bush_cheney2004 Posted January 6, 2015 Report Posted January 6, 2015 OK folks....let's make some easy money in the way of oil ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds). What is your strategy and favorite funds to make a killing on the cratered oil sector ? Did you already short the hell out of it....or want to go long for eventual return to higher oil prices ? I am currently looking at U.S. ETFs and individual equities that have been beat up pretty good, but would also buy from the TSX on a good dip. Dividends are welcomed. It's time for capitalists to make some (more) dough the easy way.....maybe toss a few bones to the socialists in the way of capital gains taxes next year. Quote Economics trumps Virtue.
msj Posted January 6, 2015 Report Posted January 6, 2015 I am watching oil itself, UGO, and US gasoline UGA. These are relatively simple, follow the price of the commodity, type ETF's. Have to watch contango a bit but decay is of little to no concern. On the leverage side you can do the 3 times thing with UWTI and DWTI. So, if oil goes up 10% then UWTI would go up 30% and DWTI would go down 30% (all numbers are "ish" as in the real world it does not quite work this way). Contango here is more important and decay can be a bitch - just look at UGAZ/DGAZ over the past year in relation to the price of natural gas. In terms of ETF's that follow real companies: I look at the offerings from iShares and Vanguard in both Canada and the US. Quote If a believer demands that I, as a non-believer, observe his taboos in the public domain, he is not asking for my respect but for my submission. And that is incompatible with a secular democracy. Flemming Rose (Dutch journalist) My biggest takeaway from economics is that the past wasn't as good as you remember, the present isn't as bad as you think, and the future will be better than you anticipate. Morgan Housel http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/01/14/things-im-pretty-sure-about.aspx
bush_cheney2004 Posted January 6, 2015 Author Report Posted January 6, 2015 ....On the leverage side you can do the 3 times thing with UWTI and DWTI. So, if oil goes up 10% then UWTI would go up 30% and DWTI would go down 30% (all numbers are "ish" as in the real world it does not quite work this way). You are braver than I, plus it seems that the leveraged ETF choices do not have significant share volume compared to something like NYSE:USO, which I bought today. The Connoco-Phillips (COP) dividend is always nice too. I will scour the TSX for some opportunities that are really oversold as well. Quote Economics trumps Virtue.
Bonam Posted January 6, 2015 Report Posted January 6, 2015 I'm long USO since oil was at about $60. Not too worried about the current decline, to me it seems obvious it'll provide a nice return eventually. For shorter term trades I prefer the leveraged ETFs msj mentions, but for longer term plays like betting that oil will eventually go back to $100+, decay can be too big of a factor over those timescales, so a 1:1 ETF like USO better suits those needs. Quote
bush_cheney2004 Posted January 6, 2015 Author Report Posted January 6, 2015 I'm long USO since oil was at about $60. Not too worried about the current decline, to me it seems obvious it'll provide a nice return eventually. Agreed.....it is hard to "catch a falling knife". I will average down on USO as needed. I don't see oil going below $40, but what the hell do I know ! Quote Economics trumps Virtue.
Argus Posted January 8, 2015 Report Posted January 8, 2015 (edited) I got out of oil a while back, and even out of the pipelines in November. What did I go into? American Airlines, Southwest Airlines, Delta, and Federal Express. Every time oil goes down they go up. Edited January 8, 2015 by Argus Quote "A liberal is someone who claims to be open to all points of view — and then is surprised and offended to find there are other points of view.” William F Buckley
Wilber Posted January 10, 2015 Report Posted January 10, 2015 I sold some energy stocks last month because I needed a loss to offset some of my capital gains last tax year. I'm hoping they will drop some more so I can buy them back in a few weeks. Good luck on those airline stocks, I won't go near them. Just understand they are speculative, not a real investment. Quote "Never trust a man who has not a single redeeming vice". WSC
Argus Posted January 10, 2015 Report Posted January 10, 2015 I sold some energy stocks last month because I needed a loss to offset some of my capital gains last tax year. I'm hoping they will drop some more so I can buy them back in a few weeks. Good luck on those airline stocks, I won't go near them. Just understand they are speculative, not a real investment. That's okay. I'm hearing oil may be a bear market for years to come. I have no intention of going anywhere near energy stocks. My airline stocks are up 20%-40% in the last couple of months. And when oil comes back, I'll exit airlines and get back into that. Quote "A liberal is someone who claims to be open to all points of view — and then is surprised and offended to find there are other points of view.” William F Buckley
msj Posted January 10, 2015 Report Posted January 10, 2015 Nothing wrong with trading... as long as you make money. Lots of people do it just fine since you just have to get the general trend right and be willing to hold through thick and thin if your timing is "wrong." Quote If a believer demands that I, as a non-believer, observe his taboos in the public domain, he is not asking for my respect but for my submission. And that is incompatible with a secular democracy. Flemming Rose (Dutch journalist) My biggest takeaway from economics is that the past wasn't as good as you remember, the present isn't as bad as you think, and the future will be better than you anticipate. Morgan Housel http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/01/14/things-im-pretty-sure-about.aspx
Argus Posted January 10, 2015 Report Posted January 10, 2015 Nothing wrong with trading... as long as you make money. Lots of people do it just fine since you just have to get the general trend right and be willing to hold through thick and thin if your timing is "wrong." Holding through thick and thin is the opposite of what I do. I look for good companies, or industries (in the case of sector ETFs) with reasonable upward momentum. If that momentum reverses to a significant degree, I bail. Interestingly, I have a 'trial portfolio' I've been monitoring for two years now where I simply choose the stocks on my watch list with the highest momentum, and change over the lowest producers every month, and that portfolio consistently out performs anything else I can come up with. I just haven't been brave enough to use it. Quote "A liberal is someone who claims to be open to all points of view — and then is surprised and offended to find there are other points of view.” William F Buckley
Wilber Posted January 10, 2015 Report Posted January 10, 2015 Nothing wrong with trading... as long as you make money. Lots of people do it just fine since you just have to get the general trend right and be willing to hold through thick and thin if your timing is "wrong." Airlines are cash flow machines in a very competitive industry. Much of their income is discretionary spending, so they are the first to get hit in a recession and the last to recover. Money can be made trading them but they are not a long term investment IMO. Quote "Never trust a man who has not a single redeeming vice". WSC
msj Posted January 10, 2015 Report Posted January 10, 2015 What I mean by holding through thick and thin is that when I am buying a beaten up stock or industry I don't lose any sleep if I buy early and have to wait for price increases. I have bought US banks and US home builders "too soon" yet managed to earn an excellent return. Quote If a believer demands that I, as a non-believer, observe his taboos in the public domain, he is not asking for my respect but for my submission. And that is incompatible with a secular democracy. Flemming Rose (Dutch journalist) My biggest takeaway from economics is that the past wasn't as good as you remember, the present isn't as bad as you think, and the future will be better than you anticipate. Morgan Housel http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/01/14/things-im-pretty-sure-about.aspx
msj Posted January 24, 2015 Report Posted January 24, 2015 A question for BC 2004: with Trannies not making new highs despite lower gas prices is it time to raise cash and buy into oil stocks in a few weeks/months after a market pullback? Strange, no? that Trannies are trading where they are? Quote If a believer demands that I, as a non-believer, observe his taboos in the public domain, he is not asking for my respect but for my submission. And that is incompatible with a secular democracy. Flemming Rose (Dutch journalist) My biggest takeaway from economics is that the past wasn't as good as you remember, the present isn't as bad as you think, and the future will be better than you anticipate. Morgan Housel http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/01/14/things-im-pretty-sure-about.aspx
bush_cheney2004 Posted January 24, 2015 Author Report Posted January 24, 2015 A question for BC 2004: with Trannies not making new highs despite lower gas prices is it time to raise cash and buy into oil stocks in a few weeks/months after a market pullback? Strange, no? that Trannies are trading where they are? Strange...yes...but we've had market divergence before. Also, the Dow isn't what it used to be with respect to Tranny linkage. Rail and trucking services have their own issues to work out. Channeling Warren Buffet, I almost went all in for new new tanker car orders and railroads , but capacity is limited at any price. I am satisfied with my entry point with oil at $48, even if it goes lower. I figure there is more long term upside than short term downside. Of course, we should always keep some powder dry for lower price opportunities in and outside the energy sector; I agree that a broad correction is overdue. Quote Economics trumps Virtue.
bush_cheney2004 Posted February 3, 2015 Author Report Posted February 3, 2015 Oil ETF > USO is up 8% today on higher oil prices. Time to think about an exit strategy...fast, easy money ! Quote Economics trumps Virtue.
Derek 2.0 Posted February 3, 2015 Report Posted February 3, 2015 Oil ETF > USO is up 8% today on higher oil prices. Time to think about an exit strategy...fast, easy money ! And up 20% overall in the last four days of trading..........prices plummet, the smart invest and the companies trim the fat, good for the bottom line......as I said to a member in another thread, I expect $50-60 bbl by the time the Federal Government releases it budget in April, and ~$80+ a bbl by Summer driving season.......... Context is something the MSM media has never been good at, well always relying upon the bad news stories that sell..........What was never offered to contrast with the one million+ bbl glut of oil, is that said amount is half the capacity within one Supertanker.......... Quote
bush_cheney2004 Posted February 3, 2015 Author Report Posted February 3, 2015 ...What was never offered to contrast with the one million+ bbl glut of oil, is that said amount is half the capacity within one Supertanker.......... Never thought of it that way....less than one ultra large crude carrier. That's a pretty slim margin. This ain't no dead cat bounce ! Quote Economics trumps Virtue.
Derek 2.0 Posted February 3, 2015 Report Posted February 3, 2015 Never thought of it that way....less than one ultra large crude carrier. That's a pretty slim margin. [tinfoil hat] Or the production of the fields around Mosul.......any JDAMs go astray? [/tinfoil hat] This ain't no dead cat bounce ! Not at all.......Once it returns to $80 bbl my planned Spring purchase of a new Camaro is upgraded to a Corvette........ And if OPEC's Sec-Gen is right, maybe a 35' Boston Whaler too Quote
bush_cheney2004 Posted February 3, 2015 Author Report Posted February 3, 2015 (edited) Rex Energy [REXX] is up 24% today....I'm in for more. Edited February 3, 2015 by bush_cheney2004 Quote Economics trumps Virtue.
Bonam Posted February 4, 2015 Report Posted February 4, 2015 Still a lot more upside left than downside. Oil will be $80+ again within the year is my guess. Quote
Derek 2.0 Posted February 4, 2015 Report Posted February 4, 2015 Still a lot more upside left than downside. Oil will be $80+ again within the year is my guess. $80-90 a bbl by Summer driving season..... Quote
msj Posted March 17, 2015 Report Posted March 17, 2015 Now that oil has gone up and back down near to those lows, how's that easy money coming? The problem with being in Canada is it is not only the price of oil but the Canadian dollar. I have an incentive to buy USO or even UGA every time I fill up my tank with premium gas. Would be nice to hedge directly against oil or gas. But that damn currency. I just know that when I buy USO/UGA in USD that the price will go up in USD but the CDN $ will claw back some of those gains. So not to ruin it for all of you, I have sacrificed and still have not bought in. You should probably thank me as when I do buy in everything will probably go down further. If you're lucky, I will get distracted, forget to buy in, and everything will go up. Then I can whine when I fill up at the pump. Or maybe I will buy XEG in Canadian dollars and hope that works out.... So many choices. Quote If a believer demands that I, as a non-believer, observe his taboos in the public domain, he is not asking for my respect but for my submission. And that is incompatible with a secular democracy. Flemming Rose (Dutch journalist) My biggest takeaway from economics is that the past wasn't as good as you remember, the present isn't as bad as you think, and the future will be better than you anticipate. Morgan Housel http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/01/14/things-im-pretty-sure-about.aspx
bush_cheney2004 Posted March 17, 2015 Author Report Posted March 17, 2015 Doesn't matter to me...buy low...sell high. I unloaded USO @ $19 for a decent gain and wait for another entry point. Seeing higher gas prices does not always correlate with higher ETF stock price. The world is swimming in oil right now.....U.S. storage capacity is maxing out. Quote Economics trumps Virtue.
msj Posted March 18, 2015 Report Posted March 18, 2015 Yeah, my problem is I love buying things and hate selling. Looking forward to capacity maximizing out as I want to see what that does to the price - $35? $30? Quote If a believer demands that I, as a non-believer, observe his taboos in the public domain, he is not asking for my respect but for my submission. And that is incompatible with a secular democracy. Flemming Rose (Dutch journalist) My biggest takeaway from economics is that the past wasn't as good as you remember, the present isn't as bad as you think, and the future will be better than you anticipate. Morgan Housel http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/01/14/things-im-pretty-sure-about.aspx
bush_cheney2004 Posted March 18, 2015 Author Report Posted March 18, 2015 The price drop does not seem to be shuttering production for wells that are already online....just new drilling. To get needed revenue, suppliers have to pump more, not less. Iran could add another 500,000 bpd if sanctions are lifted. So yeah....$30 oil is certainly possible, but that is probably the bottom. The U.S. dollar is also kicking ass, the Fed wants to raise interest rates, and the U.S. government is buying back debt for a song. Putin must be really pissed off (more than normal) by now. Quote Economics trumps Virtue.
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