NDP are the big election winners

[maplesyrup]

What role can the New Democrats play now?

[playfullfellow]

Layton has to make sure he does not get sucked in by Martin with empty promises. As we all know, Martin is not the most honest person around.

[idealisttotheend]

Yes Layton should keep Martin to his promises on Health Care and Day Care. He should also insist on PR. If he can get that in then that would be well worth the entire Parlaiment. He should ensure the Liberals run centre left instead of centre right.

[Michael Hardner]

He should also insist on PR. If he can get that in then that would be well worth the entire Parlaiment. He should ensure the Liberals run centre left instead of centre right.

PR at this point may happen, but if it does it's just gerrymandering.

I hope they don't do it. The timing is wrong. For every ten seats they allocate to PR, the Libs and NDP give themselves another 2-4 combined seat lead over the CPC and that's not right.

[August1991]

Not over until it's over. Libs+NDP form a razor thin majority.

But true, I never would have thunk. I'm sure there are many NDP voters who put an X by a Liberal name.

Layton ran a good campaign. The ads at the end "You have a positive choice" were attack-ad, but civilized.

[BQSupporter]

Sorry Maple, but your dream isn't going to happen in a hung House of Commons.

It will be the BQ that will hold the real power

[caesar]

Actually, neither the NDP nor the BQ will hold a real balance of power. The Liberals will only need the support of either one or the other. They will only need this support when there are issues where one of these two parties would support the Conservatives. They will have to court the BQ / Quebec vote on many issues to bring Quebec back into the fold. We do need to keep Quebec happy or face more separation threats. At this time, a Liberal/NDP coalition would require Chuck Cadman's support. Perhaps he holds as much a balance of power as do the BQ and NDP. He won handily after being dumped by the Conservatives who said he would not be welcomed back into their fold.

[maplesyrup]

The only combinations for a majority are as follows:

Don't forget to remove one for the speaker, because one cannot assume the speaker will come from the opposition ranks:

Lib + Bloc - speaker = 135 + 54 - 1 = 188

Lib + Cons - speaker = 135 + 99 -1 = 233

That's it.

The numbers are not there for any other combination.

Libs + New Dem + Ind - speaker = 135 + 19 + 1 -1 = 154 (not enough as 155 required for majority)

Cons + Bloc + Ind - Speaker = 99 + 54 + 1 - 1 = 153 (once again not enough for majority)

BTW Cadman is a Conservative - he just lost his Cons nomination battle to a mass sign-up process.

[August1991]

This won't work for long. Have you ever tried to arrange a meeting with 150 people?

Usually, in a minority government, the whips agree to hold back members if other members are absent so that a vote goes through.

With numbers so close, they may not do that.

BTW, the BQ will find it difficult to impossible to vote for a Liberal confidence motion.

[Cartman]

All the NDP can do is push Martin to live up to a few promises and perhaps take some credit heading into the next election. I cannot believe that Anderson argued that they will run as though they still held a majority. He just doesn't understand that it is because of this kind of attitude that they were spanked.