Federal Election Polls

[nittanylionstorm07]

I've a lifetime of experience with FPTP, its very much a possibility', it's the reason pundits are very guarded about projecting seat counts...it's not how many votes that matter but where the votes are located...conservative support can rise in the alberta raiseing their national vote count but it matter zero because they already have all but one seat...the NDP could have 90% of the vote in quebec but it's not all that helpul if they're all in montreal...

Therein lies the base of your misunderstanding. I know you are exaggerating the numbers, but Montreal does not even have 90% of Quebec's population.

Let's say the NDP wins 40% of the vote in Quebec like it looks like, a solid first place finish. Riding polls in Quebec City have already come out with many ridings having the NDP in first or tied with the Bloc. That's amazing, and it shows that the 40% number would have massive results across the province in favor of the NDP. You are looking at the NDP winning around 75% of the seats in Quebec.

[Dave_ON]

If the NDP surpass the Liberals and become the official opposition in a Tory minority, they might not need to support the Throne Speech and/or budget (which will play well with their base). I think the optics of the NDP greatly surpassing the Grits, might force the Liberals into survival mode and the fear of being stuck in third/fourth place (or made irrelevant) might force them to allow the Tories to govern well they rebuild. Same with the Bloc. Siding with a stronger NDP (for the Bloc and Liberals) only gives them legitimacy.

Now if the Liberals have a slight lead over the NDP, and combined could topple the Tories without the Bloc, anything could happen.

If the past is any indicator I sincerely doubt Mr. Harper will have suddenly found a new spirit of cooperation. The LPC's best chance at continued survival at this point would be to side with an NDP minority, over a CPC one. This would give them time to begin the rebuilding process. They have much soul searching to do and are in desparate need of renewal. This election is precisely the kick in the ass the LPC needed. Perhaps they'll get some new blood, new ideas and really turn the party around. Many have counted the Liberals out at this point, and perhaps they will eventually go the route of the PC's, however, I don't think we've seen the last of the LPC's, but I do think we've seen the last of the "natural governing partÿ" of Canada. I do enjoy this new dynamic the NDP surge has created, it's been one of the most exciting elections in quite some time.

[ToadBrother]

If the past is any indicator I sincerely doubt Mr. Harper will have suddenly found a new spirit of cooperation. The LPC's best chance at continued survival at this point would be to side with an NDP minority, over a CPC one. This would give them time to begin the rebuilding process. They have much soul searching to do and are in desparate need of renewal. This election is precisely the kick in the ass the LPC needed. Perhaps they'll get some new blood, new ideas and really turn the party around. Many have counted the Liberals out at this point, and perhaps they will eventually go the route of the PC's, however, I don't think we've seen the last of the LPC's, but I do think we've seen the last of the "natural governing partÿ" of Canada. I do enjoy this new dynamic the NDP surge has created, it's been one of the most exciting elections in quite some time.

I'm not sure that an alliance with the NDP is the best solution. The Liberals may look at what is happening to the third-pace finishers in the UK, the Liberal Democrats, who have bled support to Labour, and with some thinking that the more centrist members may end up just walking over to the Tories.

I think that an alliance with the Tories might make more sense, in that the Tories will have a vested interest in maintaining a familiar opponent in the hopes that it can regain their old position. I know a lot of Tory supporters think having clear right-of-centre and left-of-centre alternatives is a good thing, but strategically, allowing a known rival fall away to be replaced by a party that up until a couple of weeks ago nobody ever considered as a potential governing party may have a whole raft of unintended consequences. As the old saying goes, better the devil you know than the devil you don't.

Mind you, the same risk may ultimately be posed to the Liberals by an alliance with the Tories. It's possible that the more left-of-centre factions in the party may find co-operation with the Tories so unpalatable that they'll just pick up and join the NDP anyways.

As much as the Liberals may be the belle at the ball on May 3rd, for them, at least, the choices they make are going to have huge implications for their future. Do they find some accommodation with the Tories or NDP? Is there any particular medium term or long term advantage to any such accommodation? Would it be wiser to simply remain completely independent and support whoever comes out of May 2nd with the plurality on a vote by vote basis?

To be honest, if I were a Liberal strategist right now, I'd be recommending to whomever ends up leading the party (there's another huge question as it's hard to see how Iggy will survive this, but there won't be time prior to Parliament sitting again to choose another leader properly) that they make no alliance at all. Retain independence, capitulate on the votes if you need to and use the time to properly pick a leader, rebuild the party and get out to all the ridings that shifted to the NDP and do what you can to try to make sure this newfound NDP support doesn't gain any traction. There may not be a lot of time, maybe another year or two, to do it, and if the Liberals can't pull it off in that timeframe and the NDP manage to hold on to a good chunk of those seats, the Liberals are done for.

[Guest Derek L]

If the past is any indicator I sincerely doubt Mr. Harper will have suddenly found a new spirit of cooperation. The LPC's best chance at continued survival at this point would be to side with an NDP minority, over a CPC one. This would give them time to begin the rebuilding process. They have much soul searching to do and are in desparate need of renewal. This election is precisely the kick in the ass the LPC needed. Perhaps they'll get some new blood, new ideas and really turn the party around. Many have counted the Liberals out at this point, and perhaps they will eventually go the route of the PC's, however, I don't think we've seen the last of the LPC's, but I do think we've seen the last of the "natural governing partÿ" of Canada. I do enjoy this new dynamic the NDP surge has created, it's been one of the most exciting elections in quite some time.

I doubt Harper will soften either, as a Tory myself I wouldn’t want to compromise my valves. I do find it hard though, to see the Liberals, if behind the NDP in seats, to play kingmaker for Jack Layton just to spite Harper.

If they did, in future elections, how would the Liberals ever campaign against the NDP? If things go sour with a NDP government, how would the Liberals separate themselves from it, when they allowed it to happen? If things go good with a NDP lead government, how do the Liberals spin this against Layton in future campaigns. It quickly makes the Liberal party irrelevant. (Not that I think that’s a bad thing!)

I just think the junior partner in a coalition government will end up with the short end of the stick during the next election cycle.

Who knows, the Liberal party could completely implode, and we could see John Manley Liberals defecting to the Tories, and the Bob Rae Liberals going to the NDP.

[Guest Derek L]

To be honest, if I were a Liberal strategist right now, I'd be recommending to whomever ends up leading the party (there's another huge question as it's hard to see how Iggy will survive this, but there won't be time prior to Parliament sitting again to choose another leader properly) that they make no alliance at all. Retain independence, capitulate on the votes if you need to and use the time to properly pick a leader, rebuild the party and get out to all the ridings that shifted to the NDP and do what you can to try to make sure this newfound NDP support doesn't gain any traction. There may not be a lot of time, maybe another year or two, to do it, and if the Liberals can't pull it off in that timeframe and the NDP manage to hold on to a good chunk of those seats, the Liberals are done for.

I agree, as a Liberal strategist, I'd also arrange to have a number of my MPs away on "family emergencies" when it came to confidence votes, so the rump could still vote against government.

[ToadBrother]

I agree, as a Liberal strategist, I'd also arrange to have a number of my MPs away on "family emergencies" when it came to confidence votes, so the rump could still vote against government.

Absolutely, support the government by absenteeism. The Liberals should be used to that by now, that's how it has worked for much of the last Parliament.

[wyly]

Therein lies the base of your misunderstanding. I know you are exaggerating the numbers, but Montreal does not even have 90% of Quebec's population.

Let's say the NDP wins 40% of the vote in Quebec like it looks like, a solid first place finish. Riding polls in Quebec City have already come out with many ridings having the NDP in first or tied with the Bloc. That's amazing, and it shows that the 40% number would have massive results across the province in favor of the NDP. You are looking at the NDP winning around 75% of the seats in Quebec.

yes I was exaggerating to make a point, but I stand by my point and electoral history...it's not a given having 40% of the vote overall translates into a high seat count...the location of the vote and how they're distributed is crucial...I'm not claiming what you are projecting can not happen but there is no assurance that it will either...

[TTM]

I doubt Harper will soften either, as a Tory myself I wouldn’t want to compromise my valves. I do find it hard though, to see the Liberals, if behind the NDP in seats, to play kingmaker for Jack Layton just to spite Harper.

If they did, in future elections, how would the Liberals ever campaign against the NDP? If things go sour with a NDP government, how would the Liberals separate themselves from it, when they allowed it to happen? If things go good with a NDP lead government, how do the Liberals spin this against Layton in future campaigns. It quickly makes the Liberal party irrelevant. (Not that I think that’s a bad thing!)

I just think the junior partner in a coalition government will end up with the short end of the stick during the next election cycle.

Who knows, the Liberal party could completely implode, and we could see John Manley Liberals defecting to the Tories, and the Bob Rae Liberals going to the NDP.

Yes, over the long term I see parallels with what happened to the Liberal party in Saskatchewan. Barring catastrophe, I don't see Quebec abandoning the NDP any time soon, and unless Wild Rose goes federal, I don't see much chance of vote splitting to the right of the Conservatives. This leaves a real danger of them getting squeezed out. I think the best option for the Liberals is to move right (more "Paul Martin Liberals"). There is strong support out there for a fiscally conservative, socially liberal party.

[wyly]

I'm not sure that an alliance with the NDP is the best solution. The Liberals may look at what is happening to the third-pace finishers in the UK, the Liberal Democrats, who have bled support to Labour, and with some thinking that the more centrist members may end up just walking over to the Tories.

the NDP has supported past liberal governments on a vote by vote basis if they appear to be deliberately to be hindering the ndp it could backfire...the ndp has to it's credit tried to work with every government including harpers, that's how a minority situation should work...

[wyly]

Yes, over the long term I see parallels with what happened to the Liberal party in Saskatchewan. Barring catastrophe, I don't see Quebec abandoning the NDP any time soon, and unless Wild Rose goes federal, I don't see much chance of vote splitting to the right of the Conservatives. This leaves a real danger of them getting squeezed out. I think the best option for the Liberals is to move right (more "Paul Martin Liberals"). There is strong support out there for a fiscally conservative, socially liberal party.

I've absolutely nothing about the wildrose going federal it's not been discussed...liberals trying to move right into conservative territory possible but it'll be tough and the NDP would gain even more strength IMO...

[kcameron]

If NDP wins more seats than liberals and cons have the most seats, it would be a strategic mistake for the liberals to prop up Harper government. In this scenario NDP would be the official and only opposition to Harper government. It would essentially become NDP vs Con, Left vs Right. Liberals would become irrelevant as a national party. Currently their support is limited to Ontario and I would think they would lose supporters who will see no difference between Liberals/Cons. NDP could easily make the case in Liberal strongholds that essentially voting for Liberals is not much different from Cons.

The best scenario in this bad spot for them is for the NDP to win 100+ seats. In this scenario they can support but not officially join in coalition with the NDP. Let them rule for 4 years or so and than once the NDP shoot themselves in the foot in governing, take the centrist position . Contrast NDP/Con rule and remind the public the good days of liberal government.

[ToadBrother]

the NDP has supported past liberal governments on a vote by vote basis if they appear to be deliberately to be hindering the ndp it could backfire...the ndp has to it's credit tried to work with every government including harpers, that's how a minority situation should work...

The shoe may very well be on the other foot now. What a third-place party does if they are somehow suddenly propelled into first or second place cannot likely be accurately be predicted by previous behavior.

[jbg]

To be honest, if I were a Liberal strategist right now, I'd be recommending to whomever ends up leading the party (there's another huge question as it's hard to see how Iggy will survive this, but there won't be time prior to Parliament sitting again to choose another leader properly) that they make no alliance at all. Retain independence, capitulate on the votes if you need to and use the time to properly pick a leader, rebuild the party and get out to all the ridings that shifted to the NDP and do what you can to try to make sure this newfound NDP support doesn't gain any traction. There may not be a lot of time, maybe another year or two, to do it, and if the Liberals can't pull it off in that timeframe and the NDP manage to hold on to a good chunk of those seats, the Liberals are done for.

Not a bad suggestion probably. If the government is to be minority, and the order of ridings is CPC 1st, NDP 2nd, LPC 3rd, building a "coalition of losers" would be a serious breach of tradition and a great mistake. I even question whether the GG should sanction such a coalition.

I still think a CPC majority is the most likely outcome though, since I think many voters will have "think twice" moments when voting. The more committed voters will already have voted, and I can't believe that the "new", probably media-driven NDP craze is hard support.

Edited April 29, 2011 by jbg

[TTM]

I've absolutely nothing about the wildrose going federal it's not been discussed...liberals trying to move right into conservative territory possible but it'll be tough and the NDP would gain even more strength IMO...

No, the Wild Rose (Wildrose?) party has no intentions of going federal. What I was trying to get at is that baring a breakup of the not necessarily comfortable coalition of social conservatives and fiscal conservatives on the right, it appears that the Liberals in the future are going to be faced with a credible and unified national option on the right, and a credible and unified national option on the left. They are already bleeding the leftist portion of their support to the NDP, and given that the NDP will now be seen as a credible alternative (and they were not very successful against them when the NDP was not seen as credible), it is not a good strategy to head left. The NDP are more monolithic than the Conservatives, so the best bet for the Liberals is to attempt to woo the fiscal conservatives, while at the same time appealing to their socially liberal and centrist base.

Edited April 29, 2011 by TTM

[ToadBrother]

I still think a CPC majority is the most likely outcome though, since I think many voters will have "think twice" moments when voting. The more committed voters will already have voted, and I can't believe that the "new", probably media-driven NDP craze is hard support.

Totally disagree. The CPC cannot hit a majority in the mid-30s, even with vote splitting.

[jbg]

Totally disagree. The CPC cannot hit a majority in the mid-30s, even with vote splitting.

I also don't believe the mid-30's numbers, especially if you apply any reasonable portion of the "undecided" vote to the CPC.

[TTM]

I also don't believe the mid-30's numbers, especially if you apply any reasonable portion of the "undecided" vote to the CPC.

Yes, I think a Conservative majority, or at the least a strong minority, is still very much in play. I will not be comfortable until I see the Conservatives in the low thirties.

[ToadBrother]

I also don't believe the mid-30's numbers, especially if you apply any reasonable portion of the "undecided" vote to the CPC.

I think you're going to find, whether you like it or not, that the Tories will not climb up to 37% or above. Even in the high-30s a majority would be a hard thing to accomplish.

There will not be a Tory majority. There will be another minority, and the larger scale effect will be a flipping of Liberal and NDP support.

Frankly, I think trying to apply undecided to any party is little more than alchemy.

Edited April 29, 2011 by ToadBrother

[TTM]

I think you're going to find, whether you like it or not, that the Tories will not climb up to 37% or above. Even in the high-30s a majority would be a hard thing to accomplish.

There will not be a Tory majority. There will be another minority, and the larger scale effect will be a flipping of Liberal and NDP support.

Frankly, I think trying to apply undecided to any party is little more than alchemy.

Right, but we also have to consider the fact that party numbers often change by a couple of percent on election day. The Conservatives are very good at getting their vote out, especially when threatened, there were a large number of voters at advanced polls, when the Conservatives were doing better, and with the Liberal ship sinking, what will the Blue Grits do? I think a Conservative majority is unlikely, but still not outside the realm of possibility (and more likely than an NDP minority).

[ToadBrother]

Right, but we also have to consider the fact that party numbers often change by a couple of percent on election day. The Conservatives are very good at getting their vote out, especially when threatened, there were a large number of voters at advanced polls, when the Conservatives were doing better, and with the Liberal ship sinking, what will the Blue Grits do? I think a Conservative majority is unlikely, but still not outside the realm of possibility (and more likely than an NDP minority).

I don't think an NDP minority on May 3 is even a possibility. If it happens, it's through manoeuvring between May 3 and the Throne Speech. And let's remember that those percentage shifts don't necessarily work in the Tories' favor either.

[TTM]

I don't think an NDP minority on May 3 is even a possibility. If it happens, it's through manoeuvring between May 3 and the Throne Speech. And let's remember that those percentage shifts don't necessarily work in the Tories' favor either.

Agreed, but they are giving me indigestion

[Dave_ON]

Yes, over the long term I see parallels with what happened to the Liberal party in Saskatchewan. Barring catastrophe, I don't see Quebec abandoning the NDP any time soon, and unless Wild Rose goes federal, I don't see much chance of vote splitting to the right of the Conservatives. This leaves a real danger of them getting squeezed out. I think the best option for the Liberals is to move right (more "Paul Martin Liberals"). There is strong support out there for a fiscally conservative, socially liberal party.

I agree 100% and in all honesty this is what I believe is the Liberals only hope. Most Canadians don't want tax and spend and in all honesty the LPC has not been a tax and spend government for the better part of 2 decades. Chretien and Martin were very different from Trudeau. I've said it before, I could stomach a vote for the CPC if I felt they'd keep there nose out of my personal business and purge the more religious supporters from their ranks. Morality and religion should never play a factor in government.

[Dave_ON]

To be honest, if I were a Liberal strategist right now, I'd be recommending to whomever ends up leading the party (there's another huge question as it's hard to see how Iggy will survive this, but there won't be time prior to Parliament sitting again to choose another leader properly) that they make no alliance at all. Retain independence, capitulate on the votes if you need to and use the time to properly pick a leader, rebuild the party and get out to all the ridings that shifted to the NDP and do what you can to try to make sure this newfound NDP support doesn't gain any traction. There may not be a lot of time, maybe another year or two, to do it, and if the Liberals can't pull it off in that timeframe and the NDP manage to hold on to a good chunk of those seats, the Liberals are done for.

I agree with you on this, I suppose my question is what motivation will the CPC really have to play nice now though? Yes of course it makes perfect sense for them to do so, and yes it's the smart thing to do, but when has Mr. Harper ever let common sense and pragmatism get in the way of his plans? I would actually not be the least bit surprised if Mr. Harper allowed the throne speech to be defeated and the NDP form some type of government, given his track record this would be completely consistent with his normal behavior.

I agree, the NDP is a heretofore underestimated rival, and one the CPC has shown they are utterly unprepared to deal with. I see the things Harper is saying about the NDP, calling on a non existant track record of tax and spend as if they've already governed on the federal level. It's almost as if they're taking their LPC/Ignatieff attack adds and doing a find and replace with NDP/Layton.

I'm not certain the Liberals are down and out yet, but they will most likely be marginalized for the forseeable future. They may never be the LPC again but I would not be surprised to see some other party rise up out of the ashes of the LPC. There are too many people such as myself that do not fit particularly well in either the CPC or the NDP. I've always felt that we need that third alternative. a relatively fiscally conservative but socially liberal party. This is something for all their brokering the LPC were indeed masters at. I can hardly see the CPC or the NDP ever turning into a big tent party and that makes me a little sad.

[nittanylionstorm07]

I agree with you on this, I suppose my question is what motivation will the CPC really have to play nice now though? Yes of course it makes perfect sense for them to do so, and yes it's the smart thing to do, but when has Mr. Harper ever let common sense and pragmatism get in the way of his plans? I would actually not be the least bit surprised if Mr. Harper allowed the throne speech to be defeated and the NDP form some type of government, given his track record this would be completely consistent with his normal behavior.

I agree, the NDP is a heretofore underestimated rival, and one the CPC has shown they are utterly unprepared to deal with. I see the things Harper is saying about the NDP, calling on a non existant track record of tax and spend as if they've already governed on the federal level. It's almost as if they're taking their LPC/Ignatieff attack adds and doing a find and replace with NDP/Layton.

I'm not certain the Liberals are down and out yet, but they will most likely be marginalized for the forseeable future. They may never be the LPC again but I would not be surprised to see some other party rise up out of the ashes of the LPC. There are too many people such as myself that do not fit particularly well in either the CPC or the NDP. I've always felt that we need that third alternative. a relatively fiscally conservative but socially liberal party. This is something for all their brokering the LPC were indeed masters at. I can hardly see the CPC or the NDP ever turning into a big tent party and that makes me a little sad.

I'm starting to wonder if, after the election, the LPC splits into left/right camps with the left going into coalition into the NDP (eventually merging with them), and the right going into coalition with the CPC...which would eventually lead to fracturing within the CPC between more centre politicans and more right-wing politicians, and a return of a PC-like party on the federal level with the ex Liberals and centre-right Cons, and the rest of the CPC being more like old Reform or SoCred.

[ToadBrother]

I'm starting to wonder if, after the election, the LPC splits into left/right camps with the left going into coalition into the NDP (eventually merging with them), and the right going into coalition with the CPC...which would eventually lead to fracturing within the CPC between more centre politicans and more right-wing politicians, and a return of a PC-like party on the federal level with the ex Liberals and centre-right Cons, and the rest of the CPC being more like old Reform or SoCred.

The Right is not going to fracture again. They've seen that that road leads to futility. They'll absorb any centrist Liberals and be the stronger for it.