Thursday...predictions.

[takeanumber]

Thursday: Big Budget Day.

Time for predictions as to how the vote is going to go:

Budget will be defeated. Margin: 1 vote.

Kilgour voting against it, with Cadman being too sick to come.

-----------------

Your predictions?

[August1991]

Good thread topic, TalkNumb.

Budget will be defeated. Margin: 1 vote.

I agree, most likely outcome.

I thought Cadman was already in Ottawa. Either Kilgour or Cadman will vote with the Tories/BQ.

Now then, what are the chances of some Liberal skulduggery in the form of cheating on the pairs?

[takeanumber]

Thx August.

I wasn't aware that Cadman was cleared to fly.

If Cadman votes Lib...that still results in +1 for the Con/Bloc/Kilgour coalition?

Aw well, I'm comfy with a +1 prediction.

[The Terrible Sweal]

... with Cadman being too sick to come.

Why won't someone 'pair' with him?

By the way, what sort of egomaniac is this KILGOUR character anyway?

[kimmy]

I suspect that Kilgour and Martin will come to some kind of arrangement. I believe Kilgour is sincere in his desire to assist in Darfur, and recognizes that this minority situation remains the best opportunity for him to influence policy. And Martin's good at math. I think they'll get something together.

... with Cadman being too sick to come.

Why won't someone 'pair' with him?

Who? In a party lines vote, which side should give up a crucial vote to make up for an independant who hasn't even indicated which way he'll vote?

By the way, what sort of egomaniac is this KILGOUR character anyway?

A sincere one, I think, one who feels strongly about his position and is using his leverage to support his beliefs, not much different than the NDP have done.

-k

[The Terrible Sweal]

... an independant who hasn't even indicated which way he'll vote?

Is he still flip flopping? Wow.

A sincere one, I think, one who feels strongly about his position ...

Gads! The worst kind!

[August1991]

By the way, what sort of egomaniac is this KILGOUR character anyway?

Canadian politics factoid: Kilgour's sister is John Turner's wife: Geills Turner.

[takeanumber]

Belinda has defected.

Revised prediction.

Libs/NDP +1.

No election.

[ScottBrison]

It all comes down to Cadman, and if he is a man of his word does what his constituants tell him we'll have glorious Liberal rule until autumn.

But what I think should happen is Harper releases his Atlantic MPs so they don't incurr the wrath of their voters. However obviously I'm hoping he's too stupid to do that.

[Newfie Canadian]

But what I think should happen is Harper releases his Atlantic MPs so they don't incurr the wrath of their voters.

I find this highly unlikely.

Here in NL, there are 2 CPC MPs, Norm Doyle and Loyola Hearn, representing St. John's East and St. John's West respectively..

They have been raked over the coals something fierce over this vote. The budget contains the legislation for the Atlantic Accord money, and just about everybody and their dogs are saying vote for the budget. They even had Tony Valeri on the Open Line show today to put some pressure on them. Premier Williams wants them to vote for it.

They're taking heat for sure.

[Joe Blow]

Well there are two votes on Thurs, C-43 & C-48.

C-43 (Actual budget & 1st in voting order): Hearn & Doyle vote with the government. Grits survive and Atlantic Accord passes (Gives the NL&L MP's a feather in their cap)

C-48 ($4.6 Bln NDP buyout plan): Hearn, Doyle, Cadman, Kilgour against the Grits; government falls and we're off to the polls.

[cybercoma]

Well there are two votes on Thurs, C-43 & C-48.

C-43 (Actual budget & 1st in voting order): Hearn & Doyle vote with the government. Grits survive and Atlantic Accord passes (Gives the NL&L MP's a feather in their cap)

C-48 ($4.6 Bln NDP buyout plan): Hearn, Doyle, Cadman, Kilgour against the Grits; government falls and we're off to the polls.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Took the words right off my keyboard. I like this guy's assessment.

[August1991]

Good point, Joe Blow.

Anyone know how people in Cadman's riding have reacted to all these latest Belinda shenanigans?

How does Kilgour feel about the Sudanese government's reaction to our troop proposal?

Martin praised Stronach her for her “gutsy” decision to join the Liberals on the eve of a potential election when there are no guarantees the government will remain in power.

But, Martin was laughed at when he claimed the move was not about guaranteeing him victory in Thursday’s vote. “I’ve got to tell you, I can count,” Martin said to a round of laughter. “The significance is that on Thursday, members of Parliament will stand and will be counted in the most-watched vote of the last 25 years.”

Bravado?

[ScottBrison]

Well there are two votes on Thurs, C-43 & C-48.

C-43 (Actual budget & 1st in voting order): Hearn & Doyle vote with the government. Grits survive and Atlantic Accord passes (Gives the NL&L MP's a feather in their cap)

C-48 ($4.6 Bln NDP buyout plan): Hearn, Doyle, Cadman, Kilgour against the Grits; government falls and we're off to the polls.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Correct me if I'm wrong, but if the government falls the bill doesn't go to the senate and dies on their order paper doesn't it? Or do budgets go to the Senate?

[theloniusfleabag]

Dear Terrible Sweal,

By the way, what sort of egomaniac is this KILGOUR character anyway?

As it has been said above, a rare, sincere politician. He and Alex Kindy were kicked out of the PC party for voting against implementation of the GST...they said it was because the majority of their constituents felt that way... but Mulroney 'cracked the party whip' and had them punted for not toeing the party line and "democracy be damned"...

[Joe Blow]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but if the government falls the bill doesn't go to the senate and dies on their order paper doesn't it? Or do budgets go to the Senate?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

After doing a little digging at parl.gc.ca; C-43 & C-48 will come to a vote on Thurs for second reading. It may be (and has been done in the past) that the Government house leader will seek the consent of the House to have the bill read and passed in all respects meaning that Thurs vote would in effect count as both second and third readings. If this is the case, then the subsequent defeat of the government on C-48 only minutes later would have no affect on C-43 as it would have already passed from the Lower to Upper House. If, however, C-43 is only read and passed through Second reading before the government is defeated then the budget dies on the order paper.

[Joe Blow]

The CBC is now running a story outlining (with quotes from Harper) a very similar scenario to the one I just outlined. The Tories will support C-43 (the main budget bill) and will oppose C-48 (the NDP deal bill).

Should be an interesting ride on Thursday.

[August1991]

Or do budgets go to the Senate?

All bills must pass both Houses.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but if the government falls the bill doesn't go to the senate and dies on their order paper doesn't it?

All pending business dies when Parliament is dissolved or prorogued.

Anyone know better?

-----

Bear in mind that it takes sometimes years between when money is voted and purchases made.

[August1991]

If this is the case, then the subsequent defeat of the government on C-48 only minutes later would have no affect on C-43 as it would have already passed from the Lower to Upper House.

But would the Senate have to pass C-43 before dissolution?

[Joe Blow]

But would the Senate have to pass C-43  before dissolution?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

No, once the bill has made it past third reading in the House, then it survives dissolution of parliament; otherwise very little would ever get done considering how long it takes to pass bills through the senate. Parts of the 04/05 budget bill are still in the Senate; and we've been through an election during that period of time as well.

[Bakunin]

But would the Senate have to pass C-43  before dissolution?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

No, once the bill has made it past third reading in the House, then it survives dissolution of parliament; otherwise very little would ever get done considering how long it takes to pass bills through the senate. Parts of the 04/05 budget bill are still in the Senate; and we've been through an election during that period of time as well.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

but if the liberal finally decide not to vote for the ndp deal, does the government fall ? is it a confidence vote ?

[August1991]

But would the Senate have to pass C-43  before dissolution?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

No, once the bill has made it past third reading in the House, then it survives dissolution of parliament; otherwise very little would ever get done considering how long it takes to pass bills through the senate. Parts of the 04/05 budget bill are still in the Senate; and we've been through an election during that period of time as well.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I have read in news reports that the Senate is still considering previous budget bills but my few web references implied that all Parliamentary business died at proroguing or dissolution. Thanks for the clarification.

[Joe Blow]

but if the liberal finally decide not to vote for the ndp deal, does the government fall ? is it a confidence vote ?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

C-48; being a bill dealing with the disbursment of public funds (a money bill) is by default a matter of confidence. A government loss on any bill dealing with the spending of public funds (or change in taxation for that matter) is by definition a matter of confidence.

[ScottBrison]

but if the liberal finally decide not to vote for the ndp deal, does the government fall ? is it a confidence vote ?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

C-48; being a bill dealing with the disbursment of public funds (a money bill) is by default a matter of confidence. A government loss on any bill dealing with the spending of public funds (or change in taxation for that matter) is by definition a matter of confidence.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That's fine, I was just wondering.

[August1991]

Cadman votes with the government, so PM PM gets another pass.

What's that? 153-153 with the speaker making it 154?

Anyone know the time of the division?