Conservative Support Dips Post-Election

[maplesyrup]

"Our polling indicates that the negative movement in Conservative support

heading into voting day has continued causing a four point drop in support

since that time," explained Nik Nanos, SES Research President and CEO.

"This trend was particularly true in Atlantic Canada and Ontario."

Regionally, the Liberals continue to dominate in Atlantic Canada and

Ontario. Current polling puts the Liberals at 51% in Atlantic Canada and

49% in Ontario among decided voters. However, Quebec continues to be an

Achilles heel for Paul Martin and the Liberals, as the Bloc Quebecois

continues to hold a commanding lead at 53% of decided voters compared to

28% for the Liberals.

"The two key battlegrounds of Ontario and Quebec continue to be a mixed

bag. The Liberals gained four points in Ontario, however they have lost

six points in Quebec since the federal election," said Nanos.

Polling August 5th to August 11th, 2004 (Random Telephone Survey of 1,000

Canadians, MoE ±3.1%, 19 times out of 20). Percentages may not add up to

100 due to rounding.

Ballot Question (857 Decided Voters, MoE ±3.4, 19 times out of 20)

Liberal - 38% (up 1 from election)

Conservative - 26%(down 4 from election)

NDP - 17% (up 1 from election)

BQ - 14% (up 2 from election, up 4 in Quebec since election)

Green - 5% (up 1 from election)

*14% of the 1,000 individual surveyed were undecided.

On the SES website (www.sesresearch.com), you can find full questions,

detailed charts, tables as well as additional commentary.

Feel free to forward this e-mail.

Cheers,

Nik

-------------------------------------

Nikita James Nanos, CMRP

President & CEO

SES Research

T 613.234.4666

C 613.276.2731

www.sesresearch.com

No suprises here as Mr "Let's Invade Iraq" Harper is deadweight, and needs to be replaced, as i have recommended all along. Every party is up, including the Greens, save for the Conservatives, who have dropped 4 percent to only 26%.

At present there is only 9% difference between the Conservatives and the New Democrats, so if this trend continues, and now with Jack Layton in the House of Commons, these two parties may well be fighting it out for the second federalist place in Parliament.

[Big Blue Machine]

Consevatives needs a Ontario or Quebec leader. Ok, a Quebec leader is too unrealistic. If Mike Harris could have ran in the leadership race, it would have been a race between him, Stronach and Harper. There are 106 seats in Ontario and 75 I think in Quebec. But successful Ontario premiers have a history of having a high non-runner status in leadership races. Bill Davis did it in 83, he COULD have won but there was a very uncertain spot of voters to vote against him, The West. He didn't speak french that well. David Peterson could have ran in the liberal leader in 90, but didn't.

[maplesyrup]

Do you really think it matters where you come from? I am not so sure about that.

I think more to the point for the Conservatives is that the Alliance wing is firmly in control of the party, and with their approximatel 1/4 voter support, the Conservatives are at their maximum support level they can expect to receive from the Canadian electorate.

If Conservatives chose a more moderate leader from the West I believe they would do much better than their present levels of support.

[Big Blue Machine]

There are more seats in Ontario and in Quebec than the whole West combined. Plus if the Conservatives get a popualr leader from Ontario, they could win 45+ seats.

[maplesyrup]

If Harper decides to throw in the towel, and I think he should, he has done well, but can go no further, who apart from Stronach would be the leading choices to replace Harper?

[maxwell]

Stan/leftcoastguy/maplesyrup of course Harper can go further. The results showed Harper can win in Ontario, and Quebec. Of course the polls after a election where the Conservatives didn't do as well as the media expected would results in polls show them going down.

[maplesyrup]

Nothing like a little bit of denial. I suggested from Day One that Stronach would have been a better chioce. I think the election results speak for themselves - the Liberals will probably never be as vulnerable again.

Harper has had his kick at the can but it's time for him to relinquish the reins.

[ticker]

Do you really think it matters where you come from? I am not so sure about that.

lets see campell, clark, turner VS trudeau, chretien, malroney, martin...

I see lots of PMs in that list that didn't come from quebec had hung onto power for a long time.

the liberal party knows if they get a leader from quebec and throw some money at the maritimes they can have long governments.

the only exception is turner but he spent alot of years on ontario; while not leader as long as a quebec leader still longer then a western based leader...does this mean layton has got a better shot then harpper....

i suppose martin will rate in the middle time line range like turner as someone who is not a pure quebecer... but after the last election anything is possible with ontario voters.

[maxwell]

I suggested from Day One that Stronach would have been a better chioce.

She barely could win her riding, she would have been speaking english in the French debates, of course you wanted Belinda your a NDPer.

[Big Blue Machine]

Stronach will be the next Kim Campbell.

[idealisttotheend]

I'm sorry but Ms. Stronach is "not intellectually inclined" and doesn't have seem to have the stomach for politics (she left a few interviews before her alloted time). There is absolutely no evidence she has any skills or assets to make her fit for politics and her supporters seem to be people who simply want a women leader and look up to Stronach for her womanly charms and "buisness record" If you want a female leader go find Deb Grey, hit her over the head and drag her back to Ottawa (you better give her a couple of million though too since that seems to be the only way one wins a leadership these days). Deb Grey is a women with the brains, guts and integrity to lead a party or a country. Stronach got her daddy's company and her mommy's looks.

I don't see why you want Harper gone though MS. I agree he is a liability but if you are such a strong supporter of the NDP don't you want the Cons to be burdened with Harper's history?

Stronach will be the next Kim Campbell.

Worse, Campbell was a bad campaigner in the wrong place at the wrong time. Stronach can only dream of Campbell's intellectual abilities, political experience or personal fortitude.

Sorry, I just can't stand Stronach or the fact that I can't see a single positive asset she has and yet all sorts of seemingly smart people keep saying that she ought to have been the leader. Mind boggling.

[caesar]

Don't under rate Stronach just because she is a female. She has plenty of smarts and has successfully run a large company. She just needs to put in some time as a contributing member in parliament before seeking the leadership. She should distance herself from Mulroney. Let her cut her baby teeth as a MP and we will see how she can take care of business. Harper's constant yelling and whining criticism of anything the government does is irritating. I think the opposition leader should show a little class and agree with the government position on occasion; then he won't have to lie and pretend that he supported a popular action later. (Iraq) That lying was an insult to the intelligence of Canadian voters.

[idealisttotheend]

Don't under rate Stronach just because she is a female.

Aha. My rating of Ms. Stronach has nothing to do with her gender. I think she is often over rated because of her gender and people avoid criticizing her because they know they will be accused of sexism.

She has plenty of smarts and has successfully run a large company.

What did she contribute to Magna? Her Dad built it, is there any evidence that it was run any better by her than it would have been run by you or I. Did she make major decisions or simply approve those of advisors.

I think you are right that I guess we should see how she does as an MP but I really think this is the worst case of elitism as I don't see any reason she was considered for the leadership or is in politics except for the company her dad bequethed her. Basically she was in the leadership race because she had a large wad of cash that better and proven parlimentarians like Strahl or Grey didn't have and that offends me deeply.

But again, wait and see how she does as an MP. Alright, alright.

[ticker]

I think the opposition leader should show a little class and agree with the government position on occasion

yeh right; just like you thougth the liberal opposition should agree with mulroney's policies instead of finding fault.

[takeanumber]

Stronach is a class-priveledge tory in the oldest sense.

If she does work hard, then fine, she works hard.

But that doesn't change the fact that she's been afforded far more opportunities than the vast majority of Canadians based on her birthright.

We may have abolished titles in Canada, but there's still quite a bit of lingering Tory-ism aftertaste.

As for the Cons, the reason for the dip is obvious.

Nobody likes to support losers.

It's the bandwagon effect, and in part, what makes the Liberal party so venerable.

I'm not saying that it's right.

I'm just saying that it happens.

[caesar]

yeh right; just like you thougth the liberal opposition should agree with mulroney's policies instead of finding fault.

I never indicated all policies; and perhaps they did on occasion. I certainly did not hear any Liberal leader saying he supported the previous government after he was constantly on the media proclaiming the opposit and even went to the USA to apologize for the Canadian stand. Sort of kills Harpers credibility when come election time he claims to have supported not sending Canadian troops to Iraq.

[ticker]

Those old what if questions like what if the US found WMD and Canada looked like a chicken because we were pandering the Quebec provincial election in the prior months leading up to the war and didn't want to support the US even emotionally because it might give the separatists some ammo leading up to the provincial election.

The media torpedoed the old reform in 2000 by the what if 2 tier health question but the liberals never get taken to task. In the last election a former liberal premier from the Maritimes said the feds should stop the handouts and the media never raised an eyebrow but a conservative would be crucified for saying a politically incorrect statement like that

[ticker]

When the liberals danced on the edge of the truth they said in the election he "would have" not "he will" send Canadians to Iraq to be killed (with our 1 helicopter and 1 tank). All those Ontario voters that used IRAQ as an excuse not to vote harper conviently buried the fact that after the war harper was not planning on sending Canadians when there were no WMD.

It was clear harpper was not going to send Canadians after the fact when it was there was no WMD. But that definition between pre war and post war was blurred by the liberals

It must be nice to have 20/20 hindsight... but the liberals were just lucky to be on the right side of the fence because they were actually pandering to Quebec over the IRAQ war at the time.

[Cartman]

There is a role for the official opposition to play in government and they should not always differ entirely with the government on every issue. Ideally, on issues such as the BSE problem, the opposition parties should be offering their insights to ensure that a government run program helps all Canadians. A good opposition MP does not want such programs to fail.

If sound advice is offered but ignored (esp. by this government), then the official opposition has every right to seek power and show Cdns how they would do things differently and better than the existing gov't. The Iraq issue shows how the Cons. failed in this regard (flipflopping rather than being consistent) and how it burned them in the election. They looked too opportunistic. They also had not developed a platform that was different from the existing gov't (so why vote for them) as they did not have the time for a policy convention.

If they could not get their act together before the election, then how can they expect to manage the federal government?!

[ticker]

The Iraq issue shows how the Cons. failed in this regard (flipflopping rather than being consistent) and how it burned them in the election.

Harper is in a no win situation. You say the conservatives should not flip flop on issues. When Harper was consistent and didn't flop on the child porn gaff after the statement was already out he was criticized for being too hard on martin and not backing down.

Which is it do you want a politician that is consistent or one that changes positions to match the mood of the day.

[Cartman]

A good politician does not have to flipflop because s/he clearly offers Cdns an agenda that they can accept or reject. This is what made Douglas a great premier. As well, I think that Trudeau was very arrogant, but I also think he stood up for what he believed and never relinquished. You cannot lead by polls; "dogs know what to do with polls". At the end of the day, people will make their own judgements good and bad.

Imagine, if you will, it is discovered that nuclear weapons are found in Iraq and that they had concrete plans to use them on Israel. I realize that this is highly unlikely. In this case, Harper's original suggestions would be proven correct. It shows more character to admit a mistake than to hide it. He underestimated Cnds. when he did this.

I believe Klein knows this and will be easily re-elected.

[Big Blue Machine]

If a leader flip-flops, that shows weak leadership. Clark did in 79, with the Irsael embassy, and the decision to sell out Petro-Canada and Loto-Canada.

[Michael Hardner]

Plus if the Conservatives get a popualr leader from Ontario, they could win 45+ seats.

I agree, but Harris isn't it. He has floated trial baloons a few times, and the poll numbers just don't look good.

Mr. Harris might as well get used to being in the boardroom.

I think Mr. Harper has an excellent chance at winning if he stays on. The east will be familliar with him next time around, and unless the "new" Liberals prove to be superlative managers, they will not be able to live up to their promises.

Harper will only need to reign in the social conservatives, and Martin will have no attack left.

[Big Blue Machine]

Mr.Harper won't beat the Liberals in Atlantic Canada, if the election is forced in the next 1 and a half year, he will win more seats. Mr. Harper isn't scary. Paul Martin said Mr. Harper was going to destroy health care. Paul Martin did that when he was finance minister.

[ticker]

It was one thing to run a 'what if ' 2 tier health on the alliance in 2000 and try to speculate what they might do in the future if they were to be elected.

But the anti conservative group used the past tense phrase 'would have’ supported IRAQ and tried to pretend that is the equivalent of a hypothetical future 'what if' argument.

It just doesn't have the same weight unless you are grasping at straws for any reason to reelect the liberals and prepared to believe anything.