NDP Leadership

[Guest Derek L]

Dewar's the one who Conservatives have said they're most concerned about.

With my objective hat on, yes I feel Dewar would be the most “troublesome” for my Tories……..But if taking into account the NDP’s faithful, it doesn’t appear he has a lot of grassroots support, so he becomes a void option……..As a viable candidate, Muclair to me anyways, appears the most “winnable”…….I would almost peg him as a Tony Blair (New) Labour member……..Or a Federal Liberal.

[Newfoundlander]

With my objective hat on, yes I feel Dewar would be the most “troublesome” for my Tories……..But if taking into account the NDP’s faithful, it doesn’t appear he has a lot of grassroots support, so he becomes a void option……..As a viable candidate, Muclair to me anyways, appears the most “winnable”…….I would almost peg him as a Tony Blair (New) Labour member……..Or a Federal Liberal.

I'm not sure about that.

[Guest Derek L]

I'm not sure about that.

That he’s “winnable” or a federal Liberal?

[Newfoundlander]

That he’s “winnable” or a federal Liberal?

That Dewar doesn't have a lot of grassroots support.

Edited March 5, 2012 by Newfoundlander

[Guest Derek L]

That Dewar doesn't have a lot of grassroots support.

Really? I honestly haven’t been following too closely, how’s he polling?

[j44]

He's a clever and affable fellow, but he'll be eaten alive in the debates as the leader of the party.

I'm starting to think that he isn't as good of a debater as I thought at the beginning. He did come off well in the first debates I watched but the last one I saw (in Winnipeg, I didnt watch this past one in Montreal) he didnt really hold his own or hit back well when he was attacked. I'm starting to think that now that it is getting serious and not the friendly type debates they had at the start he is showing his real abilities. Just a theory though. Like I said I didnt watch this past debate.

The Liberals I think are destined to take one more crack at an election before merger talks become serious again. They will want to be in the driver's seat (aka official opposition) if a merger is to occur. The NDP's hold on official opposition is shall we say questionable and the Liberals are not naive to that. They know they could easily form official opposition next time.

I'm not quite sure a merger is even remotely likely even if the Liberals don't make it back to official opposition next election. I know that would indicate they are still in trouble but just because they drop to 3rd party status two elections in a row they dissolve the party? I don't think I buy that. And the problem with any merger is that no party will want to negotiate from a position of weakness. I would think that for a merger to be really taken seriously both parties would need something approaching equal status. Whether that means a roughly equal number of MPs or some other way to quantify their standing....

The only one I can see holding his or her own is Tom Mulcair and maybe Peggy Nash, but she's not fiscally minded enough imo.

That tells me a lot about her. She was their finance critic and possibly her biggest issue in the debates is explaining her fiscal policies.

I don't think Peggy Nash holds her own even in the NDP leadership debates.

And from what I watched of her in interviews even before the leadership race she didnt come across as capable in my book. I just cant take to her.

So for anyone who did watch the debate today, what were your thoughts? It seems The candidates have decided who the front-runner is, Old Tommy Boy. The Globe made it seem as if Topp was just sitting their twiddling his thumbs, apparently he only got one question in the first round.

Yeah I would love to hear from some people who did watch it. How did Mulcair hold up to the attacks? Did anyone take it really easy on him (maybe a sign of a pact coming up)? Who got the most attention other than Mulcair?

Dewar's the one who Conservatives have said they're most concerned about.

If they came out and said this my reaction would be that they could be thinking the opposite.

[Newfoundlander]

Really? I honestly haven’t been following too closely, how’s he polling?

His own poll had him in second place, and first on the second ballot. (take that for what it's worth) There have been other polls howling him in third behind Nash and Mulcair.

There's also these article about his campaign.

http://www.hilltimes.com/news/politics/2011/10/18/ndp-leadership-hopeful-dewars-social-media-campaign-compared-to-obamas-2008-bid/28516

http://www.hilltimes.com/news/politics/2012/01/03/dewar-building-formidable-campaign-machine-across-country/29136

[Guest Derek L]

If they came out and said this my reaction would be that they could be thinking the opposite.

Why’s that? He comes across calm and articulate……And as far as I know, doesn’t carry any negative political baggage.

[Guest Derek L]

His own poll had him in second place, and first on the second ballot. (take that for what it's worth) There have been other polls howling him in third behind Nash and Mulcair.

There's also these article about his campaign.

http://www.hilltimes.com/news/politics/2011/10/18/ndp-leadership-hopeful-dewars-social-media-campaign-compared-to-obamas-2008-bid/28516

http://www.hilltimes.com/news/politics/2012/01/03/dewar-building-formidable-campaign-machine-across-country/29136

When's the first vote?

[Newfoundlander]

If they came out and said this my reaction would be that they could be thinking the opposite.

They haven't publicly commented on it but there have been articles, and what not, mentioning that "insiders" say they are most worried about Dewar. Mainly due to his clean record, it's not hard to attack Nash, Mulcair or Topp but Dewar becomes a problem. John Baird has publicly praised him.

Edited March 5, 2012 by Newfoundlander

[j44]

Why’s that? He comes across calm and articulate……And as far as I know, doesn’t carry any negative political baggage.

They haven't publicly commented on it but there have been articles, and what not, mentioning that "insiders" say they are most worried about Dewar. Mainly due to his clean record, it's not hard to attack Nash, Mulcair or Topp but Dewar becomes a problem. John Baird has publicly praised him.

I just think it would be something they would do to muddy the waters. IMO he comes across well sometimes but other times he doesnt overly impress me. They could be concerned that he would get the NDP base worked up so it could be legit. I didnt read those Hill articles but I know when he was going across the country he was staying at the homes of local supporters instead of hotels. I know when he was here he was going around the city working out of a local MLAs car. He does appeal to a certain segment of NDp supporters for sure. When I saw him he was wearing a suit jacket but had on a pair of cords and Doc Martens. And I did hear that he has a lot of Layton's old staff working for him.

I do however think that insiders will 'leak' things to the media to bend the narrative in the direction they want. You no doubt could be right though.

Do you have any links regarding the insiders and Baird stuff?

[Newfoundlander]

I just think it would be something they would do to muddy the waters. IMO he comes across well sometimes but other times he doesnt overly impress me. They could be concerned that he would get the NDP base worked up so it could be legit. I didnt read those Hill articles but I know when he was going across the country he was staying at the homes of local supporters instead of hotels. I know when he was here he was going around the city working out of a local MLAs car. He does appeal to a certain segment of NDp supporters for sure. When I saw him he was wearing a suit jacket but had on a pair of cords and Doc Martens. And I did hear that he has a lot of Layton's old staff working for him.

I do however think that insiders will 'leak' things to the media to bend the narrative in the direction they want. You no doubt could be right though.

Do you have any links regarding the insiders and Baird stuff?

This was before he entered the race and he made similar comments afterwards.

http://www.globalnews.ca/Pages/Story.aspx?id=6442493519

I'll look to see if I can't find he other comments.

[capricorn]

They haven't publicly commented on it but there have been articles, and what not, mentioning that "insiders" say they are most worried about Dewar.

Dewar's main setback is his lack of fluency in French. Of course, that could change in time. What I find is that he comes across as uninspiring and dull. He does not retain my attention. And seeing that the NDP must maintain its hold on Quebec seats and that Quebecers like flamboyant politicians he doesn't strike me as the right match. But Mulcair does.

[Newfoundlander]

Dewar's main setback is his lack of fluency in French. Of course, that could change in time. What I find is that he comes across as uninspiring and dull. He does not retain my attention. And seeing that the NDP must maintain its hold on Quebec seats and that Quebecers like flamboyant politicians he doesn't strike me as the right match. But Mulcair does.

I haven't found Dewar to be as strong as I had thought he was before the campaign. I don't find Mulcair that great, I don't think he's anything special.

[Guest Derek L]

Dewar's main setback is his lack of fluency in French. Of course, that could change in time. What I find is that he comes across as uninspiring and dull. He does not retain my attention. And seeing that the NDP must maintain its hold on Quebec seats and that Quebecers like flamboyant politicians he doesn't strike me as the right match. But Mulcair does.

Uninspiring and dull shouldn’t be discounted, as I’m sure many would consider PM Harper as such……….I didn’t know about the lack of French language skills though……..That would clearly be a political millstone around his neck, especially for a party that draws heavily on Quebec.

[j44]

This was before he entered the race and he made similar comments afterwards.

http://www.globalnews.ca/Pages/Story.aspx?id=6442493519

I'll look to see if I can't find he other comments.

Thanks.

[capricorn]

I didn’t know about the lack of French language skills though……..That would clearly be a political millstone around his neck, especially for a party that draws heavily on Quebec.

There was a strong feeling among people following the event that Ottawa MP Paul Dewar was the weakest performer in French. Mr. Dewar is working every day with a tutor, but he had problems expressing his thoughts, especially when he could not rely on his notes. Mr. Dewar frequently used short sentences, took a number of pauses and struggled to improvise when he was questioned by rival candidates.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ndp-leadership-hopefuls-test-french-skills-in-quebec-debate/article2335615/?utm_medium=Feeds%3A%20RSS%2FAtom&utm_source=Home&utm_content=2335615

The event being the French debate on Saturday.

[cybercoma]

Uninspiring and dull shouldn’t be discounted, as I’m sure many would consider PM Harper as such……….I didn’t know about the lack of French language skills though……..That would clearly be a political millstone around his neck, especially for a party that draws heavily on Quebec.

He has looked out of his element on a couple of occassions when Topp and Mulcair had him cornered in debate. He certainly doesn't inspire confidence, which must be amplified amongst francophones since he's not fluent. I'm sure Dewar is an excellent politician, just like Cullen. However, they're not strong enough yet to step directly into the role of Leader of the Opposition. The NDP needs to keep sight of the fact that the winner of this will immediately become Leader of the Opposition, not just another party leader that can grow into the role. This is what turned me against Topp. He doesn't have the experience in QP. He's out of his element too and it has shown in the debates. Mulcair is the only real choice the NDP has. If they pick any of these other contenders, they're taking a huge gamble.

[j44]

He has looked out of his element on a couple of occassions when Topp and Mulcair had him cornered in debate. He certainly doesn't inspire confidence, which must be amplified amongst francophones since he's not fluent. I'm sure Dewar is an excellent politician, just like Cullen. However, they're not strong enough yet to step directly into the role of Leader of the Opposition. The NDP needs to keep sight of the fact that the winner of this will immediately become Leader of the Opposition, not just another party leader that can grow into the role. This is what turned me against Topp. He doesn't have the experience in QP. He's out of his element too and it has shown in the debates. Mulcair is the only real choice the NDP has. If they pick any of these other contenders, they're taking a huge gamble.

I more or less agree. It would be preferable for the new leader to hit the ground running with as little of a learning curve as possible. This is even more important considering that Turmel hasn't been great (to say the least) and Rae is coming up the back.

One could maybe argue that a new leader with no experience at that level could MAYBE afford taking some time to learn the ropes but not much and I think any new leader will have some stumbles out of the block regardless. Of course someone other than Mulcair could win and prove a lot of people wrong but I don't think that is a safe bet.

I would like some opinions on what people think Topp will do if he loses this race. Does he still run for MP spot down the road or go back to the backrooms?

And does anyone have any insight into any possible backroom deal at the convention? anyone willing to speculate?

[Guest Derek L]

He has looked out of his element on a couple of occassions when Topp and Mulcair had him cornered in debate. He certainly doesn't inspire confidence, which must be amplified amongst francophones since he's not fluent. I'm sure Dewar is an excellent politician, just like Cullen. However, they're not strong enough yet to step directly into the role of Leader of the Opposition. The NDP needs to keep sight of the fact that the winner of this will immediately become Leader of the Opposition, not just another party leader that can grow into the role. This is what turned me against Topp. He doesn't have the experience in QP. He's out of his element too and it has shown in the debates. Mulcair is the only real choice the NDP has. If they pick any of these other contenders, they're taking a huge gamble.

Perhaps he’d make a decent potential shadow/cabinet minister? He does seem the sort of personality that the NDP should, though perhaps not a leadership material, promote.

[PIK]

Of course it is. PIK is a conservative.

Yes I am and damn proud, but they have a web site attacking muclair and look at the attacks that went on over the lady that crossed the floor, maybe they know more about the robo calls, then we been let on?.Hmmmm.

[cybercoma]

opinions on what people think Topp will do if he loses this race. Does he still run for MP spot down the road or go back to the backrooms?

I hope he does. He has the potential to be a great politician, but he needs MP experience before running for party leadership.

[cybercoma]

Perhaps he’d make a decent potential shadow/cabinet minister? He does seem the sort of personality that the NDP should, though perhaps not a leadership material, promote.

Oh absolutely.

I would like to see Singh get himself a seat as well because he's an excellent politician and has the kind of ideas the NDP needs.

[UofGPolitico]

I hope he does. He has the potential to be a great politician, but he needs MP experience before running for party leadership.

I agree. If he truly is interested in front-room politics, then he should run in 2015 to become an MP. He could always try leadership again if whoever the NDP choose fails miserably in 2015. My guess is though he will prove his opportunism and descend back into hiding and in the backrooms.

[cybercoma]

I agree. If he truly is interested in front-room politics, then he should run in 2015 to become an MP. He could always try leadership again if whoever the NDP choose fails miserably in 2015. My guess is though he will prove his opportunism and descend back into hiding and in the backrooms.

Even if the person that becomes leader fails miserably in 2015, I don't believe the NDP will get rid of them so quickly. Let's be honest. The circumstances surrounding this whole thing are rather extraordinary. This is uncharted territory. Whoever wins can't just be ok. They need to be the best.