Federal Election Polls

[Topaz]

Yesterday, Harper was in Windsor ON., and he said that he would reintroduce the same budget again. Great, more turmoil! Harper knows that the opposition parties didn't agree with it and he's going to put it out anyway. So why is he doing this , playing chicken? This just proves that he doesn't care and playing his games, if we have to go to an election or if the GG has to decide if the second placed party can form one. Harper is like a spoiled little kid and will do anything to get this way. Again I say he's not good enough for the PMO. Also, think he's giving the Tory party a bad PR and Canadians may not trust this party when Harper leaves them behind. So your thoughts on Harper bring back the same budget.

[TimG]

So your thoughts on Harper bring back the same budget.

It really depends on the numbers. If he pulls off a majority then why not? In other scenarios where the government is going down no matter what then what difference does it make?

[BubberMiley]

There is no other party which is so weak it could be effectively taken oven by Quebec nationalists/seperatists.

Do you mean the CPC is ineligible because they have been down that road already?

[TimG]

Do you mean the CPC is ineligible because they have been down that road already?

I have no idea what you are talking about.

[Bryan]

I have no idea what you are talking about.

Neither does he.

[Wild Bill]

well first of all other than in alberta i doubt there will be many ridings with the conservatives at 40%...second it has to be looked at riding by riding, in Quebec city it's a close bloc/con/ndp three way race...third you're assuming a former conservative vote can't go directly to a ndp candidate but only to a liberal...

as far as the bloc is concerned i hold no animosity toward them, we live in a democracy and self determination is their right whether we like it or not...if quebec chooses to leave the federation to bad so sad and good luck, no hard feelings every family has children leave the nest...

Mr. Wyly, if the Tories have been riding as close as spit to 40% nationally for the last month there's no way in hell that could be only on the strength of their Alberta numbers. There simply aren't enough voters in Alberta to skew things that much!

There HAS to be many ridings where their strength exceeds 40%, as well as many where they are far LOWER than 40%!

So in ridings where they have a strong showing, they obviously will have the better chance. Again, their support tends to come out to vote and also not waver. There's very little chance the NDP will steal from the Tories. Philosophically, the average Tory voter is not a socialist. To him or her, the NDP looks like a party that has nice dreams of how to spend money but not a clue as to how to sustainably generate it.

When's the last time ANY NDP type espoused a practical theory of wealth generation? In my entire life I've never heard anything out of them but how to redistribute the wealth. They've always taken business for granted, as if businessmen are genetically programmed to create businesses and never leave the country! Naive in the extreme!

This is what I mean when I say that the NDP has to mature. When you never expect to become the ruling party, it's easy to promise anything. You don't have to care how things would actually work because you won't be responsible for proving it will work! You can call BIG Business all the nasty names you want. You won't be the government dealing with them. You can suck up to small business and never worry about the fact that every small business knows that if they ever grow and cross the magic line into being a BIG business you'll start spitting on them too!

Jack Layton's party has never had to learn that you can champion the little guy without totally alienating other players in the economy. All real jobs come from business. Everything else runs on money originally generated by private business. You can't have a viable economy where everyone is a postie and just mails letters to each other!

We can argue about this, of course. I'm sure you don't agree with me. Still, it doesn't matter a whit. It's still true that most Tory voters think so and will not easily switch to voting NDP. This works both ways. How many NDP voters would vote Tory? After all the demonizing we hear about Harper, not likely very many!

My model still stands. In ridings where there is a strong core Tory vote they can much more easily win if there's vote splitting between the NDP and the Liberals.

[nittanylionstorm07]

Mr. Wyly, if the Tories have been riding as close as spit to 40% nationally for the last month there's no way in hell that could be only on the strength of their Alberta numbers. There simply aren't enough voters in Alberta to skew things that much!

There HAS to be many ridings where their strength exceeds 40%, as well as many where they are far LOWER than 40%!

So in ridings where they have a strong showing, they obviously will have the better chance. Again, their support tends to come out to vote and also not waver. There's very little chance the NDP will steal from the Tories. Philosophically, the average Tory voter is not a socialist. To him or her, the NDP looks like a party that has nice dreams of how to spend money but not a clue as to how to sustainably generate it.

When's the last time ANY NDP type espoused a practical theory of wealth generation? In my entire life I've never heard anything out of them but how to redistribute the wealth. They've always taken business for granted, as if businessmen are genetically programmed to create businesses and never leave the country! Naive in the extreme!

This is what I mean when I say that the NDP has to mature. When you never expect to become the ruling party, it's easy to promise anything. You don't have to care how things would actually work because you won't be responsible for proving it will work! You can call BIG Business all the nasty names you want. You won't be the government dealing with them. You can suck up to small business and never worry about the fact that every small business knows that if they ever grow and cross the magic line into being a BIG business you'll start spitting on them too!

Jack Layton's party has never had to learn that you can champion the little guy without totally alienating other players in the economy. All real jobs come from business. Everything else runs on money originally generated by private business. You can't have a viable economy where everyone is a postie and just mails letters to each other!

We can argue about this, of course. I'm sure you don't agree with me. Still, it doesn't matter a whit. It's still true that most Tory voters think so and will not easily switch to voting NDP. This works both ways. How many NDP voters would vote Tory? After all the demonizing we hear about Harper, not likely very many!

My model still stands. In ridings where there is a strong core Tory vote they can much more easily win if there's vote splitting between the NDP and the Liberals.

Terrible logic. Based on that, Saskatchewan should have never had an NDP government since they are mostly voting Tory now.

[jbg]

There is no other party which is so weak it could be effectively taken oven by Quebec nationalists/seperatists.

Do you mean the CPC is ineligible because they have been down that road already?

I have no idea what you are talking about.

Neither does he.

It's a back-handed reference to 1993 and the Bloc's role in taking down the Progressive Conservative Party of Canada ("PCPC"). He's forgetting that the Reform had a bigger role in the implosion, from within, of the PCPC than the Bloc, though they both played a part.

[nittanylionstorm07]

It's a back-handed reference to 1993 and the Bloc's role in taking down the Progressive Conservative Party of Canada ("PCPC"). He's forgetting that the Reform had a bigger role in the implosion, from within, of the PCPC than the Bloc, though they both played a part.

Canada can blame the PCs for the fact that the Bloc was the official opposition for a while, though... the only party that has enabled separatists into some sort of power position federally.

Edited April 26, 2011 by nittanylionstorm07

[jbg]

When's the last time ANY NDP type espoused a practical theory of wealth generation? In my entire life I've never heard anything out of them but how to redistribute the wealth. They've always taken business for granted, as if businessmen are genetically programmed to create businesses and never leave the country! Naive in the extreme!

Some in Manitoba and Saskatchewan I believe. Technically the NDP is one party so there's no "provincial NDP's" but my understanding is that the provincially oriented politicians are far more pragmatic than the federal politicians.

[nittanylionstorm07]

Another EKOS poll out

CPC 33.9

NDP 27.9

LPC 24.0

BQ 6.0

GRN 6.8

OTH 1.4

[jbg]

Terrible logic. Based on that, Saskatchewan should have never had an NDP government since they are mostly voting Tory now.

Saskatchewan's default mode has been, for years, Canadian Cooperative Federation, the ancestor of the NDP, and the NDP provincially, and the Progressive Conservative, Reform, and now Conservative federally. Not sure if this goes back to 1905, but certainly back to the 1930's.

[nittanylionstorm07]

Saskatchewan's default mode has been, for years, Canadian Cooperative Federation, the ancestor of the NDP, and the NDP provincially, and the Progressive Conservative, Reform, and now Conservative federally. Not sure if this goes back to 1905, but certainly back to the 1930's.

http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Canada_1988_Federal_Election.svg

They are capable of changing. I'm just saying it is terrible logic to assume that since someone has voted for the Tories, it's impossible for them to switch to the NDP. Not everyone who has voted for the Tories is hardcore blue kool-aid drinking CPC member.

[Wild Bill]

Terrible logic. Based on that, Saskatchewan should have never had an NDP government since they are mostly voting Tory now.

As Jbg has already pointed out, there is a big difference between many of the provincial NDP parties and the federal one. Saskatchewan and Manitoba have both had CDP governments FAR more sensible than what we've historically heard from their federal cousins!

Unfortunately, in this situation we're not talking about a Gary Doer cabinet but a Layton one.

Imagine! Assuming all NDP parties are the same! What terrible logic!

Besides, you attacked my model and totally ignored my point. If that's not a cliche socialist thing to do I don't know what is!

[nittanylionstorm07]

As Jbg has already pointed out, there is a big difference between many of the provincial NDP parties and the federal one. Saskatchewan and Manitoba have both had CDP governments FAR more sensible than what we've historically heard from their federal cousins!

Unfortunately, in this situation we're not talking about a Gary Doer cabinet but a Layton one.

Imagine! Assuming all NDP parties are the same! What terrible logic!

Besides, you attacked my model and totally ignored my point. If that's not a cliche socialist thing to do I don't know what is!

There has been no NDP government federally, so how could you compare them? So far, Jack Layton has made more sense than any of the other party leaders in this campaign.

lol @ "cliche socialist thing to do"... I'm sorry, I'm not the one basing my entire point on assuming that all voters for one party act the same way, and that it's impossible! for them to change their minds to the dominant other party.

[nittanylionstorm07]

Interesting on the new EKOS poll (which btw, was polling that ended yesterday...different from the EKOS released last night):

http://ipolitics.ca/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Slide021.jpg

Graphic that shows "All Decided Voters" vs. "Only those Absolutely Certain to Vote"... NDP way ahead of Libs on the latter, and Cons at 35.3 makes a bit more sense.

Also, NDP still surging in Atlantic Canada!

[wyly]

http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Canada_1988_Federal_Election.svg

They are capable of changing. I'm just saying it is terrible logic to assume that since someone has voted for the Tories, it's impossible for them to switch to the NDP. Not everyone who has voted for the Tories is hardcore blue kool-aid drinking CPC member.

there is a political/cultural difference that comes into play, you would assume driving from sask to alberta nextdoor there should be no difference but sask voters are like quebec voters and can be very pragmatic ignoring ideology for their own personal benefit...they also have no fear of cooperative socialism so once they've had their little foray with liberals or conservatives they'll retreat back into socialism...to a native alberatn this is incomprehensible...

[wyly]

As Jbg has already pointed out, there is a big difference between many of the provincial NDP parties and the federal one. Saskatchewan and Manitoba have both had CDP governments FAR more sensible than what we've historically heard from their federal cousins!

Unfortunately, in this situation we're not talking about a Gary Doer cabinet but a Layton one.

Imagine! Assuming all NDP parties are the same! What terrible logic!

Besides, you attacked my model and totally ignored my point. If that's not a cliche socialist thing to do I don't know what is!

worse logic is assuming a federal ndp government will fail when you have never experienced one...you have nothing to base your belief on but scare tactics...

[wyly]

I have no idea what you are talking about.

apparently he does...the liberals also went down that road...

[capricorn]

worse logic is assuming a federal ndp government will fail when you have never experienced one...you have nothing to base your belief on but scare tactics...

Cap and trade, expansion of the French language law in Quebec, more Quebec goodies..etc? I'll pass thanks.

[wyly]

Cap and trade, expansion of the French language law in Quebec, more Quebec goodies..etc? I'll pass thanks.

first the more practical carbon tax is rejected and now it's cap'n trade, climate change denialism runs deep in conservative land...

[Evening Star]

I haven't looked at today's poll but I'm increasingly sceptical of the Apr 25 EKOS projections. Leaving aside the fact that EKOS has been an outlier throughout the campaign, they're still showing a CPC plurality everywhere west of Quebec. I'm not sure how that adds up to 100 seats.

[nittanylionstorm07]

I haven't looked at today's poll but I'm increasingly sceptical of the Apr 25 EKOS projections. Leaving aside the fact that EKOS has been an outlier throughout the campaign, they're still showing a CPC plurality everywhere west of Quebec. I'm not sure how that adds up to 100 seats.

For some reason, they left the Prairies out of the recent poll release graphs. The NDP had been performing well in SK/MB and has a chance to grab another seat in AB.

[Evening Star]

Nanos was also showing the CPC ahead in Atlantic Canada.

[nittanylionstorm07]

Nanos was also showing the CPC ahead in Atlantic Canada.

It's clear to pretty much everyone that doesn't make any sense.