Shipbuilding contracts

[Smallc]

The Liberals have never, btw, promised faster delivery. They have promised that all promised ships will be built and that extra money will be allocated to ensure that. As the OOSV is to start in 2017, this is a test of that.

[Smallc]

More partisan speculation. The Conservatives failed the navy. Don't blame it on Trudeau.

[Derek 2.0]

I see a lot of speculation coloured by partisanship. Until I see actual evidence I'll have to wait and see. The Conservatives had planned to have the AORs started and the CSC contract signed within this mandate. The (insufficient) money is there for those things.

Where is the money? You've been asked countless times to support this claim, a claim that is easily countered by the Liberal's own fiscal plan.........This "leak" is government speak for punting those vessels not already under contract into the next mandate (if ever).........

[Smallc]

Where is the money? You've been asked countless times to support this claim, a claim that is easily countered by the Liberal's own fiscal plan.........This "leak" is government speak for punting those vessels not already under contract into the next mandate (if ever).........

The money that was allocated is already in the budget. I've already shown it to you in the defence acquisition guide. I'm not going to do it again. The problem here is that it's been too lon for those original budgets to cover the costs.

There is a stated commitment by the Liberals to the CCG and RCN through full support of the NSPS. Unless you can show me something different with real proof, you're twisting and fabricating.

Par for the course.

[Derek 2.0]

More partisan speculation. The Conservatives failed the navy. Don't blame it on Trudeau.

The Conservative's have signed production contracts, which have already started on both coasts, in addition to the interim AOR lease........to date the new Liberal Government has punted the interim AOR lease, and in this recent "leak" is how the Liberal attempt to get out in front of a bad news story........Since this Government doesn't have new money budgeted in its fiscal plan, coupled with said leak suggesting they will have to add additional money (that isn't budgeted) or cancel programs, the writing is on the wall.

[Derek 2.0]

The money that was allocated is already in the budget. I've already shown it to you in the defence acquisition guide. I'm not going to do it again. The problem here is that it's been too lon for those original budgets to cover the costs.

No, you didn't........you provided an out of date guide, not a budget, since the Tories didn't release any spending plans past next year.

There is a stated commitment by the Liberals to the CCG and RCN through full support of the NSPS. Unless you can show me something different with real proof, you're twisting and fabricating.

Par for the course.

The Liberals also stated 25000 Syrian refugees by the end of this year.............how'd that work out?

[Smallc]

Actually if you look a the actual written promises, there was no date. That was all verbal. The actual written promise from the platform and mandate letter has been kept.

[Smallc]

there is procurement money in each year's budget. I don't know how else to explain that to you. Purchases are paid for over years out of that as product is delivered and milestones are reached.

[Derek 2.0]

there is procurement money in each year's budget. I don't know how else to explain that to you. Purchases are paid for over years out of that as product is delivered and milestones are reached.

There is no new procurement money for frigates or fighters in said budget, nor does the Liberal's own fiscal plan or election platform indicate said money will be forthcoming within this mandate.

[Smallc]

There is no new procurement money for frigates or fighters in said budget, nor does the Liberal's own fiscal plan or election platform indicate said money will be forthcoming within this mandate.

They haven't promised frigates in this mandate. According to the only two documents available - Canada First Defence Strategy and Defence Provuremenr Guide 2014 - (the ones not in your mind) the fighter money begins to flow between 2017 and 2018 for contract signing and initial deliveries with final deliveries 2025 - 2026. That means it would happen within this mandate and would fall in line with Liberal plans.

[Derek 2.0]

They haven't promised frigates in this mandate. According to the only two documents available - Canada First Defence Strategy and Defence Provuremenr Guide 2014 - (the ones not in your mind) the fighter money begins to flow between 2017 and 2018 for contract signing and initial deliveries with final deliveries 2025 - 2026. That means it would happen within this mandate and would fall in line with Liberal plans.

Again you are quoting a null and void document, as the previous Government had no intention of purchasing the F-35 until it reached full rate production, in the 2020+ timeline......hence why they budgeted a Hornet life extension program to keep them in service until ~2025. Under the Conservatives, there would have been no F-35s bought, hence no money "flowing" in 2017-2018, as they had no intention of purchasing the F-35 outside of full rate production.

As to ships, outside the vessels already in production or paid for, the only contracts to be signed inside this mandate, by the Tories, would have been the for the interim AOR (in 2015) and the new production AORs in the 2016-2017 fiscal year.......which is a moot point since they are no longer Government and the Liberals will not table a Tory budget, as they have clearly different spending plans (as they outlined in their public fiscal plan).

Hence, despite your baseless claims otherwise, there will be no new ships or fighter purchases, inside this mandate, unless the new Liberal Government adds additional money to their fiscal plan.

I will be surprised if they select and sign a contract for FWSAR........likewise, if they don't cut any current capabilities.

[Smallc]

Again you are quoting a null and void document, as the previous Government had no intention of purchasing the F-35 until it reached full rate production, in the 2020+ timeline......hence why they budgeted a Hornet life extension program to keep them in service until ~2025. Under the Conservatives, there would have been no F-35s bought, hence no money "flowing" in 2017-2018, as they had no intention of purchasing the F-35 outside of full rate production.

Then you're going to have to provide proof. Contract signing was planned for 2018 in the newest plan available, meaning that money would start to flow in that timeframe. Whether or not acquisitions would occur before 2020 is irrelevant as the money would have to start flowing immediately as there would be certain milestones to be acted on.

As to ships, outside the vessels already in production or paid for, the only contracts to be signed inside this mandate, by the Tories, would have been the for the interim AOR (in 2015) and the new production AORs in the 2016-2017 fiscal year.......which is a moot point since they are no longer Government and the Liberals will not table a Tory budget, as they have clearly different spending plans (as they outlined in their public fiscal plan).

Within this mandate contracts would have to be signed for the OOSV (next year) and Queenston class (2016 - 2017). Designer and combat integrator is set to be selected for the Canadian Surface Combatant. Again, if this has changed (in direct contradiction to Liberal promises) you're going to have to provide proof.

Hence, despite your baseless claims otherwise, there will be no new ships or fighter purchases, inside this mandate, unless the new Liberal Government adds additional money to their fiscal plan.

The OOSV and Queenston contracts have not been signed. The Liberals have strongly endorsed the naval and coast guard procurements. There are also pre construction milestones for the CSC. You're the one with the baseless claims.

I will be surprised if they select and sign a contract for FWSAR........likewise, if they don't cut any current capabilities.

Since they have A ) promised a white paper (by another name) and B ) are left with an underfunded plan from the Conservatives, there will be no alternative. FWSAR is unlikely to be a capability they kill. If you have evidence that they will, provide it.

[Derek 2.0]

Then you're going to have to provide proof. Contract signing was planned for 2018 in the newest plan available, meaning that money would start to flow in that timeframe. Whether or not acquisitions would occur before 2020 is irrelevant as the money would have to start flowing immediately as there would be certain milestones to be acted on.

No it wasn't, if it were, the then Government would not have sought an additional Hornet life extension in that period, starting after the USN/USMC program was completed in 2017-2018.

Your proof is in countless cites in the previous F-35 thread.

Within this mandate contracts would have to be signed for the OOSV (next year) and Queenston class (2016 - 2017). Designer and combat integrator is set to be selected for the Canadian Surface Combatant. Again, if this has changed (in direct contradiction to Liberal promises) you're going to have to provide proof.

Can you demonstrate, from within the Liberal's own fiscal plan, where said money is to come from?

When is the "designer and combat intergrator" set to be selected?

As to proof, of a direct contradiction, your own link above, which quotes a Government source stating some programs are going to require far more money (that the Liberal don't have budgeted) or will be canceled.

The OOSV and Queenston contracts have not been signed. The Liberals have strongly endorsed the naval and coast guard procurements. There are also pre construction milestones for the CSC. You're the one with the baseless claims.

I never stated either was signed, and under this Government, I doubt they will be inside this mandate...........previous milestones mean nothing to a different Government......or a party in an election.......how many Syrians are to be brought in by the end of the year now?

Since they have A ) promised a white paper (by another name) and B ) are left with an underfunded plan from the Conservatives, there will be no alternative. FWSAR is unlikely to be a capability they kill. If you have evidence that they will, provide it.

Evidence

[Smallc]

No it wasn't, if it were, the then Government would not have sought an additional Hornet life extension in that period, starting after the USN/USMC program was completed in 2017-2018.

The fighters won't be delivered in a year, meaning we need the F-18 to last until about 2025.

Can you demonstrate, from within the Liberal's own fiscal plan, where said money is to come from?

Can you demonstrate where it says that the procurement plans are different than those laid out by the government - last year - ?

When is the "designer and combat intergrator" set to be selected?

According to the prime contractor, by 2017.

As to proof, of a direct contradiction, your own link above, which quotes a Government source stating some programs are going to require far more money (that the Liberal don't have budgeted) or will be canceled.

Which is why I fully expect more money to come, redirected from other sources. The Liberals delivered a fiscal outline that says nothin of CCG funding. It's also not a budget. You're stating things in direct contradiction to written government priorities. You'll need proof.

I never stated either was signed, and under this Government, I doubt they will be inside this mandate...........previous milestones mean nothing to a different Government......or a party in an election.......how many Syrians are to be brought in by the end of the year now?

Your doubt means even less.

Evidence

I've read the plan several times from end to end. Did you look at the part about the navy and CCG? Good read.

Conversation over until proof is furnished.

[Smallc]

The reality is that the Liberals inherited a broken program from the Conservatives. They have to fix it.

[Derek 2.0]

The fighters won't be delivered in a year, meaning we need the F-18 to last until about 2025.

Huh? I never suggested that they would........if a contract was signed in the 2020-2021 fiscal year, that would align with an out of service date for the Hornet in 2025.......

Can you demonstrate where it says that the procurement plans are different than those laid out by the government - last year - ?

I can and did, numerous times with Waldo in the previous F-35 thread. Canada, never once, intended to purchase the F-35 outside of full-rate production.........full rate production doesn't begin until 2020, hence we wouldn't have purchased aircraft prior.

According to the prime contractor, by 2017.

Under the timeline set by the previous Government, none the less, assuming the Trudeau Liberals maintained the timelines of the previous Government, 2017 doesn't equate to a final contract, as one can't contract for something that has yet to be designed........hence, once the contractors were selected, for the Government to sign a contract for new frigates inside this mandate, the contractor would be required to submit a final design to the Government inside of two years..............something that all of said designers biding on this program, haven't done with any of their previous programs........so, like I've been saying, this, combined with the fact the new GoC doesn't have money budgeted, confirms my point that no new frigates will be bought inside this mandate.

Which is why I fully expect more money to come, redirected from other sources. The Liberals delivered a fiscal outline that says nothin of CCG funding. It's also not a budget. You're stating things in direct contradiction to written government priorities. You'll need proof.

I provided proof ........proof that includes such small budget items as $60 million to do away with National park fees or $28 million over four years to reopen VAC offices............yet no money, in the 10s of billions, for new ships of fighters.

Your doubt means even less.

Perhaps to you, but inside several weeks, this new Government has already reversed several promises they made during the election............now I could be wrong, and the Trudeau Liberals decide to add upward of $40 billion dollars of new spending inside this mandate for new ships and frigates.........I stand to be corrected.

I've read the plan several times from end to end. Did you look at the part about the navy and CCG? Good read.

Conversation over until proof is furnished.

Well no, you didn't, as said plan doesn't include new money for the navy or CCG..........unless you're suggesting the Liberals have ~$40+ billion hidden for new military purchases inside this mandate

[Smallc]

The Conservatives were going to deliver according to Derek.

The Liberals, using the same budget numbers, can't (again, according to Derek). Does that make sense?

The Liberals are going to take away work from a region of Canada that they swept and another where they had their best showing in 60 years (again according to Derek). Does that make sense?

To pinpoint that further, the Liberals are going to take work from 2 shipyards in Liberal ridings (under)funded by the Conservatives and included in forward budgets. Does that makes sense?

Apparently, these numbers only work when Conservatives are in power.

Given the attitude of Couillard after the First Minister's meeting on Monday in regards to the media question about the interim support ship, even that seems to be a (delayed) go. It is across the river from a Liberal riding, after all.

There is no sign of the Liberals abandoning their commitment to shipbuilding. It fits with their focus on jobs, the middle class, the economy, infrastructure, the navy, the CCG, and continued military funding.

[Derek 2.0]

The Conservatives were going to deliver according to Derek.

Not in the time frame you suggest the Liberals will, since the Liberals haven't funded said new programs.

The Liberals, using the same budget numbers, can't (again, according to Derek). Does that make sense?

The Liberals aren't using the same budget numbers as the Conservatives.

The Liberals are going to take away work from a region of Canada that they swept and another where they had their best showing in 60 years (again according to Derek). Does that make sense?

I never said that, nor do I think the Liberals would cancel programs, like the AOPS, that have already been funded by the previous Government.

To pinpoint that further, the Liberals are going to take work from 2 shipyards in Liberal ridings (under)funded by the Conservatives and included in forward budgets. Does that makes sense?

Who said that? I've no doubt they will continue with the contracts already paid for by the previous Government.

Apparently, these numbers only work when Conservatives are in power.

Apples and oranges, as the Liberals aren't tabling a like budget as the previous Government had projected.

Given the attitude of Couillard after the First Minister's meeting on Monday in regards to the media question about the interim support ship, even that seems to be a (delayed) go. It is across the river from a Liberal riding, after all.

If true, good.........but didn't you just suggest above the Liberals wouldn't take work away from Liberal riding(s) on the East Coast?

There is no sign of the Liberals abandoning their commitment to shipbuilding. It fits with their focus on jobs, the middle class, the economy, infrastructure, the navy, the CCG, and continued military funding.

Except for their four year fiscal plan.........hard to build ships without any money

Smallc refuses to support his claim that the Liberals will fund new shipbuilding, inside this mandate, despite the Liberal's own fiscal plan not containing any new money for new ships.

[Smallc]

There is no difference between Liberal and Conservative defence and CCG spending thus far. They have included all planned spending and increases (including that in budget 2015). What you're getting at I have no idea.

[Derek 2.0]

There is no difference between Liberal and Conservative defence and CCG spending thus far. They have included all planned spending and increases (including that in budget 2015). What you're getting at I have no idea.

The annual defense budget, under this Government or the one previous contained no new funds for new frigates and fighters. The new Liberal Government, as per their own fiscal plan have no new money for said new ships or fighters. Irving shipbuilding, doesn't have the capacity to build new frigates inside this mandate of the Trudeau Government, as they will be building the already funded AOPS vessels through 2020.

Hence your baseless claims that the new Trudeau Government will be procuring new frigates inside this mandate is absurd.

[Smallc]

I never once claimed that. Irving, the Prime Contractor for the CSC, plans to select the warship designer and combat systems integrator by 2017. From there, they'll spend the next 5 years designing the CSC.

There is conflicting information on the fighters. The 2014 procurement guide specifies 2018 - 2020 as a contract award date.A design would most likely be selected in this mandate. The first few jets may more may not appear before 2019 - 2020 when the next election occurs.

[bush_cheney2004]

Looks like the Canadian government is finally getting a reality check when it comes to shipbuilding:

A source close to one of Canada's large yards said delays and cost overruns could be attributed to the government's overheated expectations.

"Canada as a shipbuilding customer didn't understand because it had been out of the game for decades," the source said. "There was no shipbuilding industry. The government crashed it in the 1980s. The shipbuilding industry has been rebuilt."

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/shipbuilding-procurement-action-plan-1.3336604

[Derek 2.0]

I never once claimed that. Irving, the Prime Contractor for the CSC, plans to select the warship designer and combat systems integrator by 2017. From there, they'll spend the next 5 years designing the CSC.

Then what have you been arguing? As I've clearly stated, the Trudeau Government will not be purchasing new frigates inside this mandate, through to the end of this decade.

How is Irving going to select the warship designer and combat systems integrator in 2017 when the requirements will be mandated by the Trudeau Government's defense review? Said review could very well find, based on our past actual use of our frigates, combined with the Trudeau Government's own stated strategic priorities:

We will develop the Canadian Armed Forces into an agile, responsive, and wellequipped military force that can effectively defend Canada and North America; provide support during natural disasters, humanitarian support missions, and peace operations; and offer international deterrence and combat capability.

That we don't need ~15 guided missile destroyers and frigates to conduct said priorities, as every mission our current frigates have conducted, since they entered service, could have been done with an equal number of cutters. Vessels such as these, even on the high end such as the USCG's large National Security Cutters, could be had at nearly half the price, with a reduced lifetime operating cost and could have done each and everyone of the tasks our navy has done in the last ~25 years at a reduced cost.

If "stealth first strike fighters" don't fit into this Government's plans, why would large "American style, first strike guided missile battleships"?

There is conflicting information on the fighters. The 2014 procurement guide specifies 2018 - 2020 as a contract award date.A design would most likely be selected in this mandate. The first few jets may more may not appear before 2019 - 2020 when the next election occurs.

2014 procurement guide, written in 2013, by the previous Government......prior to it funding a Hornet life extension program, that will see the Hornets serve until ~2025.......There will be no contract awarded inside this Government's mandate unless they add billions in new spending to their outlined fiscal plan..........

To paraphrase Gus Grissom: "No bucks, no Buck Rogers"........

What really makes you think this Government is going to spend 10s of billions of dollars (if ever), money they don't currently have budgeted, before conducting a full review of our nation's defense requirements? That, in itself, is putting the cart before the horse, as said review could determine we have no need to spend 10s of billions of dollars on a first or second rate combat capable force, when there are no real direct threats to our Nation.

[Derek 2.0]

Looks like the Canadian government is finally getting a reality check when it comes to shipbuilding:

Right, but far more telling:

The government's massive $39-billion national shipbuilding procurement strategy (NSPS) is in need of repair, with costs for some projects soaring by as much as 181 per cent and others on the cusp of being cancelled, according to briefing materials prepared for some Liberal ministers.

If some programs are going to soar upwards of 181% of cost (for simple Coast Guard vessels) how are they going to contend with a similar increase for the frigates? How does a Justin Trudeau Government gain support for building "guided missile style battleships" at ~$26 billion, let alone ~$70 billion?

[bush_cheney2004]

....If some programs are going to soar upwards of 181% of cost (for simple Coast Guard vessels) how are they going to contend with a similar increase for the frigates? How does a Justin Trudeau Government gain support for building "guided missile style battleships" at ~$26 billion, let alone ~$70 billion?

Maybe those very wealthy 25,000 refugees can help pay for them....otherwise, it ain't a gonna happen.