Tory support plummets

[The Terrible Sweal]

story

I predicted this weeks ago, when the Gomery stuff firs got really hot. I knew right away that the Tories' tin ears would lead then right into the buzz-saw, and sure enough, their blood is now all up the walls and across the ceiling.

As usual, an intelligent observer can tell them exactly where they blew it. But part of why they blew it is also why they will deny, and bury their heads in the sand rather than absorb the truth.

[Riverwind]

As usual, an intelligent observer can tell them exactly where they blew it.  But part of why they blew it is also why they will deny, and bury their heads in the sand rather than absorb the truth.

Polls go up, polls go down. Another round of negative coverage following Gomery issuing his report will send the numbers down again.

What these numbers do show is the CPC needs to drastically rethink its strategy. I have seen signs that this is happening. The CPC appears to backing off on SSM - it is only an issue because of the Liberal back benchers now.

[The Terrible Sweal]

What these numbers do show is the CPC needs to drastically rethink its strategy.

Obviously. But if you consider the problems that produced the current strategy, you see the seeds that will continue to produce faulty strategy. In other words, any strategy is the product of deeper fundamentals.

I have seen signs that this is happening. The CPC appears to backing off on SSM -

That's the wrong stratgy move now too. It just adds weakness and flipfloping to the existing appearance of unreason and social conservatism.

[kimmy]

The CPC has not changed its position on SSM. The position agreed to at the policy convention still holds. I think Sparhawk is saying that they haven't been making an issue of it and that the only reason SSM is back in the news is that Pat O'Brien has brought it to the fore.

Obviously the CPC has done a lousy job the last several month. Let's fire up Professor Peabody's Way-Bak Machine and return to early April...

...Jean Brault's testimony has just been made public. The press loves it, can't get enough. For the Tories, it's like winning the lottery. So what do they decide to do? They start feeding speculation that they're going to force an election. So instead of Gomery, the first 10 minutes of every national newscast is devoted to election speculation. Harper should have let the Liberals dig their own hole in wake of Brault's testimony... instead, he grabbed the shovel out of their hands and started digging one of his own.

Then there was the confidence motion. Whether the government was obliged to call an election after losing that vote is an interesting question to legalists and scholars, but not for the average Canadian. For the average Canadian, the story was that the Tories had made some kind of gimmicky ploy to try to force an election. The public doesn't really like ploys, and the public didn't want an election. Again, Harper seems to have badly misjudged the public's mood.

Then there was Belinda.ca... another event which damaged the Tories with the voters that they need to appeal to if they ever want to win an election. Stronach's decision is her own, but it certainly sounds like Harper gave Stronach a judge out the door. Another incident that makes me question his ability as a leader.

And then the Gurmant Grewal fiasco. Holy crap, I don't even know where to begin. I think the fact that this guy continues to draw breath is damaging to the Tories... but Harper's handling of the issue has again not displayed good sense. Peter McKay had it right with his little "there's no angels in this... we need more information" comment. Harper, on the otherhand, got burned by his own doggedness in pursuing the issue. He thought he smelled blood... but it turned out to be menstruation from an angry wolverine. (yikes... my search for metaphors has finally gone too far.)

So... there's four issues that have turned people off of the CPC. I don't think any of it's that the Liberals have been forgiven or anything... I think it's that some of the soft Liberal support had drifted to the CPC in April, and following 2 months of mismanagement by the Tories, that soft support has gone back to the Liberals now.

And there's 4 reasons my estimation of Harper has really gone downhill the past few months. It has nothing to do with "hidden agendas" or "scary beliefs"... it's just my growing concern over his judgment.

-k

[Netherlands]

Do people here think that recent news about Christian conservative influence gaining in the Conservative Party is also playing a part in the decreasing support for the Tories? All the news about this is being overshadowed by the Grewal Affair, but I can see it being a bigger issue as time goes on.

A few articles/opinion pieces that I have read over the last few months have talked about that image that Stephen Harper has presented of himself - angry and bitter - which is something that turns voters off.

[The Terrible Sweal]

I could scarecely have said it better myself, kimmy. Though I might have added a longer list, and a few harsh jibes.

While all of these move have been disastrous, I still say one must consider why they came about. In each case, I submit, you see a strategic calculation based on a desire to rush or hustle the public into a CPC government they don't really want. The voter can feel that the motive is not the voter's interests, but the CPC's interests. And the tory response to this is not to change, not to accede, but to dismiss, deny, and try the same kinds of hustle over again.

The 'Conserative' brand in Canada has become confused (at best) in the public eye. Reform? "No, Alliance". Progressive Conservative? "Sorry we don't support that version anymore." And don't even mention Stockwell Day. His whole leadership was based on the conservative misapprehension that voters would let (pretend) youth, and (fake) excitement hide theocratic absurdity.

But Conservatives don't realized the problems they have with their brand. It's like they can't even conceive of such a thing. And so, they try sleazy things like falsifying tapes, imagining somehow that they won't be scrutinized.

[willy]

So a poll is out of whack. I would be shocked if the Conservatives didn't slip.

When is the next election? Next Feb.

No problem. The courts just gave us a real prize today. The Liberals who argue that the courts are supreme will now have to navigate the privatization of health care.

Gerywal is a flash in the pan and Canadians didn't want an election right now. When we have the Gormery election 8 months from now the world will be a different place.

Let’s compare Greywal shows lack of judgment in taping conversations and possibly trying to sell his vote for personal gain. Or Senior Liberals implicated in money laundering, and theft to secure political positions. Which story will make more waves in the next election?

NDP support up. Wait until the writ, the cost of an NDP influence changes minds come tax season.

Time for some BBQ's and the lake. What happens in the next month will fade over July.

[The Terrible Sweal]

Today's decision is a political gift the like of which the Liberals have rarely ever seen, as lucky as they have been. With medicare under assault by the courts and the radical right, where will the Canadian voter turn?

Don't rule out the possibility of the biggest Liberal majority in history coming in 2006.

[Dan]

Today's decision is a political gift the like of which the Liberals have rarely ever seen, as lucky as they have been.  With medicare under assault by the courts and the radical right, where will the Canadian voter turn?

Don't rule out the possibility of the biggest Liberal majority in history coming in 2006.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

And don't rule out the possiblity of a big upswing in Western Separation talk.

[Shakeyhands]

Today's decision is a political gift the like of which the Liberals have rarely ever seen, as lucky as they have been.  With medicare under assault by the courts and the radical right, where will the Canadian voter turn?

Don't rule out the possibility of the biggest Liberal majority in history coming in 2006.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

And don't rule out the possiblity of a big upswing in Western Separation talk.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yawn......

[err]

NDP support up.    Wait until the writ, the cost of an NDP influence changes minds come tax season.

I think the public will see that it will benefit based on what you call NDP influence. Actually, it was the NDP who kept Martin true to his word on his Liberal election "promises".... which, being the fiscal conservative that Martin is, he had no intentions of keeping. Martin was elected on his promises, so I think the public, except for some of the narrow-minded conservatives (reformers in sheeps clothing) will be glad that Martin had to keep his promises....

Out of curiosity.... do you think the public would rather give extra tax breaks to companies like Shell, Esso, or Sprint, if they have to have it taken from them, or should it be spent on the interests of the citizens of Canada.

I think that Harper's obvious choice in this matter is part of the reason he will never be trusted by Canadians.

Aside... excellent post Kimmy.

[Cartman]

And don't rule out the possiblity of a big upswing in Western Separation talk.

There will be more talk about it but absolutely nothing will come of it. They (Separation Party) have not even been able to manage their phone number let alone challenge for power. I think Western alienation is important but separation will not happen.

[Canuck E Stan]

Watch where the polls go when Martin suspends parliament in the fall while the government writes a new throne speech. So much for Martin telling Canadians it's time to get Parliament working.

http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Canada/2005/06...1079596-cp.html

[willy]

Out of curiosity.... do you think the public would rather give extra tax breaks to companies like Shell, Esso, or Sprint, if they have to have it taken from them, or should it be spent on the interests of the citizens of Canada.

Most Canadians appreciate having a job. Most Canadians work for small to midsize businesses. Yes they are also corporations. Tax cuts to these businesses encourage investment, and more jobs.

IMO Canadians can handle their money better than big brother or do you think we should keep giving our money to Quebec Communications companies.

Clean air, and reducing homelessness is great but I am yet to see how the billions they are spending will impact us Canadians. A budget line is not a plan. The Liberals have been fixing health care for 14 years now, when can we ask them to stop.

[ScottBrison]

As usual, an intelligent observer can tell them exactly where they blew it.  But part of why they blew it is also why they will deny, and bury their heads in the sand rather than absorb the truth.

Polls go up, polls go down. Another round of negative coverage following Gomery issuing his report will send the numbers down again.

Unlikely, because when the public finds out it was just a handful of Liberals they're going to have serious reservations about Mr. Harper lying to them by saying over and over again it was the whole party that was to blame.

[willy]

Unlikely, because when the public finds out it was just a handful of Liberals they're going to have serious reservations about

When the handful is the most senior people in the party they represent the whole party.

PMPM best step aside, he is tainted and can't be trusted.

Just yesterday he said no to two tier health care and yet we already have it.

He didn’t know about conversations with Grewal and then he did.

He didn't know what was going on or did he?

If you see a friend doing something wrong, it is your responsibility to stop them.

[The Terrible Sweal]

Unlikely, because when the public finds out it was just a handful of Liberals they're going to have serious reservations about

When the handful is the most senior people in the party they represent the whole party.

The people involved in Adscam are geographically confined and not big players in the Liberal party outside of Quebec.

PMPM best step aside, he is tainted and can't be trusted.

Just yesterday he said no to two tier health care and yet we already have it.

Please.

He didn’t know about conversations with Grewal and then he did.

When did he deny knowledge that conversations were taking place? I don't think he said that anywhere.

He didn't know what was going on or did he?

If you see a friend doing something wrong, it is your responsibility to stop them.

More precisely, if you see another member of cabinet with you doing something wrong it is your responsibility to stop it. If you see it.

[ScottBrison]

When the handful is the most senior people in the party they represent the whole party.

So If the mayor of your town does wrong does that mean as a member of the community you should be blamed? If a member of your family commits a crime are you guilty? It's nice to get a preview of this "Guilt By Association" justice system we'd have under a Conservative Alliance government.

PMPM best step aside, he is tainted and can't be trusted.

Just yesterday he said no to two tier health care and yet we already have it.

Buy a clue. Do you think we can trust Steven "I splice therefore I am" Harper? If so I pity you.

He didn’t know about conversations with Grewal and then he did.

He didn't know what was going on or did he?

At Exactly no time did he say he didn't know about the conversations.

If you see a friend doing something wrong, it is your responsibility to stop them.

Who ARE you Batman? Besides what does that have to do with anything?

[willy]

Who ARE you Batman? Besides what does that have to do with anything?

Aw the mind of a Liberal. Scary. Simply put, Martin was the most senior cabinet minister in Quebec through much of the 90’s and he would have personally known most of the people involved with the Adscam. When it came to fundraising and where money came from, he should have been aware of the tactics used. He should have blown a whistle, but I think his political future was more important to him. You knew all this but choose to deny its implications.

PMPM said in the house that he didn't know of the convesation and two days latter in the house he said of course he knew of the converastion.

Just admit it, Martin lies.

Buy a clue.

Should I ask the same of you?

Does it hurt too much to realize the party damaging our healthcare system, our national unity and the trust in our national institutions is the Liberal Party?

14 years of governing and what do we have?

Larger government with worse results.

A health care system that sees no end of problems and people dieing in line to get treatment

A Quebec that after all Liberal efforts feels more alienated than they did after the last referendum

The military equipment old enough to be in museums

City’s with cap in hand and provinces with no infrastructure money to meet the needs

No more air quality emission standards than we had in 92. We only have 3 toxic compounds with federal government standards.

We have a Kyoto plan that has shown no plan or hope for effect

Our trade relations with the US shows no ability to influence action on disputes (BSE, Softwood)

Our international aid has steadily declined

In stead of base funding for post secondary the government set up a scholarship fund (millennium fund)

Students average debt load continues to grow and the universities are not able to grow and meet the demand for spaces

The young offenders act changes died on the papers twice and never was fixed

Child porn still has not been addressed

Etc.

[Guest eureka]

Most of your post is pure rubbish, Willy. You also blame Martin and the Liberals for things that are within provincial jurisdiction.

You also repeat the "Conservative" lie that we have bigger government. That is not true and I have posted figures several times on that. The Liberals began to reduce the size of government instantly they took office in 1993. That was the peak year for public sector under Mulroney's watch. We have not yet returned to the size of the Mulroney empire even though there has been a 15% or so increase in the Canadian population in the years since.

[willy]

Most of your post is pure rubbish, Willy.

Okay so you say most is rubbish. How about you point out what isn't rubbish and we can start from there.

[ScottBrison]

Most of your post is pure rubbish, Willy.

Okay so you say most is rubbish. How about you point out what isn't rubbish and we can start from there.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'll do it:

Martin was the most senior cabinet minister in Quebec through much of the 90’s

Sorry that was the only part I could (written by you) find that wasn't garbage.

[willy]

Sorry that was the only part I could (written by you) find that wasn't garbage.

Okay, now can we have a discussion or should I spend my time finding witty ways of calling you a homer.

Dispute that our health system is failing. Show me how it isn't.

Show me the new state of the art military equipment.

Point me to the progress made on reducing CO2 emissions.

Our universities are harder to get into and the cost is going up in leaps and bounds. Is that not reality.

What have the Liberals done to improve this place. What?

[ScottBrison]

Sorry that was the only part I could (written by you) find that wasn't garbage.

Okay, now can we have a discussion or should I spend my time finding witty ways of calling you a homer.

Dispute that our health system is failing. Show me how it isn't.

Show me the new state of the art military equipment.

Point me to the progress made on reducing CO2 emissions.

Our universities are harder to get into and the cost is going up in leaps and bounds. Is that not reality.

What have the Liberals done to improve this place. What?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Well for one they're trying to make it so that public stoning of gay people doesn't become commonplace.....

[Riverwind]

Dispute that our health system is failing. Show me how it isn't.

The vast majority of people get decent and timely care. The waiting list issue is being delt with, however, pefection is impossible on the health file since costs are rising faster than GDP and tax revenue.

See this story: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/Art...ent/TopStories/

Show me the new state of the art military equipment.

Chretian dithered way too long on this file but this is just one of many issues.

Point me to the progress made on reducing CO2 emissions.

The Liberals have negotiated an agreement with the automakers in lieu of regulation that will dramatically reduce the C02 emmisions from the major source.

Our universities are harder to get into and the cost is going up in leaps and bounds. Is that not reality.

Increased the amount of scholarships available to students everywhere in the country.

What have the Liberals done to improve this place. What?

Got the deficit under control and reduced taxes while increasing program spending. The fact that Canadian interest rates are now lower than the US interest rates is in a large part due to the sound managment on the part of the Liberals. The mistakes made in some ill-conceived programs are small in comparison to over all spending.