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Posted

Super Tuesday primary/caucus elections are coming up on Tuesday, March 1 in the United States with many delegate votes up for grabs. Based on results to date in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina, will existing party front runners extend their advantage or face bold new challenges from their rivals ?

Here are the states in play on Super Tuesday....it's so exciting !

Alaska, Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont and Virginia. Don't forget tiny American Samoa !

Republican = 595 delegates

Democratic = 1004 delegates

Economics trumps Virtue. 

 

Posted

Super Tuesday primary/caucus elections are coming up on Tuesday, March 1 in the United States with many delegate votes up for grabs. Based on results to date in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina..

Among Democrats, we don't know SC yet. And in fact, Nevada was not a clear Clinton win.

As to Republicans, despite bravado, Trump has yet to "put this away."

====

BC, this is the weirdest US presidential election cycle that I have ever witnessed. And as an indifferent foreigner, I go back many, many years. I recall the elections of Giscard and Harold Wilson.

Posted

BC, this is the weirdest US presidential election cycle that I have ever witnessed. And as an indifferent foreigner, I go back many, many years. I recall the elections of Giscard and Harold Wilson.

Not so weird...the Democrats usually field a much larger selection of nominees. 1968 was pretty wild, as was 1992. It's a necessary process just to get ready for the big dance in November.

Economics trumps Virtue. 

 

Posted (edited)

Not so weird...the Democrats usually field a much larger selection of nominees. 1968 was pretty wild, as was 1992. It's a necessary process just to get ready for the big dance in November.

RFK's California win in June 68 and his "let's go to Chicago, and win there" may have meant something at the time. But with his assassination, we'll never know.

For a long time, since 1952 or so, US party conventions are, well, an entérinement - a decided matter. An enclenchement.

With Nevada, it appears that Trump has enclenched or enterined the Republican candidacy for President.

1992 and Poss Perot? Surely you mean 1968, and George Wallace.

=====

Or how about 2002 in France?

I suspect that America's sophisticated coastal left, uh, will present this next US 2016 presidential election as Le Pen vs Civility.

Guess who wins?

Edited by August1991
Posted

So Chris Christie endorses the Donald - unbelievable !!!

Note - For those expecting a response from Big Guy: I generally do not read or respond to posts longer then 300 words nor to parsed comments.

Posted (edited)

So Chris Christie endorses the Donald - unbelievable !!!

For me, this was a done deal with Nevada. The debate in Houston last night simply confirmed it for me. Now, with Christie's endorsement (along with the background info that Christie and his wife have been friends for a long time) removes all uncertainty.

In the debate, Trump was correct when he said that Cruz has no friends in the very place/job where he's supposed to negotiate and make friends.

And Rubio now looks like the angry straight-A student who didn't win the Debate Club.

More pertinently, Trump is already aiming for (pivoting to, as they used to say) the general in the fall. With Trump, there are States in play in the fall that haven't been Republican in over 30 years. According to the old Rove calculus (that even I once ascribed to), places like California and NY were written off as impossible Blue States. With Trump, that's not the case.

=====

But let's see what happens next Tuesday. If Trump beats Rubio in Florida and Trump comes a close second in Texas, then he has a lock on the nomination and it's game over. I'm curious to see how Trump does in Massachusetts and in particular what voter turn out looks like. So far, Republican turn out has been much higher than Democratic.

Trudeau Jnr defeated Harper and the CPC because among 10 potential voters, he took 1 voter from the NDP and he brought 1 new voter to the poll. Trump is bringing non-voters to the booth.

Edited by August1991
Posted

Trump has a chance to sweep Super Tuesday because some polls have him very competitive with Cruz in his home state of Texas. According to 538.com, Rubio currently is not projected to win a single sate. Pretty damning for the so called Trump alternative.

Crazy, me and everyone else figured Trump was just a side show... well he clearly is the Republican Party's Obama insofar as he can attract new voters to the polls.

The race for November will be the most interesting in decades I think.

Posted (edited)

Looks to me like it's gonna be Clinton vs Trump.

No sh*t, Sherlock. The choice in the fall will be these two. Ughhh.

[Almost every cycle, there is talk of split/brokered conventions for as long as I've been following US politics. It doesn't happen. Maybe a historian will correct me - the last convention to go to a second ballot was in 1948/52?]

====

Looking at these early results, I'm more surprised how weak both Rodham-Clinton and Trump are.

Months ago, Sanders was a crank candidate - a socialist (ok, democratic socialist) and yet now he's winning in OK. WTF?

As to Trump, Cruz beat him soundly in Texas. (I expected a closer race.) Elsewhere, Trump's numbers are not as decisive as Rodham's.

Looking to November, I suspect that Trump is worried now about his negatives.

Edited by August1991
Posted

Clinton is looking weaker than expected in a two man person race. Trump has more competitors still in the game.

Most elections are two man person because most politics is local. Trump, apparently, won decisively among the few Republicans in western Mass.

=====

I haven't seen data on turnout numbers but I think that this may be critical. How many people - raw numbers - voted for Trump in Massachusetts and how many people voted for Rodham-Clinton?

Posted
...I haven't seen data on turnout numbers but I think that this may be critical. How many people - raw numbers - voted for Trump in Massachusetts and how many people voted for Rodham-Clinton?

In Massachusetts, Clinton had a 2-1 voter advantage. These are party primaries/caucuses that the "vast majority" of voters do not cast votes in.

Massachusetts

Economics trumps Virtue. 

 

Posted

Republican delegate count so far...Trump almost got to the magic "300":

Republican 1,237 needed
  • 258
    Donald Trump
  • 110
    Ted Cruz
  • 70
    Marco Rubio
  • 23
    John Kasich
  • 8
    Ben Carson
  • 4
    Jeb Bush
  • 1
    Carly Fiorina
  • 1
    Mike Huckabee
  • 1
    Rand Paul
  • 0
    Chris Christie
  • 0
    Rick Santorum

Economics trumps Virtue. 

 

Posted

In Massachusetts, Clinton had a 2-1 voter advantage. These are party primaries/caucuses that the "vast majority" of voters do not cast votes in.

Massachusetts

In November 1972, 1.3 million people in Massachusetts voted for McGovern and 1.1 million voted for Nixon.

Mass population in 1972: 5.7 million. In 2016, 6.8 million.

Amazing. If she can't get Mass in a Dem primary, she's lost the "base" (as the MSM/eGOP would say).

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