Etobicoke Centre By-election (possibly)

[nittanylionstorm07]

The party is polling at 14% in the riding, if that ended up being the result on election day it wouldn't be great for the NDP in the GTA.

I think you underestimate the intelligence of those in the GTA.

[madmax]

The party is polling at 14% in the riding, if that ended up being the result on election day it wouldn't be great for the NDP in the GTA.

It would be normal. Many ridings base vote will remain the same regardless of the overall political fortunes of a party in the polls. The CPC are at 64% in some ridings in Alberta, but 3% in some ridings in Toronto. In this particular riding they are still in a competitive range and the Liberals are still strong, and in this case may end up retaining the riding after all.

Barring some unforeseen transisition this is not in the NDP cards..... and if ..... if.... the NDP were to come from 14% And take this riding.... all ridings are on the table and its not good news for Libs or Cons.

[punked]

The party is polling at 14% in the riding, if that ended up being the result on election day it wouldn't be great for the NDP in the GTA.

I am personally shocked that the riding where Harper grew up would not vote NDP. No wait I am not because I understand the make up of the country. Again I fail to see how this would effect the NDP. If they got 15% of the vote it would the best performance ever in this ridding. That is all we need to look at. Not the crazy high bar you set for them for no reason other then you are Liberal who is looking for one victory any victory.

BTW there wont be an election

Edited May 23, 2012 by punked

[Newfoundlander]

I am personally shocked that the riding where Harper grew up would not vote NDP. No wait I am not because I understand the make up of the country. Again I fail to see how this would effect the NDP. If they got 15% of the vote it would the best performance ever in this ridding. That is all we need to look at. Not the crazy high bar you set for them for no reason other then you are Liberal who is looking for one victory any victory.

BTW there wont be an election

The NDP are polling in the mid 30's in Ontario after recieving about 25% last year and have a fair bit of momentum. If the NDP end up finishing a distant third, and don't improve their vote, I don't see how that's a good thing for the party. The Liberals would definitely try and take advantage of that.

[punked]

The NDP are polling in the mid 30's in Ontario after recieving about 25% last year and have a fair bit of momentum. If the NDP end up finishing a distant third, and don't improve their vote, I don't see how that's a good thing for the party. The Liberals would definitely try and take advantage of that.

Again this is the riding where Harper grew up. It is a rich rich riding, no one expects the NDP to do anything here getting just 15% of the vote would be a record and that is all they need to do.

Edited May 23, 2012 by punked

[Smallc]

Again this is the riding where Harper grew up.

You keep mentioning that as if it's somehow relevant.

[Newfoundlander]

Again this is the riding where Harper grew up. It is a rich rich riding, no one expects the NDP to do anything here getting just 15% of the vote would be a record and that is all they need to do.

The NDP do well in polling with high income earners. Not surprised by your responses though, any Dipper would try and downplay this.

[punked]

The NDP do well in polling with high income earners. Not surprised by your responses though, any Dipper would try and downplay this.

Yes the NDP should make up a 30 point gap from their historical high in this riding to win or they are done. That is not you setting the bar high at all.

[Newfoundlander]

Yes the NDP should make up a 30 point gap from their historical high in this riding to win or they are done. That is not you setting the bar high at all.

They should be able to make gains in the riding.

[madmax]

You keep mentioning that as if it's somehow relevant.

Its not relevant. Which is why its better to look at historical trends.

[madmax]

They should be able to make gains in the riding.

Possible, but hard to say, this riding is lower then the Provincial Average for the NDP and nearly double the Provincial average for the Liberals. It has never had an NDP MP but historically trends between Liberal and Conservative/Progressive Conservative.

This is Harpers Riding to lose. And it wouldn't be surprising to see Liberal rebound in the GTA as it is the only region of the Province where there is still some LPC strength.

I can't see this By Election as being anything but an CPC/LPC fight. I see an outcome like Vaughn only in reverse.

[punked]

They should be able to make gains in the riding.

So any gains by your standards would be a win for the NDP? So getting 15% would be all they have to do. Thank you I said that a few pages ago when you were setting a crazy high bar.

[Newfoundlander]

So any gains by your standards would be a win for the NDP? So getting 15% would be all they have to do. Thank you I said that a few pages ago when you were setting a crazy high bar.

They won 14.7% last election. I don't see why if they are up close to 10 percentage points throughout the province why they can't make similar gains here. They won over 20% in Etobicoke Lakeshore and Etobicoke North and represent the riding adjacent to Etobicoke Centre.

[punked]

They won 14.7% last election. I don't see why if they are up close to 10 percentage points throughout the province why they can't make similar gains here. They won over 20% in Etobicoke Lakeshore and Etobicoke North and represent the riding adjacent to Etobicoke Centre.

Look at the demographics. The medium income makes this ridding a race between the two corporate parties.

[Newfoundlander]

Look at the demographics. The medium income makes this ridding a race between the two corporate parties.

If only polling didn't show the NDP with a 9 point lead over the Liberals with those making over $100,000. The party also won the affluent neighbouring riding of Parkdale High Park.

http://www.environics.ca/uploads/File/Environics-Research---Federal-Vote-Intention-May-17-2012%281%29.pdf

Edited May 26, 2012 by Newfoundlander

[Topaz]

IF the NDP were to win the next election it will be for the reason voters know what the Liberals are about, then know what theAlliance/Tories are all about and they hope that the NDP will be that party that isn't like the other two. Voters will be searching for a party that is strong economically but with heart, with social programs. We know the present party doesn't have heart and we know the Libs does but, voters don't want to lose their votes, so if the NDP is leading in the polls over the Liberals, the NDP will win. At least, that's what I'm hearing at my coffee shop.

[punked]

If only polling didn't show the NDP with a 9 point lead over the Liberals with those making over $100,000. The party also won the affluent neighbouring riding of Parkdale High Park.

http://www.environics.ca/uploads/File/Environics-Research---Federal-Vote-Intention-May-17-2012%281%29.pdf

We aren't talking 100,000 dollars type of Toronto affluent. In Toronto some teachers make that much. We are talking 1,000,000 a group of people the NDP says right now are not paying the fair share. You dont know what you talking about.

Edited May 26, 2012 by punked

[jacee]

IF the NDP were to win the next election it will be for the reason voters know what the Liberals are about, then know what theAlliance/Tories are all about and they hope that the NDP will be that party that isn't like the other two. Voters will be searching for a party that is strong economically but with heart, with social programs. We know the present party doesn't have heart and we know the Libs does but, voters don't want to lose their votes, so if the NDP is leading in the polls over the Liberals, the NDP will win. At least, that's what I'm hearing at my coffee shop.

I agree, Topaz, especially the part about 'we know what the Liberals and Tories are about' ... corruption and toadying to corporate 'growth' that has no observable benefit for Canadians and leaves us with toxic destruction of environments. Mulroney had his personal corruption scandal, then the Libs, now Harper with his incessant toadying to the oil barons and millions in taxpayer money going to oil sands promotion, and the total meltdown of Ignatieff/Liberals, and Bob Rae has not distinguished himself at all as leader ... in fact he hasn't said a single intelligent thing, imo.

There will always be the explosively anti-union hardliners who will always oppose the NDP on that principal, but for the other 80%+, the NDP is becoming a really viable alternative.

Even the wealthy are now receptive to arguments and concerns about the environment, perhaps recognizing the potential in jobs and growth in the booming environmental industry, now mainstream. Business and domestic industry are more flexible and as opposed to foreign takeover of our economy as workers are.

I don't know the demographics of Etobicoke-Centre but I would guess it might be lots of successful small-medium business entrepreneurs and I see that as fertile ground for the NDP. Again, Harper is selling out our interests to foreign megacorps at the spped of light these days, and I think domestic business/industry has a problem with that too and will be looking for a viable alternative, and the Libs simply are not viable.

Edited May 26, 2012 by jacee

[Canuckistani]

The NDP seems to be becoming viable as a governing party (early days tho) and I will likely vote for them. But to think they'll be any less corrupt once in power is delusional. They have their base to pay off, same as any other party, and the ministers of any party get to liking the perks that come with the jobs, and figure they are entitled to their entitlements. So really the only question for people is whether the NDP delivers policies that benefit them.

[punked]

The NDP seems to be becoming viable as a governing party (early days tho) and I will likely vote for them. But to think they'll be any less corrupt once in power is delusional. They have their base to pay off, same as any other party, and the ministers of any party get to liking the perks that come with the jobs, and figure they are entitled to their entitlements. So really the only question for people is whether the NDP delivers policies that benefit them.

Well the first thing the NDP did in NS was pass a law to make MLA's post everything they buy on the peoples dollars online and cut the MLA's expense accounts in half. They got rid of 5 minsters and the Premier took on a portfolio with no extra pay. All I am saying is actions speak louder then worlds.

[bleeding heart]

The NDP do well in polling with high income earners. Not surprised by your responses though, any Dipper would try and downplay this.

The NDP, like the other major parties, has a broad-based appeal to people from different socio-economic classes.

Obviously.

Here in NB, although the party doesn't win much, it has long, long had support from a broad swath of low-income working class types, many of whom are fairly socially conservative.

I don't know why you--who has spent some time saying how you voted for the NDP, and the rest of the time insulting the "socialists" who vote for them--are now implying that the NDP should be beholden to a single economic type of voter (for...some reason, unstated)....but the other parties need no such restrictions.

Edited May 27, 2012 by bleeding heart

[Newfoundlander]

We aren't talking 100,000 dollars type of Toronto affluent. In Toronto some teachers make that much. We are talking 1,000,000 a group of people the NDP says right now are not paying the fair share. You dont know what you talking about.

The average household income in Etobicoke Centre is $105,881 in Parkdale High Park it's $105,406.

[Newfoundlander]

I don't know why you--who has spent some time saying how you voted for the NDP, and the rest of the time insulting the "socialists" who vote for them--are now implying that the NDP should be beholden to a single economic type of voter (for...some reason, unstated)....but the other parties need no such restrictions.

What?

[bleeding heart]

What?

Sigh.

You say any "dipper" (you know, of the party you voted for, but now claim they're a bunch of insane socialists) would "downplay" the horrible fact that many high-income earners support the NDP.

I countered with an obvious and uncontroversial fact: that the NDP, exactly like the other major parties, attracts supporters from a wide range of economic backgrounds.

I'm wondering why this critique of the NDP is not applied to the other parties, when it incontrovertibly applies to them as well?

[Newfoundlander]

Sigh.

You say any "dipper" (you know, of the party you voted for, but now claim they're a bunch of insane socialists) would "downplay" the horrible fact that many high-income earners support the NDP.

I countered with an obvious and uncontroversial fact: that the NDP, exactly like the other major parties, attracts supporters from a wide range of economic backgrounds.

I'm wondering why this critique of the NDP is not applied to the other parties, when it incontrovertibly applies to them as well?

I wasn't referring to high income earners when I said punked would deny that, I was referring to them being able to expand from their 2011 vote share.

Edited May 27, 2012 by Newfoundlander