syria What should we expect from Geneva talks on Syrian crisis?

[RedBack]

After Astana talks where the Syrian gov't and opposition representatives met for the first time Russia provided a draft constitution for Syria. Nevertheless, all sides of conflict refused to accept the document and intended to use it as a basis for their own projects. So, the next meeting of the warring sides is scheduled on late February in Geneva. What should we expect from the next round of talks there? Are the sides expected to propose their own constitution drafts?

[Topaz]

IF, everything Eva Bartlett has said as a journalist who has been in Syria, is true, NATO will make sure the war continues, UNLESS, they are going to start another one with Iran. It seems the only violence being reported now,  is in the USA.

[RedBack]

11 hours ago, Topaz said:

IF, everything Eva Bartlett has said as a journalist who has been in Syria, is true, NATO will make sure the war continues, UNLESS, they are going to start another one with Iran. It seems the only violence being reported now,  is in the USA.

NATO is not involved there, only the so-called 'coalition' led by the U.S. So, you think no political process is possible in Syria, right?

[bush_cheney2004]

Syria is now a failed state.   The good news is that things can't get much worse.

The bad news is that basic sovereign control of the nation must be restored amidst various warring factions, poor border controls, heavily damaged infrastructure, low access to capital, etc.

Syria will need proxy protection from the Russian Federation in the short term.   Syria has already received debt relief from Russia and Poland.

"War is expensive, but peace is even more expensive".

[RedBack]

44 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

Syria is now a failed state.   The good news is that things can't get much worse.

The bad news is that basic sovereign control of the nation must be restored amidst various warring factions, poor border controls, heavily damaged infrastructure, low access to capital, etc.

Syria will need proxy protection from the Russian Federation in the short term.   Syria has already received debt relief from Russia and Poland.

"War is expensive, but peace is even more expensive".

Yep, I can't imagine anything worse than war. But, nevertheless, can the international community finally put an end to the internal conflict in Syria and help it defeat terrorists? What are Geneva talks scheduled on late February expected to finish with?

[bush_cheney2004]

1 minute ago, RedBack said:

Yep, I can't imagine anything worse than war. But, nevertheless, can the international community finally put an end to the internal conflict in Syria and help it defeat terrorists? What are Geneva talks scheduled on late February expected to finish with?

 

No, I don't think so.   The previous international protocols commonly used are not as effective.  For instance, Canada is not jumping at the opportunity for peacekeeping with Canadian Forces in Syria, and neither are other nations.   The best the UN can do right now is humanitarian relief missions, and even that is lacking.

Generalizing, we have seen examples of the old international order not working for civil conflicts and religious jihad.   Rational choices and compromise, while logical, do not seem to win the day with such groups.     

IIRC, the Kosovo War in 1999 was the last large scale success (by NATO) using military action to force an acceptable political solution.  Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Syria, Egypt, Sudan, and Somalia are still a mess.  

[RedBack]

1 minute ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

IIRC, the Kosovo War in 1999 was the last large scale success (by NATO) using military action to force an acceptable political solution.  Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Syria, Egypt, Sudan, and Somalia are still a mess.  

Kosovo war started as a geopolitical experiment: the Albanians were massively relocated to the Kosovo region of the Yugoslavia and then allowed to protest and demand independence crying wolves they suffered 'ethnic cleansings' starteb by the Yugoslav special services. So NATO immediately used these calls as casus belli to start its Allied Force operation. The Alliance needed only a cause to start a war which was a real massacre. Actually Yugoslavia was uses as a testing ground for new NATO armed forces cooperation strategy, depleted-uranium munitions effectiveness, internal organs smuggling etc.

Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Syria, Egypt, Sudan, and Somalia are still a mess because the US and NATO needs a mess there as they haven't ran out of oil, gas and people yet.

[bush_cheney2004]

1 minute ago, RedBack said:

...Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Syria, Egypt, Sudan, and Somalia are still a mess because the US and NATO needs a mess there as they haven't ran out of oil, gas and people yet.

 

Different topic altogether...if one wishes for international solutions and resources then don't complain about what is provided by the UN, NATO, USA, or Russian Federation.    Several Arab states are not in such a mess.

[RedBack]

In the meantime the question was about expectations for the Geneva talks on Syrian crisis settlement...

[bush_cheney2004]

2 minutes ago, RedBack said:

In the meantime the question was about expectations for the Geneva talks on Syrian crisis settlement...

 

Expectations are low, so anything will be splendid.   President Assad will remain in power.

[overthere]

Not long ago, it was inconceivable that Assad would remain in power, or in Syria at all. There were quiet talks about his fallback position, which was to get himself, family and a few others out alive  to live in wealthy exile.  Paris?  Teheran?  Moscow?

 

Now it looks like Assad will remain,which makes any peace process much, much harder.  I doubt he cares much, he won the war and has a major backer in Russia.

[kactus]

2 hours ago, overthere said:

Not long ago, it was inconceivable that Assad would remain in power, or in Syria at all. There were quiet talks about his fallback position, which was to get himself, family and a few others out alive  to live in wealthy exile.  Paris?  Teheran?  Moscow?

 

Now it looks like Assad will remain,which makes any peace process much, much harder.  I doubt he cares much, he won the war and has a major backer in Russia.

Whilst that might be true I don't see it often being discussed here as to what will be the alternative to Assad if he was not in power?

A western style puppet government installed? Maybe. Would that make the situation any better? I doubt.

[overthere]

Alternatives???  Every one in Syria including keeping Assad ends in blood, lots of blood. 

There used to be several that began with , ';first Assad dies or leaves, then we talk'.  Not any more.  I don't know any answers.

 

It will help if foreign influences like Hezbollah, ISIS, Iran, Russia, the Kurds and Turkey were all absent, but that s clearly impossible

[GreenS]

On 07/02/2017 at 7:50 PM, overthere said:

Alternatives???  Every one in Syria including keeping Assad ends in blood, lots of blood. 

There used to be several that began with , ';first Assad dies or leaves, then we talk'.  Not any more.  I don't know any answers.

 

It will help if foreign influences like Hezbollah, ISIS, Iran, Russia, the Kurds and Turkey were all absent, but that s clearly impossible

However, now we can see that dialogue between Iran, Russia, Rojava kurds, Turkey allows syrian people to come to a common understanding of their future, to discuss problems, to develop together a new Constitution