The essence of populism and its popular impact

[impartialobserver]

15 hours ago, WestCanMan said:

It's not 'in our psyche', it's in our wallets. 

A 36 Gal gas tank went from $72 to $145. If you fill it twice a month it's an extra $145/mo. Factor in increased food costs, etc, disposable income vanishes quickly.   

Average weekly wage in  NV as of 2023 q4 is $1271 (qcew data).  Average person in NV pays $4.75 per gallon and drives roughly 270 (14,016 / 52 weeks). So 270 miles at 20 mpg is 13.5 gallons. 13.5 * 4.75 = 64.125 Some simple division says that gas purchases account for 64.13/1271 or 5.05% of their income. NV is on the high end when it comes to gas prices and miles driven in comparison to other states. So to say that your economic fortunes are strictly tied to gas prices is simply not mathematically true. Its an emotional argument.

I get it.. we have so little control over the price. Shopping around does not help because you end up driving out of your way to save $0.05 per gallon. yes, this does affect food prices but as for the exact percentage.. that is difficult to nail down. If something goes up from $1.45 to $1.65, what portion of that $0.20 can you say with exact certainty is tied to an increase in gas prices... nobody knows. 

 

[WestCanMan]

15 minutes ago, impartialobserver said:

Average weekly wage in  NV as of 2023 q4 is $1271 (qcew data).  Average person in NV pays $4.75 per gallon and drives roughly 270 (14,016 / 52 weeks). So 270 miles at 20 mpg is 13.5 gallons. 13.5 * 4.75 = 64.125 Some simple division says that gas purchases account for 64.13/1271 or 5.05% of their income. NV is on the high end when it comes to gas prices and miles driven in comparison to other states. So to say that your economic fortunes are strictly tied to gas prices is simply not mathematically true. Its an emotional argument.

I get it.. we have so little control over the price. Shopping around does not help because you end up driving out of your way to save $0.05 per gallon. yes, this does affect food prices but as for the exact percentage.. that is difficult to nail down. If something goes up from $1.45 to $1.65, what portion of that $0.20 can you say with exact certainty is tied to an increase in gas prices... nobody knows. 

 

1. Take income taxes off that weekly wage

2. Factor in rent/mtgs which take the bulk of one's wage

3. Factor in substantially increased costs for food, etc

4. Factor in car payments, utility bills, phone bills, cable bills, ins, kids' sports and activities, etc...

Suddenly 5% of one's wages is a lot

 

And just remember, you're acknowledging that people's gas expenses alone are taking up an extra 2.5% of their gross wage, and then food prices are taking away 20% more than before. 

This all comes out of one's 'disposable income', which is not a huge % of their gross/pre-tax wages. 

[impartialobserver]

1 minute ago, WestCanMan said:

1. Take income taxes off that weekly wage

2. Factor in rent/mtgs which take the bulk of one's wage

3. Factor in substantially increased costs for food, etc

4. Factor in car payments, utility bills, phone bills, cable bills, ins, kids' sports and activities, etc...

Suddenly 5% of one's wages is a lot

 

And just remember, you're acknowledging that people's gas expenses alone are taking up an extra 2.5% of their gross wage, and then food prices are taking away 20% more than before. 

This all comes out of one's 'disposable income', which is not a huge % of their gross/pre-tax wages. 

2. in the western US, this is the big expense. Instead of tying the health of the economy to gas prices.. maybe they should complain about cost of housing. in 2013.. average home price in Reno was roughly $150K, now it is $500K +.  Reno is not even the worst when it comes to percentage increase in average home price. Average rents went from $850 to $1400. At 500k, one's average monthly mortgage is $3,400. Now that is if you are buying right now. For the others that have purchased in the past and are still paying.. they are paying on average between $800 and $3400. No matter which end of the range that someone is paying... it still far outdoes the average $64 per week or $256 per month they spend on gas. 

1. In NV, we have no state, city, or county income taxes so that $1271 would boil down to roughly 1042 after FICA and Federal income tax. So now we have $64/1042 (average weekly income after FICA and Fed income tax) which comes to 6.1%. 

2. As for food, that comes to an average of $293 person per month so about $75 per week. Average household size in NV is 2.61 so that comes to 2.61 * 75 = 195 per week. Still, far less than you pay for rent/mortgage but hey lets cry about gas prices and say that gas prices are the one and only expense in one's life and also say that it is the only good in the economy. Strangely enough, gas prices and GDP do not correlate all that strongly.. hmm..

[WestCanMan]

3 minutes ago, impartialobserver said:

2. in the western US, this is the big expense. Instead of tying the health of the economy to gas prices.. maybe they should complain about cost of housing. in 2013.. average home price in Reno was roughly $150K, now it is $500K +.  Reno is not even the worst when it comes to percentage increase in average home price. Average rents went from $850 to $1400. At 500k, one's average monthly mortgage is $3,400. Now that is if you are buying right now. For the others that have purchased in the past and are still paying.. they are paying on average between $800 and $3400. No matter which end of the range that someone is paying... it still far outdoes the average $64 per week or $256 per month they spend on gas. 

1. In NV, we have no state, city, or county income taxes so that $1271 would boil down to roughly 1042 after FICA and Federal income tax. So now we have $64/1042 (average weekly income after FICA and Fed income tax) which comes to 6.1%. 

2. As for food, that comes to an average of $293 person per month so about $75 per week. Average household size in NV is 2.61 so that comes to 2.61 * 75 = 195 per week. Still, far less than you pay for rent/mortgage but hey lets cry about gas prices and say that gas prices are the one and only expense in one's life and also say that it is the only good in the economy. Strangely enough, gas prices and GDP do not correlate all that strongly.. hmm..

It's not just about gas, and I never said it was. I just said that rising gas prices affect the price of everything else that you buy.

If gas was $32 a week instead of $64/wk, and groceries were $145/week instead of $195/week, that's a lot of extra disposable income that people are missing, right?

People feel that because it's real. It translates to 'no more movie night', or 'goodbye to the weekly round of golf', or holding onto the old beater car for another year and just hoping it doesn't need any major repairs. 

People don't like that. They weren't used to that under Trump and they don't like it now. They don't have to like it, and if you think that you're explaining away the importance of people's money to them you're insane.

FYI it doesn't take a thorough understanding of advanced statistics to know that people don't want to kiss $80/week goodbye. You have to be in a pretty high tax bracket not to notice $80/week going out the door for nothing extra in return. I could use an extra $80 after-tax dollars a week. 

Are you seriously well-off enough that you could just burn four twenty-dollar bills a week like it was nothing? It's over $4k a year. You can get a new big-screen TV in the Living rm, Rec rm, and one in the MBdrm with that much money.

[impartialobserver]

41 minutes ago, WestCanMan said:

It's not just about gas, and I never said it was. I just said that rising gas prices affect the price of everything else that you buy.

If gas was $32 a week instead of $64/wk, and groceries were $145/week instead of $195/week, that's a lot of extra disposable income that people are missing, right?

People feel that because it's real. It translates to 'no more movie night', or 'goodbye to the weekly round of golf', or holding onto the old beater car for another year and just hoping it doesn't need any major repairs. 

People don't like that. They weren't used to that under Trump and they don't like it now. They don't have to like it, and if you think that you're explaining away the importance of people's money to them you're insane.

FYI it doesn't take a thorough understanding of advanced statistics to know that people don't want to kiss $80/week goodbye. You have to be in a pretty high tax bracket not to notice $80/week going out the door for nothing extra in return. I could use an extra $80 after-tax dollars a week. 

Are you seriously well-off enough that you could just burn four twenty-dollar bills a week like it was nothing? It's over $4k a year. You can get a new big-screen TV in the Living rm, Rec rm, and one in the MBdrm with that much money.

I am giving the macro view... across the entire population not just those who struggle and when they go from $32 per week on gas to $64.. it changes their whole world. Yes, I know those types being as I grew up in that lower 5% of the income spectrum. 

So lets break it down for the AVERAGE nevadan, I use NV because I have a mountain of data at my disposal

$1042 take home per week (4,515 per month). Now keep in mind this assumes a one income household
- 64 (gas)

- $500 Mortgage or $275 rent 

- 195 (food)

- Utilities (gas , electric, trash, water). This is a hard one because if you rent.. some or all of this is embedded in the rental cost. As a home owner, you could have electricity and gas or simply all electric. However, a best estimate in NV is that a household pays $160 ($110 electric, $25 internet, and $25 water). Quick quiz.. which is the smallest number on the left hand side? 

Quick subtotal = 1042- 64-500-195 - 160  = 123

Those are the absolute essentials and cross the income spectrum. Now, you could add in the discretionary or intermittent expenses such as car payments, car insurance, health care, kids activities, entertainment, etc. As for myself, I do not have a car payment and have relatively low health care costs. I know that not everyone has this situation. The point is that folks fixate on gas prices as some magical number. They do the same thing with jobs. Number of jobs went up but because it is not the mythical manufacturing job.. that number is worthless to them. 

Edited May 23, 2024 by impartialobserver

[WestCanMan]

Just now, impartialobserver said:

I am giving the macro view... across the entire population not just those who struggle and when they go from $32 per week on gas to $64.. it changes their whole world. Yes, I know those types being as I grew up in that lower 5% of the income spectrum. 

Stop bullshitting. They're giving away $32/week for nothing extra in return, and that's just for gas. They're giving more than that away every week for the same amount of groceries. 

Quote

Quick subtotal = 1042- 64-500-195 - 160  = 123

Quick subtotal with gas at $32 and groceries at $175 (just 10% less, and a lot of staple items are up by more than 10%):

Quick subtotal = 1042- 32-500-175 - 160  = 123 $175.

123 x 1.423 = 175 😉

Would people want 42.3% more disposable income? 

If you answered "No thanks, I don't like disposable income", vote for Biden. If you answered "Yes, I'd like my disposable income to be 42.3% higher" then vote for Trump.

 

 

*Remember when I said that the $32 for gas (and the extra $ for groceries) comes straight out of your "disposable income", and that's its % of the gross wage isn't very meaningful?

Instead of acknowledging that you seemingly set out to disprove it, and yet you've proven my point quite clearly. Even just adding $32 to $123 is a lot. It's $155 now. It's 26% more. 

Just think about working a whole week and at the end of it all you either have $123 to spend on some leisure activities, or $175 (incl groceries money saved). For a WHOLE WEEK. 

The avg Nevadan does a lot of work in a week. If they get $123 at the end of that week vs $175 you better believe that makes a VERY REAL difference. That's a lot of fun/debts paid/money saved/whatever over the course of a year. 

You simply cannot make the argument, even using statistics, that having 42% more disposable income wouldn't feel amazing for anyone. 

[impartialobserver]

2 minutes ago, WestCanMan said:

Stop bullshitting. They're giving away $32/week for nothing extra in return, and that's just for gas. They're giving more than that away every week for the same amount of groceries. 

Quick subtotal with gas at $32 and groceries at $175 (just 10% less, and a lot of staple items are up by more than 10%):

Quick subtotal = 1042- 32-500-175 - 160  = 123 $175.

123 x 1.423 = 175 😉

Would people want 42.3% more disposable income? 

If you answered "No thanks, I don't like disposable income", vote for Biden. If you answered "Yes, I'd like my disposable income to be 42.3% higher" then vote for Trump.

 

 

*Remember when I said that the $32 for gas (and the extra $ for groceries) comes straight out of your "disposable income", and that's its % of the gross wage isn't very meaningful?

Instead of acknowledging that you seemingly set out to disprove it, and yet you've proven my point quite clearly. Even just adding $32 to $123 is a lot. It's $155 now. It's 26% more. 

Just think about working a whole week and at the end of it all you either have $123 to spend on some leisure activities, or $175 (incl groceries money saved). For a WHOLE WEEK. 

The avg Nevadan does a lot of work in a week. If they get $123 at the end of that week vs $175 you better believe that makes a VERY REAL difference. That's a lot of fun/debts paid/money saved/whatever over the course of a year. 

You simply cannot make the argument, even using statistics, that having 42% more disposable income wouldn't feel amazing for anyone. 

You can't seriously think that having $123 per working adult versus $175 is a life changer. I was raised poor and $42 extra week did not change things much. 

We complain about gas prices more than housing costs for one simple reason.. lack of control. You can shop around for housing. Big vs. small, own vs. rent, in the city vs. out in the suburbs, etc. All options in NV are relatively expensive but you have control over how much you spend. Gas.. not really. The distances between home and work never change. So you are forced to accept the price and move on. As for NV, I have shown that it is a relatively small portion of their average budget. Keep in mind, NV is in the upper 10% of gas prices and we drive more than almost any other state. Why? The majority of homes are in the suburbs and jobs are in the city center or in outlying areas. 

if you really dive into the details.. the increase in food costs is not solely based on increase in gas prices. If you parse it out.. cost of labor is the big one. Food is another one that you do not have a high degree of control over. Yes, you can choose to shop at store x and not store y. From there, you can choose to buy 55 goods and not 65. However, you can't forego it altogether unless you go to a food donation center. Most are not willing to endure the shame or lack of selection that goes with that. 

[WestCanMan]

16 minutes ago, impartialobserver said:

You can't seriously think that having $123 per working adult versus $175 is a life changer. I was raised poor and $42 extra week did not change things much. 

Buddy, I said 42%, not $42 lol. But fwiw, when I was a kid (1968-1986), $42 was a lot.

You could gas up your car several times. Send your kid's entire class to see a movie (Star Wars cost about $2 at the theatre when it came out). You could buy about 50 Big Macs. Get a front row ticket to an NHL game... 

You must be very wealthy to be so out of touch with the meaning of 42% more disposable income. Like, mega wealthy.

"I couldn't even spend 20% of the money I made last month, and I bought some farms, one or two yachts, some private jets, bought some carbon offsets from my pal 😉, and got a tattoo of Biden on my taint. What am I gonna do with 42% more disposable income?"

[impartialobserver]

35 minutes ago, WestCanMan said:

Buddy, I said 42%, not $42 lol. But fwiw, when I was a kid (1968-1986), $42 was a lot.

You could gas up your car several times. Send your kid's entire class to see a movie (Star Wars cost about $2 at the theatre when it came out). You could buy about 50 Big Macs. Get a front row ticket to an NHL game... 

You must be very wealthy to be so out of touch with the meaning of 42% more disposable income. Like, mega wealthy.

"I couldn't even spend 20% of the money I made last month, and I bought some farms, one or two yachts, some private jets, bought some carbon offsets from my pal 😉, and got a tattoo of Biden on my taint. What am I gonna do with 42% more disposable income?"

Ok, I was off by $10 but your example shows their disposable income going up by $52 (175-123)  still not a game changer. How about lets focus on housing cost? If they spent $300 per week instead of $500.. that would change everything. Then their disposable income would go from 123 to 323 and that if there is only one income. In NV, the household size is 2.61 with an average of 1.35 income earners. Hmm... 

Your reliance on % change is deceptive. If someone's disposable income increased from $2 to $7.. that is 250% growth. But now look at the raw number.. they only have $5 more. $7 does not get you much if you are a grown adult. 
 

 

Your post (look below

"Quick subtotal with gas at $32 and groceries at $175 (just 10% less, and a lot of staple items are up by more than 10%):

Quick subtotal = 1042- 32-500-175 - 160  = 123 $175.

123 x 1.423 = 175 😉

Would people want 42.3% more disposable income? 

If you answered "No thanks, I don't like disposable income", vote for Biden. If you answered "Yes, I'd like my disposable income to be 42.3% higher" then vote for Trump."

Edited May 23, 2024 by impartialobserver

[WestCanMan]

1 minute ago, impartialobserver said:

Ok, I was off by $10 but your example shows their disposable income going up by $52 (175-123) 

Right: $32 for gas and $20 for groceries (low estimate). $52.

And if disposable income goes from $123 (your number) to $175, that's a 42% increase.

Quote

How about lets focus on housing cost? If they spent $300 per week instead of $500.. that would change everything. 

Good point.

When millions of illegal immigrants flock across the border, they don't compete for houses in Martha's Vineyard, with the Obamas, or in Nancy's gated neighbourhood, they compete for low-end housing, driving the prices up in the poorest areas.

2-4 families will join in to get a rental, driving the prices up for low-income Americans who would like to have their own dwelling unit to themselves if they could afford it. 

Biden sure sucks, doesn't he...

At te pace we're on, you'll be making the case against covid pseudo-vaccines next 😉

[impartialobserver]

1 minute ago, WestCanMan said:

Right: $32 for gas and $20 for groceries (low estimate). $52.

And if disposable income goes from $123 (your number) to $175, that's a 42% increase.

Good point.

When millions of illegal immigrants flock across the border, they don't compete for houses in Martha's Vineyard, with the Obamas, or in Nancy's gated neighbourhood, they compete for low-end housing, driving the prices up in the poorest areas.

2-4 families will join in to get a rental, driving the prices up for low-income Americans who would like to have their own dwelling unit to themselves if they could afford it. 

Biden sure sucks, doesn't he...

At least in my neck of the woods.. there is no data to support this claim that illegals are flooding the market and crowding out the legal citizens. In Reno, the issue is lack of available land. 81% of the state is federally owned. Second, the terrain is not exactly conducive to building. Lots of mountains and quite often.. desolate and covered in playa dust. Finally, when you are 8 miles from the CA state line.. you get buyers that have substantially more funds available than the local. They are ok with paying $600K for a 2 bedroom in the suburbs. As the seller, you are ok with holding out for the higher price even if 9 out of 10 prospective buyers are woefully priced out.