fellowtraveller Posted April 10, 2012 Report Share Posted April 10, 2012 Because 2015 is when the only poll that matters will next take place... Punked and some others like whathisname above are convinced that polls should get you extra seats right now. The blubbering and outrage will be epic.... I can hardly wait.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WLDB Posted April 10, 2012 Report Share Posted April 10, 2012 Who cares about 2015? They're tied for first place now, which is noteworthy for the party. Still meaningless. Broadbent got close to Mulroney in the polls in 88 but it didnt translate into anything substantial. 2015 is when the important things will happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newfoundlander Posted April 10, 2012 Report Share Posted April 10, 2012 Still meaningless. Broadbent got close to Mulroney in the polls in 88 but it didnt translate into anything substantial. 2015 is when the important things will happen. Broadbent led Mulroney in the polls. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punked Posted April 10, 2012 Report Share Posted April 10, 2012 Broadbent led Mulroney in the polls. In one poll. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newfoundlander Posted April 10, 2012 Report Share Posted April 10, 2012 In one poll. That's what I thought and then I saw or heard something recently about leading for so many months, maybe it was just his personal numbers or something. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punked Posted April 10, 2012 Report Share Posted April 10, 2012 That's what I thought and then I saw or heard something recently about leading for so many months, maybe it was just his personal numbers or something. Thats is how they poll backed then when there was no election every 3-4 months. So that one poll span that whole time period. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newfoundlander Posted April 11, 2012 Report Share Posted April 11, 2012 Thats is how they poll backed then when there was no election every 3-4 months. So that one poll span that whole time period. I looked at some archives and only see the one poll that mentions the NDP with 40% and leading, which is the only one I had ever heard of. However, this bit of an article mentions a Gallup poll that showed them just behind the Liberals and mentions that two polls in recent weeks had them tied with the Liberals for first place. http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/thestar/access/472788121.html?FMT=ABS&FMTS=ABS:FT&type=current&date=Jun+10%2C+1987&author=Joe+O'Donnell+Toronto+Star&pub=Toronto+Star&desc=Popularity+of+NDP+highest+ever+Gallup+says&pqatl=google Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punked Posted April 11, 2012 Report Share Posted April 11, 2012 (edited) I looked at some archives and only see the one poll that mentions the NDP with 40% and leading, which is the only one I had ever heard of. However, this bit of an article mentions a Gallup poll that showed them just behind the Liberals and mentions that two polls in recent weeks had them tied with the Liberals for first place. http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/thestar/access/472788121.html?FMT=ABS&FMTS=ABS:FT&type=current&date=Jun+10%2C+1987&author=Joe+O'Donnell+Toronto+Star&pub=Toronto+Star&desc=Popularity+of+NDP+highest+ever+Gallup+says&pqatl=google I only remember one ever and the one your source is the only one I can find. Edited April 11, 2012 by punked Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newfoundlander Posted April 11, 2012 Report Share Posted April 11, 2012 Seems like it happened a bit. After Bob Rae's victory in 1990 they led in a poll and the article says the last time they led was in September 1987. They hit 40% in June 1987. http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/thestar/access/472308171.html?FMT=ABS&FMTS=ABS:FT&type=current&date=Oct+24%2C+1990&author=&pub=Toronto+Star&desc=NDP+surges+into+lead+with+38%25+in+new+poll&pqatl=google http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/thestar/access/472830961.html?FMT=ABS&FMTS=ABS:FT&type=current&date=Jun+26%2C+1987&author=(CP)&pub=Toronto+Star&desc=NDP+grabs+the+lead+with+40%25+poll+finds&pqatl=google Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punked Posted April 11, 2012 Report Share Posted April 11, 2012 Seems like it happened a bit. After Bob Rae's victory in 1990 they led in a poll and the article says the last time they led was in September 1987. They hit 40% in June 1987. http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/thestar/access/472308171.html?FMT=ABS&FMTS=ABS:FT&type=current&date=Oct+24%2C+1990&author=&pub=Toronto+Star&desc=NDP+surges+into+lead+with+38%25+in+new+poll&pqatl=google http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/thestar/access/472830961.html?FMT=ABS&FMTS=ABS:FT&type=current&date=Jun+26%2C+1987&author=(CP)&pub=Toronto+Star&desc=NDP+grabs+the+lead+with+40%25+poll+finds&pqatl=google Some good numbers considering they never had Quebec in play that means they were getting 40% with out a third of the country in play. They must have had some crazy Ontario numbers or something. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newfoundlander Posted April 11, 2012 Report Share Posted April 11, 2012 Some good numbers considering they never had Quebec in play that means they were getting 40% with out a third of the country in play. They must have had some crazy Ontario numbers or something. In one of the polls it mentioned they were tied with the Liberals in Quebec. They did have 48% after Bob Rae's win in Ontario so that alone would account for a large national number. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madmax Posted April 11, 2012 Report Share Posted April 11, 2012 (edited) Thanks August.. this thread is quite a brain teaser. I like all the comments... I am more inline with WB and FT comments... so need need to repeat. I just thought this idea/scenario for a discussion thread is an A+ Edited April 11, 2012 by madmax Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted April 14, 2012 Author Report Share Posted April 14, 2012 (edited) After seeing the grand showing Rae/NDP made provincially I don't see the great rush to get the Fed NDP hook into Ontario anytime soon, but then I remember our last "erection" putting McPremier back at the helm, even weakly. Maybe after the budget is killed the people will again reject the NDP & give Torys another try.Mulcair has been careful to say that the NDP has been successful at the provincial level (a debateable point) except for the single exception of Rae in Ontario.I suspect that this will be the standard NDP line if (or when) Rae becomes the "official" federal Liberal leader. This line has the added advantage that the Ontario NDP base blames Rae for the fiasco. (Frankly, I don't. The recession of the early 1990s defeated Bush Snr, and Bob Rae.) If Rae is not chosen the official federal Liberal leader, then Mulcair can step away from this line of argument. Mulcair can recognize that Trudeau just is not smart enough to manage either job, and is not a huge asset in a province that essentially loathed his father.. But Trudeau Jnr is a huge asset in "vote rich" Ontario.IMHO, regions are the base motivator of Canada's federal politics. Nowadays, Conservatives are far under the radar in too much of Quebec. Harper is not defending his point of view and Maxime Bernier is a voice in the Beauceron wilderness. The federal Liberals in Quebec are still persona non grata. That leaves the NDP as the only alternative - except the Bloc - and Quebecers are very tired of the old federalist/sovereignty divide. Even before the 2011 election, the NDP was a viable opposition in the Maritimes and capable of electing MPs in Northern Ontario, various parts of BC and urban Manitoba. This makes the NDP a "national" party. Ontarians generally choose any party that is "national". With Trudeau fils beside Mulcair, much of urban/southwest Ontario will vote NDP. The federal NDP would create a new coalition of Ontario/Quebec/Maritimes that kept the Liberals in power for decades. Edited April 14, 2012 by August1991 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted April 14, 2012 Author Report Share Posted April 14, 2012 (edited) The only way the federal NDP could garner enough votes to displace the Tories is if they appeared to have modernized and become much more realistic. No more blaming everything on business, no more thinking they can solve unemployment by increasing the public sector workforce while allowing real jobs from industry to flee the country and no more increasing welfare doles with no thought about how to pay for it.They had better get it right the first time! WB, I think you have a (southern) Ontario perspective on the NDP. Elsewhere in Canada, the perception is different.For example, in Quebec, the NDP might as well be the US Democratic Party. In NB, PEI and Nfld, the NDP is an unknown quantity, far removed from local candidates. And in Alberta, the NDP is known as a collection of honest populist leftists. In Saskatchewan, the NDP is a known quantity - possibly too well known. ----- Nevertheless, you make a good point. I suspect that our next federal election will put many Canadian voters between a rock, and a hard place. There will no longer be a mushy middle. Smart politicians put ordinary voters in a quandary and force us to choose. And in Canada, the "centre" appears to be regional. Edited April 14, 2012 by August1991 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted April 14, 2012 Author Report Share Posted April 14, 2012 (edited) Heck if they get any lower Dion might switch as well the NDP has talked to him many times about considering it.Hmm. Dion and Trudeau Jnr.That's a good comparison. Both are confirmed federalists. Both are native francophone Quebecers. Both defend the environment, leftist causes. Both are honest. Both speak good French. In French Quebec: Dion is irritating smart; Trudeau Jnr is irritating kid-of Outremont. Does the federal NDP want either in their ranks? If so, I figure that this choice is all about votes in Ontario. He made idiotic comments about Quebec separation, showing that he's not a staunch federalist.Why did he make the comments?There's your clue, Sherlock. Trudeau (both) are/were staunch federalists. The BQ/PQ line is that the federal NDP success in Quebec in 2011 was an "anyone but Harper" vote: Quebecers voted Vegas/NDP to defeat Harper. I disagree. IMHO, the 2011 federal election in Quebec was a "tired of federalist/sovereignist debate" vote. As I argue often here, in federal Canada, politics is regional. Edited April 14, 2012 by August1991 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted May 5, 2012 Author Report Share Posted May 5, 2012 (edited) Years ago, giving benefit to doubt, I thought that Paul Wells was a competent journalist. Then, I doubted. Now, I think that he's incompetent. (English Canada is badly served. French Canada is better served...) Wells did not ask the critical question to Justin Trudeau: "Will you cross the floor and join the NDP?" At most, we got this: “One of the things I said publicly when we first appointed Bob Rae to be interim leader and people said, ‘Oh, do you think he’s going to stick to it?’—I said it doesn’t matter. It doesn’t matter. If we don’t have a leadership candidate who can hold Bob to his promise, or defeat Bob, then we need Bob to be the leader. It’s a self-regulating system.” Link---- A good journalist? She or he asks the critical question. Edited May 5, 2012 by August1991 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted June 16, 2012 Author Report Share Posted June 16, 2012 (edited) http://www.torontosun.com/2012/03/14/trudeau-endorses-future-coalition-with-ndp If I were a journalist, I would want to know more clearly Justin's opinion of Mulcair and the NDP.Next, I would want to know what Dion thinks of Rae's decision.And lastly, I can predict what Coderre thinks. The journalist question is what Mulcair thinks of Coderre. Edited June 16, 2012 by August1991 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cybercoma Posted June 16, 2012 Report Share Posted June 16, 2012 Do you know what anglophone Canada doesn't care about? The opinions of Dion and Coderre. Coderre did say he would run for leadership when he was interviewed during the NDP leadership convention. Let's see if he still does. There are rumours flying around about John Manley and Mark Carney though. The latter would be a game changer if he ran and won it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoDucks Posted June 16, 2012 Report Share Posted June 16, 2012 (edited) Mark Carney would be interesting as the Liberal leader. I dunno about how others feel, but he has always come across as fairly non-partisan to me. Also, Harper would have a hard time playing the economy against him, and really, what does he have beyond that? Edited June 16, 2012 by TwoDucks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punked Posted June 16, 2012 Report Share Posted June 16, 2012 Mark Carney would be interesting as the Liberal leader. I dunno about how others feel, but he has always come across as fairly non-partisan to me. Also, Harper would have a hard time playing the economy against him, and really, what does he have beyond that? Mark Carney can still go places and have more power as a central banker. They were kicking his name around for the IMF and I am sure they will continue to do so. Why would he want to leave that to jump to a third party? I just don't see it. Get out of the dream world, he wouldn't be able to put together a run anyway, he has no team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cybercoma Posted June 16, 2012 Report Share Posted June 16, 2012 Mark Carney can still go places and have more power as a central banker. They were kicking his name around for the IMF and I am sure they will continue to do so. Why would he want to leave that to jump to a third party? I just don't see it. Get out of the dream world, he wouldn't be able to put together a run anyway, he has no team. While that's all true, Peter Mansbridge was talking pretty seriously about it. Andrew Coyne, Chantal Hebert, Bruce Anderson, and Althia Raj, were quite surprised and sceptical as well, of course. Perhaps Mansbridge was hit up by the LPC to put that idea out there to try and convince Carney to run. Who knows? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newfoundlander Posted June 16, 2012 Report Share Posted June 16, 2012 While that's all true, Peter Mansbridge was talking pretty seriously about it. Andrew Coyne, Chantal Hebert, Bruce Anderson, and Althia Raj, were quite surprised and sceptical as well, of course. Perhaps Mansbridge was hit up by the LPC to put that idea out there to try and convince Carney to run. Who knows? None of them seemed to find it odd that he may want to seek office someday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punked Posted June 16, 2012 Report Share Posted June 16, 2012 While that's all true, Peter Mansbridge was talking pretty seriously about it. Andrew Coyne, Chantal Hebert, Bruce Anderson, and Althia Raj, were quite surprised and sceptical as well, of course. Perhaps Mansbridge was hit up by the LPC to put that idea out there to try and convince Carney to run. Who knows? The media loves a race and right now there are no big names outside of Trudeau and you can't have a race if there is only really one guy running. This happens all the time the next big savior is some hypothetical who is never going to run but the media puts the idea out there so they have something to talk about. It is the echo Chamber. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cybercoma Posted June 16, 2012 Report Share Posted June 16, 2012 (edited) The media loves a race and right now there are no big names outside of Trudeau and you can't have a race if there is only really one guy running. This happens all the time the next big savior is some hypothetical who is never going to run but the media puts the idea out there so they have something to talk about. It is the echo Chamber. I don't know about that, but I can tell you one thing. If I was a Liberal and Carney was running for leadership, he would be the guy that would have my vote. Mind you, I like Trudeau. I just think at this point in his career he's a bit over-rated. Edited June 16, 2012 by cybercoma Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punked Posted June 16, 2012 Report Share Posted June 16, 2012 I don't know about that, but I can tell you one thing. If I was a Liberal and Carney was running for leadership, he would be the guy that would have my vote. Mind you, I like Trudeau. I just think at this point in his career he's a bit over-rated. Why? Why would you vote for Carney? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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