Malaysian Airliner Reportedly Shot Down in east Ukraine

[Derek 2.0]

What options does he really have? Given the Europeans' reliance on Russian gas there is no way for the US to make sanctions stick. What do you want them to do? Invade?

I made that quite clear earlier.....nothing.

[Derek 2.0]

Clearly, they thought it was a Ukrainian air force plane.

Clearly you have proof?

[Derek 2.0]

And doing nothing will perfectly satisfy the Republicans, right?

I doubt it.......

[Derek 2.0]

Easy to say when the majority of your gas doesn't come from Russian pipelines...

And the lack of diversity within Europe’s energy infrastructure is the fault of who?

[Argus]

So what is it that you are trying to say? Can you let us know your thoughts on who shot down the plane? And it sounds like you also have evidence. Can you provide evidence of that as well?

Does it really make ANY difference if it was some stupid Russian conscripts operating this thing as opposed to stupid Russian-Ukrainian cats-paws operating it?

[Argus]

The solution is crippling economic sanctions put in place on Russia's energy industry, coupled with a massive expansion of oil and natural gas exploration and extraction in North America, to export to Europe, in place of the energy they'll lose from Russian supply.

Yeah, well, that's not happening any time soon. We're still only talking about building pipelines and LNG terminals. Major exports to Europe are years away.

[Derek 2.0]

Looking at this incident from a cynical point of view now the Ukrainian government has a free hand to massacre the rebels as much as they like without having to fear international condemnation.

That’s certainly an interesting point.

[Argus]

Looking at this incident from a cynical point of view now the Ukrainian government has a free hand to massacre the rebels as much as they like without having to fear international condemnation.

Then I wish they'd set about doing it and wrap this business up.

[Argus]

Why not? Crimean Tatars, like other ethnic communities within Russia and Ukraine, had mandatory military service, coupled with centuries of distrust of the Russians.

American special forces would not be able to drive that thing through all the road blocks in that area without firefights!

And I'm willing to bet the time and route of Putin's plane is not something they put on a press release.

[Argus]

Clearly you have proof?

What exactly is your scenario other than the bizarre suggestion the Tartars drove the thing around - knowing where Putin's plane was going to be, of course, and shot it off?

[Argus]

And the lack of diversity within Europe’s energy infrastructure is the fault of who?

That's more than a little irrelevant at this point. It is what it is.

[GostHacked]

They'd have to be pretty stupid to think Vladimir Putin travels in commercial Malaysian airline planes.

IT would be the colours of Red and Blue and White. Like the Russian flag. And you tell me if the can spot the difference at 30,000 feet. Up close it's obvious they are different.

[GostHacked]

No, it wasn't stolen, it was given to them, by Russia. No rag-tag rebels stole anything. And many of these rag-tag rebels are trained by Russian special forces. Why is it that Russia can do no wrong at all in your eyes?

By the same token, you can't call out the rebels in Syria that the US/NATO is helping train and equip. Where is your disconnect here?

[GostHacked]

Mr's Benghazi 'What difference does it make.' chimes in on the incident. Calling on the EU to compromise Gazprom. Never let a tragedy going to waste.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nkTRJgDkNFg#t=57

[Signals.Cpl]

Looking at this incident from a cynical point of view now the Ukrainian government has a free hand to massacre the rebels as much as they like without having to fear international condemnation.

I dont think so, that would still be a war crime and someone would still hold them accountable even if it is Putin as a pretext to occupy the region specifically or Ukraine as a whole not that I think the Russians care about a justification but it never hurts.

[ASIP]

You say it's impossible, but then go on to say they didn't recognize the plane as civilian -- which pretty much means they thought it was a military plane -- which you said was impossible.

The keyword is "rebels". It is impossible for rebels. This can be done only by Russian professional personnel. I agree with you that they confused the plane.

[GostHacked]

The keyword is "rebels". It is impossible for rebels. This can be done only by Russian professional personnel. I agree with you that they confused the plane.

So why would Russian rebels shoot down Putin's plane if the rebels are supporting joining Russia?

[Signals.Cpl]

The keyword is "rebels". It is impossible for rebels. This can be done only by Russian professional personnel. I agree with you that they confused the plane.

Wow, they cant be professional now can they?

[ASIP]

I'm sure that many, if not most, ethnic Russians in Eastern-Ukraine truly don't feel like being part of the same nation with Ukrainians and therefore support secession but certainly not all of them support secession and especially not through an armed uprising.

Similarly, certainly as many ethnic Russians would in principle support secession the very obvious fact that these guys who lead this Republic of Donetsk are clearly nutjobs makes many people think again the wisdom of the idea of secession.

This is not true. It has been a fact noted in Eastern Europe that the actual fighting is happening not between ethnic Ukrainians and ethnic Russians, but between almost exclusively ethnic Russians. These are Russians from Central, Eastern and Southern Ukraine. One group is rebels, the other group is men defending their homes from the Russian plague. Ukrainian speech in the fighting area is extremely rare.

There is, of course, a layer in the Ukrainian society that are nostalgic for the Soviet Union and would support joining Russia, but their number is very small.

[Big Guy]

...

There is, of course, a layer in the Ukrainian society that are nostalgic for the Soviet Union and would support joining Russia, but their number is very small.

How much is very small and how would you find out?

[Signals.Cpl]

This is not true. It has been a fact noted in Eastern Europe that the actual fighting is happening not between ethnic Ukrainians and ethnic Russians, but between almost exclusively ethnic Russians. These are Russians from Central, Eastern and Southern Ukraine. One group is rebels, the other group is men defending their homes from the Russian plague. Ukrainian speech in the fighting area is extremely rare.

There is, of course, a layer in the Ukrainian society that are nostalgic for the Soviet Union and would support joining Russia, but their number is very small.

Care to share a source? So are you saying that Ukraine's military is not involved?

[GostHacked]

Care to share a source? So are you saying that Ukraine's military is not involved?

I don't think it was the Russian rebels or Ukrainian forces. If Putin's plane was the intended target, and it were to be shot down, you'd see large things happening very quick. It's like these idiots with power want to start a new war. A new big war.

Ukraine has nothing to gain by shooting down a commercial airliner. They might gain something by shooting down Putin. But then you'd see a huge show of force from Russia.

The rebels have nothing to gain by shooting down a commercial airliner OR shooting down Putin.

None of this really makes any sense.

[ASIP]

As to military expertise on the rebel side, it was reported that during the Crimea takeover by Russia, anywhere from 70% to 40% (depending on the source) Ukrainian soldiers chose to stay and join the Russian military. How many of those joined the rebels in the East? Yes, about half of the Ukrainian forces are conscripts. I would assume that a proportional number came from the Eastern regions that are now in rebellion. I would again assume that many of those soldiers from those contested regions who were forced into the Ukrainian military joined the rebels.

Here you are talking about dozens, maximum several hundred men. Strelkov many times complained that local people do not want to join rebel "army."

[ASIP]

Let me see if I can summarize your positions:

1) The crew of the weapon system were Russians because none of the separatists knew how to operate the system in question.

My answer is that it is likely that over entire territory of the separatists there would be at least a few conscripts who were trained on that system be it a year, five years of fifteen years ago so it does not necessarily mean that it is a Russian crew, doesn't mean it is not either but cant prove it one way or the other.

Not only. That the missile and crew are Russians was said by rebels in the telephone calls.

You answer is wrong. Many military experts, including Russians have explained that the contingent comprising the rebel "army" are not capable to operate this equipment.

You have no idea about conscripts in Ukrainian army. They cannot be professionals by definition. They serve 9 to 12 months, while basic training requires 6 to 12 months. In AA missile units conscripts perform secondary duty. Qualified job is done by professional officers, who are trained for 5 years and have periodic exercises. Without exercises qualification is lost.

2) You seem to assert that the weapon system was Russian and that it was and is impossible for the Ukrainian military to lose said weapon system and its ammunition and/or the weapon system was captured but it was disabled.

My answer is that:

1) Ukraine has lost plenty of equipment, weapons, munitions and vehicles to the separatists to at least make it a little believable for them to have captured the system more or less intact.

2) If it was disabled before capture it could be repaired, and being overrun may mean that destroying munitions is lower on the priorities than say staying alive therefore if the vehicle was captured the munitions most likely will be close by.

I dont think there is much doubt that it is the separatists who did it so I don't see why you are arguing.

Your answer is not realistic. Capturing a tank in the battle cannot be compared to stealing a AA missile launcher from a guarded base deep in the Ukrainian territory.

A disable AA missile vehicle can be theoretically repaired, but it requires: spare parts, repair personnel, repair facility including test equipment, time to do the job. Rebels can theoretically get spare parts. All the rest is practically impossible to have. And still, no missiles.

It is much more easier and practical to bring a vehicle from Russia. And it has been done.

[ASIP]

How much is very small and how would you find out?

Watch Ukrainian news about pro-Russian meetings. Per million of population those meeting can attract dozens of people.