Whose to hold PM Harper's feet to the fire?

[maplesyrup]

Lastest trend says the Liberals will win 1 seat in BC (V. South).

Liberal insiders are now saying their vote strength has dropped to less than 20% in BC.

The chickens are coming home to roost for PM Martin.

The story of the campaign has been the collapse of the Paul Martin campaign.

How many right wing parties do we need in Ottawa?

Now who do you want holding Harper's feet to the fire?:

An old, soon to be replaced, party leader like Paul Martin, or a young energetic leader like Jack Layton?

[Slavik44]

you forgot gilles duceppe, who will probabley be the leader of the un-offical coalition party. Every one will hold press conferences agaisnt harepr but the one who will have the biggest say on his policies will most likely be gilles duceppe simply because I cannot see Layton wanting to associate himself with a conservative government, as it looks like the cons and NDP combined seats could just barely equal 150(assuming 120-125, 30-35)

[Alliance Fanatic]

I think that I would prefer to see a system similar to the US, were their is one party going centre-left, and one party encompasing the centre-right. This will yield the best results. I think that at the end of this election we could possibly end up with a conservative majority government, and an NDP opposition.

[BQSupporter]

Let me just say one thing so everyone will understand. There is no chance in hell that the BQ will prop up a liberal minority government. No chance in hell.

[caesar]

It really doesn't mean much which one wins. There will be another election needed within 6 months. Probably won't last that long. A conservative/Bloc cosalition will be done within two months; A liberal / NDP coalition may last 6 months. Then we will be doing this all over again.

None of the above would be my choice but Harper has to be stopped; he will destroy the Canadian way of life; our health system and my self respect of being a Canadian.

Dream on Alliance.

[August1991]

I think that I would prefer to see a system similar to the US, were their is one party going centre-left, and one party encompasing the centre-right.

That may well happen in ROC. But there will be some 55 odd MPs from Quebec who will be, well, what exactly?

Too many of those BQ MPs will be left wing types when Quebec is not really left wing.

IOW, we cannot have in Canada normal politics. The federal Liberal party will rise again, under the leadership of Stéphane Dion. Watch. (Manley can't do this and Infoman has already decided anyway.)

Canadian politics, like Quebec politics, are fundamentally obsessed by ce qu'on appele la question nationale - or Quebec separatism. It's pathological.

There is no chance in hell that the BQ will prop up a liberal minority government. No chance in hell.

Cent pour cent d'accord.

[BQSupporter]

Casear why do your seem your comments are so random. Canadians aren't going to tolerate another election in 6 months, especially after the way this one as been run. It cost way to much to hold one escpecially twice in one year.The Liberal will proberly dump Martin and its going to take a number of months to run a leadership election.The house usually takes off the summer months, so the house will not meet until late august or early september. A year will have to be the minimum. Starting from September.

[August1991]

There will be another election needed within 6 months.

I disagree.

Canadians aren't going to tolerate another election in 6 months, especially after the way this one as been run.

I agree.

Harper, if he gets the chance to form a government (and the look on PM PM's face implies to me that he will not fight the GG, Mackenzie King style, for it), will have at least several months of life, if not more.

The BQ will not want to provoke another election which people in Quebec might blame on them. The Liberals will be busy choosing a new leader.

I sincerely believe that Harper will use this time to establish himself as a fiscal conservative. The Tory programme can be passed by judicious use of BQ and Liberal votes.

In the meantime, what Harper has to do critically is to create or have an organization in Quebec in preparation of th next federal election. He will have to do what Mulroney achieved. (Now, Harper might actually get Quebec on side.) Watch for Mario Dumont's reaction on the 28 June.

[takeanumber]

Another election will be called for August 28.

(Unless Harper shows his true colors and refuses to call parliament for six months.)

[August1991]

Another election will be called for August 28.

TalkNumb, there is no way Parliament will sit before September, and I'd guess October. The first confidence vote will arrive in November. Harper and Reynolds will go on a soft motion/measure that the Liberals and/or BQ simply can't refuse.

Unlike 1979, there will be no question of bringing back PM PM to fight again. (The Libs may be rather involved in a messy leadership race.) The BQ will only go to the polls if Harper presents a motion/measure so outrageous that it is tantamount to a declaration of war against Quebec.

Once over the first vote, the others will come more easily.

Duceppe and Harper are shrewd. And they both know they're shrewd.

All this is predicated on the assumption that journalist Adrienne chooses Stephen to go first, and the NDP alone can't support PM PM.

[takeanumber]

Harper is shcrewed, but hasn't mastered 300 level political calculus.

All signs point to chaos.

Canadian political culture is no conducive to minority governments.

But meh. If Duceppe can keep Harper from screwing with same sex marriage (a provincial responsibility), and prevent Harper's grubby paws off a woman's right to choose, it would be all in good fun.

A fun few months in parliament.

Alright, I'll push back my estimate.

October 28.

Layton can lay a few landmines.

The Liberals can too.

[August1991]

Harper is shcrewed, but hasn't mastered 300 level political calculus.

I know you don't like the guy. (I suspect what you really don't like is the smugness you'll have to endure.)

But look at how he has lined up his ducks. This guy is no Joe Clark. The West, for the first time in Canadian history, has someone who can play chess.

I'm gonna watch.

If Duceppe can keep Harper from screwing with same sex marriage (a provincial responsibility), and prevent Harper's grubby paws off a woman's right to choose, it would be all in good fun.

Duh. Harper has the perfect excuse for his caucus. How do you think Mulroney kept them in line?

Layton can lay a few landmines.

Hasbro landmines. I feel kinda sad about that. The NDP will play understudy to the BQ.

[BQSupporter]

Takeanumber get it through your thick head there will not be two federal elections within the same year. The people of the country will not accept that and the cost would be huge. If you can't understand that you understand nothing about politics and only act upon your foolish prejudices and political rethoric.

[Slavik44]

The average lenth of a minority government in Canada is, a year and a half. However half the majority governments in Canada last 6 months or less. Most people think the next upcoming one will be about 6 months as well, because of Harper's conservatism. But that doesn't take into account other factors. The biggest one will be liberal leadership. Seriously will the liberals try to run, with Paul Martin at the helm again? No, so most likely they will need to get a new leader. Unfortunantley this new leader will truly be new to canadians, alot of people say it will be dion, so lets say it is him. Most people don't know the guy; dion, sounds more like a hockey player then a Prime Minister, so not only will the liberals need to ditch Paul Martin but also let canadians get to kow Dion. After that happens, the opposition will not defeat the conservatives untill they see the conservatives behind in the polls and their parties well established. I mean if the bloc sees itself fall to 10% they may not defeat the conservatives. Taking all those factors into consideration we have atleast 2 years before another federal election.

[August1991]

Most people don't know the guy; dion, sounds more like a hockey player then a Prime Minister

Slavik, I really enjoy reading your posts. True, you sometimes make spelling mistakes, but I ignore them because I'm curious to read what you mean. Keep posting, please.

[Reverend Blair]

If the Conservatives get a minority (unlikely, I think, because Martin gets first shot at the Governor General and I really don't think that Adrienne is a Harper supporter ), we'll be back at the polls in six to nine months.

If the Liberals get one and start dressing to the left, then it might (big might there) last as long as two years. That would depend a lot on proportional representation and missile defense. It might also require a token cabinet position or two given to the NDP.

Win or lose, I think the Liberals will be looking for a new leader before the next election. Martin has taken an almost sure majority and turned it into a minority at best. Even if he were to pull a rabbit out of his hat and score a majority at this point, I doubt he will be around next time. He'll take an "honourable" retirement and a few board positions and all the faithful will deny he was pushed out. Copps will laugh her hideous laugh though. I, for the first time ever, will laugh with her.

So who will replace Martin? I have no idea, but I have a feeling the right wing of the Liberal party is done for a few years.

I think Harper could be in trouble too, BTW. A lot of Conservatives thought he was a less than brilliant choice, given his history. Now that expectations have been built up, he will likely be toast if he doesn't win.

Being an NDPer my big question is what will happen to Layton. I supported Blaikie for the leadership...he's my MP and I've been extremely impressed with the man (and his daughter who is running against Martin BTW) for fifteen years.

Jack Layton has done well, much better than I thought he would, but some people seem to want more now, especially since the debate. Thoughts?