National Decima L37/C23/N21

[August1991]

The Ontario results suggested that the Liberals hold a 26-percentage-point advantage over the Tories in the province. The Grits were at 48 per cent, the NDP was at 24 and the Conservatives held 22 per cent in Canada's largest province.

G & M

2004 Election in Ontario:

LIB 44.67%

CON 31.47%

NDP 18.09%

With a sample of 1000 for the country, the sample for Ontario would be around 300. The margin of error would be around 6%.

I'd wait to see another poll to confirm this but clearly something is going on in Ontario. I guess Ontarians have decided that Adscam and all the rest don't matter and if Stronach likes the Liberals, and the Liberals play hard to win, then that's what they want.

I'm surprised the article has no BQ results. It also provides no other regional results - but Ontario causes the countrywide results.

[The Terrible Sweal]

I guess Ontarians have decided that Adscam and all the rest don't matter and if Stronach likes the Liberals, and the Liberals play hard to win, then that's what they want.

Oh yeah. You're really seeing right to the heart of that one -- not.

[shoe-in]

The Ontario results suggested that the Liberals hold a 26-percentage-point advantage over the Tories in the province. The Grits were at 48 per cent, the NDP was at 24 and the Conservatives held 22 per cent in Canada's largest province.

Bet the bank (but consider the source) on this: Mr. Harper is heading for 24 Sussex Dr, come the next election, with over 40 per cent of Ontarians voting for the Conservatives.

shoe-in

[bigdude]

I was wondering if this was some kind of rogue poll.

[Netherlands]

A lot of people always seem to question polls, especially if they disagree with them, but polling is a well-established science that is nearly always correct. Political parties always conduct their own polling too, and they really do pay attention to what polls say.

If polling were so innacuate, than why do so many businesses and groups choose to use them?

To me, this latest poll just confirms recent trends which show the Liberals and NDP rising, and the Tories falling. Nothing rogue about it.

Here is the Decima report on their latest poll: http://www.decima.com/en/pdf/news_releases/050526E.pdf

[bigdude]

Netherlands

Thank you for the link however that does link to Decima's latest opinion poll that was released today.

Secondly polling companies usually state the margin of error such as within plus or minus 2%, and that their poll is correct for example 19 times out of 20. This 19/20 is what is meant by a rogue poll and it does occur sometime. Ipsos-Reid had one in the last federal election campaign.

[August1991]

The link you provide Netherlands is to an older Decima poll made in early May. The Decima poll reported above in the G&M dates from the past few days.

Secondly polling companies usually state the margin of error such as within plus or minus 2%, and that their poll is correct for example 19 times out of 20. This 19/20 is what is meant by a rogue poll and it does occur sometime. Ipsos-Reid had one in the last federal election campaign.

That would be the same for this Decima poll.

For the Decima results in Ontario, it would be +/- 6%, 19 times in 20. The notion of a rogue poll is not incorrect, but also a trifle misleading. It's really a question of "degree of rogueness".

Given the Canada results and the Ontario results of this Decima poll, it is clear that there has been a shift in Ontario and this is now reflected in the Canada-wide numbers. To know how big a shift, we'll have to wait until another poll.

The Decima link does explain a good point about voters changing their minds, so the situation is still volatile.

[ScottBrison]

A lot of people always seem to question polls, especially if they disagree with them, but polling is a well-established science that is nearly always correct.  Political parties always conduct their own polling too, and they really do pay attention to what polls say. 

If polling were so innacuate, than why do so many businesses and groups choose to use them? 

To me, this latest poll just confirms recent trends which show the Liberals and NDP rising, and the Tories falling.  Nothing rogue about it.

Here is the Decima report on their latest poll: http://www.decima.com/en/pdf/news_releases/050526E.pdf

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The only polling firm I think is totally biased is Robbins SCE

See my opinion of them here:

http://liberal4life.blogspot.com/2005/06/i...ut-this-is.html

[bigdude]

This Decima poll is showing some amazing results.

We now know that these results show the Martin Liberals as usual short of their ever elusive major government, and that the Layton New Democrats have taken over 2nd place in Ontario.

It will be fascinating to see what the results are in the other provinces or regions.

[Canuck E Stan]

Yes let's predict Quebec, PQ,let's predict the West, Conservative. There all the predictions are done.

[bigdude]

If anyone thinks that these poll results are NOT disasterous for the Harper lead Conservatives, which party do you think is going to win Newton - North Delta next election. 99% of the Punjabi callers certainly tells me something!

Fishy ploy alleged in Grewal immigration

[Netherlands]

The two Grewal ridings would certainly be lost if the couple decides to run again. Since the Conservatives have allowed for the sitting MPs to go uncontested for their nomination, these two would have to resign before any election.

[bigdude]

Well I'm not sure what Nina Grewal has to do with anything as far as any underhanded or criminal negotiating with an MP is concerned.

Now Dosanjh's Vancouver South seat, that is another situation altogether.