Federal Election Polls

[Harry]

The CROP regionals are out - some very interesting polling results for Quebec City & Montreal areas - page 26

http://www.crop.ca/sondages/pdf/2011/117250evolutionpolitiquecropavril2011.pdf

[jbg]

BQ is in the toilet (in my mind the preferred habitat of traitors)

A hangman's noose will do.

CPC majority in the offing.

Your lips to G-d's ears.

[Harry]

Fascinating.

Jack owes a big thank you to Bob Rae.

Hébert: Why Quebec is loving Jack, leaving Gilles

http://www.thestar.com/article/979022--hebert-why-quebec-is-loving-jack-leaving-gilles

Edited April 23, 2011 by Harry

[punked]

Fascinating.

Jack owes a big thank you to Bob Rae.

Hébert: Why Quebec is loving Jack, leaving Gilles

http://www.thestar.com/article/979022--hebert-why-quebec-is-loving-jack-leaving-gilles

I said this the night of the debate when Iggy started thumping his chest about the war. I said "There goes Quebec".

[Harry]

CROP Regionals (sample size= 867)

Montreal (437) NDP 40 BQ 28 PLC 17 CPC 12

Quebec (166) BQ 31 CPC 31 NDP 28 PLC 11

ROQ (264) BQ 35 NDP 34 CPC 19 PLC 10

Francophone (754) BQ 38 NDP 34 CPC 15 LPC 11

Non-Francophone (113) NDP 45 CPC 26 PLC 20 BQ 4

Edited April 23, 2011 by Harry

[wyly]

CROP Regionals (sample size= 867)

Montreal (437) NDP 40 BQ 28 PLC 17 CPC 12

Quebec (166) BQ 31 CPC 31 NDP 28 PLC 11

ROQ (264) BQ 35 NDP 34 CPC 19 PLC 10

Francophone (754) BQ 38 NDP 34 CPC 15 LPC 11

Non-Francophone (113) NDP 45 CPC 26 PLC 20 BQ 4

40% in montreal must be nearing a threshold/tipping point where the NDP could sweep the entire city...another 12 days of campaigning and they could take the CPC seats in quebec city...as well as contest a number of seats held by the bloc in the ROQ.... Edited April 23, 2011 by wyly

[Harry]

40% in montreal must be nearing a threshold/tipping point where the NDP could sweep the entire city...another 2 days of campaigning and they could take the CPC seat in quebec city...as well as contest a number of seats held by the bloc in the ROQ....

Precisely - it's a brand new ball game. Let's see what happens Saturday as Layton is in Montreal for a rally.

Edited April 23, 2011 by Harry

[Harry]

Only the shadow knows.

What the NDP surge means

In Ontario, for example, many non-Conservatives vote Liberal only because they believe the NDP can’t win government. When Layton says, as he did Thursday, that the NDP’s increased popularity in Quebec could affect its standing in Ontario, he is right.

The pollster Ekos calculates that the NDP is the second choice of most Liberal voters across the country. It also says that when first- and second-place preferences are combined, the New Democrats outscore all other parties.

In simple terms, this means that if the Liberals totally collapse, Layton — like then New Democrat Bob Rae in Ontario 21 years ago — could theoretically win government.

--------------

Still, there’s something going on here. Ekos calculates that if an election were held now, the Liberals and New Democrats combined — even without Bloc support — would have more seats than first-place finisher Harper.

That would dramatically change the political calculations around any possible, post-election, anti-Conservative coalition. It would also raise the possibility — still slim — that in such a coalition, Layton might not be the junior partner.

http://www.thestar.com/article/979097--walkom-what-the-ndp-surge-means

Edited April 23, 2011 by Harry

[bloodyminded]

This election is absolute madness. Who would have ever predicted the NDP would be surging like this? Threatening the BQ in Quebec, threatening the Liberals everywhere, potential threat in many Western ridings. A week ago people were talking about Jack's health, now everyone is all but put a bloody Superman costume on him.

I would never have believed an NDP official opposition was a possibility, but now, if these trends continue over the next week, it's a very real possibility.

Me neither. Further, I would have openly scoffed at the very notion. Further, I believe I did.

It's been the only campaign surprise this time around, but no matter how it plays out, it's a big one anyway.

[bloodyminded]

I suppose the underpinning question is whether there's still volatility within the electorate, even with those who have to date voiced a preference to the pollsters.

I don't think there's any question about it.

[wyly]

I don't think there's any question about it.

yup...should the ndp surge grow a number of liberal voters in split ridings may see the ndp as the best chance to stop the cpc froma attaining a majority, and no doubt there may be voters who back the cpc only because they had no option other than the liberals but now they do...we'll see how this plays out but this orange surge could become a tidal wave... Edited April 23, 2011 by wyly

[Mr.Canada]

The Liberals are a MTV party. Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver they have almost zero support any where but these urban ridings. They have three seats west of London Ontario outside of urban areas. Once these urban area support erodes to the NDP they'll be a dead party.

[Smallc]

The Liberals are a MTV party. Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver

Well, at least I know you watched Byline last night.

[Mr.Canada]

Well, at least I know you watched Byline last night.

Lol. That's where I got it from, it's an accurate analogy. Good to see you're watching SNN.

[Harry]

The NPD surge continues.

Brome-Missisquoi : la vague NPD s'étend

(Cowansville) «La surprenante vague du NPD qui a déferlé sur le Québec cette semaine se manifeste également dans Brome-Missisquoi, au point de rendre l'issue du vote dans cette circonscription totalement imprévisible», soutient le président de la firme Segma, Raynald Harvey, à la suite d'un sondage réalisé cette semaine dans ce comté.

Avec 32% des intentions de vote exprimées dans le sondage réalisé pour le compte de La Voix de l'Est, le Bloc a 6 points d'avance sur le Nouveau Parti démocratique (NPD) et le Parti libéral, qui figurent ex aequo en deuxième place avec 26% des intentions de vote (résultats après répartition des 18% d'indécis). Mais le NPD, dont les appuis augmentaient de jour en jour au cours du sondage, pourrait bien avoir pris les devants aujourd'hui, selon le sondeur.

«Le fait saillant de ce sondage est que le candidat NPD (Pierre Jacob) a vu ses appuis passer de 19% la première journée (le lundi 18 avril) à 33% lors de la quatrième journée du sondage (le jeudi 21 avril), ce qui le plaçait tout juste devant la bloquiste Christelle Bogosta pour cette seule journée. Pendant la même période, la bloquiste a vu ses appuis fondre de 19%!», souligne le sondeur Raynald Harvey dans son rapport. «C'est presque incroyable, ajoute ce dernier en entrevue téléphonique. Ça peut jouer de jour en jour, mais comme ça, c'est exceptionnel!»

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/la-voix-de-lest/actualites/201104/22/01-4392760-brome-missisquoi-la-vague-npd-setend.php

[cybercoma]

Exciting news, but a lot of ifs in there.

[Mr.Canada]

Exciting news, but a lot of ifs in there.

I am praying to God that He allows for the NDP to become the Off. Opp. Layton would do a much better job then Ignatieff holding harpers feet to the fire. Plus Layton is just a better politician then Ignatieff is, people respect him more from all parties.

[TimG]

I am praying to God that He allows for the NDP to become the Off. Opp. Layton would do a much better job then Ignatieff holding harpers feet to the fire. Plus Layton is just a better politician then Ignatieff is, people respect him more from all parties.

Of course you realize that if current trends continue NDP will be the larger partner in a coalition government with the Liberals? People keep talking about the NDP rise as a no risk option because they can't be govenment. I would not be so sure.

[ToadBrother]

Of course you realize that if current trends continue NDP will be the larger partner in a coalition government with the Liberals? People keep talking about the NDP rise as a no risk option because they can't be govenment. I would not be so sure.

You're right. The implications of a sustained and snowballing surge in NDP support creates new possibilities. It's possible if NDP numbers rise enough that we could see the potential of a NDP-Liberal coalition with Layton at the helm.

I remember a year ago, a fellow I know who is a pretty hardcore Tory telling me that he thought the best thing that could happen to this country would be for the Liberal party to evaporate, with the more right-wing elements of the party going to the Tories and the more left-wing elements going to the NDP. I scoffed at the idea at the time, thinking, I'm sure, like a lot of people that Fortress Liberal was unassailable. Sure they could be down for the count, but at the end of the day this was the frickin' Liberal Party of Canada, the party that had held fast through of Confederation's history even as the Tories and outliers like the Progressives orbited each other trying to figure out how to make the pieces fit together.

But now, I'm not so sure. If people do abandon the Liberals en masse for the party they feel better represents their left-of-centre sentiments, the Liberals might have an impossibly steep hill to climb to get those people back. This wouldn't be like the Tory-Reform split in the early 1990s, Reform literally was the conservative wing of the PCs walking out the door, but everyone knew, I think, even back then that there would be some sort of reunion. Obviously the Reformers felt it would be on their terms, and the PCs wanted to play hard-to-get, but like the Conservative-Progressive unions of earlier times, mergers were inevitable. But the Liberals are a different kind of party, and I'm not so sure the same rules apply.

[Mr.Canada]

Of course you realize that if current trends continue NDP will be the larger partner in a coalition government with the Liberals? People keep talking about the NDP rise as a no risk option because they can't be govenment. I would not be so sure.

I want the utter destruction of the Liberal Party in whatever form that takes.

[wyly]

But now, I'm not so sure. If people do abandon the Liberals en masse for the party they feel better represents their left-of-centre sentiments, the Liberals might have an impossibly steep hill to climb to get those people back. This wouldn't be like the Tory-Reform split in the early 1990s, Reform literally was the conservative wing of the PCs walking out the door, but everyone knew, I think, even back then that there would be some sort of reunion. Obviously the Reformers felt it would be on their terms, and the PCs wanted to play hard-to-get, but like the Conservative-Progressive unions of earlier times, mergers were inevitable. But the Liberals are a different kind of party, and I'm not so sure the same rules apply.

since the liberals have to move from centrist position into NDP agendas they lost any identity that made them different from the NDP...so the voter looks at the two of them and sees the NDP with no bad track record or the liberals with lots of previous baggage...the liberal leftward shift made the NDP a viable option...

[ToadBrother]

since the liberals have to move from centrist position into NDP agendas they lost any identity that made them different from the NDP...so the voter looks at the two of them and sees the NDP with no bad track record or the liberals with lots of previous baggage...the liberal leftward shift made the NDP a viable option...

It's strange, isn't it, considering that Iggy really is in most respects a natural conservative. I'd say he's more to the right than, say, Joe Clark. But the Tories have managed to sit atop the political centre, and he didn't have the ambition or wisdom to try to push them off of that.

Frankly, I think the NDP's time has come. If not a government (I still won't believe that until I see it), then Official Opposition. With the resources and prestige that brings, this could very well be the moment in history when the NDP began their road to government.

[TimG]

I'd say he's more to the right than, say, Joe Clark. But the Tories have managed to sit atop the political centre, and he didn't have the ambition or wisdom to try to push them off of that.

I don't think there is much he could have done with the left wing of his party demanding NDP like policies and a media peanut gallary insisting that the Liberals must differentiate themselves from the Tories. His only real hope was to generate a following of him as a leader - something that Jack has done. Edited April 23, 2011 by TimG

[Smallc]

Lol. That's where I got it from, it's an accurate analogy. Good to see you're watching SNN.

There was nothing else on. I didn't stay long though. I was just waiting for CTV National News to start.

[Tilter]

I am praying to God that He allows for the NDP to become the Off. Opp. Layton would do a much better job then Ignatieff holding harpers feet to the fire. Plus Layton is just a better politician then Ignatieff is, people respect him more from all parties.

Praying always works--- like praying that your dog will come back to life after being run over by a gravel truck. Or that you get 100% on a test you never studied for .

Get a life