Philippe Couillard, next leader of the PLQ

[August1991]

L'ex-ministre libéral de la Santé Philippe Couillard a l'intention de se lancer dans la course à la direction du Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ), a pu confirmer Radio-Canada.

Sa décision est prise à 90 %, selon le chef de bureau de Radio-Canada à l'Assemblée nationale, Sébastien Bovet. Après une absence de quatre ans du monde politique, il doit encore mesurer ses appuis au sein du PLQ, ainsi que parmi les députés et les militants libéraux. Il fera part de sa décision d'ici deux semaines.

Radio-Canada

It's almost certain that he will run, and if he does, it is almost certain that he will win.

And then, depending how he handles the rehabilitation of the Quebec Liberal Party, Couillard will shortly be PM of Quebec.

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This past general election in Quebec shows that there is a large chunk of voters - about 35% or more - who despite claiming that they want change in fact simply want the status quo. Charest came within a sliver of getting re-elected.

[TheNewTeddy]

At this rate, the next PLQ leader may be Lucien Bouchard!

[August1991]

At this rate, the next PLQ leader may be Lucien Bouchard!

Richard Martineau recently interviewed Bouchard:

IMHO, Bouchard is wrong in many ways - he is a man of his generation - but there is no doubt whatsoever that he holds Quebec to heart and wants above all to promote its interests.

(BTW, I like the Francs-Tireurs video interview style with the cuts. It's how people think, and how the Internet works.)

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What of Couillard, and Quebec?

On the night of the election, watching the results and comments (mostly TVA because of the panel), I heard Mario Dumont make a comment at the end of the night that struck me: "many Quebecers want things to stay the same".

In a "normal" society, the official opposition (PQ) should have won a majority. Or, the CAQ should have replaced the PLQ. In fact, the past Quebec election is remarkable because the PLQ (the Quebec Liberal Party) is still viable.

Heck, if Charest had won his seat in Sherbrooke, if the PLQ had won one more seat, Marois would not be PM now.

Conclusion?

As Dumont knows only too well (and Dumont was once a jeune Libéral who then left to create an unsuccessful ADQ party), many, many Quebec voters want the status quo.

IMV, Quebec is now divided three ways: one third want a separate country, one third want the status quo and one third want "change". As Dumont noted, we should pay attention to the one third who want the status quo.

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IMHO, if Couillard decides to run for PLQ leader, plays well the results of the Charbonneau Commission, "reforms" the PLQ, then we will have another Quebec election in about one year.

If Couillard plays his hand well, he will be PM - in a solid majority government.

Edited September 22, 2012 by August1991

[August1991]

All things considered, it is hard not to see Couillard as leader of the PLQ in March 2013, and the new opposition provoking a Quebec general election as soon as June.

The PQ will keep its support (lose slightly to QS or ON in specific ridings, despite talk of coalition) but the CAQ will lose votes, and seats. The PLQ will form a government, possibly a majority.

It depends how Couillard plays the Charbonneau Commission but so far he has been picture-perfect.

The PQ (Marois/Lisée) are sadly in fantasyland. They are like Clark in 1979.

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Politics: you never know!

Edited January 20, 2013 by August1991

[August1991]

Couillard may lose it. But if Bachand wins, there will still be a general election before June, or the end of the year.

This reign of women provincial PMs is an interregnum. The revolution has yet to occur, and I frankly think that it never will.

[August1991]

Plus de la moitié des circonscriptions ont désormais tenu leur assemblée de choix des délégués en prévision du congrès qui, le 17 mars, choisira le successeur de Jean Charest. Et à moins d'un imprévu ou d'une énorme tempête de neige, l'ex-ministre Philippe Couillard devrait l'emporter dès le premier tour de scrutiny.

La Presse

So the next question is: will the Quebec general election occur before the summer, or after?

(I'd ask the same question in Ontario.)

Cue the analysts analyzing why female politicians can't last...

Edited February 25, 2013 by August1991

[Peanutbutter]

August1991, I appreciate your great insight into Qc politics, an insiders view if you will. Thank you for posting this I have found it most interesting as I have been reading about this since before I became a member here. Do you really think that the PLQ can overcome the vote deficit?

[August1991]

Do you really think that the PLQ can overcome the vote deficit?

The better question is whether Couillard can overcome his connection to Arthur Porter.

So far, he's managed to stick-handle his way through the questions by arguing that other politicians (eg. Harper) were taken in too. Harper, the Anglo, can likely walk away from this sorry federalist mess. Couillard may not have such an easy exit.

Edited March 2, 2013 by August1991

[August1991]

The next question is when will Couillard, or the CAQ, pull the plug on this Marois government.

I suspect that it will be sooner rather than later. Maybe even before the summer.

I reckon that Couillard knows he can't lose, and Legault foolishly believes that he can win.

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For those who follow these things, the Fonds de solidarité of the FTQ once saved Legault's AirTransat with a critical injection. (Flaherty and Harper are now removing this fund's special tax privilege.) IOW, Legault has benefitted from Québec Inc but what is more pertinent, Legault mistakenly believes that he's endowed with special skills of financial management/observation.

This link, from 1999, is hilarious:

Lucien Bouchard a présenté M. Legault comme le symbole de «la garde montante des entrepreneurs québécois». Il faut plutôt parler d’un beau cas de B.S. corporatif lorsqu’on sait que Air Transat est une créature du Régime d’épargne actions (RÉA) et du Fonds de solidarité de la FTQ.

Link

(In the future, the Internet record is going to be a minefield for politicians.)

Edited March 25, 2013 by August1991

[August1991]

Now, I would predict a Quebec election in late fall 2013, and Couillard as likely majority PM; CAQ as the big seat loser.

We may even see Khadir/David as joint Official Opposition leaders! Not. But QS will see its popular vote total rise.

[August1991]

«Le (projet de loi) 34, c’est la hausse des impôts des particuliers, c’est la contribution santé qui, elle aussi, est une deuxième hausse d’impôt pour le monde, (...) et la contrebande de tabac», plaide M. Bachand, en entrevue avec le Journal. Selon lui, la hausse de la taxe sur les cigarettes contribue inévitablement à favoriser la contrebande.

Les caquistes, qui se sont tous présentés en Chambre pour voter contre le budget en novembre, n’ont pas l’intention de se défiler. Ils s’opposeront eux aussi au projet de loi 34 et personne ne manquera à l’appel, assure-t-on.

Journal de Montréal

I'm not sure that this budget measure, the health tax in particular, will defeat the PQ government but it's obvious that Couillard wants an election. If I were him, I would want one.

I reckon that a government defeat in the National Assembly will occur when Couillard manages to make the PQ and the CAQ leader imagine that they will both win seats in an election. Given the hubris and cloud-building fantasy involved, that may be sooner rather than later.

Edited May 29, 2013 by August1991

[August1991]

People are talking about a December 2013 general election. I'm not so certain.

IMHO, the election will arrive when the CAQ (Legault) thinks that it (he) can win seats.

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Politics is like most other competitive businesses. If I could offer a comment about politics as a different business than others, it would be this: politicians have big egos.

(Barack Obama in his autobiography described politics as a competitive business where success/failure is exposed to the world.)

Edited September 28, 2013 by August1991

[August1991]

I wuz wring. By all appearances, a Quebec general election will occur when Pauline Marois decides to have one. (Talk about suicide.)

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Marois plans to have a "wedge-issue" election. (Other commentators - eg. Joanne Marcotte/Chantal Hebert - don't seem to understand the use/usage of the term "wedge issue".)

A wedge-issue election is a Pierre Trudeau/Karl Rove/Brian Mulroney tactic: Voters have only two choices: Option A or Option B. If you choose Option B, you're a terrorist.

For example,Harper intends to make the next federal election a wedge-issue/referendum on NDP/Trudeau/socialism or decency. And Marois intends to make the next Quebec election a wedge issue election: Êtes-vous Québécois, ou non ?

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Whether Marois or Harper, "wedge elections" are the latest fad among Western politicians who lack original ideas, Hollywood-style looks, or ability to attract votes..

A wedge election? Politicians create a controversial issue and ensure that you - the politician - are on the popular side,with the most votes: "Force voters to choose between people with only two homes. and those without a cottage on the water."

A wedge election Norwegian style? I wonder.

Edited October 12, 2013 by August1991

[bleeding heart]

I wuz wring. By all appearances, a Quebec general election will occur when Pauline Marois decides to have one. (Talk about suicide.)

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Marois plans to have a "wedge-issue" election. (Other commentators - eg. Joanne Marcotte/Chantal Hebert - don't seem to understand the use/usage of the term "wedge issue".)

A wedge-issue election is a Pierre Trudeau/Karl Rove/Brian Mulroney tactic: Voters have only two choices: Option A or Option B. If you choose Option B, you're a terrorist.

For example,Harper intends to make the next federal election a wedge-issue/referendum on NDP/Trudeau/socialism or decency. And Marois intends to make the next Quebec election a wedge issue election: Êtes-vous Québécois, ou non ?

====

Whether Marois or Harper, "wedge elections" are the latest fad among Western politicians who lack original ideas, Hollywood-style looks, or ability to attract votes..

A wedge election? Politicians create a controversial issue and ensure that you - the politician - are on the popular side,with the most votes: "Force voters to choose between people with only two homes. and those without a cottage on the water."

A wedge election Norwegian style? I wonder.

For a man with whom I almost always disagree, August...I gotta say I think this an excellent post!