Hamilton East By-Election today (May 13/04)

[maplesyrup]

Voter anger makes an Agostino dynasty unlikely

It may simply be Ralph Agostino's bad luck that he's the first Liberal to pop his head up from the waters that Paul Martin and Dalton McGuinty have roiled in recent months

The likely beneficiary of this protest vote is Andrea Horwath, 42, a veteran Hamilton city councillor who is seeking to return Hamilton East to the New Democratic Party fold. There are no polls to confirm this, but the disarray in Liberal ranks and doorstep conversations suggest Ms. Horwath has the momentum she needs to erase the 7,000-vote advantage Dominic Agostino had in last October's general election

[NDP Newbie]

May be in trouble?

Saying that the Fiberals got guillotined would be an understatement:

HAMILTON EAST - HAMILTON-EST

After the period prescribed by the Election Act, the official poll-by-poll results will be posted on this web site.

Après la période prescrite par la Loi Électorale, les résultats officiels bureau par bureau seront affichés sur ce site Web.

187 POLLS OUT OF

BUREAUX DE VOTE 187

Candidate/Candidat(e) Political Affiliation/Appartenance Politique Votes %

AGOSTINO, RALPH ONTARIO LIBERAL PARTY

PARTI LIBÉRAL DE L'ONTARIO 6362 26.6

CRUGNALE, TARA PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE PARTY OF ONTARIO

PARTI PROGRESSISTE-CONSERVATEUR DE L'ONTARIO 1772 7.4

DARTSCH, RAYMOND GREEN PARTY OF ONTARIO

PARTI VERT DE L'ONTARIO 448 1.9

HORWATH, ANDREA NEW DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF ONTARIO

NOUVEAU PARTI DÉMOCRATIQUE DE L'ONTARIO 15185 63.6

TURMEL, JOHN C. INDEPENDENT

INDÉPENDANTS 120 0.5

The Golden Horse Shoe's gonna be fun come June. :-)

[maplesyrup]

These election results confirm all the polling which has shown the NDP seriously rising in popularity, and with this kind of momentum, is a very good omen for the NDP going into the federal election campaign.

I just hope that the Cons vote does not completely collapse. otherwise it will be difficult to prevent the Liberals from acquiring another majority government.

I wonder what can be done to help prop up the Cons, as their showing was a disaster.

Cons 7.4%

Grn 1.9%

Libs 26.6%

NDP 63.6%

[August1991]

These were the results in the 2003 Provincial General Election in Hamilton East:

Lib 51.7%

PC 13%

NDP 29.1%

The NDP and Liberals switched places in this riding.

The Tory result in Hamilton East is hardly representative of Ontario as a whole.

However, I think this by-election result does suggest that Ontario voters may well surprise the Liberals come 8 pm EDT on 28 June.

[odie441]

Hamilton is is a bluecollar town. It is no wonder the NDP won. They still believe the union BS that only the NDP can build their utopian workers paradise. God bless them as they all climb on the short bus!

[maplesyrup]

These were the results in the 2003 Provincial General Election in Hamilton East:

Lib 51.7%

PC 13%

NDP 29.1%

The NDP and Liberals switched places in this riding.

The Tory result in Hamilton East is hardly representative of Ontario as a whole.

However, I think this by-election result does suggest that Ontario voters may well surprise the Liberals come 8 pm EDT on 28 June.

Cons 7.4%, from 13%, down 5.6%

Libs 26.6%, from 51.7%, down 25.1%

NDP 63.6%, from 29.1%, up 34.5%

By-elections are the time that voters express their frustrations with the governemnt, because they know they can do so, without bringing down the government.

This drop of 43.1% in support for the Cons is a very bad omen for Harper.

I think people in Ontario are still quite angry about the policies of the previous Cons government.

[Michael Hardner]

I don't know about that. The district leans left, and it's a PROVINCIAL election with the Conservatives lacking a leader right now. I don't think Harper should be too conerned.

[odie441]

I have to agree with you Micheal. The provincial Tories are adrift right now and that does not inspire confidence.

The Provincial LIberals came to power due to Tory arrogance but are fast sinking and will fall to the wayside in the next provincial election. That is unless Dalton can stop blaming the previous government for all his woes and actually start governing in a rational way that appeals to voters. That however is a reality that escapes him on a daily basis. In the world of Canadian politics, McGinty is a lightweight who barely registers on the personality scale. The people of Ontario didn't vote for him, they voted against the Tories.

I have a feeling that the same will happen on the federal level. Ontario "could" backlash and vote against the federal LIberals on a grand scale as a protest against 10 years of mismanagement and graft. However considering the fact that they are sheep and extremely lazy voters, they will find the nearest poll numbers and vote according to those numbers. BAAAAAAAAAA!!!

[maplesyrup]

Well Stephen Harper doesn't agree with you guys. He feels federal party fortunes are very closely linked to the provincial scene as per the following article.

Harper sees good news in budget woes

I think Hamilton East was a litmus test for what's coming federally in the Hamilton area.