Federal Election Polls

[Harry]

Gotta wonder about those polls.

NDP the option on the West Coast

http://www.nationalpost.com/todays-paper/option+West+Coast/4579528/story.html

[Dave_ON]

I have a feeling the Tories knew this was coming. They seemed very unenthusiastic about the thought of an election.

They seemed to have abandoned, for the most part, the coalition rhetoric and are now concentrating on the economy. Smart move, in my opinion. The whole "anti-coalition" schtick was more like preaching to the choir, and not really bumping their numbers.

I'm glad they have, and I think you're right to coalition talk wasn't nearly as effective as they had thought/hoped it would be. Now they actually have to run on a platform, this I know is a novel idea for the CPC considering last election they didn't produce one until the 11th hour and after the debates as I recall.

I think they're going to have a tough sell on their economic record though, increased spending in the military which I agree we need, but with the recent report that calls all of the CPC's numbers into question, the bill is going to be far larger than they indicated. Also this tough on crime is just another spending bill, rather than social programs they're funneling it into prisons. What I find particularly amusing is that they plan on cutting taxes, balancing the budget and returning to modest surpluses, while at the same time increasing spending. These CPC types are magical creatures indeed, wish I knew the secret as to how I could spend more money while making less.

Don't get me wrong I don't think taxes should be hiked, but I also don't see an immediate need for corporate tax cuts. We already have one of the lowest rates in the world, we don't really have to worry about other countries under cutting us on that front. I'm a big fan of status quo at present, it's working so far, let's not muck it up.

[Smallc]

Hmm if the CPC support in Ontario continues to soften at this rate we'll likely see a parliament closer to the 2006 layout as TB had mentioned in another post.

That depends which poll you look at. The Nanos poll (they're better at polling, generally) has them leading by 7 points after being tied with the Liberals just days ago.

[Harry]

Where are those folks who said they like the trends, well so do I.

Ipsos Reid

C - 41%, down 2%

L - 26%, up 2%

N - 19%, up 3%

B - 8%

G = 4%, down 1%

NDP, Liberals gaining

'Jack Layton appears to be the big winner in the hearts of Canadians so far as 26 per cent say their impression of him has improved, compared to just seven per cent who say their impression has worsened, representing a net increase of 19 points. Most (62 per cent) say their views are unchanged, while five per cent don’t know.'

http://www.globaltvbc.com/Liberals+gaining+Tories+stay/4584984/story.html

Edited April 8, 2011 by Harry

[Harry]

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Edited April 8, 2011 by Harry

[GWiz]

I'm hearing still 20+% undecided across the country...

A looooong way from over...

[bloodyminded]

I'm hearing still 20+% undecided across the country...

A looooong way from over...

I would also suggest (and this can go more than one way, yes, I certainly realize that) that a large number of self-labelled "decideds" can still end up changing their minds later.

[Harry]

Nanos

C - 40.5%

L - 31.7%

N - 13.2%

B - 9.2%

G - 4.0%

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/20110408-BallotE.pdf

[Harry]

CROP

Outremont:

Mulcair NPD - 47%

Cauchon LIB- 27%

Daoust Bloc 14%

Lac-Saint-Louis:

Scarpaleggia LPC 46%

Smith CPC 26%

Schad NPD 12%

http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=fr&u=http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/elections-federales/201104/08/01-4388207-mulcair-en-avance-dans-outremont.php&prev=/search%3Fq%3Dhttp://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/regional/montreal/%26hl%3Den%26safe%3Doff%26client%3Dfirefox-a%26hs%3DlIV%26rls%3Dorg.mozilla:en-US:official%26prmd%3Divns&rurl=translate.google.com

[Harry]

Looking at the CROP poll just above, it appears those dumb-ass comments by Smith shows he is not the sharpest tool in the box.

Plain-speaking Larry Smith joins Quebec’s pork-barrel pantheon

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/plain-speaking-larry-smith-joins-quebecs-pork-barrel-pantheon/article1977910/

[GWiz]

I would also suggest (and this can go more than one way, yes, I certainly realize that) that a large number of self-labelled "decideds" can still end up changing their minds later.

If Ignatieff can overcome almost 2 years of Harper attack ads and be seen as human (the more he's heard and listened to the more he's liked) I like the chances of how this election could break...

[nicky10013]

If Ignatieff can overcome almost 2 years of Harper attack ads and be seen as human (the more he's heard and listened to the more he's liked) I like the chances of how this election could break...

I think we'll see a bigger shift in the numbers after the debate on Tuesday. that's when Canadians traditionally tune in during a writ.

[nicky10013]

“If anybody is kept out of any of our events that’s there to hear our message, we obviously apologize to them. … Our interest is in having as many people out to hear our message as we can.”

That quote from the Conservative Leader, in light of what’s to date been the most tightly scripted campaign this side of Nursultan Nazarbayev, might well be mistaken for a Second City parody.

I don’t mean to be sour, but what message is he talking about? Mr. Harper has no message and that’s exactly the point. When you’re up a couple of goals and the clock is running down, it’s best to rag the puck.

I’m reminded of 1988, when John Turner faced a similarly quiescent campaign from the Brian Mulroney-led Tories and made free trade the “fight of my life.” Of course, in the end, that all blew up in his face. Allan Gregg invoked the “bomb the bridge” strategy, separating anti-FTA voters from the Liberal Party by attacking Mr. Turner’s credibility.

Still, comparisons are by definition odious and this one no less so. Michael Ignatieff’s already taken the Tories’ best shot and the debate is still ahead of us.

Mr. Harper better bone up. Mr. Ignatieff is going to bring it on debate night – and, if Jack Layton can tag in from time to time, my guess is that by the end of next week, the numbers will have changed dramatically.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/second-reading/douglas-bell/harper-best-get-ready-to-rumble/article1976932/

Edited April 9, 2011 by nicky10013

[Smallc]

According to the new NANOS poll, the CPC will lose significant seats, or at least gain nothing, despite their higher numbers. Their leads in Ontario and Quebec have evaporated.

Edited April 9, 2011 by Smallc

[Harry]

For the past month things have been going downhill for Mr Harper. At this point although in the lead the Conservatives do not appear to have the momentum.

Rash of bonfires gives Conservative support burnt fingers

For a while, it seemed like none of the problems that have been cropping up were affecting public support -but that seems to be changing

If that wasn't bad enough, news broke early this week of a young Ontario woman being expelled from a Conservative rally, ridiculously, because of a Facebook photo she'd taken with Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff.

It took Harper two full days to conjure up an apology.

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Rash+bonfires+gives+Conservative+support+burnt+fingers/4587871/story.html#ixzz1J2My4RmQ

Edited April 9, 2011 by Harry

[ToadBrother]

According to the new NANOS poll, the CPC will lose significant seats, or at least gain nothing, despite their higher numbers. Their leads in Ontario and Quebec have evaporated.

That's the way I'm seeing, good numbers overall, but the nitty gritty shows seriously softening support. I think the Tories are looking at a best case scenario of retaining 2008 levels of support, but I really think we may see 2006 levels, which greatly complicates things for them. The stronger the Liberals are after May 2, the greater the likelihood that they'll move to topple the Conservatives, and if NDP supports collapses as well, then the Tories won't even have an obvious partner to bribe with budget goodies... except for the Bloc, which would be the most delicious irony.

[Smallc]

I mean, the Liberals have now taken the lead in Quebec, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada. Even the BC numbers are below 2008 levels. From the look of things, the Liberals even stand to gain in the prairies.

The conservatives are still above 2008 levels in Atlantic Canada and Ontario...but not by much. The only hope for them is what seems to be the utter collapse of the NDP.

Edited April 9, 2011 by Smallc

[nicky10013]

I mean, the Liberals have now taken the lead in Quebec, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada. Even the BC numbers are below 2008 levels. From the look of things, the Liberals even stand to gain in the prairies.

The conservatives are still above 2008 levels in Atlantic Canada and Ontario...but not by much. The only hope for them is what seems to be the utter collapse of the NDP.

Again. This is still with 20% undecided. I mean, it could go both ways but the Conservatives have run, by all accounts, a terrible campaign thus far.

A strong debate by Ignatieff could really shake things up.

Edited April 9, 2011 by nicky10013

[punked]

I don't know about these Nano's numbers right now. They actually have the Bloc today getting a larger swing nationally then they had in Quebec.

Crop has the NDP almost at 50% in Outremont. I think the Nanos 400 people sample size is swinging their numbers like crazy.

http://translate.google.com/translate?js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&sl=fr&tl=en&u=http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/elections-federales/201104/08/01-4388207-mulcair-en-avance-dans-outremont.php%3Futm_categorieinterne%3Dtrafficdrivers%26utm_contenuinterne%3Dcyberpresse_B4_manchettes_231_accueil_POS2&act=url

[nicky10013]

I don't know about these Nano's numbers right now. They actually have the Bloc today getting a larger swing nationally then they had in Quebec.

Crop has the NDP almost at 50% in Outremont. I think the Nanos 400 people sample size is swinging their numbers like crazy.

http://translate.google.com/translate?js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&sl=fr&tl=en&u=http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/elections-federales/201104/08/01-4388207-mulcair-en-avance-dans-outremont.php%3Futm_categorieinterne%3Dtrafficdrivers%26utm_contenuinterne%3Dcyberpresse_B4_manchettes_231_accueil_POS2&act=url

Yet their national numbers have remained surprisingly consistent.

[Smallc]

Again. This is still with 20% undecided. I mean, it could go both ways but the Conservatives have run, by all accounts, a terrible campaign thus far.

No, they really haven't run a terrible campaign. They've run the exact campaign they said they would. This is a very unexciting election, because there isn't much money to throw around.

[punked]

Yet their national numbers have remained surprisingly consistent.

Maybe if you can account for how a party that only runs in Quebec can gain a higher percentage of the vote nationally then they poll in Quebec. That is my point.

[Smallc]

Maybe if you can account for how a party that only runs in Quebec can gain a higher percentage of the vote nationally then they poll in Quebec. That is my point.

Yeah, the overnight Ontario swing of about 10 points also gives me pause. There's really no explanation for it.

[punked]

Yeah, the overnight Ontario swing of about 10 points also gives me pause. There's really no explanation for it.

It is just the sample size is 1/5th of a normal poll so it is crazy wild. I put more stock in the larger polls even EKOS. I would also like to point out the polls out this week with the largest sample sizes put the numbers more in line with pre election polls.

I don't know why this is, it could be that is other factors at work but it seems weird that Nanos polls are out of line with the others.

Edited April 9, 2011 by punked

[nicky10013]

No, they really haven't run a terrible campaign. They've run the exact campaign they said they would. This is a very unexciting election, because there isn't much money to throw around.

I don't know what campaign you're watching, but all the papers, Macleans, even the National Post are backing me up. Harper looks tired and petulant. It doesn't look like he's running for office, it looks like he's been locked out of his office. It's as if he's lost his fight.

His entire campaign narrative was destroyed on the 3rd day of the campaign when the press came out with story after story about Harper saying how great coalitions are when it was the Liberals who were in power.

Not to mention story after story about Tory staffers who had to be let go because it was found out they were under investigation by the RCMP. We have stories about how the CPC is running the most inaccessible campaign in history. Harper has been blasted for only taking 5 questions a day, barring non-partisans from events for which he actually had to apologize. The campaign has been marred by gaffe after gaffe.

Meanwhile, you have the Liberal campaign that's the exact opposite. Ignatieff is desperate so he's answering every question he can and he's taking unscripted questions from everyone. Every press outlet has remarked how shockingly good of a campaigner he's been.

I've seen the comment more than once that the Tories bought into their own propaganda about Ignatieff and were caught flat footed out of the gate. Now, considering how reasonable he sounds on TV, the months of anti-Ignatieff ads are coming back to haunt the CPC. I said this before the campaign and I'll say this now, Ignatieff's expectations were so low it was ridiculous. Not only is he exceeding them, he's flown over them by leaps and bounds. As the article I posted said, he's taken the hardest hits Harper's had to lay out and he's still standing - more than just that. Furthermore, we haven't even had the debates yet and there's very few people who are expecting Ignatieff not to do well.

Edited April 9, 2011 by nicky10013