about this for the next century. Maybe we're in our own oblivious roaring 20s while lower down financing strains are building.

1 hour ago, Hodad said:

there is a huge difference between saying, "The post pandemic economy has been tough for me," and saying, "The economy is in shambles!"

I agree, and the doom and gloom rhetoric on the right is transparently self-serving.

 

1 hour ago, Hodad said:

People with a lot of cash savings got burned by inflation, yep. But a sort of inverse of that is that everyone with a mortgage (or any other loan) got "boosted" by inflation as the relative burden of those notes decreased.

This is a great point. I lost a lot of value in my own savings but my home price has nearly doubled (no mortgage). Of course if i ever sell this place I'll probably then get taxed for all the inflation-based increase in value.

1 hour ago, Hodad said:

a lot of the pain is psychological.

For that matter a lot of the inflation is probably psychological. Econ 101: a shift in the demand curve can be caused by the mere expectation of future price increases. And if your customers are primed to a widespread spike in prices the suppliers take advantage of that.

[CdnFox]

4 hours ago, Matthew said:

 

 

This is a great point. I lost a lot of value in my own savings but my home price has nearly doubled (no mortgage). Of course if i ever sell this place I'll probably then get taxed for all the inflation-based increase in value.

 

Plus if you want to buy another place you'll pay the inflated value on that so it's at best a lateral move.  And if you don't want to move you can't touch it. 

Meanwhile you're still paying double for groceries.  And if you DID have a mortgage  which is 23 percent of american homeowners or if you rent (34 percent)  then the interest rate increases probably hurt you substantially reducing the affordabilty of your home and shelter. 

So well over  50 percent of people are worse off. Even if their value of their property went up they can't access it and have higher costs. 

 

Sorry man, it is just a lie that the current economic situation is 'great' for anyone except those wealthy enough to weather it. The middle and lower classes are suffering.