Smallc Posted October 5, 2011 Author Report Posted October 5, 2011 Smallc, what did the polls show going into the election? Were the polls close between the NDP and the Conservatives, or did the polls show the NDP leading in the polls? Because it was going on at the same time as the Ontario election, there were very few polls. Of the 4 polls I saw, one had the NDP leading by 9 points, and the next (the same day) had them trailing by 2. The two latest polls had them 3 ahead of the Conservatives, and that seems to be reflected here. Quote
capricorn Posted October 5, 2011 Report Posted October 5, 2011 Thank you. Quote "We always want the best man to win an election. Unfortunately, he never runs." Will Rogers
Smallc Posted October 5, 2011 Author Report Posted October 5, 2011 (edited) It appears that the popular vote will be: 45.5% NDP 44.5% PC 7.3% L That has the NDP down 2.5% in the popular vote, and the PCs up 6.5%. The seat count is: 35 NDP 21 PC 1 L That count means that the NDP is down 1 seat (though because or redistribution, they're technically down 3 seats), the PCs up 1 (though again, because of redistribution, they're actually up 4), and the Liberals are down 1 seat from 2007 (though they had previously lost that seat in a by-election). Edited October 5, 2011 by Smallc Quote
capricorn Posted October 5, 2011 Report Posted October 5, 2011 Oops, looks like winning NDP Selinger broke tradition and spoke before the losing second place Conservative McFadyen could have his say. Quote "We always want the best man to win an election. Unfortunately, he never runs." Will Rogers
Smallc Posted October 5, 2011 Author Report Posted October 5, 2011 My riding has been declared as an NDP hold, but I'm still watching, as, with almost 20 polling stations to report, the margin has narrowed from 600 votes at its height to bout 300 votes. Quote
capricorn Posted October 5, 2011 Report Posted October 5, 2011 It appears that the popular vote will be: 45.5% NDP 44.5% PC 7.3% L Interesting. Quote "We always want the best man to win an election. Unfortunately, he never runs." Will Rogers
Smallc Posted October 5, 2011 Author Report Posted October 5, 2011 (edited) Oops, looks like winning NDP Selinger broke tradition and spoke before the losing second place Conservative McFadyen could have his say. He spoke after McFadyen as far as I can tell, although I didn't watch the end of the PC speech. Maybe he didn't let him finish? Edited October 5, 2011 by Smallc Quote
capricorn Posted October 5, 2011 Report Posted October 5, 2011 Watching the coverage, it looked like both men were speaking at the same time. Not that it makes that much difference in the grand scheme. The result is what counts. Quote "We always want the best man to win an election. Unfortunately, he never runs." Will Rogers
Smallc Posted October 5, 2011 Author Report Posted October 5, 2011 (edited) 45.4% NDP 44.4% PC 7.6% L Oh, and Selinger didn't let McFadyen finish, although apparently, McFadyen started late. Edited October 5, 2011 by Smallc Quote
blueblood Posted October 5, 2011 Report Posted October 5, 2011 McFadyen resigned No change at all. A few ridings up in the air stayed orange. There were some issues that could have been used, but weren't. If the pcs couldn't expand on those issues, I think the ndp might even get a 5th term. Apparently the pcs only ran on change, but I didn't see anything for alternatives. It looked like the pcs tried to out ndp the ndp this time around. Apparently the ndp had plans to balance the budget faster than the tories. The tories need a better communicator about fiscal conservatism. They should have looked at the sask party for ideas. It was a hard election to go in with the low unemployment, improving economy, and the return of the jets. The sask party pulled it off in 07 with a similar circumstances. If manitoba is an indicator of things, hudak is going to have a long night. Well done smallc, bubbermiley and punked, you guys guessed right. Quote "Stop the Madness!!!" - Kevin O'Leary "Money is the ultimate scorecard of life!". - Kevin O'Leary Economic Left/Right: 4.00 Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -0.77
BubberMiley Posted October 5, 2011 Report Posted October 5, 2011 I figured Selinger had it in the bag as soon as I saw he had a seat at the table with Chipman and Thomson and Bettman to announce the return of the Jets. How do you lose an election after that? Quote "I think it's fun watching the waldick get all excited/knickers in a knot over something." -scribblet
Smallc Posted October 5, 2011 Author Report Posted October 5, 2011 Well done smallc, bubbermiley and punked, you guys guessed right. Maybe, but I didn't expect the popular vote to be as close as it was. The NDP lost very little support, but the PCs gained a great deal. I'm really surprised that McFadyen resigned, given that. Though Manitoba isn't in the same position as its cousins to the west, this NDP government has been rather fiscally Conservative. Even the Fraser institute that I dislike so much gave Gary Doer the second best rating of any premier. Nothing has changed under Selinger. The NDP had a great deal going for them. Healthcare is better than, well, ever, the economy is better than well, ever, and the despite the recent gang war and arson murders, which created a spike after last years low murder number, crime is actually down in Winnipeg and in this province (though that isn't the perception) in general. There's also the good work that the NDP did after the flood (and remember, I was skeptical at first with that). This all allowed them to keep government in a big way, even if they lost some of their southern votes which really, bought them nothing anyway. You're right about something else, too. McFadyen led a campaign that was, in many ways, to the left of the NDP. I think that lost him many swing ridings. All in all, I'm happy with the results, just as I'm happy with the results in PEI and Alberta. Quote
Smallc Posted October 5, 2011 Author Report Posted October 5, 2011 (edited) Just an update, the semi final numbers are: 37 NDP 19 PC 1 L That means a gain of 1 for the NDP (and a provincial record), but a technical loss of 1 because of redistribution, a loss of 1 for the PCs, but a technical gain of 2 because of redistribution, and a loss of 1 for the Liberals. The vote percentage: 46% NDP 43.9% PC 7.5% L Oh, and the Green party got 2.5% of the vote. Edited October 5, 2011 by Smallc Quote
wyly Posted October 5, 2011 Report Posted October 5, 2011 Just an update, the semi final numbers are: 37 NDP 19 PC 1 L That means a gain of 1 for the NDP (and a provincial record), but a technical loss of 1 because of redistribution, a loss of 1 for the PCs, but a technical gain of 2 because of redistribution, and a loss of 1 for the Liberals. The vote percentage: 45.9% NDP 44% PC 7.5% L Oh, and the Green party got 2.5% of the vote. screwy electoral process, less than 2% difference in popular vote...even though I like the NDP win, we need to change the way we elect governments... Quote “Conservatives are not necessarily stupid, but most stupid people are conservatives.”- John Stuart Mill
BubberMiley Posted October 5, 2011 Report Posted October 5, 2011 A fourth majority government is impressive enough, but I never would have thought they would gain seats. Manitoba has been weathering the economic downturn extraordinarily well though. Obviously there wasn't a widespread feeling there needs to be a change. Quote "I think it's fun watching the waldick get all excited/knickers in a knot over something." -scribblet
Smallc Posted October 5, 2011 Author Report Posted October 5, 2011 screwy electoral process, less than 2% difference in popular vote...even though I like the NDP win, we need to change the way we elect governments... No, we don't. The popular vote isn't the only way to form a government. Our system is far more stable because of the way it's designed, and our candidates are accountable to the people in the local constituency that they represent. Quote
wyly Posted October 5, 2011 Report Posted October 5, 2011 No, we don't. The popular vote isn't the only way to form a government. Our system is far more stable because of the way it's designed, and our candidates are accountable to the people in the local constituency that they represent. if it's stability you crave a dictatorship is even more stable ...but I prefer democracy and ours is seriously flawed, it is not properly accountable to the people nor does it fairly represent them... Quote “Conservatives are not necessarily stupid, but most stupid people are conservatives.”- John Stuart Mill
Smallc Posted October 5, 2011 Author Report Posted October 5, 2011 if it's stability you crave a dictatorship is even more stable ...but I prefer democracy and ours is seriously flawed, it is not properly accountable to the people nor does it fairly represent them... Actually, it does represent them. Manitoba, more than almost anywhere else, ensures that true rep by pop is almost always present. Democracy isn't all about voting and getting the outcomes that you want. Ours works rather well. Quote
wyly Posted October 6, 2011 Report Posted October 6, 2011 Actually, it does represent them. Manitoba, more than almost anywhere else, ensures that true rep by pop is almost always present. Democracy isn't all about voting and getting the outcomes that you want. Ours works rather well. really?...and here i was all these years thinking democracy was about voting and getting fair representation...sure glad you're here to set me straight... Quote “Conservatives are not necessarily stupid, but most stupid people are conservatives.”- John Stuart Mill
Smallc Posted October 6, 2011 Author Report Posted October 6, 2011 really?...and here i was all these years thinking democracy was about voting and getting fair representation...sure glad you're here to set me straight... If you think that's all that democracy is about, you're wrong. Democracy is a means to an end, and not an end unto itself. In order for democracy to work, it has to involve far more than voting. Quote
fellowtraveller Posted October 6, 2011 Report Posted October 6, 2011 One thing for sure, the Manitoba NDP are not going to be putting forth any legislation to enable the normal NDP mantra of proportional representation. Quote The government should do something.
Smallc Posted October 6, 2011 Author Report Posted October 6, 2011 One thing for sure, the Manitoba NDP are not going to be putting forth any legislation to enable the normal NDP mantra of proportional representation. That's never been the mantra of the Manitoba NDP...ever. Though this NDP belongs to the national party (they have to), they share very little with them when it comes to policy. Quote
Smallc Posted October 20, 2011 Author Report Posted October 20, 2011 Pretty good news throne speech: http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/breakingnews/No-surprises-in-NDP-throne-speech-132258828.html 3 new MRIs (one in my RHA), telehealth in my community, several expanded hospitals to add to those that have just happened, are happening, and are about to happen, more police and prosecutors, weekend court, improving education. Glad the right people won the election. Quote
lukin Posted October 20, 2011 Report Posted October 20, 2011 Pretty good news throne speech: http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/breakingnews/No-surprises-in-NDP-throne-speech-132258828.html 3 new MRIs (one in my RHA), telehealth in my community, several expanded hospitals to add to those that have just happened, are happening, and are about to happen, more police and prosecutors, weekend court, improving education. Glad the right people won the election. Do you approve of the work your MLA, Stan Struthers, is doing? Quote
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