Federal Election Polls

angrypenguin · October 3, 2015

The NDP are definitely behind and it's unlikely they'll pull back ahead. However, the last orange surge happened 14 days before the election. I guess we'll see what happens after the debate tonight. Mulcair was stronger in this debate than any of the others, imo. Though, I'm not really sure these debates are having any appreciable effect on the standings. It seems other external news has a much greater effect.

Yes, I did watch the debate end to end. Every leader had their pros and cons. This last debate for me was the hardest to figure out who won. Your thoughts?

angrypenguin · October 3, 2015

The latest EKOS results contain info 3 days old, Nanos has numbers collected up until Oct. 1st. Here is what the freshest sounding says about the BC regional race:

Liberal - 34.1

NDP - 30.5

Cons - 26.9

CPC will likely win this election but it will have more to do with the Quebec shake-up than with the BC region.

EKOS puts for BC the Conservatives at #1

cybercoma · October 3, 2015

Yes, I did watch the debate end to end. Every leader had their pros and cons. This last debate for me was the hardest to figure out who won. Your thoughts?

I don't even have a guess. I thought Trudeau looked like an idiot in the first debate, but then people loved it. Harper has been consistent, but tonight he didn't seem like himself. He was more nervous and shaky than he has been in the past. However, I don't think he likes doing business en français. So that might explain his uncomfortable body language. I thought this was Mulcair's strongest debate by far. However, Trudeau also did well and thankfully wasn't talking over other people as much (or maybe it was harder to notice through translation). Duceppe, I don't much care about. Who won? As far as I can tell Mulcair probably had the strongest night. He was solid on the niqab issue, particularly when he said emphatically, "I don't like the niqab." Is it enough to stop the bleeding in Québec? I'm pessimistic.

Edited October 3, 2015 by cybercoma

angrypenguin · October 3, 2015

I don't even have a guess. I thought Trudeau looked like an idiot in the first debate, but then people loved it. Harper has been consistent, but tonight he didn't seem like himself. He was more nervous and shaky than he has been in the past. However, I don't think he likes doing business en français. So that might explain his uncomfortable body language. I thought this was Mulcair's strongest debate by far. However, Trudeau also did well and thankfully wasn't talking over other people as much (or maybe it was harder to notice through translation). Duceppe, I don't much care about. Who won? As far as I can tell Mulcair probably had the strongest night. He was solid on the niqab issue, particularly when he said emphatically, "I don't like the niqab." Is it enough to stop the bleeding in Québec? I'm pessimistic.

Interesting. Before I answer, I will have to offer full and fair disclosure. I'm an instructor by trade. I travel a lot (225 nights a year) and my job is, essentially to teach, but I watch these French debates because I don't understand French, so to me, I pick up on body movements in a way that I think most people miss. So my view is, different in this regard (so just putting it out there before I share).

1) Harper's movements tonight were similar, if not eerily similar to the other French debate. You can tell he's an introvert, he's not comfortable up there, but you would never be able to tell. His level of nervousness, was IMO, the same as in other debates.

2) Trudeau was put in his place in debate #3, and debate #4. Mulcair was good at keeping him at bay. Tonight, he smiled more (Trudeau) and didn't seem as much of a "cool boy" as debate #3 (note his posture differences). He was more prime ministerial, but he still cut people off.

3) Mulcair was more angry Tom than debate #2. He should have, IMHO, focused more of his attacks on Trudeau, but he took digs at Harper and Trudeau similarly.

4) Re: talking over each other. I think that happened quite a bit. More than a few times the translators mentioned that they couldn't translate because leaders were talking over each other.

Re: presenter styles.

1) Look at Harper's hands when he speaks, and look at his head motions. He's speaking "out of experience and out of principle" - it's different than Wynne's approach - palm down (teacher like - demeaning...etc). Harper is by far (unsurprisingly) hands down the most seasoned presenter. He uses words like "look" and "let me be clear here" - it's a very solid style.

2) Tom - Tom likes to point fingers (so does Trudeau), but Tom is either angry, or PMish. He switches between the two.

3) Trudeau can't figure out his identity either. He's either in your face, or he goes "oh F this", and he swipes his hand. He's either too cool or too aggressive.

Anyways, that's my take on it. As far as Duceppe, he's just mad all the time

To me, Harper's presenting style is bang on. Probably why he ranks the highest in the polls of "most PM like"

Derek 2.0 · October 3, 2015

The latest EKOS results contain info 3 days old, Nanos has numbers collected up until Oct. 1st. Here is what the freshest sounding says about the BC regional race:

Liberal - 34.1

NDP - 30.5

Cons - 26.9

CPC will likely win this election but it will have more to do with the Quebec shake-up than with the BC region.

Is there any other polls supporting the Nanos numbers that the Liberals are now in front in BC? I stand to be corrected, but in the last 50 years, the Liberals have only placed 1st in BC once (1968 PET) and only a couple of times even second.....The Federal NDP and Tories would have to be destroyed in the Province to equal a result as Nanos is suggesting.

waldo · October 3, 2015

Is there any other polls supporting the Nanos numbers that the Liberals are now in front in BC? I stand to be corrected, but in the last 50 years, the Liberals have only placed 1st in BC once (1968 PET) and only a couple of times even second.....The Federal NDP and Tories would have to be destroyed in the Province to equal a result as Nanos is suggesting.

Leger Sept 30th poll:

.

Derek 2.0 · October 3, 2015

Leger Sept 30th poll:

.

Crazy if true.........

CITIZEN_2015 · October 3, 2015

Liberals taking off

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/election/nanos-polls

NANOS TRACKING RELEASED OCT. 3, 2015, 6 AM

National Ballot - In the latest Nanos tracking completed Friday evening the Liberals had 34.6% support followed by the Conservatives at 30.5%, the NDP at 25.1%, and the Greens at 4.8% nationally.
Battleground Ontario - There has been a noticeable movement in one of the key battlegrounds in favour of the Liberals over the past two evenings of tracking. Support for the Liberals in battleground Ontario stands at 43.6% while the Conservatives are at 33.8%, the NDP at 18.6% and the Greens at 4.0%

It appears conservatives' build and grow on hate and division (niqab) campaign is backfiring........

Nanos poll: Liberals trend up for last 2 nights of tracking

Edited October 3, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015

Evening Star · October 3, 2015

Now I'm starting to worry about a Liberal majority (although it would be preferable to a Conservative majority, given the direction they're going).

cybercoma · October 3, 2015

Now I'm starting to worry about a Liberal majority (although it would be preferable to a Conservative majority, given the direction they're going).

There's no majority to be had by the Liberals until they crack 40%. I know Chrétien did it before, but the Conservative vote is too efficient these days. It's interesting to note that the Nanos numbers are doing literally the exact opposite of the other pollsters and this is daily tracking.

Kageshima · October 3, 2015

No sign of Nanos reversing to show the Angus/EKOS results. I hope this trend continues! I bet you the Conservatives stance on "barbaric cultural practices" will backfire on them. It's one thing to be against the niqab, but the name of that resolution sounds plain and simply racist.

Evening Star · October 3, 2015

I don't even have a guess. I thought Trudeau looked like an idiot in the first debate, but then people loved it.

I'm beginning to realize that people actually like all the things about JT that make me want to either vomit or laugh. I thought his digression about his father in the Munk debate was pointless and embarrassing but apparently it moved the crowd to tears.

CITIZEN_2015 · October 3, 2015

Yeah it pays off to have some passion and warmth rather than arrogance and cold blood. Address the real issues like jobs, economy and the environment rather than build on hate and niqab for which only two women affected since 2011 but they try to magnify the issue and build support on it. Shame.

Edited October 3, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015

cybercoma · October 3, 2015

It's empty rhetoric though. That's the problem.

angrypenguin · October 3, 2015

I'm beginning to realize that people actually like all the things about JT that make me want to either vomit or laugh. I thought his digression about his father in the Munk debate was pointless and embarrassing but apparently it moved the crowd to tears.

JT doing that was completely classless and entirely political. How people don't see that is beyond me.

Keepitsimple · October 3, 2015

JT doing that was completely classless and entirely political. How people don't see that is beyond me.

.....and people in Western Canada are probably thinking....."what do we have to do to finally rid ourselves of the elder Trudeau - drive a stake through his cold, dead heart?".

waldo · October 3, 2015

.....and people in Western Canada are probably thinking....."what do we have to do to finally rid ourselves of the elder Trudeau - drive a stake through his cold, dead heart?".

:lol: that's your reach... "the people of Western Canada"? Considering the influx of "Easterners" into Alberta over the years... are you sure? Notwithstanding, other than die-hard partisans/geezers, just who in Alberta thinks of or dwells on "the elder Trudeau"? In any case, "the younger Trudeau" didn't bring the comment forward unsolicited - you can thank the shot Mulcair decided to take for it.

dre · October 3, 2015

Liberals taking off

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/election/nanos-polls

NANOS TRACKING RELEASED OCT. 3, 2015, 6 AM

National Ballot - In the latest Nanos tracking completed Friday evening the Liberals had 34.6% support followed by the Conservatives at 30.5%, the NDP at 25.1%, and the Greens at 4.8% nationally.

Battleground Ontario - There has been a noticeable movement in one of the key battlegrounds in favour of the Liberals over the past two evenings of tracking. Support for the Liberals in battleground Ontario stands at 43.6% while the Conservatives are at 33.8%, the NDP at 18.6% and the Greens at 4.0%

It appears conservatives' build and grow on hate and division (niqab) campaign is backfiring........

Maybe but Iv been expect a big bump for either the NDP or Liberals as the "Anyone but Harper" voters start to coalesce behind one party. This hasnt happened yet because the Liberals and NDP have been so close in the polls but once it becomes clear which one is going to offer the best chance of unseating the CPC, I expect a 5 or 10% bump... Maybe even more.

dre · October 3, 2015

Liberals taking off

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/election/nanos-polls

NANOS TRACKING RELEASED OCT. 3, 2015, 6 AM

National Ballot - In the latest Nanos tracking completed Friday evening the Liberals had 34.6% support followed by the Conservatives at 30.5%, the NDP at 25.1%, and the Greens at 4.8% nationally.

Battleground Ontario - There has been a noticeable movement in one of the key battlegrounds in favour of the Liberals over the past two evenings of tracking. Support for the Liberals in battleground Ontario stands at 43.6% while the Conservatives are at 33.8%, the NDP at 18.6% and the Greens at 4.0%

It appears conservatives' build and grow on hate and division (niqab) campaign is backfiring........

Maybe but Iv been expect a big bump for either the NDP or Liberals as the "Anyone but Harper" voters start to coalesce behind one party. This hasnt happened yet because the Liberals and NDP have been so close in the polls but once it becomes clear which one is going to offer the best chance of unseating the CPC, I expect a 5 or 10% bump... Maybe even more.

angrypenguin · October 3, 2015

This is interesting. we were talking about this yesterday.

http://signal.thestar.com/

Upper right, they've added in the Nanos poll, and updated as of today. Note the CPC, LPC and NDP party numbers have not changed.

Any ideas anyone?

Maybe but Iv been expect a big bump for either the NDP or Liberals as the "Anyone but Harper" voters start to coalesce behind one party. This hasnt happened yet because the Liberals and NDP have been so close in the polls but once it becomes clear which one is going to offer the best chance of unseating the CPC, I expect a 5 or 10% bump... Maybe even more.

Keep on dreaming =P When the NDP started to tank, the CPC benefited more than the LPC, surprisingly.

Edited October 3, 2015 by angrypenguin

Smallc · October 3, 2015

It's empty rhetoric though. That's the problem.

Most people are too shallow to see through it. At this point, I'm probably votin Liberal in spite of him.

angrypenguin · October 3, 2015

Most people are too shallow to see through it. At this point, I'm probably votin Liberal in spite of him.

In spite of who, Trudeau?

If so, wow, just wow.

Smallc · October 3, 2015

In spite of who, Trudeau?

If so, wow, just wow.

I'm convinced that the Liberal plan is the best, not to mention it will benefit me the most in terms of taxes and the spending power of my customers.

angrypenguin · October 3, 2015

I'm convinced that the Liberal plan is the best, not to mention it will benefit me the most in terms of taxes and the spending power of my customers.

So roll back of the TFSA at around $5000 and the good old Liberal way of financing stuff through debt and the inevitable raise in your taxes is something you're not considering?

Perhaps I'm too old now and I remember the Liberal days of promising everything to everyone and then reneging on those words....

"We'll eliminate the GST!" followed by "oops, sorry."

Harper has promised the GST cut from 7% to 6%, and said once they balance the budget it'll go to 5%, and he did that.

He promised the TFSA, and he did that.

He promised to increase it, and he did that.

He promised to increase the TFSA wrt inflation, and he did that.

If anything, give the NDP a shot, at least they've never held power ,but to vote Liberal, that's just insane.

3 years of deificts, and then a balanced budget by the 4th year? That just means either a huge tax hike or program spending cuts. When you run a deficit, either you have a permanent deficit (how's the US doing btw?) or you raise taxes. Full stop.

Edited October 3, 2015 by angrypenguin