What do you do on Monday, Stephen?

[Argus]

I think we're all agreed that Harper will be Prime Minister tomorrow night. And it will almost certainly be a minority. So what should he do to keep himself in power? I think it's important for the conservatives to stay in power a while, even if nothing much is accomplished. The longer they're in power the harder it's going to be for the Liberals to play the fear card in the following election. The more familiar Harper is, the more comfortable most Canadians will be with him.

Crime. This is an area he should hit hard at once. The Libs and NDP are on record calling for tougher sentences, so he should be able to get a strong new crime bill through easily enough. This should include tougher sentences for violence, a strengthening of bail and parole laws, and tougher prisons. If possible, I'd like to see a "at hard labour" option included, as in the UK, for violent offenders, and a "life without parole" for the worst murderers. I wouldn't mind a three or four strike law for violent offenders either. I think they could get all that through the House. The money for all of this would be in their first budget.

The Military. Again, giving them a lot more money, in the first budget. Also be popular with most Canadians, and hard for the opposition to oppose with any strength.

The 1% cut in the GST. Keeping their promise, and though the opposition will grumble, they won't force a vote over it.

Health care. This government won't likely last long enough to have any serious affect on health care, no matter what they do. But they need to be seen as very earnest in their desire to make improvements. We need more seats in universities for medical and nursing students, just to start. So an arrangement has to be made with the provinces to expand big-time, probably with financial assistance from the feds. They should make a big production of going to Europe and studying the best, most efficient and effective systems there, and, within six-12 months, reporting on how the Canada Health Act will be changed in accordance with European principals. This is important because every change to the Canada Health Act is opposed by using the United States as the example. Canadians think the US system is horrible, but they have a high opinion of European social services and medical care. Changes which seem logical, sensible, and based on European models will win widespread support, even with the introduction of some private medical care. Canadians are ready to accept major changes because they don't feel the present system is working and can't be made to work. The Liberals would fight this, and the NDP, but if it's done properly, the BQ will agree. After all, Quebec already has lots of private health care delivery, and the BQ has strongly defended it.

Canada Ports Police need to be recreated - very publicly, using the Liberal Senate report of how organized crime now controls our ports. This will be an embarrassing blow to Martin. At the same time, the Coast Guard has to be given more money to patrol our coasts so its ships aren't tied up at docks for lack of fuel. There also needs to be stronger border controls.

The Auditor General's office needs a major expansion, which the Tories have announced. This again should be soon, as the opposition can't really oppose it, and it will be seen as another Tory success. At the same time as her mandate is expanded, the Tories should request audits into the Business Development Bank of Canada, CIDA, and those foundation trusts Martin has been stuffing billions of dollars into.. Do that early, so the results might come in just in time for the next election. The Libs would have a hard time opposing this, and even if they did the NDP and BQ won't.

A very high profile commision on restructuring appointments to boards, commissions and judgeships, as well as vetting the highest level promotions within the RCMP and miitary, all to remove the taint of political patronage and control. This commision's mandate could also include, of course, "exploring" all the problems of the present system, giving us a litany of incompetent judges, board members, ambassadors etc. More ammunition to use against the Liberals.

They need to start getting out of unnecessary areas where the federal government should never have stuck its nose. There are many things funded by the feds which should not even be funded by government in the first place, like lobbying groups, canoe museums, blonde joke books, golf courses and hotel refurbishments. We should not be funding arts groups, books nobody reads, studies nobody wants, or roads to nowhere.

Immigration needs to be addressed. Almost everyone except the Liberals and NDP agree it's a horrible mess. This is a touchy one, and needs to be overseen, in all likelihood, to a high profile ethnic for cover against the inevitable accusations of racism. There was an interview in the paper the other day, for example, by an Iranian woman who had been here 20 years. She had been trying for a long, long time to get a visitor's visa for her sister. And was great rightly angry. "I've been here 20 years and I can't even get permission for my sister to come and visit me!". And why? Because if she comes and decides to stay it's almost impossible to get rid of her without years and years of effort. If we clean up the refugee detemrination system these kinds of problems will be greatly eased. That is the sort of message that needs to be presented. We need to be able to hear, judge, and get rid of failed refugee claimants within weeks, not years, and the hearing needs to be pragmatic, not emotional. Sure Iran is a nasty place. But we can't take sixty million Iranians. Without specific evidence of particular government attacks or threats to an individual they must go back. And fast. The points system needs to be more rigidly applied, and cleaned up. It doesn't do any good to have an engineer come here whose credentials are no good and who can't speak the language. In fact, all new immigrants should be required to speak the language before they get here. And source countries need to be shifted according to which ones do poorly and which ones do not.

These would all be seen as high profile successes if the Tories can work them properly. They need to avoid a long, devisive battle over same-sex marriage or abortion which would overshadow everything else. I don't think private members bills on those will be introduced by the Tories. However, they might be introduced by Liberal MPs.

[August1991]

Harper has said repeatedly that he has five priorities: Accountability act, GST cut, crime, military and health wait times. These points alone, if dealt with properly, will keep his government busy for a year or so given all the background noise and brush fires to be extinguished by any government.

The Conservatives will have to bring in a budget quickly so the provincial governments can table their budgets.

I have a suspicion that Canadians (English and French) want honest competence in Ottawa; they're not looking for brave new worlds.

PM Harper will quickly realize that managing Canada's regions, and in particular its linguistic divide, is the hardest part of the federal government. (Argus, your diatribes against bilingualism in the federal civil service is evidence of that. The fact of the matter is that Canada is composed of "others".)

The election results in Quebec will determine much, and Harper may find that his greatest opportunity will be in federal-provincial relations.

Already, this election has had a surprising and large effect on Quebec politics. The BQ ad about Calgary and Duceppe's references to the Bill 101 have brought out a form of pettiness that the pequistes were trying to shed.

[Leafless]

Argus

Moinority or majority whether one is better than the other, I think is not the issue at this time.

In my opinion majority's doesn't always fit the bill as with the case of Jean Chretien's majority governments and what did he really accomplish?

Majority dependes on the goals and idea's of a particular government with some that are publicly perceived as good and some that are bad and some don't even fit the description of national goals and actually fall into the catergory of a secretive closed door federal government with an unknown agenda.

I think Mr. Harper's is actually better off with a minority government for the time being as his hands will be tied in certain areas regardless.

[tml12]

Argus

Moinority or majority whether one is better than the other, I think is not the issue at this time.

In my opinion majority's doesn't always fit the bill as with the case of Jean Chretien's majority governments and what did he really accomplish?

Majority dependes on the goals and idea's of a particular government with some that are publicly perceived as good and some that are bad and some don't even fit the description of national goals and actually fall into the catergory of a secretive closed door federal government with an unknown agenda.

I think Mr. Harper's is actually better off with a minority government for the time being as his hands will be tied in certain areas regardless.

I hope his hands are tied regarding Quebec autonomy.

I do not think Quebec should have a greater voice in international affairs because it undermines Canada as a whole.

I also hope Harper stands up for Quebec anglophones.

[Riverwind]

I think Mr. Harper's is actually better off with a minority government for the time being as his hands will be tied in certain areas regardless.

Paradoxally, I think a minority gov't this time around is best for Steven Harper. If he has a majority the opposition would be free to continue the hyperbole we have seen in this election campaign and ensure that whatever he does is painted in the worst possible light. With a minority the opposition has to be more responsible because they have to support the gov't in the short term. They would like idiots to claim that Harper's initiatives would destroy the country and then turn around and vote for them.

[shoop]

Agreed to an extent spar.

I think harper will have a lot more latitude with this minority than Martin had.

He will likely be in the 140s for seats. Which means all three opposition parties will have the balance of power.

As much as the Liberals tried to make an issue of it this go round, people will be pissed at any party forcing an *early* election this time around.

[fellowtraveller]

What does Harper do on Monday.

He'll schedule a meeting with Jack Layton, where both will learn what their place in the sun will cost, politically.

[kimmy]

One thing that I think is very important to consider is that *none* of the opposition parties will want to go back to the polls any time soon.

-the BQ will likely be in a situation where the only way to go is down.

-the NDP will likely also be in a position that's as good as it gets for them: Layton's best situation is to be in a minority government where he has enough seats to bargain with the PM to get some of his own issues on the table. He'll have that after this election. He might not have it after the next.

-after this election the Liberals will be so deep in debt that it will take years to get their finances straightened up. That might just give them enough time to choose a new leader, reacquaint themselves with the Ordinary Canadians that now make up the large majority of donors to other parties but only 12% of Liberal donations, and heal the infighting between the internal factions.

-and all of the opposition know that after 2 elections in 18 months, Canadians do *not* want a third any time in the near future. Unless Harper attempts something that's extremely unpopular or has some sort of major scandal, voters will probably blame the opposition for forcing an election.

None of the opposition parties will *want* an election any time soon, and they'll avoid defeating Harper on a confidence vote if they have any way of getting around it. And I think that if the opposition parties attempt to obstruct Harper on issues that aren't confidence votes, it could backfire on them. If it looks like political opportunism, Canadians will respond negatively to that sort of posturing.

-k

[geoffrey]

One thing that I think is very important to consider is that *none* of the opposition parties will want to go back to the polls any time soon.

-the BQ will likely be in a situation where the only way to go is down.

-the NDP will likely also be in a position that's as good as it gets for them: Layton's best situation is to be in a minority government where he has enough seats to bargain with the PM to get some of his own issues on the table. He'll have that after this election. He might not have it after the next.

-after this election the Liberals will be so deep in debt that it will take years to get their finances straightened up. That might just give them enough time to choose a new leader, reacquaint themselves with the Ordinary Canadians that now make up the large majority of donors to other parties but only 12% of Liberal donations, and heal the infighting between the internal factions.

-and all of the opposition know that after 2 elections in 18 months, Canadians do *not* want a third any time in the near future. Unless Harper attempts something that's extremely unpopular or has some sort of major scandal, voters will probably blame the opposition for forcing an election.

None of the opposition parties will *want* an election any time soon, and they'll avoid defeating Harper on a confidence vote if they have any way of getting around it. And I think that if the opposition parties attempt to obstruct Harper on issues that aren't confidence votes, it could backfire on them. If it looks like political opportunism, Canadians will respond negatively to that sort of posturing.

-k

Agreed, the Liberals won't be asking for an election anytime soon. They have $34mil in bills to pay first (that was at the end of last election).

It really does show the Liberals lack support of ordinary Canadians. The Conservatives get a huge portion of their financing from small donations by many people. The Liberals are based a big donations from a few select groups now. Very few people interested enough to donate in politics are donating to the Liberals.

[fellowtraveller]

The Bloc will be busy preparing for a provincial election in Quebec, followed by a referendum.

The Liberals will be busy choosing a new leader, and then getting Frank Mckenna a seat in the House.

The NDP will be busy propping up the Cons.

So, I agree there will be little pressure for an election.

[Harare]

I agree with the above points listed by those two smarts A's.

Plus 1 point - very quickly change the rules limiting individual political donations and ban corporate and union donations which will make it extremely difficult for the Libs to clear their debt.

And I think history will very likely repeat itself:

John Diefenbaker - minority government 1957 - Federal election results: Conservatives 112, Liberals 105, CCF 25 and Social Credit 19

2 years later - landslide victory - 31 March 1958 - Federal election: Conservatives 208, Liberals 48, Other 9; largest majority ever recorded

[Argus]

I agree with the above points listed by those two smarts A's.

Plus 1 point - very quickly change the rules limiting individual political donations and ban corporate and union donations which will make it extremely difficult for the Libs to clear their debt.

And I think history will very likely repeat itself:

John Diefenbaker - minority government 1957 - Federal election results: Conservatives 112, Liberals 105, CCF 25 and Social Credit 19

2 years later - landslide victory - 31 March 1958 - Federal election: Conservatives 208, Liberals 48, Other 9; largest majority ever recorded

Yes, very good idea. Banning large donations screws both Liberals and NDP. The Conservatives have a membership base bigger than all the others combined, and most of their donations are under $100

[Boru]

Agreed to an extent spar.

I think harper will have a lot more latitude with this minority than Martin had.

He will likely be in the 140s for seats. Which means all three opposition parties will have the balance of power.

As much as the Liberals tried to make an issue of it this go round, people will be pissed at any party forcing an *early* election this time around.

Poeple will indeed be pissed, but at who is not atall certain. JOe Clark was forced into an early election call, and look what happened to him... Harper will ahve to be open to dealing with opposition that are ideally far form his own base.

[tml12]

I agree with the above points listed by those two smarts A's.

Plus 1 point - very quickly change the rules limiting individual political donations and ban corporate and union donations which will make it extremely difficult for the Libs to clear their debt.

And I think history will very likely repeat itself:

John Diefenbaker - minority government 1957 - Federal election results: Conservatives 112, Liberals 105, CCF 25 and Social Credit 19

2 years later - landslide victory - 31 March 1958 - Federal election: Conservatives 208, Liberals 48, Other 9; largest majority ever recorded

Yes, very good idea. Banning large donations screws both Liberals and NDP. The Conservatives have a membership base bigger than all the others combined, and most of their donations are under $100

That is because they are a populist party supported by common people (like me) who don't make a lot of money every year.

[Guest eureka]

Accountability, August! A Federal accountability Act! We already have those laws.

Sonce Harper is on record as wanting to devolve most federal powers - he doesn't know there aren't any to devolve - to the Provinces: since he is on record as inrending to turn over the federal government's taxing base largely to the Provinces, what will there be to be accountable for?

A Harper government will most certainly not become the "Head Waiter" to the Provinces. Ot will have nothing to bring to the table.

And, TM, Harper is on record as opposing bilingualism. He is on record as wanting to give Quebec the autonomy it seeks.

He will do nothing for Quebec Anglophones except give cause for a renewed exodus.

[geoffrey]

Accountability, August! A Federal accountability Act! We already have those laws.

Sonce Harper is on record as wanting to devolve most federal powers - he doesn't know there aren't any to devolve - to the Provinces: since he is on record as inrending to turn over the federal government's taxing base largely to the Provinces, what will there be to be accountable for?

A Harper government will most certainly not become the "Head Waiter" to the Provinces. Ot will have nothing to bring to the table.

And, TM, Harper is on record as opposing bilingualism. He is on record as wanting to give Quebec the autonomy it seeks.

He will do nothing for Quebec Anglophones except give cause for a renewed exodus.

Bilingualism is a joke. Why do we need to provide all of our federal services in French and English in Alberta, yet in Quebec, its only French? I can tell you theres more English speakers in Quebec than French speakers in Alberta.

In French areas, speak French, in English, speak English. Makes alot of sense to me. There will always been French education available, hell, we have Spanish and Ukrainian schools in Calgary.

[Guest eureka]

You can't tell me anything about the numbers of anything in Quebec and Harper opposes bilingualism there too. He supports the right of the government of Quebec to proscribe the English language there.

[normanchateau]

I think it's important for the conservatives to stay in power a while, even if nothing much is accomplished.

Yes, proving to Canadians that he can and will accomplish nothing will certainly help Harper get re-elected.

His most impressive accomplishment might just turn out to be continuing to ballgag the social conservatives and religious nuts who will be elected on January 23rd.