North Korea Torpedo Incident

[williat]

So by now everyone must have heard about the North Korean torpedo incident and basically from what I understand there has been a report filed by South Korea with help from other countries (US, Canada, ect) that says this was a North Korean torpedo that sank the ship and it was fired from a North Korean sub. I read China has been performing their own investigation and that they won't protect whomever is at fault. I want to hear what everyone else thinks on the subject, personally I don't know much about military technology or how they would find the remains of this so-called torpedo after it destroyed a ship.

I've always had a little bit of conspiracy theorist in me, mostly because they are always pretty interesting theories. I've read in a couple places that some people are suggesting this may have been an act performed by another country to provoke another Korean war. On the other hand i've read news reports that a "group" of North Korean mini-subs (whatever that means) left a base along with an escort ship a few days before this the Cheonan sank, and returned shortly after. I mean if they had subs deployed I have to say that it doesn't look good, but I could also see how they could be easily blamed. I've also read that the torpedo has numbers that match an older model torpedo that the South Korean's have in their possession. Personally I'm not trying to dispute the fact that it's a North Korean torpedo, what's more interesting to me is if South Korea was able to get a hold of one of these, then couldn't other countries? Also if it matches an older model torpedo the South Korean's have, then couldn't it be an older torpedo that some other country fired to try to provoke a situation, knowing that the numbers would be similar enough to say it was North Korea? I could see why finding a reason to attack North Korea could be good for a lot of countries, take out another nut case running a country, not that I'm saying I would agree with provoking an incident such as this....but I can see why someone would consider it.

What I do find more interesting however is how South Korea is handling it, I'm pretty impressed that they haven't started killing each other yet. I mean they are formally asking the UN to look into, pretty fair if you ask me. You can argue what you want about the UN being corrupt but I mean at least they didn't just started shooting at North Korea.

[bush_cheney2004]

The types of heavyweight torpedoes presumed to be in the DPRK's inventory (but not proven) are discussed in detail here:

Pyongyang is believed to have four to five types of heavy torpedoes built in China and Russia.

The Type EO-3G torpedo developed by China is referred to as the probable culprit. Built in the 1980s, the torpedo is a passive homing weapon capable of hitting a ship after tracking the vessel's screws acoustically.

The Type EO-6 and ET-80A are also referred to as homing weapons that might have hit the 1,200-ton frigate near the western sea border with North Korea on the night of March 26.

http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2010/05/205_64867.html

Because these types of torpedoes were sold / exported to many former Soviet/Chinese client and non client states, it is good circumstantial but not conclusive proof of DPRK complicity. Also, there is the problem of deployment of a heavyweight torpedo from a small "mini-sub" platform, so that part of the story needs more analysis. The other possibility is mines.

The ET-80 was the Soviet torpedo most recognized by American and British sonar training/tactics regimens during the Cold War.

As for analysis of torpedo fragments post detonation, a heavyweight torpedo in "surface ship" mode has a 700 to 1000 lb warhead that would detonate by a primary proximity fuze under the hull (or secondary contact fuze) to create a large gas bubble that breaks the keel of the target. Blast effects are secondary. The basic hull sections of the torpedo (sensor, warhead/fuse, electronics command module, fuel tank/battery, engine/tailcone) would all suffer varying degrees of fragmentation but not complete disintegration.

Australian exercise with a Mk 48 heavyweight warshot torpedo:

[williat]

Intense stuff.

[Ilie Vasiliev]

It is clear that North Korea did sink the ship, the question is why? Was it to provoke South Korea like it did with its nuclear project? Or was it an accident?

China stays neutral and doesn't want to blame the north because it knows very well that if a war erupts, North Korea will stand no chance against NATO forces.

[xul]

the question is why?

The cause of the skirmish can be traced back to the time of the Korean War. In the war, NK and its ally China didn't have any naval forces so some small islands outside North's coastal area were captured by America navy for surveillance and espionage purpose. When the war was going to end, the nationalist dictator of SK, who worried his country would be divided forever, refused to sign the agreement of ceasefire, so the ceasefire was only between NK, China and America-led UN forces. In the land, American troops was deployed between NK troops and SK troop to make the ceasefire effective. But in the sea, since both NK and SK navies were too weak then, it seems like no one bothered to draw a border line to separate them. The so-called border was declared unilaterally by SK and US in 1953 but never being recognized by NK.

In 1970s, Nk declared the width of its maritime belt 12 nautical miles, so the maritime border drawn by SK in 1953 cut into NK's territory water, from NK's point of view, and the tension began to raise. But since it was in the Cold War, that meat the war dogs of both side were supposed to be muzzled by their USSR and US superpower masters, there was not any skirmish happened.

In 1990s, the international circumstance changed. Soviet had gone and SK had got a Chinese embassy in Seoul, and the Germany had reunited again after communist East Germany collapsed, so the SK government might think it was safe and possible to reunite its country by using its stronger navy forces challenging NK's weaker navy to crumple NK communist dictator's regime.

The first skirmish, the First Battle of Yeonpeong broke out on June 9 and 15, 1999. 30 NK sailors were killed and 70 wounded. One NK torpedo boat was sunk and 5 others were seriously damaged. The lost of SK are minimal, only 11 sailor wounded. Though most western meida adopted SK's allegation that the NK initiated the skirmish, but I trust my own judgement---it was the military hawks of SK which started the skirmish. If anyone reviews the international environment the NK faced in 1999, I mean such as Soviet had gone, terrorism was not the major issue of US at the time, China was militarily unprepared(most fighters of PLAAF were J-7s, a Chinese version of MIG-21 then)and was concentrated on the Taiwan issue, he will conclude that the dictator of Nk was unlikely the one to start the conflict.

The second skirmish, the Second Battle of Yeonpeong happened in June 29, 2002. A NK gunboat reportedly took the initiative to attack a bigger gunboat of SK and sank it. Usually the Second Battle of Yeonpeon is considered as the NK's revenge for its loss of the First Battle of Yeopeong. 6 SK sailors and 14 NK sailors were killed in the skirmish. This time the dictator took the initialtive beacuse the terrorists attack had happened and he might reckon the US was unlikely to do nothing more than verbal condemnation to back SK.

The third skirmish burst out on November 10, 2009, known as the Battle of Daecheon. A SK gunboat initially fired at a NK gunboat in distant range and forced it back its base. 3 NK sailor were killed in the battle. This time the South took the initiative becasue right-wing politician Lee Myung-bak was elected as president and he is more favour on gunboat diplomacy than delivering carrot to the NK dictator---that was his predecessor's policy.

The event of the sinking of corvette Cheonan, is just another skirmish in this disputed water. It can be considered as the NK revenged for its loss in the Battle of Daecheon IMO. People tend to think it is a big deal just because the results of the skirmish surprised everyone, not because of the the skirmish itself.

Edited June 7, 2010 by xul

[williat]

It is clear that North Korea did sink the ship, the question is why? Was it to provoke South Korea like it did with its nuclear project? Or was it an accident?

China stays neutral and doesn't want to blame the north because it knows very well that if a war erupts, North Korea will stand no chance against NATO forces.

Well it's clear that NK sank the ship according to reports, although wasn't it also reported there was WMD in Iraq? I mean I have no idea if they fired the torpedo or not, nor am I claiming to know. It could have been an accident as you suggested, but that would be a big screw up. This is how I feel on the whole subject, personally I don't think Kim Jong-Il is dumb enough to attack SK at this moment, he knows NATO/US is waiting for a reason to come oust him from power (if he doesn't know then he's in some trouble), so to me I honestly have a hard time believing that NK would just fire a torpedo at a SK ship without being provoked. Like we've both said it could have been a mistake (i.e. thought the SK ship was in NK water), but for me I'll stand by my skepticism on the entire thing.

I mostly agree with what you said about China, they've said they plan to hold whomever is at fault accountable but if anything comes of it I would be surprised. As Xul stated its just another skirmish in an area that is known for this type of thing, I think I'm really only surprised and pretty much the only reason I brought it up is because the Cheonan sank.

[dre]

Well it's clear that NK sank the ship according to reports, although wasn't it also reported there was WMD in Iraq? I mean I have no idea if they fired the torpedo or not, nor am I claiming to know. It could have been an accident as you suggested, but that would be a big screw up. This is how I feel on the whole subject, personally I don't think Kim Jong-Il is dumb enough to attack SK at this moment, he knows NATO/US is waiting for a reason to come oust him from power (if he doesn't know then he's in some trouble), so to me I honestly have a hard time believing that NK would just fire a torpedo at a SK ship without being provoked. Like we've both said it could have been a mistake (i.e. thought the SK ship was in NK water), but for me I'll stand by my skepticism on the entire thing.

I mostly agree with what you said about China, they've said they plan to hold whomever is at fault accountable but if anything comes of it I would be surprised. As Xul stated its just another skirmish in an area that is known for this type of thing, I think I'm really only surprised and pretty much the only reason I brought it up is because the Cheonan sank.

I dont believe much of what I hear in the media about incidents like this anymore, but I havent seen anything that might implicate anyone else.

I admit though... this crossed my mind. Virtually any adversary of the US would find it rather enoyable to watch the US bogged down in yet another conflict paid for with borrowed money. The problem with the theory of course is it would have been a stupid plan. Anyone considering it should have known that it would NOT start the conflict they were hoping for and that South Korea would not do anything rash with the worlds largest artillary battery that close to their capital.

My guess is that it was either an accident or a really stupid act by NK. But its possible theres a lot more to it we dont know and will never know.

[Oleg Bach]

You would imagine that North Korea would have taken the makings off of the torpedo shell before they launched it..are they stupid or are they provoking the world on purpose? Who really knows- for a brief period I had some communication with an American intelligence officer who lost a leg and eye in Iraq during the early days - He told me that American contractors would set off car bombs and blame it on the Shites - next week they would do the same and blame it on the Soonies. This stuff goes on all the time. War is business...you would assume that with nuclear weapons that conventional warfare would be a thing of the past..but there is no profit in nuclear war - but there is profit in contained conventional war.

Israel launders money and gets aid from AMERICA..What people do not understand is that there is a deal between Israel and America - that tax dollars sent to Israel in the form of aid - MUST be used in part to buy weapons and fulfill security contracts..In other words - the stupid American tax payer sends his dollars to Israel - and Israel in turn sends back the money as arms payments-- during this cycle the tax payer does not profit - but the weapons companies do..so taxes are used by the rich as collatoral - and when civilians are killed - they are mere collatoral damage.

[williat]

You would imagine that North Korea would have taken the makings off of the torpedo shell before they launched it..are they stupid or are they provoking the world on purpose? Who really knows- for a brief period I had some communication with an American intelligence officer who lost a leg and eye in Iraq during the early days - He told me that American contractors would set off car bombs and blame it on the Shites - next week they would do the same and blame it on the Soonies. This stuff goes on all the time. War is business...you would assume that with nuclear weapons that conventional warfare would be a thing of the past..but there is no profit in nuclear war - but there is profit in contained conventional war.

I totally believe that some of these terrorist jobs (car bombings, suicide bombings) are no doubt the work of intelligence forces much like you said, keeps everyone in a state of terror (hence the term terrorist). I've heard a couple stories such as these over the years, I also saw a documentary once (can't remember the name but I think it was by Frontline) that was interviewing a US commando and at one point the US knew exactly where Osama was hiding but did not/were not allowed to act on intelligence. Far too many powerful people are making money off the war.

Israel launders money and gets aid from AMERICA..What people do not understand is that there is a deal between Israel and America - that tax dollars sent to Israel in the form of aid - MUST be used in part to buy weapons and fulfill security contracts..In other words - the stupid American tax payer sends his dollars to Israel - and Israel in turn sends back the money as arms payments-- during this cycle the tax payer does not profit - but the weapons companies do..so taxes are used by the rich as collatoral - and when civilians are killed - they are mere collatoral damage.

What? I thought we were talking about North Korea?

[GostHacked]

The types of heavyweight torpedoes presumed to be in the DPRK's inventory (but not proven) are discussed in detail here:

I did not want to quote the whole post, but this is about the most objective post I have ever read from you.

[xul]

I did not want to quote the whole post, but this is about the most objective post I have ever read from you.

Except the information of the maker of the torpedo was a bit outdated....

How Did N.Korea Sink the Cheonan?

The military believes that the submarine found the Cheonan on the evening of March 26 and fired a CHT-02D torpedo at the vessel from 3 km away.

DPRK CHT-02D Torpedo

Pieces of torpedo propeller recovered

[bjre]

Except the information of the maker of the torpedo was a bit outdated....

How Did N.Korea Sink the Cheonan?

DPRK CHT-02D Torpedo

Pieces of torpedo propeller recovered

I guess there were some points in your previous comment. Do you think a SK frigate could not find an out-dated NK submarine?

In modern navies, frigates are used to protect other warships and merchant-marine ships,

especially as anti-submarine warfare

(ASW) combatants for amphibious expeditionary forces, underway replenishment groups, and merchant convoys.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frigate

I don't think the ship was torpedoed by North Korean. If North Korean fired a torpedo to the South Korean ship, all sonar consoles on the ship would buzz and the South Korean would be certain that they had been attacked. Considering the technical capability of the North, they have no way to sneak a warship or a sub to the South warship in torpedo range without being detected.

The fact is up till now the South government is still uncertain that whether or not they have been attacked. The explosion is probably caused by its own ammunition explosion, though there is a slight possibility that it is caused by a drifting sea mine.

Edited June 7, 2010 by bjre

[williat]

Yeah I would believe it was a mine if thats what they came out and said. Like its been said considering that the Cheonan wasn't able to pick up the sub or torpedo it seems a bit fishy to me, although they haven't come out and said "We didn't know it was there" so I suppose its how you want to interpret the whole thing. Personally I just feel like now adays they keep so much information from us its nuts, I mean are we ever going to know if it was NK? Probably not, my guess would be China will come back and say something like "It's unclear if a torpedo is what sank the ship/who fired", which will bring things right back to where they were.

In relation however to some suggesting that a mine or the Cheonan's own ammunition sank it, I'm not sure if I'm totally willing to accept this story either, I mean they obviously found remnants of a torpedo so doesn't this sort of rule out this theory. Unless of course you're suggesting that it was planted or something along those lines. The one thing that I thought was good about this entire event (if you can call it a good thing) is that SK handled the situation very well, bringing NK in front of the UN security council is the most grown-up move I've seen a state make in a while.

[bjre]

It looks somewhat similar when each time media tell lies.

Now the title of the news gradually changed as if it has been confirmed like "How Did N.Korea Sink the Cheonan?" just like what happened in "Iraq has WMD", or "Pandemic H1N1".

Read news will find

U.S. Carrier To Join S. Korea Anti-Submarine Drill http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=4653516

U.S. might send carrier to Korea, officials say http://www.salon.com/news/north_korea/?story=/news/feature/2010/06/02/us_warship_korea

So, that is the purpose, the real purpose what they want.

But after some rumors said China will attack any US aircraft carrier enter the Yellow Sea, now is not the time in 19th century that one war ship come can lead to mass kill huge number of Chinese, some other news appeared:

Pentagon denies aircraft carrier being deployed to Korean Peninsula http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/asiapcf/06/03/south.korea.us/index.html

I don't know what will happened. But one thing is sure, if any confused news comes continuously that we can not tell if it is a lie or not, that means someone is controlling media for their own evil purpose that we don't know.

Edited June 8, 2010 by bjre

[xul]

But after some rumors said China will attack any US aircraft carrier enter the Yellow Sea

China will not attack any US warship, Japanese warship, Vietnamese warship...Somali pirate ship(if it is not on action) in Yellow sea, because China has no right to do such thing. Most part of the Yellow Sea are international water and everyone can go into there.

I suggest you don't trust the information from the posts in those Chinese military fanboys's forum anymore, because there are hardly any funboys, amateurs, reasonable posters...or even western-so-called nationalists left now. IMO the only posters there are propagandalists---from both side, pro-communist and con-communist---and ignorant young peasant posters, who usually only can write "one-word replies" like "agree", "no", "shit", "fuck", etc. I'm even not sure the pro-communist posters are hired by China government for their poor understanding on Chinese governmental policy. I think most of them are hired by the woners of the websites who want to tinge their website red to pass the annually governmental censorship and certification, and please those pro-government rich peasants, meanwhile the con-communist poster's function is to cater for con-government poor peasants who always whine that Deng's capitalism reform has made them poor. The purpose of the webmasters is to raise debate to draw as many visitors and readers into his website as possible, so he is able to persuade advertizers advertising on the website to fund the website alive.

The propagandalist posters usually are called Wumao, that means 50 cent--that's the price the webmasters pay them for each post or each reply for their posts. I believe most 50cents are just some poor peasant-family-born high school or college students who want to earn extra money to by an iPod or something. You can identify them by, , using personal abuse on them, like replying their posts with offensive words such as "your an idiot", "you're a fool", etc. They will not retort you or protest or complain to webmaster, because you have just let them earning another 50 cent.

Edited June 8, 2010 by xul

[xul]

I guess there were some points in your previous comment. Do you think a SK frigate could not find an out-dated NK submarine?

I said that when I had forget SK was a country which had mistakenly flown it civilian airliners into Soviet airspace and were shot down twice.Korean Air Lines Flight 007 Maybe this time the sailors who were responsible to handle the sonar consoles were also a bit drowsy like the pilots of Korean Air Lines Flight 007. I read somewhere that the two ships had drilled (anti-submarine drills, kinda sarcastic)with American warships whole day before the incident happened, so the sailors might be very tired. The captain reportedly was in bed when.

There are also rumors or conspiracy theories said that it was American sub which accidentally sank the Korean ship. NK navy isn't the only one which owns the mini-sub suitable for shallow water. American billions-dollars-worthed newest technology has made them a perfect suspect of the culprit. The minisub on the back of Virginia Class And coincidently I remember the technology of precisely guiding and exploding a torpedo directly under the middle of hull of the target to snap it, not like traditional torpedo only hitting its most noisy part--the stern, is only used by the newest American torpedos. The flaw of the theory is that it seems like the seal-minisub has no ability to fire a torpedo.

Another conspiracy theory is the evidence, the fragments of a NK torpedo, which the South military presented might be fired by NK in its previous navy drills not at the night of the event happened. The SK military presented it as the evidence just for covering its mistake and incompetence which caused the the incidence.

Generally, I dislike conspiracy theories. But the uncertainty of the cause of the event is very helpful for NK to get rid of any possibility of an UN condemnation.

Edited June 9, 2010 by xul