Why Harper is so vulnerable

[olp1fan]

I honestly think that the CPC will be in power for some time.

The CPC will need to have support erode in the west. The chance of that happening any time soon? Anyone want to wager?

easy, next few years when Canadian Wheat Farmers in the Praries become poor or lose their business because of Americans paying them little

the Libs or NDP will promise to bring back the CWB, and then the farmers and their families won't vote for the cons in the next election

[MiddleClassCentrist]

I really question though, how economically viable a sovereign Quebec would be, surrounded by two Anglophone countries…

That is the irony of the separatist movement. If they separate, they will destroy their culture because they would need to cater to anglophones to survive, instead of the way we cater to them now.

[Guest Derek L]

I honestly think that the CPC will be in power for some time.

The CPC will need to have support erode in the west. The chance of that happening any time soon? Anyone want to wager?

As I’ve alluded to in other threads, the CPC’s ebb and flow will depend on several things…….A steady, conservative (pun intended) political game plan i.e. No major scandals and no major controversial legislation later on during their current mandate………No uncontrolled outside events that could tarnish them in the eyes of the Canadian electorate (Some Luck)……….And the performance of the Liberal party in rebuilding and reinventing itself(Only time will tell)

[Guest Derek L]

That is the irony of the separatist movement. If they separate, they will destroy their culture because they would need to cater to anglophones to survive, instead of the way we cater to them now.

Exactly, and as a nation, Quebec’s livelihood will depend on trade with English speaking nations………I wonder if anything really would change for Canada……would transfer payments just become foreign aid?

[olp1fan]

A couple of years under Harpers stupid on crime law with regards to jailing people caught with marijuanna within a block near school or growing more than 6 or more pot plants ..and harpers soft on drunk driving and pedophilia should pretty much seal his fate in the next election ..not to mention his white collar crime laws that do not count for politicians

[Guest Derek L]

A couple of years under Harpers stupid on crime law with regards to jailing people caught with marijuanna within a block near school or growing more than 6 or more pot plants ..and harpers soft on drunk driving and pedophilia should pretty much seal his fate in the next election ..not to mention his white collar crime laws that do not count for politicians

Have you read the crime bill or are you just regurgitating the opinions of others?

[MiddleClassCentrist]

easy, next few years when Canadian Wheat Farmers in the Praries become poor or lose their business because of Americans paying them little

the Libs or NDP will promise to bring back the CWB, and then the farmers and their families won't vote for the cons in the next election

It's not as simple as that though. It might erode a little bit of support but, I wouldn't wager on swathes of people switching.

I remember reading the story about an NDP candidate campaigning in Alberta. She went to talk to people on social assistance. The people were voting conservative because they believed in lower taxes. The candidate tried to inform the people that they actually don't pay any taxes when all is said and done, they ignored her. "I've voted conservative my entire life and I will continue to do so."

When the people who would benefit most from a progressive government refuse to vote in their interest... how could a progressive party make any headground? They aren't going make huge gains targetting wealthy business people who would rather keep their personal earnings higher than invest taxes in social programs.

Edited November 27, 2011 by MiddleClassCentrist

[fellowtraveller]

Yeah well I remember those ten years. They did a pretty good job because that's why we are in such a good position now.

Thanks for that utter lack of historic perspective.

The main reason we did not impale ourselves on the greedout embodied by the subprime mortgage collapse was because of our Bank Act, which you will be astounded to learn was was not enacted by Chretien. It has been around since about 1880.

[Guest Derek L]

It's not as simple as that though. It might erode a little bit of support but, I wouldn't wager on swathes of people switching.

I remember reading the story about an NDP candidate campaigning in Alberta. She went to talk to people on social assistance. The people were voting conservative because they believed in lower taxes. The candidate tried to inform the people that they actually don't pay any taxes when all is said and done, they ignored her. "I've voted conservative my entire life and I will continue to do so."

When the people who would benefit most from a progressive government refuse to vote in their interest... how could a progressive party make any headground? They aren't going make huge gains targetting wealthy business people who want to keep their personal earnings higher than invest taxes in social programs.

Exactly, the NDP are setting themselves up for failure trying to target Tory supporters (If that’s indeed their strategy)…….The next election will be fought over the remnants of the Liberal parties base, and for the Liberals, to stop the bleeding and obtain the mantel of the official opposition from the NDP………..

[fellowtraveller]

Oh, and I love how the OP as per usual starts with a massive strawman- that Harper is 'so vulnerable'- then creates a flight of fancy off that fiction.

If Harper was so vulnerable how id he a) just win a majority govt without support from Quebec? and survive 5 years as a minority?

Really, this is just the usual separatiste gobblydegook and sour grapes over the slow and painful death of soveirngty.

The only way Harper will be vulnerable over the next several years is if the NDP does the unthinkable and elects a moderate leader with the will AND means to move the NDP to the center. Even then, his position is very solid.

Quebec will have a tough tough choice next time because they are going to be sorely disappointed by the ineffectiveness of their NDP caucus real soon. o they want a place at the big table or not, and doubly so in the abscence of a separation option.

Hard, hard times ahead for the OP and his friends.

[Evening Star]

The only way Harper will be vulnerable over the next several years is if the NDP does the unthinkable and elects a moderate leader with the will AND means to move the NDP to the center. Even then, his position is very solid.

Why is this unthinkable? Mulcair and even Dewar are quite moderate.

[Wild Bill]

Why is this unthinkable? Mulcair and even Dewar are quite moderate.

Star, you have to be a long time conservative yourself to understand. Like people of any persuasion, most are not political analysts. They don't deeply understand the parties and tend to have rather shallow conceptions and misconceptions.

To put it simply, most folks that consistently vote Tory regard the NDP as muddleheads at best and outright communists at worst! That is why the Tory vote always has a solid base.

NDP supporters tend to get very frustrated with this and call such voters all sorts of names, regarding them as simple-minded sheep at best and reptilian kitten-eaters who rob babies and laugh to condemn them to a life of poverty and welfare at the very worst.

It doesn't matter. People are what they are and they vote as they will. The NDP will never win over some Tory votes by getting them to change their values. It will only happen if they see some of their values in the NDP!

Which isn't likely any time soon, now that Jack has died. Don't hold your breath.

[olp1fan]

disgruntled cpc voters may not switch sides but they might refuse to vote for them..which is what happened to a lot of long time liberal voters

Harper has 3 years to piss off the young voter base too... they mostly vote left not right

Edited November 27, 2011 by olp1fan

[WWWTT]

To put it simply, most folks that consistently vote Tory regard the NDP as muddleheads at best and outright communists at worst! That is why the Tory vote always has a solid base.

Now the real question here is how big is this crowd of conservative voters.The ones that will vote conservative because thats all they know.

Every other vote the conservatives got is up for grab.

WWWTT

[Argus]

How much do you want to bet that Quebec is going to leave Canada before Harpers next term is over?

or if Harper is re elected

Harper seems to love divisive politics

What a load of crap.

You know, what I said about idiot Republicans earlier I could say just as well to idiot liberals or idiot Quebec 'soft separatists'.

To August and his ilk, compromise means Quebec gets everything it wants, and the rest of the country just shuts up and pays the bill without complaint. Stuff the rest of Canada might support, well that's just not of any value. Stupid backward Anglos. What do they know anyway?

This is perfectly illustrated by how Harper, in the previous election, basically gave Quebec everything they'd ever asked for, including extra billions in transfer payments, recognition, and all sorts of stuff, and then saw Quebec get outraged and vote against him because of a reshuffling of a couple of minor arts grants few had ever heard of, and a law which allowed the courts the option of getting tougher on young murderers. Quebec was outraged that the federal government would do anything that wasn't central to, and with Quebec's wholehearted approval. It didn't matter about all the other stuff Harper had done for them. After all, as far as people like August are concerned, doing well by Quebec is the government's one and only real duty.

Most of the stuff August is whingeing about are things wanted by Canadians outside Quebec, but not particularly by Quebecers. Therefore (of course) they should not be done. August (of course) is outraged that Harper has done things to appeal to other parts of Canada rather than to Quebec. Harper should have ignored the feelings, wishes, desires and demands of the rest of their supporters and simply focused on pleasing Quebec. That's August's idea of compromise. August and the Tea Party thus have a lot in common.

Well, guess what? It's a big country. And sometimes policies and programs are put in place which please you, and sometimes they please someone else. That's what democracy is all about. The government weighs what you want and what someone else wants and sometimes makes a decision which you disapprove of. Deal with it. And I'm heartily tired of August's claim of being a conservative. His idea of conservative seems to mean that the government should spend as little money as possible - outside Quebec. You'll notice no complaint about the billions extra given to Quebec, nope. No way. But money spent 'to please english politicians' well, how outrageous!

[Argus]

Seems like you're fine with the Marijuana sentences being harsher than the pedophile sentences

Since when does one sentence have anything to do with another? Do you know, for example, that the sentences for downloading a child porn video off the internet is worse than actually going out, grabbing a child, and molesting it? Yep. Make sense? Nope. So what?

When and if ordinary potheads start getting sent to prison you can start bitching. Until that happens I'm going to go with my suspicion the new laws are aimed at grow ops, and save my sympathy for someone else.

There's a lot more to the omnibus crime bill but the crackdown on grow-ups, but you'd hardly know it around here.

[Argus]

How else can you explain why Marijuana has tougher sentences than pedophiles?

what is the ideology in that?

How about that despite the hysterical press coverage there just ain't many people molesting children out there these days? And usually, the molesting consists of touching them on the ass or something. Its not an epidemic.

Plus pedophiles aren't gunning each other down in Vancouver's streets the way drug dealers are.

[Argus]

Now the real question here is how big is this crowd of conservative voters.The ones that will vote conservative because thats all they know.

I vote Conservative because the others are idiots. I doubt I'm alone in that.

[dre]

I vote Conservative because the others are idiots. I doubt I'm alone in that.

I dont think you are either. Its sortof like trying to pick a babysitter for your kids but the only people available are convicted pedophiles. You pick the one thats the least dangerous or you just stay home with the kids and dont go out.

In my case I just stopped going out (I dont vote federally anymore), instead of holding my nose and voting for someone terrible because the other options are worse.

Youre right though... thats how most people vote.

Edited November 28, 2011 by dre

[olp1fan]

I vote Conservative because the others are idiots. I doubt I'm alone in that.

thats odd cause i dont vote conservative cause i believe they are all idiots

[MiddleClassCentrist]

I vote Conservative because the others are idiots. I doubt I'm alone in that.

Conservatives have the most [loyal/closed minded] (insert for bias you want) group of supporters.

Now, the question is would you ever consider supporting another party?

I know I don't like the current brand of conservatives and because of that, conservatives on this board label me crazy left wing nut but, a good fiscal conservative eader with status quo/non-regressive in social policies could grab me.

So I'd never rule Conservatives out in the future.

[dre]

Conservatives have the most [loyal/closed minded] (insert for bias you want) group of supporters.

Now, the question is would you ever consider supporting another party?

I know I don't like the current brand of conservatives and because of that, conservatives on this board label me crazy left wing nut but, a good fiscal conservative eader with status quo/non-regressive in social policies could grab me.

So I'd never rule Conservatives out in the future.

Fiscal conservatism is extinct at least in terms of political representation. Fiscal conservatives want to slash military and social spending, and make government less intrusive in our lives. So not only is traditional fiscal conservatism unpopular with liberals, its unpopular with todays breed of "big government, borrow and spend, police the world, and law & order" conservatives as well.

Theres no real constituency for fiscal conservatives in modern society.

[Shwa]

Fiscal conservatism is extinct at least in terms of political representation. Fiscal conservatives want to slash military and social spending, and make government less intrusive in our lives.

Sounds almost... liberal.

[dre]

Sounds almost... liberal.

It doesnt sound like ANYONE really. Westerners like to spend money and governments are every bit as addicted as consumers. Thats why that particular 'sub ideology' died out.

[Guest Derek L]

Conservatives have the most [loyal/closed minded] (insert for bias you want) group of supporters.

Now, the question is would you ever consider supporting another party?

I know I don't like the current brand of conservatives and because of that, conservatives on this board label me crazy left wing nut but, a good fiscal conservative eader with status quo/non-regressive in social policies could grab me.

So I'd never rule Conservatives out in the future.

I’d consider voting for a liberal (Small l) party with a Louis St Laurent like leader…………Perhaps a Scott Brison....