Probing the pollsters

[betsy]

CBC official pollster for the CBC Frank Graves really blew it! Just like the guy who created the Vote Compass for the CBC, Graves was an adviser for the Liberals. Just watch this probe by Ezra Levant.

http://www.sunnewsnetwork.ca/video/featured/prime-time/867432237001/probing-the-pollsters/931184303001

The taxpayers shouldn't be paying for the CBC!

[guyser]

Just watch this probe by Ezra Levant.

Probe? What probe? Ezra coiuldnt probe his own ass with a mirror and a long stick.

It was Ezra trying to make a case against Frank for being out 2% on the Libs and 7% on the Cons.

Oh my....pollsters are wrong. Frank even tweeted the next day he blew it. So .....it aint no worry.

[Shady]

Probe? What probe? Ezra coiuldnt probe his own ass with a mirror and a long stick.

It was Ezra trying to make a case against Frank for being out 2% on the Libs and 7% on the Cons.

Oh my....pollsters are wrong. Frank even tweeted the next day he blew it. So .....it aint no worry.

Interesting how he overstated the Liberals support and understated the Conservative support. I'm sure that was just a coincidence.

But making an error of 7+% is quite a lot for a pollster. He should probably find another job. That's far greater than the margin of error. But at least if he's going to be so wrong on a poll, he should be wrong on his own dime. Not on the taxpayer's.

[lukin]

Interesting how he overstated the Liberals support and understated the Conservative support. I'm sure that was just a coincidence.

But making an error of 7+% is quite a lot for a pollster. He should probably find another job. That's far greater than the margin of error. But at least if he's going to be so wrong on a poll, he should be wrong on his own dime. Not on the taxpayer's.

Small c was yippin about the last EKOS poll before the election. I told him right then, Sunday night, that frank graves has no credibility. I was right.

[Smallc]

Small c was yippin about the last EKOS poll before the election. I told him right then, Sunday night, that frank graves has no credibility. I was right.

All of that said, the reason Graves was so far off is because Liberal and NDP voters didn't show up. That gave the Conservatives a disproportionate share of the vote - but I'm not complaining.

[guyser]

Interesting how he overstated the Liberals support and understated the Conservative support. I'm sure that was just a coincidence.

Go ahead and look at angus reid. They were way off too. Funny that isnt it?

But making an error of 7+% is quite a lot for a pollster. He should probably find another job. That's far greater than the margin of error. But at least if he's going to be so wrong on a poll, he should be wrong on his own dime. Not on the taxpayer's.

It wasnt billed to the taxpayer silly boy.

[ToadBrother]

CBC official pollster for the CBC Frank Graves really blew it! Just like the guy who created the Vote Compass for the CBC, Graves was an adviser for the Liberals. Just watch this probe by Ezra Levant.

http://www.sunnewsnetwork.ca/video/featured/prime-time/867432237001/probing-the-pollsters/931184303001

The taxpayers shouldn't be paying for the CBC!

Why does it not surprise me that you read Levant's crapola. Not even the Tories want anything to do with that self-righteous blowhard any more.

[punked]

All of that said, the reason Graves was so far off is because Liberal and NDP voters didn't show up. That gave the Conservatives a disproportionate share of the vote - but I'm not complaining.

To be fair in Ontario a bunch of blue Liberals broke to the Conservatives and no pollster picked up on that one.

[ToadBrother]

All of that said, the reason Graves was so far off is because Liberal and NDP voters didn't show up. That gave the Conservatives a disproportionate share of the vote - but I'm not complaining.

I think plenty of NDP voters showed up. I think it was Liberal voters that just stayed home. Couldn't bear to prop up the carcass of their chosen party, but unwilling to surrender to the inevitability of the Orange Tide, they sat in front of their TVs slamming gin and cough syrup and chewing nails.

[ToadBrother]

To be fair in Ontario a bunch of blue Liberals broke to the Conservatives and no pollster picked up on that one.

That's an interesting take, and I wonder if all those God-fearing religious social conservatives in the old Reform rump within the Tories have pondered the fact that the NDP will probably have more influence over government policy than they will.

[punked]

I think plenty of NDP voters showed up. I think it was Liberal voters that just stayed home. Couldn't bear to prop up the carcass of their chosen party, but unwilling to surrender to the inevitability of the Orange Tide, they sat in front of their TVs slamming gin and cough syrup and chewing nails.

No one stayed home the vote went up this time. The Liberals got their lunch ate however I believe up until the last days there were old school Liberals holding out hope for their party. The last day when they saw their party dying they had to vote "Not NDP" which meant Harper.

[guyser]

Did ANYONE predict the results beforehand?

[punked]

That's an interesting take, and I wonder if all those God-fearing religious social conservatives in the old Reform rump within the Tories have pondered the fact that the NDP will probably have more influence over government policy than they will.

One can only hope. I truly believe Harper and Layton respect each other and will try to work together on the few things they can agree on. They will shout at each other on everything else but they both know they are there for Canada and will be fine.

[Topaz]

The pollster can not predict what will happen because they don't know for sure that the people being polled are telling the truth. I know of people that told the opposite way they voted. SunTV, seems to being attacking for competitor,at least, one of them, I wonder when they hit the others?

[TimG]

To be fair in Ontario a bunch of blue Liberals broke to the Conservatives and no pollster picked up on that one.

Which is why is completely rediculous to assume the remaining Liberal vote would go NDP if the the Libs dissappeared. The BC Liberal party has successfully merged federal liberals and tories for years. Edited May 4, 2011 by TimG

[punked]

Which is why is completely rediculous to assume the remaining Liberal vote would go NDP if the the Libs dissappeared. The BC Liberal party has successfully merged federal liberals and tories for years.

Sure the Liberals merged with the Conservatives all the time. Quebec, BC, Manitoba, Sask I agree the Liberal party is a right wing party however most of the base is progressive. As long as they break 75-25 for the NDP you are looking at an NDP government.

[Sandy MacNab]

That's an interesting take, and I wonder if all those God-fearing religious social conservatives in the old Reform rump within the Tories have pondered the fact that the NDP will probably have more influence over government policy than they will.

The religious right and the politically correct left loonies of the NDP are both poisonous to Canada.

[cybercoma]

Small c was yippin about the last EKOS poll before the election. I told him right then, Sunday night, that frank graves has no credibility. I was right.

Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Unless you can show me where you analyzed his methodologies and found an inconsistency or some kind of problem therein, you have no credibility.

[betsy]

This was an issue in 2010.

Excerpt...

Culture war

Pollster Frank Graves apologizes,

denies anti-Tory bias

Bill Curry

Globe and Mail Update

Posted on Friday, April 23, 2010 12:32PM EDT

Pollster Frank Graves, the EKOS pollster who provides weekly data and analysis for the CBC, is apologizing and retracting what he described as his own “incendiary” comments describing a potential strategy for the Liberal Party.

The comments produced a heated exchange on CBC’s Power and Politics (about 44 minutes in) Thursday between Mr. Graves and Conservative commentator Kory Teneycke. Mr. Teneycke, a former director of communications for Prime Minister Stephen Harper who is now paid by the CBC to provide regular commentary, accused Mr. Graves of having a Liberal bias and said his comments suggested Tories are racists and homophobes.

But in an interview today with The Globe and Mail to explain his apology, Mr. Graves went on to say that polling data shows the Conservative Party “does seem to provide a haven” for people with xenophobic or homophobic views.

Mr. Graves’ original comments, which were first quoted by columnist Lawrence Martin in The Globe, suggested he had told the Liberal Party it should invoke a “culture war” to battle the Conservatives. He described this as a battle between “cosmopolitanism versus parochialism, secularism versus moralism, Obama versus Palin, tolerance versus racism and homophobia, democracy versus autocracy. If the cranky old men in Albera don’t like it, too bad. Go south and vote for Palin.”

The president of the Conservative Party, John Walsh, filed a complaint with CBC’s Ombudsman.

“The fact that our national public broadcaster is using a pollster that is also advising the Liberal Party of Canada raises serious questions about the impartiality of Canada’s publicly funded national broadcaster,” he wrote.

Mr. Graves vehemently denies any formal advisory role with the Liberal Party. He said he regularly theorizes about what various parties should do while being interviewed by journalists or in casual discussions with politicians.

Mr. Graves said he was trying to show there are demonstrable differences between Conservative supporters and supporters of other parties.

“In reflection, it was inappropriate and I should have used more measured terms and I don’t think the Prime Minister’s racist or a homophobe, nor do I think members of his cabinet or his caucus are,” he told The Globe.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/pollster-frank-graves-apologizes-denies-anti-tory-bias/article1544593/

Edited May 5, 2011 by betsy

[betsy]

And the result from the complaint filed:

Excerpt..

The CBC's Graves mistake: Ombudsman's report a big disappointment

By Lorrie Goldstein ,Toronto Sun

CBC Ombudsman Vince Carlin is normally a thoughtful, perceptive journalist, which is why his seven-page report exonerating the CBC in the Frank Graves affair is so disappointing.

Instead of doing a serious analysis of the complex issue of perception versus reality raised by this controversy, Carlin accused the Conservatives of making "paranoia-tinged" fundraising appeals to their base by falsely accusing the CBC and Graves of being part of a "powerful array" of pro-Liberal "vested interests."

But surely, the CBC ombudsman's job is to explain decisions made by the publicly funded broadcaster to its audience, and to all Canadians, not get in hissing matches with political operatives.

When stating your conclusions about a controversy, surely you start by fully and accurately explaining how it began. Carlin doesn't.

This started with a comment by Graves, head of EKOS Research and a CBC pollster, to Globe and Mail columnist Lawrence Martin, in his April 21 column, "Michael Ignatieff is tacking left - finally."

Here's the advice Graves told Martin he gave the Liberals, which Carlin omits: "I told them that they should invoke a culture war. Cosmopolitanism versus parochialism, secularism versus moralism, Obama versus Palin, tolerance versus racism and homophobia, democracy versus autocracy. If the cranky old men in Alberta don't like it, too bad. Go south and vote for Palin."

Graves' problem is anyone reading this could reasonably conclude he's a paid Liberal adviser (Carlin concedes this), and given his loaded description of Liberal versus Conservative values, a Liberal.

The CBC's problem is anyone could reasonably conclude it thus employs a Liberal pollster, without identifying him, in violation of its journalistic policies.

From minimizing what Graves said to the Globe, Carlin minimizes what he said on the CBC.

Graves acknowledged in an exchange with Conservative Kory Teneycke (Stephen Harper's former communications director), he's donated $11,000 to the Liberals since 2001, compared to $500 to one Conservative candidate in the last election.

He fails to fully mention or address the significant difference between Graves' donations to the Liberals and Conservatives, other than by raising another straw man by observing: "It is interesting to note that no one has brought forth any serious evidence that EKOS methodology is skewed, only the guilt-by-association inference that since Mr. Graves has donated to the Liberal Party over the last decade (along with a small donation to a Progressive Conservative) that, therefore, his company's methodology is tainted."

C'mon. Surely, Carlin knows the real issue isn't whether Graves' polls are skewed, which would be professional suicide.

It's about the all-important journalistic and political issue of perception versus reality.

More…..

http://www.torontosun.com/comment/columnists/lorrie_goldstein/2010/05/21/14041741.html

I don't want to pay for the CBC. That network should be just like any other networks.

Is there any petition-signing to get CBC off the funding?

[betsy]

Did ANYONE predict the results beforehand?

Sunday Question Period did a poll among their viewers. The question was: Does the Conservatives deserve a majority?

74% said yes

18% said No

Looks like that poll reflected the outcome! The Cons got a majority!

The news featured a hamburger joint (can't remember the name) that did their own way of polling by selling burgers representing the various parties. They said the best-seller was the Conservatives....and they predicted they'll get the majority!

Btw, Joel Bellevance and Nik Nanos said that majority was still possible although it would really be tough getting it.

Edited May 5, 2011 by betsy

[Battletoads]

Typical Con, and by that I mean a moron.

Everyone (with a brain) realizes polling is not an exact science.

[betsy]

Typical Libs and by that I mean moron.

They don't see beyond the obvious. This is not about the science of polling, duh!

Edited May 5, 2011 by betsy

[Battletoads]

Typical Libs and by that I mean moron.

They don't see beyond the obvious. It's not about the science of polling, duh!

I'd tend to agree. Liberals are almost as bad as the cons