Liberals contemplating fall election?

[Canuck E Stan]

So much for waiting 30 days after Gomery report.Liberals are getting ready for a fall election.

The governing Liberals are seriously contemplating pulling the plug on Parliament later next month and calling an election, government and Liberal insiders say.

Liberals contemplating fall election

[August1991]

Huh?

Prime Minister Paul Martin says he will not call a fall election.

Martin said Sunday he believes Canadians deserve to know the full results of the investigation into the federal sponsorship scandal before an election is held.

Maclean's 25 Sep

[Canuck E Stan]

You may have missed the footnote to his speech where he can put the blame on the opposition. They made me do it (because -of -some -strategic -forcing- them- to- vote- against -the-government- bill)

The prime minister said there's nothing he can do if opposition parties in Parliament join forces to defeat his minority government, but he said that's not what Canadians want.

[Riverwind]

You may have missed the footnote to his speech where he can put the blame on the opposition. They made me do it (because -of -some -strategic -forcing- them- to- vote- against -the-government- bill)

You seem to be repeating the Conservative party line who would love to topple the gov't without taking any responsibility for their actions. Martin has everything to lose and nothing to gain by calling an early election. The so called lead that the Liberals have is a soft as a mashmallow and would disappear in a second if the Liberals orchastrated an early election - I am sure Martin knows this.

[Canuck E Stan]

I agree with you this lead is not very tangible,and I personally would rather see it later than sooner.

I somehow think that the ploy by the Liberals would be (as they made Healthcare an issue the last couple of go rounds) "see those Conservatives,they just couldn't wait ,now we were forced send you to the polls again.

We didn't want to go but they made us do it.Lets show them by giving me a majority." May sound simplistic but it sure got Canadians upset last April when no one wanted an election,there's no reason it couldn't work for the Liberals again.

[catch-as-catch-can]

I personally would rather see it later than  sooner.

Later or sooner Conservatives are going to win.

And that's a promise!

[catch-as-catch-can]

May sound simplistic but it sure got Canadians upset last April when no one wanted an election,there's no reason it couldn't work for the Liberals again.

OH YES THERE IS!

The last time many of us thought Paul Martin would turn on a dime and go rightwing.

Now that we know what a chicken shit he is ... WATCH OUT!

[Riverwind]

We didn't want to go but they made us do it.Lets show them by giving me a majority." May sound simplistic but it sure got Canadians upset last April when no one wanted an election,there's no reason it couldn't work for the Liberals again.

You have to realize that (IMHO) most of the post-sponsorship support for the Liberals comes from people who believe that Martin was not involved with the corruption and that Martin is willing and able to clean up the mess and make sure it never happens again. If Martin goes back on his word and orchestrates an early election then he would undermine his credibility as someone who is capable of cleaning up the mess and a lot of Liberal voters would look elsewhere (including myself).

I expect to see a lot of softball, feel good legislation in the fall which the conservatives will find hard to oppose without nit picking on the details. Bills that look like the will not pass will likely never make it to a vote which means the only way to have an election will be is the opposition parties defeat the gov't on a motion to defeat the gov't. In such as situation, the blame for the early election will clearly belong to the opposition parties.

[err]

Huh?

Prime Minister Paul Martin says he will not call a fall election.

For once I agree with August... I think he'd be nuts to call one now...

Martin has vowed to call an election within 30 days of the release of the final report.

"I gave my word," he said.

But since when has he been a "man of his word"

[Canuck E Stan]

Acording to this poll, it is the question presented to Canadians, that indicates how they feel when an election should be called.Interesting.

Angus Reid

Canadians are divided on the possibility of an early election. 45 per cent of respondents are in favour of opposition parties trying to bring down the minority Liberal government this fall, while 41 per cent disagree.

Polling Data

In your opinion should Paul Martin call an election 30 days after the Gomery report is made public, as he had indicated or would you prefer he calls an election at a later date?

I would prefer an election 30

days after the Gomery Report 53%

I would prefer an election

at a later date 33%

Don’t know / Refusal 13%

If opposition parties had the opportunity to defeat the minority Liberal government this fall, would you be in favour or not of this move?

In favour 45%

Not in favour 41%

Don’t know / Refusal 13%

Source: Leger Marketing

Methodology: Telephone interviews to 1,500 adult Canadians, conducted from Sept. 6 to Sept. 11, 2005. Margin of error is 2.6 per cent.

[shoop]

Gomery's interim report comes out November 1st.

The Liberals definitely do not want that hitting the fan in the middle of an election.

It's all up to Jacko, if the NDs want to go in the fall then we will have an election. Are the NDs better off with more seats in a CPC minority government? Makes you wonder...

[Riverwind]

It's all up to Jacko, if the NDs want to go in the fall then we will have an election. Are the NDs better off with more seats in a CPC minority government? Makes you wonder...

It is not up the the NDP! The conservatives are the only party with enough seats to ensure that there is no fall election. The CPC would abidicate it responsibility as her majesty's loyal opposition if it continues allow the NDP to cut rediculous spending deals to keep the Liberals in power. The Liberals tabled a budget last spring that conservatives could live with - expect the same sort of legislative agenda in the fall. If Harper plays the stateman he would come out looking pretty good for an election in the spring. If he plays the angry man like he did in the spring then I expect the Liberals to win again.

Case in point:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/sto...Story/National/

The only reason these tax cuts would be delayed further is because the CPC puts electoral opportunism ahead of good policy. That I why I think any election in the fall will be the responsibility of Harper. Not the Liberals and certainly not the NDP.

[August1991]

I beg to differ, Sparhhawk. If this government stays in power during this session, it will be due to NDP support.

BTW, I think there is only one supply bill scheduled so unless there is a confidence motion introduced, the government will not have to test its support.

The session does not look good. First, Martin says he does not want an election this fall but second, his staff imply that there may be one. I'm sure the Liberals are just itching for one - if they can pin its cause on the opposition. The Liberals are close to 40% in the polls and Gomery is a risky endeavour. (I happen to think Gomery will turn out to be sort of a non-event but who knows.)

In fact election timing, said Harper, rests entirely with the New Democrats.

"We'll have an election the day the NDP decides it doesn't want to support Liberal corruption in the House of Commons any longer."

Over to you, Jack.

"I don't do threats," Layton said following a recent NDP caucus retreat.

--

Martin, after telling ATV that Canadians want an end to the "unsavoury" parliamentary tactics and name-calling of last spring, says a fall election will only come if "Stephen Harper and Gilles Duceppe continue their little romance."

National Post

This is what they are saying before the session opens...

Anyone know the Commons vote totals now?

[Riverwind]

I beg to differ, Sparhhawk.  If this government stays in power during this session, it will be due to NDP support.

Why do you presume that the CPC must automatically oppose the gov't? The CPC has the numbers to ensure that any supply bill that it likes can pass therefore the responsibility for the defeat of any supply measure lies with the CPC as long as the Liberals only put bills on the table that align with conservative priorities. Last time I checked the conservatives support corporate tax cuts so there is no philosophical reason to oppose such as bill.

Harpers words are telling. By continuing to harp about Liberal corruption he appears to be continuing the losing strategy from lst spring.

BTW: I agree the Gomery report will be a non-event because of the first rule of modern media: the signficance of an event is inversely proporational to the hype preceding the event.

[August1991]

So, we have the following scenario. The Libs introduce corporate tax cuts, or some variation. The BQ and NDP vote against. The Tories, refusing to support a corrupt Liberal government under any circumstances, also vote against.

Then, we go into an election in which the Liberals defend corporate tax cuts and claim the opposition provoked the election while the Tories claim the Liberals are just corrupt.

The NDP says the Liberals are in favour of corporations.

That's a possible scenario, unlikely, but possible.

I think Harper is tired of playing chess games with these characters and just wants an election. IMV, whatever happens, the Liberals will not get a majority. The only question is whether the NDP will hold the balance of power.

----

BTW: I agree the Gomery report will be a non-event because of the first rule of modern media: the signficance of an event is inversely proporational to the hype preceding the event.

Not a bad rule!!

[kimmy]

I personally think that the Liberals would love to go to the polls early, and whether it actually happens depends on whether the Liberals can play their cards in a way that makes it look like the opposition forced it. If they can craft a situation that gives Mr Martin the opportunity to use lines like "...and Mr Speaker, that is a principle that I'll go to the polls to defend! I dare Mr Harper to defeat this bill!" then they'd probably be delighted.

So, we have the following scenario.  The Libs introduce corporate tax cuts, or some variation.  The BQ and NDP vote against.  The Tories, refusing to support a corrupt Liberal government under any circumstances, also vote against.

Then, we go into an election in which the Liberals defend corporate tax cuts and claim the opposition provoked the election while the Tories claim the Liberals are just corrupt.

yeah. But in a situation like that the Conservatives would be foolish to defeat the bill. I don't think forcing an election by voting against one of your own positions is going to be a very favorable situation. At a time like that, why not remember that you're the "free votes" party, and have some of your members vote in favor: "I didn't want to vote against this bill, because I think it's good for my consituents." To me, that would make more sense. It lets Harper do his angry-guy thing while not defeating the party's own issue in parliament. If "the Liberals are corrupt!" is the only compelling issue that Harper has, then forcing an election before the report comes out is not going to be a winning strategy. If Liberal corruption is to be the chief issue in the election, then waiting for the report makes sense to the majority of Canadians.

-k

[shoop]

IMV, whatever happens, the Liberals will not get a majority.  The only question is whether the NDP will hold the balance of power.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Completely agreed. But is it a Liberal or a Conservative minority?

[ScottBrison]

So much for waiting 30 days after Gomery report.Liberals are getting ready for a fall election.

The governing Liberals are seriously contemplating pulling the plug on Parliament later next month and calling an election, government and Liberal insiders say.

Liberals contemplating fall election

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The quicker we get a Liberal Majority back into the House the better, I'm sick of the damn Fascist Conservative Alliance trying to send Canada back to the 1800s in terms of Social Policy.

[shoop]

The quicker we get a Liberal Majority back into the House the better, I'm sick of the damn Fascist Conservative Alliance trying to send Canada back to the 1800s in terms of Social Policy.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Hmmm ScottBrison, any support for that.

Oh, I guess we could look at the Web site in your signature.

I thought I smelled something putrid in the Halifax air today

Wednesday, September 07, 2005

The Conservative Cock-Us has blown an ill wind into our quaint little Maritime town.

What an unbiased and informative site you have! Thanks for raising the level of debate here on MapleLeafWeb.

[Cartman]

I still say the Liberals keep a minority government no matter when the election takes place. I just don't think they can muster a majority. The Conservatives have no chance unless they stumble upon something big. Judging by their strategy thus far, I am not convinced they are up to the task. They do not appear to be a credible government in waiting.

[Whosoever]

The Conservatives have no chance unless they stumble upon something big. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yeah ... like a couple of Mark Steyns.

[August1991]

If Liberal corruption is to be the chief issue in the election, then waiting for the report makes sense to the majority of Canadians.

I have to agree with you Kimmy. Martin boxed Harper in with his speech promising to hold an election after Gomery.

I still say the Liberals keep a minority government no matter when the election takes place. I just don't think they can muster a majority. The Conservatives have no chance unless they stumble upon something big.

I agree with you too Cartman. There are politicians who are capable of overcoming bad pre-campaign poll numbers (I believe Mulroney did in both 1984 and 1988, Schroeder recently did in Germany) but I somehow doubt Harper can.

At the same time, the numbers and seats are just not there for the Liberals. (They need 20 more for a majority.) They won't get them in Quebec, and I don't see them getting 20 from the Tories or the NDP. I suspect David Herle dreams of becoming another Rainmaker but I it won't happen. (I bet Harper is more sanguine about his own prospects.)

Lastly, I am not so certain either Harper or Martin will resign after the next election if it turns out to be another minority. Harper might resign, simply because he's fed up.

Harper is not in this merely to be PM at any price. I think he genuinely wants to make the federal government smaller and more honest. This is not a simple or easy task.

----

More broadly, Canadian federal politics are entering an Italian phase. The BQ is like the Communist Party and we will have a series of corrupt, unstable minority governments all designed to work around a large party that cannot be part of government. The Quebec disease - a manic-obsession dividing absolutely everything on the nationalist question - has infected federal politics.

The demise of Canada has been predicted before but this time, the situation seems ominous. If this were a Hollywood movie, the scriptwriters would have to resort to a plot twist bringing in some new force to change the story. Instead, there's nothing. This cat is running out of lives.

[Cartman]

More broadly, Canadian federal politics are entering an Italian phase. The BQ is like the Communist Party and we will have a series of corrupt, unstable minority governments all designed to work around a large party that cannot be part of government. The Quebec disease - a manic-obsession dividing absolutely everything on the nationalist question - has infected federal politics.

That is a pretty bleak outlook August. Playing devil's advocate, I would argue that as long as the NDP can work with the minority government, we should not have an Italian phase. The problem will be if the Conservatives ever form a minority government and they are unable to work with the NDP. I wonder, could these two parties work together? On the surface, it seems hopeless.

[Whosoever]

The Conservatives have no chance unless they stumble upon something big. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yeah ... like a couple of Mark Steyns.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Or three Don Martins, or four David Frums, or five Andrew Coynes, or ninety seven Barbara Yaffes.

[kimmy]

The quicker we get a Liberal Majority back into the House the better, I'm sick of the damn Fascist Conservative Alliance trying to send Canada back to the 1800s in terms of Social Policy.

If fine discussion were fine dining, your messages would be Ken-L-Rations, Scott. Welcome back. Now we have a lefty who's an intellectual match for B-Max.

-k