How federal Liberals can defeat Harper without joining the NDP

[bloodyminded]

Kind of - sort of....maybe. The NDP gained 7 seats outside Quebec. The Conservatives gained 28. It was a miracle in Quebec and the implosion of the Liberals that led to the "Orange Wave" but it was a tsunami in Quebec and only a mild ripple in the ROC.

But I'm not talking about seats; I'm talking about the general rise in popularity which did not lead to actual seats.

That is, more people turned from "not supporting NDP" to "supporting NDP" than did a similar change occur for the Conservatives.

The Conservatives got more support, clearly. It's the before and after distinction that I'm talking about.

Edited June 18, 2011 by bloodyminded

[Tilter]

How federal Liberals can defeat Harper without joining the NDP

Just remember--- Voodoo is not a recognized political tool & the Libs are lacking a Wizard-- (they have a few lizards) and can't afford to rent one.

[Newfoundlander]

But I'm not talking about seats; I'm talking about the general rise in popularity which did not lead to actual seats.

That is, more people turned from "not supporting NDP" to "supporting NDP" than did a similar change occur for the Conservatives.

The Conservatives got more support, clearly. It's the before and after distinction that I'm talking about.

Around 11% of the NDP's 30% is from Quebec. Last election Quebec account from about 3% of their national vote. So their supported really never went up that much outside Quebec.

[Evening Star]

Around 11% of the NDP's 30% is from Quebec. Last election Quebec account from about 3% of their national vote. So their supported really never went up that much outside Quebec.

Comparing

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_election_2011#Results_by_province

to

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_election_2008#Results_by_province :

their share of the popular vote rose by 7.5% in BC, 4.1% in AB, 6.7% in SK, 7.4% in ON, 7.9% in NB, 5.6% in PE, 5.4% in YT, and 4.3% in NT. There were slight gains in MB and NS and a slight loss in NL. The only place where they lost a significant share of the popular vote (8.2%) was in NU.

Any party would be pleased by these gains. They just seem small compared to the radical shift in QC.

Edited June 18, 2011 by Evening Star

[Newfoundlander]

Comparing

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_election_2011#Results_by_province

to

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_election_2008#Results_by_province :

their share of the popular vote rose by 7.5% in BC, 4.1% in AB, 6.7% in SK, 7.4% in ON, 7.9% in NB, 5.6% in PE, 5.4% in YT, 4.3%. There were slight gains in MB and NS and a slight loss in NL. The only place where they lost a significant share of the popular vote (8.2%) was in NU.

Any party would be pleased by these gains. They just seem small compared to the radical shift in QC.

Yes their national results were still very good, I'm getting confused with something though I don't know.

Anyway this is't about the Laytonmania.

[Newfoundlander]

I've just started listening to the extraordinary convention, I don't know how long I can handle it though. I'm hoping Jeff Jedras' amendment calling for the leadership convention to be held early next fall passes, the party shouldn't wait till 2013 to elect a new leader.

While I think the party has alot more issues then just leadership they need a leader in place to help define them. I'll discuss this more later.

[Newfoundlander]

The leadership convention will not be held till 2013 now, I think this is a horrible idea.

Edited June 18, 2011 by Newfoundlander

[Sandy MacNab]

The leadership convention will not be held till 2013 now, I think this is a horrible idea.

The LPC needs to be purged and disinfected. Maybe they're hoping they can turn things around by then; so two or more candidates who might want to lead come forward.

[August1991]

I agree that the LPC is badly behind the 8-ball in terms of fundraising-have been for a long, long time- but I would submit that, within the confines of funding and membership limitations, they do know 'how many folks in poll 142 of CSouth are opposed to abortion', etc.

And they weren't afraid to use a professional bagman 20 years ago. (Bad idea anyway, imo.) I don't suppose they've forgotten or given that idea up. I'd be more inclined to suspect they may have lost some of that intimate information-base through untying fund-raising from polling/recruitment.

Molly, I am not sure what your point is. IMV, the Liberals were able to organize $200 a plate dinners in Toronto where a Bay Street law firm would buy several tables. But with the current financing law, the Liberals are lost. They are incapable of doing what Obama and Harper do: raise millions of dollars from small donations. Based on the same logic (and opposed to you), I don't think there's anyone in the Liberal office in Ottawa who knows 'how many folks in poll 142 of CSouth are opposed to abortion'.

I'll clearly assert this, though: The LPC has targetted thoughtful membershipand rational votes- has consistently made appeals to the head- while the CPC has addressed the lowest common denominator, keeping the goal (money and votes) in mind, regardless of the morality or the rationality foundation for recieving them. The LPC may stand correctly accused of grossly overestimating the intelligence of voters.

Yadda, yadda. If you say so, whatever.

The leadership convention will not be held till 2013 now, I think this is a horrible idea.

In their bludgeoned state, even Liberals understand that it was the only sensible idea. The last thing the Liberals need now is a leadership race. Edited June 19, 2011 by August1991

[August1991]

Comparing

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_election_2011#Results_by_province

to

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_election_2008#Results_by_province :

their share of the popular vote rose by 7.5% in BC, 4.1% in AB, 6.7% in SK, 7.4% in ON, 7.9% in NB, 5.6% in PE, 5.4% in YT, and 4.3% in NT. There were slight gains in MB and NS and a slight loss in NL. The only place where they lost a significant share of the popular vote (8.2%) was in NU.

Any party would be pleased by these gains. They just seem small compared to the radical shift in QC.

Sorry, ES. You are letting your own biases influence the facts. And the simple fact is that English Canadian voters did not significantly switch to the NDP. The NDP's current success is entirely due to Quebecers desperately looking for a way out of the National Question impasse.

This matters to the Liberals because in 2015, the NDP will not enjoy the same advantage. (I suggest that you look up the wikipedia article for the ADQ.) The NDP has already committed two horrible faux pas. First, the election night victory party was in English in Toronto. Second, the first party convention after the election was held in Vancouver.

I would not be surprised if a large part of the NDP caucus chooses to sit separately in a year or so, and Layton may lose as a result the keys to Stornoway.

Edited June 19, 2011 by August1991

[bloodyminded]

Sorry, ES. You are letting your own biases influence the facts. And the simple fact is that English Canadian voters did not significantly switch to the NDP. The NDP's current success is entirely due to Quebecers desperately looking for a way out of the National Question impasse.

If it was "entirely" so, then why not a Cosnervative "surge," for one example?

In terms of seats, yes, Quebec was the driver in NDP success...but in fact the NDP had the largest increase in support, by far, across the country.

True, it did not translate into (English Canadian) seats in any truly monumental way (though it potentially could do so later); but it nonetheless undermines part of your assertion.

[Evening Star]

Sorry, ES. You are letting your own biases influence the facts.

Pretty much all I did was list statistics! How did my biases influence those?

--

I can see how there is room for bias when it comes to interpreting the statistics, which is what you were doing.

Edited June 19, 2011 by Evening Star

[Newfoundlander]

The leader is major aspect in defining the party and rebuilding it, the Liberals are planning on going now 2 years without a permanent one. When they finally do choose the leader it will be only two years before the next election, which really isn't that much time. I shouldn't have said it is a horrible idea but I do think it would be better to have the leadership next fall. Hopefully they will use all this time wisely. I think with so much time come January the party should look at changing the process of how the next leader is chosen so that they can engage as many people as possible in choosing the she or he. Time will also give potential candidates from outside the current caucus time to build a profile, hopefully leading to many different options when choosing the leader. I’m also supportive of having a fairly long leadership race, not constant campaigning or anything but when you consider the campaign for the Mayor of Toronto basically took 9 months then we should have more then a couple of months to get to know a potential Prime Minister. Maybe there will be some by-election wins before 2013 as well, though I think it will be hard for their popularity to rise without a permanent leader.

I'll be interested in seeing who comes forward now that there is so much time, On paper Ted Hsu would make an excellent leader so I'll be interesed in seeing how he does over the next two years. Sandra Pupatello has decided to retire from provincial politics, I saw her name mentioned in a blog recently as a potential leadership candidate. Any others?

[Molly]

Molly, I am not sure what your point is. IMV, the Liberals were able to organize $200 a plate dinners in Toronto where a Bay Street law firm would buy several tables. But with the current financing law, the Liberals are lost. They are incapable of doing what Obama and Harper do: raise millions of dollars from small donations. Based on the same logic (and opposed to you), I don't think there's anyone in the Liberal office in Ottawa who knows 'how many folks in poll 142 of CSouth are opposed to abortion'.

My point is that fundraising, polling and campaigning are very separate enterprises, and that there are many ways to approach each;

that while the LPC sucks at fund-raising and obviously has done a crappy job of campaigning lately too, their polling - the grasp of what individual voters think on any given subject- is as good or better than anyones.

Part of the trouble here is that you seem to be making the assumption that 'beating Harper' is a goal unto itself. If it was, then that's pretty darned doable if truth and morality,fair play and the good of the people are to be abandoned like yesterday's diaper. The real goal is to convince people to act upon some pretty complex ideas.

The CPC has taken on the K-tel model and it's working for them.... meh. They are selling a K-tel product.

[Newfoundlander]

Should Stephane Dion have resigned as leader after the 2008 election or not in?

Edited June 19, 2011 by Newfoundlander

[Keepitsimple]

But I'm not talking about seats; I'm talking about the general rise in popularity which did not lead to actual seats.

That is, more people turned from "not supporting NDP" to "supporting NDP" than did a similar change occur for the Conservatives.

The Conservatives got more support, clearly. It's the before and after distinction that I'm talking about.

You're right. There is a distinction. It's all about the redistribtion of former Liberal votes. In the Maritimes, the Conservatives came out ahead with large gains in Nfld/Lab and Nova Scotia while the NDP stayed about the same. They split in PEI and the NDP had an edge in NB......but in the West and North - with the exception of Manitoba and Nunavut, the NDP made significant gains in picking up the Liberal vote - more so than the Conservatives.

[bloodyminded]

You're right. There is a distinction. It's all about the redistribtion of former Liberal votes. In the Maritimes, the Conservatives came out ahead with large gains in Nfld/Lab and Nova Scotia while the NDP stayed about the same. They split in PEI and the NDP had an edge in NB......but in the West and North - with the exception of Manitoba and Nunavut, the NDP made significant gains in picking up the Liberal vote - more so than the Conservatives.

Yeah. And just for the record, I'm making no grandiose claims about the NDP's future.

I might have done, except that when the last election began, I predicted a minority Conservative government (with fewer seats than they already held, not more); and an increase in Liberal seats; and two or three seats picked up by the NDP.

(To be fair to myself, this was, broadly, the "conventional wisdom"; I bet the parties themselves secretly made the same predictions.)

So now I make no confident-sounding predictions about parties' political futures. You just never know.

[August1991]

Pretty much all I did was list statistics! How did my biases influence those?

Because the percentages are small, and there is no context.

In 2011, the NDP added about 2 million voters compared to 2008. About one third or a half of these voters (700,000 to 1 million) live in Quebec. I suspect too that the NDP drew about 300,000 from the Greens.

For the Liberals, this matters.

[August1991]

My point is that fundraising, polling and campaigning are very separate enterprises, and that there are many ways to approach each;

that while the LPC sucks at fund-raising and obviously has done a crappy job of campaigning lately too, their polling - the grasp of what individual voters think on any given subject- is as good or better than anyones.

I disagree. Fundraising, polling and campaigning are intimately tied together. A modern political party has to know who potentially will vote for the party and where they are.

And no, IMHO, the LPC has no idea who or where their potential voters are west of Thunder Bay, or even elsewhere in Canada.

Part of the trouble here is that you seem to be making the assumption that 'beating Harper' is a goal unto itself. If it was, then that's pretty darned doable if truth and morality,fair play and the good of the people are to be abandoned like yesterday's diaper. The real goal is to convince people to act upon some pretty complex ideas.

The CPC has taken on the K-tel model and it's working for them.... meh. They are selling a K-tel product.

If I were a Liberal, of course I would want to beat Harper. But I gather Molly that you are an ideologue incapable of discussing this question dispassionately. IMV, we live in a democracy and to gain power, it takes raw electoral calculation.

"Convince people"? Politicians can try that but it's generally better to take people as they are.

Edited June 20, 2011 by August1991

[Newfoundlander]

The Liberals are up a bit in the latest Nanos poll, only about 3% from the election but it's better then going down like the NDP have. They've seen a 7% gain in Ontario while the NDP have dropped, possibly due to their stances on Quebec, if the Liberals had gotten this result on election night they'd likely have a lot more seats and we could have a minority. Having a minority would have likely been bad for the Liberals.

[Newfoundlander]

Sandra Pupatello's husband was expected to be acclaimed as a candidate Wednesday for the Liberals in Newfoundland and Labrador, but for whatever reason nominations in the district closed and it does not appear that the Liberals managed to get a candidate. Is it possible two of them might be leaving politics at the moment to get ready for Sandra's federal Liberal leadership bid?

[August1991]

The Liberals are up a bit in the latest Nanos poll, only about 3% from the election but it's better then going down like the NDP have.

The Liberals are dead in the water, and they are getting this all wrong.

I wonder about a Canada without a federal Liberal party.

[RNG]

The Liberals are dead in the water, and they are getting this all wrong.

I wonder about a Canada without a federal Liberal party.

I strongly believe that the NDP support will slowly drop while the Liberals slowly rebound. Think of the history of our country. As long as Harper keeps the CPC close to the center, it will still be a tough row to hoe.

[fellowtraveller]

In simple terms, there are millions of Canadians willing to give $50 to the federal Liberal Party and vote Liberal in the next election.

Those are two massive assumptions for which you have provided no support at all.

The Libs have managed to cede the center to the Tories without much of a fight. Big mistake, they'll have trouble getting it back. Good news for the Tories is that Jacques Layton/NDP have no apparent interest in the center.

[Newfoundlander]

As Jack and the NDP cater to Quebec I think their fortunes will drop in elsewhere. The latest Nanos poll showed a major rebound for the Liberals in Ontario and a drop the NDP, I think the west may also alienated by the NDP's catering to Quebec like they did with the PCs in the 1990's. If the Liberals can show themselves to be a new fresher party that is fiscally responsible they may be able to win new support in Western Canada from dissatisfied Dippers and possibly Conservatives. A number of the New Democratic Parties in Western Canada have pretty much just been Liberal Parties, Gary Doer for example has been said to be a big L liberal.

They are possibly waiting to long to choose a new leader because I don't know how credible it sounds for Bob Rae to be talking about problems being caused by the "left" and the "right".