Will the Federal Liberal Party exist after this 2015 election?

[August1991]

In 1993, the federal PC party was reduced to 2 seats. And then -depending on viewpoint- it either died, or bounced back (under a new name) and the CPC formed a government in 2006.

In 1984, the federal Liberals were reduced to 40 seats. But then bounced back to forma government in 1993.

In 2015, could the federal Liberals be reduced to, say, 10 seats and essentially die? The death of the federal Liberal Party would be different. First, I see no possible resurrection under a new banner. Current LPC voters would have to go either to the NDP or the CPC. Second, it would have profound repercussions in Quebec because the Liberal brand is so strongly identified with federalism.

Of course, this speculation may be premature. But I have always suspected that the federal Liberal Party was a ramshackle affair that could only exist if it succeeds and delivers the goods. Like a shark, if it stops moving, it dies. Trudeau Snr, when he joined the federal Liberals in 1964, was quite blatant about his choice: he wanted to implement his policies and the federal Liberals were an instrument to do this.

Lastly, I've been thinking recently about the Austrian-Hungarian Empire and how civilized it was. The federal Liberal Party made Canada work. If it dies, will its replacements have the talent/skills to keep this bilingual/multicultural State alive?

Edited August 6, 2015 by August1991

[Topaz]

That's your view but its unfair because ALL parties have hard core supporters. IF any party should disappear it should be the Conservatives and bring back the Progressive Conservatives who had more respectability than Harper's Reform Conservatives and they weren't quite as corrupt either.

[Keepitsimple]

I voted NO.....but if the Conservatives win another majority and the Liberals remain a rump party of 40-50 seats, the possibility of a merger of the Left will eventually be front and Center. I say eventually because if Harper steps down and a new leader - say Brad Wall or Jason Kenney - are accepted by Canadians, then a dynasty could truly be in the making - as would merger negotiations and the start of a true battle of Left versus Right. All that said, a Conservative majority this time around looks tenuous.

[-1=e^ipi]

That's your view but its unfair because ALL parties have hard core supporters.

In how many other parties did the vast majority of members think it was a good idea to vote for a person with 0 policies, but nice hair and a fancy last name?

a Conservative majority this time around looks tenuous.

Unless there is a convenient terrorist attack by ISIS. So ultimately the results of this election will be determined by ISIS.

[Bryan]

I can't see it. Not yet anyway. The LPC brand still has enough true believers that even if it does shank to nothing, it will still take several more elections. Liberal core supporters are different than for other parties (IMO), in that they support the name and the logo more than any specific policy direction.

[PIK]

If the liberals go down big time ,then all they have to do is get rid of trudeau. Put in Garneau and the game is back on.

[cybercoma]

Given Trudeau's performance tonight, they ought to shutter the doors on party HQ.

[Evening Star]

I think they'll exist but will likely go the way of the British Liberal Party and become a third party. Their role as the centre party might eventually be taken over by the Greens.

[August1991]

Political parties are not the government, even less the State and certainly not the country - although some political parties have portrayed themselves as all of those.

The Quebec Conservative Party became the Union Nationale which eventually died, or became the PQ, depending on viewpoint. It lives on as the rump of federal Tory voters in Quebec today that may deliver as many as 10 seats to Harper. (BTW, Duplessis first ran as a Conservative (provincially) and then became Quebec PM when he united some nationalist Liberals and Conservatives.)

Social Credit started as a crazy economic idea and then became a "Western Protest/Nationalist Movement", and then died. In the meantime in Quebec, it became the federal wing of the Union Nationale - like a JV Bloc Quebecois, as Obama might say. (BTW: Joe Clark's biggest mistake in 1979 was arithmetic and not understanding that Fabien Roy was a soul-mate. Mulroney certainly didn't make either mistake and Harper even less so. I still recall sitting in a car dealership a few years ago in the Monteregie and overhearing a guy describe his meeting with Harper, among comments about his new F-150. Not my world.)

IMHO, the PQ is committing suicide with PKP. Which party will represent sovereignist voters in the future? Maybe QS - but it's far too urban. Dunno.

So it's true: Political parties come and go, their fortunes rise and fall.

=====

While I doubt that Stephen Harper would ever make this argument this way, it's a fact that the current federal Conservative Party may soon be the only political party that can claim a lineage/connection to/since Confederation, or even before.

Makes sense; societies based on conservative values survive because they believe in slow change. Or maybe civilized societies exist because they are efficiently managed.

Edited August 7, 2015 by August1991

[hitops]

In 1993, the federal PC party was reduced to 2 seats. And then -depending on viewpoint- it either died, or bounced back (under a new name) and the CPC formed a government in 2006.

In 1984, the federal Liberals were reduced to 40 seats. But then bounced back to forma government in 1993.

In 2015, could the federal Liberals be reduced to, say, 10 seats and essentially die? The death of the federal Liberal Party would be different. First, I see no possible resurrection under a new banner. Current LPC voters would have to go either to the NDP or the CPC. Second, it would have profound repercussions in Quebec because the Liberal brand is so strongly identified with federalism.

Of course, this speculation may be premature. But I have always suspected that the federal Liberal Party was a ramshackle affair that could only exist if it succeeds and delivers the goods. Like a shark, if it stops moving, it dies. Trudeau Snr, when he joined the federal Liberals in 1964, was quite blatant about his choice: he wanted to implement his policies and the federal Liberals were an instrument to do this.

Lastly, I've been thinking recently about the Austrian-Hungarian Empire and how civilized it was. The federal Liberal Party made Canada work. If it dies, will its replacements have the talent/skills to keep this bilingual/multicultural State alive?

You've offered false choices. The most likely answer is that yes it will certainly continue to exist (not simply a possibility), without the requirement that it form the next government.

[August1991]

Pourtant, cette élection pourrait être une des plus importantes de l’histoire du Canada. Comme on dit dans le jargon de la science politique, il pourrait s’agir d’une élection de réalignement, qui transformerait en profondeur l’espace politique canadien. C’est-à-dire que la structure même de l'espace politique changerait, que les pôles dominants ne seraient plus les mêmes.

Mathieu Bock-Cote

===

.... les pôles dominants.... WTF? Le marxisme n'existe plus -sauf parmi les vieux pseudo-intellectuels en occident.

Edited August 13, 2015 by August1991