Tories turning attacks toward Layton, NDP

[nittanylionstorm07]

It was only a matter of time before this happened... but it is clear that nationally, the NDP is not only hammering at the Liberals and Bloc, but they are also bleeding support away from the Tories!

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/story/2011/04/22/cv-election-goodfriday.html

These types of ads should just further show how legitimate the NDP is, and they'll probably gain even more votes.

[punked]

Even the Bad news is Good news for the NDP these days. Conversely all the Liberals are getting this election is Bad news. I hope for Canadas sake those Liberals realize the NDP vote isn't collapsing and they better switch their vote.

Looks like the NDP got their act together. They are already calling this ad a lie and have all the citations to prove it.

http://www.ndp.ca/press/will-harper-withdraw-his-made-up-ads-2

These guys are on the ball.

Edited April 22, 2011 by punked

[nittanylionstorm07]

Even the Bad news is Good news for the NDP these days. Conversely all the Liberals are getting this election is Bad news. I hope for Canadas sake those Liberals realize the NDP vote isn't collapsing and they better switch their vote.

I can't get over the vocal minority of hard-headed Liberal supporters out there who still think the NDP are nothing, that Jack will never amount to anything, etc. etc. when Iggy has basically destroyed the Liberal party.

At this point, I'm wondering if the Liberals may be having their Kim Campbell moment. On the other hand, Ontario may just save them from that.

[nittanylionstorm07]

http://www.ndp.ca/press/will-harper-withdraw-his-made-up-ads-2

These guys are on the ball.

Nice! The NDP is running the most brilliant campaign in Canadian history at this point.

[RNG]

Even the Bad news is Good news for the NDP these days. Conversely all the Liberals are getting this election is Bad news. I hope for Canadas sake those Liberals realize the NDP vote isn't collapsing and they better switch their vote.

Looks like the NDP got their act together. They are already calling this ad a lie and have all the citations to prove it.

http://www.ndp.ca/press/will-harper-withdraw-his-made-up-ads-2

These guys are on the ball.

OK you Lib/NDP types. Welcome to our world. All the days that Reform/Alliance split the vote with the Tories. Now it's your turn. Iggy et al need to decide who or what they are. All they say is that they aren't the Cons, without saying what they are. So you both lose.

[punked]

Nice! The NDP is running the most brilliant campaign in Canadian history at this point.

Spread the word so when Liberals and Conservatives start using this argument NDP voters can shove the website calling it a lie in their Face.

[Smallc]

Spread the word so when Liberals and Conservatives start using this argument NDP voters can shove the website calling it a lie in their Face.

I think many people may vote in advance this time, and that could work in the NDPs favour.

[Topaz]

The Tories attacks ads don't work anymore because the voters are on to them, most of their ads are half truths or taken out of context. IF either the NDP or the Libs formed the government , I think it would be bitter-sweet. Why? We don't know how deep the deficit REALLY is and this could stop a lot of what these two parties are promising. I would like for the seating government to open the books and let the country really see how good or bad things are. I hate to see the NDP first time in there only to fall because of what the Tory party left behind.

[punked]

I think many people may vote in advance this time, and that could work in the NDPs favour.

I agree. I think Liberal voters are once again demovated by a poor leader as well. If they get in the booth there is no telling where they will really go.

I wonder where GWiz went he disappeared when the Liberals started to tank. I would love to hear what is going on it Winnipeg North this time.

Edited April 22, 2011 by punked

[Guest Derek L]

OK you Lib/NDP types. Welcome to our world. All the days that Reform/Alliance split the vote with the Tories. Now it's your turn. Iggy et al need to decide who or what they are. All they say is that they aren't the Cons, without saying what they are. So you both lose.

Tend to agree. On the 2nd, IMV, it will depend on this:

1. Will Liberal voters still vote Liberal?

2. How many Liberal voters from past elections, were just NDP voters trying to prevent a Tory majority?

3. Will centre-centre-right Liberal voters vote Tory? Stay home?

4. Will the recent polls putting the Tories in majority scare off the "soft Liberals" from voting NDP?

5. Will the NDP base come out and vote?

It will be intresting indeed....

[nittanylionstorm07]

4. Will the recent polls putting the Tories in majority scare off the "soft Liberals" from voting NDP?

Recent polls meaning solely the Ipsos which has a bad history of having high Conservative numbers? Because that's the only one that's like that.

[Shady]

It was only a matter of time before this happened... but it is clear that nationally, the NDP is not only hammering at the Liberals and Bloc, but they are also bleeding support away from the Tories!

I doubt that Tories are bleeding support to the NDP. Liberals and Bloc, yes, because their supporters are similar in political ideology.

[Guest Derek L]

Recent polls meaning solely the Ipsos which has a bad history of having high Conservative numbers? Because that's the only one that's like that.

Yeah, the Ipsos poll, and the Nanos poll shows them at 37.8% with a 3.1 +/-

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20110422/federal-election-campaign-poll-day-28-110422/20110422?s_name=election2011

[nittanylionstorm07]

I doubt that Tories are bleeding support to the NDP. Liberals and Bloc, yes, because their supporters are similar in political ideology.

British Columbia, Alberta (although only minimally), Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Quebec, and the Maritimes all have Tory to NDP areas with BC, MB, NS, and certain QC areas being the most pronounced.

Yeah, the Ipsos poll, and the Nanos poll shows them at 37.8% with a 3.1 +/-

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20110422/federal-election-campaign-poll-day-28-110422/20110422?s_name=election2011

That 37.8%, which btw, has been in a steady decline from past polls, is not even close to being a majority.

[Guest Derek L]

That 37.8%, which btw, has been in a steady decline from past polls, is not even close to being a majority.

...with a 3.1 +/-....what was the +/- in the Ekos poll the other day?

And I tend to "trust" the A-political projections from these guys:

http://threehundredeight.blogspot.com/2011/04/tight-race-for-second-as-conservatives.html

Which if one takes as the gospel, shows the Tories right about where they were at the start of the election ~150.......also of note, it shows the NDP/Lib tie in Quebec, which they translate into ~36 seats for the NDP, meaning no seat change from prior to the writ dropping....

Edited April 22, 2011 by Derek L

[nittanylionstorm07]

...with a 3.1 +/-....what was the +/- in the Ekos poll the other day?

And I tend to "trust" the A-political projections from these guys:

http://threehundredeight.blogspot.com/2011/04/tight-race-for-second-as-conservatives.html

Which if one takes as the gospel, shows the Tories right about where they were at the start of the election ~150.......also of note, it shows the NDP/Lib tie in Quebec, which they translate into ~36 seats for the NDP, meaning no seat change from prior to the writ dropping....

Did you read at all how his projections are produced? The seat change for the NDP are barely registering because it is built into his model that it waits for a decent trend before it really begins to move... that means the latest polls with the NDP above the Liberals pretty much have no effect on his model regardless of how good the poll is... he even says in a post that it wouldn't be until late next week (!) until the seat projection could be ironed out with this new dynamic if it remains consistent.

If this trend continues until May 2nd, his projection could be off by a week's estimate. That's a lot.

[Bryan]

Looks like the NDP got their act together. They are already calling this ad a lie and have all the citations to prove it.

http://www.ndp.ca/press/will-harper-withdraw-his-made-up-ads-2

Except that it is Jack who is lying. The CPC ad is iron clad fact.

[punked]

Except that it is Jack who is lying. The CPC ad is iron clad fact.

Except for the fact it is a lie. All the links to the original article the ad cites are on the website go read for yourself. Is reading to hard for you?

Edited April 22, 2011 by punked

[Guest Derek L]

Did you read at all how his projections are produced? The seat change for the NDP are barely registering because it is built into his model that it waits for a decent trend before it really begins to move... that means the latest polls with the NDP above the Liberals pretty much have no effect on his model regardless of how good the poll is... he even says in a post that it wouldn't be until late next week (!) until the seat projection could be ironed out with this new dynamic if it remains consistent.

If this trend continues until May 2nd, his projection could be off by a week's estimate. That's a lot.

No, never read that part. Do you have a link, I can't seem to find it?

I did read this part:

Unlike the old projection model, the new model makes projections for each individual riding. The projections are based on the popular vote projections that are made for each province and region. Those projections are based on an aggregate of all publically available polling data, weighted by the age of the poll, the size of the sample, and the track record of each pollster. Past election results and corrections for past error rates are also taken into account

http://threehundredeight.blogspot.com/2011/03/methodology-of-projection-model-and.html

I'll take your word for it, but if he is saying his model is buggered and he does'nt know the results, should one be so worried to rush out and purchase a two piece, olive drab suit and matching Mao cap to be prepaired for the "orange storm"

[punked]

No, never read that part. Do you have a link, I can't seem to find it?

I did read this part:

http://threehundredeight.blogspot.com/2011/03/methodology-of-projection-model-and.html

I'll take your word for it, but if he is saying his model is buggered and he does'nt know the results, should one be so worried to rush out and purchase a two piece, olive drab suit and matching Mao cap to be prepaired for the "orange storm"

The model is made so it doesn't swing wildly which is fine outside of an election but inside it is a drag on the model. I think it wasn't until the last three days or so of the NB election it started to show the Conservatives pull ahead of the Liberals. It also was way off on predicting that election.

[nittanylionstorm07]

No, never read that part. Do you have a link, I can't seem to find it?

I did read this part:

http://threehundredeight.blogspot.com/2011/03/methodology-of-projection-model-and.html

I'll take your word for it, but if he is saying his model is buggered and he does'nt know the results, should one be so worried to rush out and purchase a two piece, olive drab suit and matching Mao cap to be prepaired for the "orange storm"

http://threehundredeight.blogspot.com/2011/04/drip-drip-drip-conservatives-and-ndp.html

There might be quite a few of you impatient with how slowly this projection moves, but I have to point out that the stellar NDP growth in Quebec and in Canada as a whole is quite new - just days old, even - and the projection model will take some time to buy that this is really what is going on and that it is something that will stick. But I assure you that if the NDP and Liberals are still tied at the national level on May 1, they will also be in the model. In fact, if this current rate of increase and decrease continues at the same pace, the New Democrats will pass the Liberals in national support late next week.

[Guest Derek L]

http://threehundredeight.blogspot.com/2011/04/drip-drip-drip-conservatives-and-ndp.html

Thanks for that. Below the above quoted paragraph:

But if things reverse themselves - and to paraphrase Paul Wells, in Canadian politics the least interesting thing to happen is the most likely - the model's caution will be well-rewarded. And if they don't, there is still enough time for it to be reflected in the final projection.

I read that as anything could happen.... further below that:

There are 15 seats in the projection where the NDP is within 10 points of the leader. Two of those seats are held by the Bloc Québécois, five by the Liberals, and eight by the Conservatives. So the NDP could be a bit of an equal opportunity spoiler. But in a lot of close Conservative-Liberal seats, the NDP's increase in support could turn more than a few ridings over to Stephen Harper.

I guess we'll all have to wait and see.

[nittanylionstorm07]

Thanks for that. Below the above quoted paragraph:

I read that as anything could happen.... further below that:

I guess we'll all have to wait and see.

So far there is no sign of that happening, though, and if anything, the NDP surge just keeps getting stronger.

[punked]

Thanks for that. Below the above quoted paragraph:

I read that as anything could happen.... further below that:

I guess we'll all have to wait and see.

That is talking in Ontario as the Cons grab some Liberal ridings there the NDP will be taking Con Ridings in BC, Albert, Manitoba and Sask. It will also be taking them in NS to it will all even out the smoke will clear and we will have a minority Parliament again but the NDP will have a while lot more seats. That is the trade off.

[Guest Derek L]

That is talking in Ontario as the Cons grab some Liberal ridings there the NDP will be taking Con Ridings in BC, Albert, Manitoba and Sask. It will also be taking them in NS to it will all even out the smoke will clear and we will have a minority Parliament again but the NDP will have a while lot more seats. That is the trade off.

I don't know about Alberta-east. I grew up and lived in the 90s in the Juan de Fuca riding, and well in school (same semsmester) did volunteer work with both my local MLA (NDP-Ric Kasper) and MP (Reform-Dr Keith Martin) so I'll grant you anything could happen.

With that said, (now living in greater Vancouver) I just see the NDP picking off a few Liberal seats in Metro Vancouver(Kingsway & South Vancouver) and if they can contain any potential vote split with the Libs, maybe a few more(Burnaby Douglas). The only thing the Tories have going for them really in Metro Vancouver is Big Buisness/rich (North Vancouver & West Vancouver) and their appeal to religious, new Canadians. (The Surrey ridings, Richmond and Burnaby Douglas)

Once you get into the Fraser valley and beyond, I just don't see that big of a shift...

Well gtg and alter the NDP's prospects in the New West-Coquitlam riding