What Impact Will Provincial Politics Have On The Next Federal Election

[Newfoundlander]

I was wondering what impact provincial politics will have on the next federal election in 2015. Will the popularity of the premiers and their governments effect how the Conservatives, NDP, Liberals and Bloc do?

I have heard many people say over the years that Bob Rae's NDP government in Ontario had a big impact on the federal NDPs poor showing in the 1993 election and the elections after that. I also remember reading one time that a few things Dalton McGuinty did during either the 2004 or 2006 federal election had an impact on how the federal Liberals did in that province on election day.

I was thinking about the big changes we saw in the 1993 election and looked back at what governments were in power provincially at that time, and when they came to power. I was wondering what impacts these governments had on the outcome of the federal election, and I am wondering what impacts they may have on the next federal election. What I noticed was in 1993 the NDP were governing in BC, Saskatchewan and Ontario, and had been for a few years. The PC Party was in power in Alberta and Manitoba and was just defeated in Nova Scotia. In Newfoundland and Labrador, PEI, New Brunswick and Quebec the Liberals were in power.

Besides Quebec, which the Bloc Quebecois won, the Liberals had not been governing in the larger provinces. The Alberta PC Party had just been elected over the Liberals, who had been in the political wilderness for decades. The PCs were in power in Manitoba and has jus lost re-election in Nova Scotia. The NDP were forming and unpopular government in Ontario and were governing in BC and Saskatchewan.

Anyway the longwinded point I am trying to get at is if the Chretien Liberals benefitted in 1993 by most voters not being ruled by provincial Liberals? I think many people would say this had an impact.

As well if you look at what happened since then, a party named "Liberal" has governed in the majority of provinces. In the 2011 election an unpopular Liberal government was in power in BC, Ontario and Quebec and not long out of power in New Brunswick. The NDP have two fairly popular governments in place and while the Conservatives aren't affiliated with any provincial party the conservative parties that are in power are popular.

I've seen people mention that the popularity of an Adrian Dix led government in BC could have an impact on how the federal NDP do in 2015, what about a PC government in Ontario? Are we really seeing an end to the Liberal Party and parties across Canada? Is it beneficial to the Harper Conservatives that while they have relationships with some provincial parties they are not affiliated with them and can't really take the blame for their decisions?

[August1991]

Anyway the longwinded point I am trying to get at is if the Chretien Liberals benefitted in 1993 by most voters not being ruled by provincial Liberals? I think many people would say this had an impact.

Huh? WTF?

Newfoundlander, do you mean that Chretien benefitted because there were few provincial Liberals?

After this, your post is gibberish.

-----

1. In Canada, provincial parties are provincial. Federal parties are federal. Ignore names.

2. In federal/provincial elections, the same person/voter can vote differently.

3. In Canada, ideology is irrelevant. Canada's federal politics are all about region.

4. Canada works best when individual Canadians are not forced to choose between their region and Canada.

Edited May 1, 2012 by August1991

[Newfoundlander]

Huh? WTF?

Newfoundlander, do you mean that Chretien benefitted because there were few provincial Liberals?

Few in power in the provinces at that time, therefore Chretien had less baggage to deal with from the unpopular decisions made by his provincial counterparts.

[Newfoundlander]

1. In Canada, provincial parties are provincial. Federal parties are federal. Ignore names.

2. In federal/provincial elections, the same person/voter can vote differently.

3. In Canada, ideology is irrelevant. Canada's federal politics are all about region.

4. Canada works best when individual Canadians are not forced to choose between their region and Canada.

I agree with all of this. However, there are still a lot of people who won't vote for a federal party because they are dissatisfied with the provincial party of the same name. The Ontario Liberals and federal Liberals are not affiliated, but I don't know how someone can deny that McGuinty's government has influenced how people voted federally. After Jack Layton's breakthrough last year, and then his death months later, the provincial NDP in just about every province saw a bump/surge in polling. Even though, while affiliated, all the parties ran on different platforms.

[August1991]

However, there are still a lot of people who won't vote for a federal party because they are dissatisfied with the provincial party of the same name. The Ontario Liberals and federal Liberals are not affiliated, but I don't know how someone can deny that McGuinty's government has influenced how people voted federally. After Jack Layton's breakthrough last year, and then his death months later, the provincial NDP in just about every province saw a bump/surge in polling. Even though, while affiliated, all the parties ran on different platforms.

Newfoundlander, I gather that you're a Smallwood Liberal, and you identify with the Chrétien Liberals. Whatever.

Let me restate a truism of federal Canada:

4. Canada works best when individual Canadians are not forced to choose between their region and Canada.

[Newfoundlander]

Newfoundlander, I gather that you're a Smallwood Liberal, and you identify with the Chrétien Liberals. Whatever.

Let me restate a truism of federal Canada:

What are you even getting on with?

[punked]

The Liberals might no be governing any province by the time the next Provincial election comes around. They might be a third party in most provinces. That doesn't matter for the Liberals who have no link between provincial and Federal parties but the NDP has a different model. If they are leading or in opposition in most provinces that is going to give them a distinct advantage because the Federal and Provincial parties are tied. That is how they have built their bases by tying the parties so they are keeping one set of voter lists that up dated more regular, they are using trained campaign workers more often from the provincial teams who know the local politics and can message better. I think it is a bad thing for the Liberals if the NDP are beating them in the provinces because of the party structure.

I think the Cons use an even different model from both the NDP and Liberals and it works for them quite well. I think provincial politics has less an effect on the Cons as the NDP and Liberals.

[-TSS-]

I would have thought it is the other way round; People use the provincial elections as an opportunity to protest against unpopular federal governments.

[bleeding heart]

What are you even getting on with?

He honestly doesn't know.

[Newfoundlander]

I would have thought it is the other way round; People use the provincial elections as an opportunity to protest against unpopular federal governments.

I think it ends up working both ways.