Will there be a Federal Election in 2009?

[August1991]

“The Liberal Party cannot support this government any further,” Ignatieff told Liberal lawmakers today in Sudbury, Ontario. “Mr. Harper, your time is up.”

Bloomberg

“We are not asking ourselves do we want an election or not,” Duceppe said. “We’re considering each issue on its own value. If it’s good for Quebec, if it goes in the direction of Quebec’s interests, we’re supporting it.

“If not, we’ll oppose it and then we’ll face the consequences, whether that means an election or not. This is what it is to be responsible in politics: We’re putting Quebec’s interests before the party’s interests.

“I want to assure Quebecers that, as we have always done in the past, we will stand up for Quebec with pride.”

The Gazette

"If people want to work together on things that will help the economy, we're willing to do that. But we've had no indication of that from Mr. Layton," said Harper, during a stop in Sault Ste. Marie.

Toronto Star

But NDP national director Brad Lavigne left the door open to working with the government.

"There is a difference between propping up the Conservatives and making a minority Parliament work," Lavigne said on CTV News.

"We're saying, look, we want to make Parliament work. We're willing to, obviously, look at issues as they arise. We're not going to predict how we'll vote on things that we haven't seen," he said.

WSJ

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I think that this is a play by Ignatieff to change the perception that it is the Liberals who support or keep the Conservatives in power. Ignatieff wants that default perception to fall to Layton and the NDP.

IOW, Ignatieff wants to remove the stigma that he is the softy who caves in to keep Parliament working - while letting Duceppe and Layton appear to be principled and anti-Harper.

Keep in mind that Harper needs only one of the three: Liberals, NDP or Bloc to avoid an election.

I think the gambit will work and Layton will go for it.

So by this logic, there will be no election this fall. Layton is to give a press conference this afternoon. I'll bet that he offers an olive branch.

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Ignatieff's move is about perception and I think it's a smart move.

Edited September 3, 2009 by August1991

[Dave_ON]

I would tend to agree with you on perception move on Ignatieff's part. Frankly the NDP have had a free ride this whole time and it's time they started having to deal with the repercussions of voting No when it actually matters.

I also agree that the NDP will offer an olive branch but I somehow doubt Harper will accept it given their past record for voting against him. We all know that the NDP will ask for items that Harper won't be willing to give. The CPC supporters may tolerate the CPC propped up by the relatively centrist LPC but I doubt they could stomach the support of Socialists and Separatists as Harper himself so artfully put it.

I could be wrong though, I guess we'll see just how principled the NDP really are. As for the BLOC no change on that front, they've always been in the game for PQ's best interests. But I'm not certain Mr. Harper is able to give enough to PQ to ensure the BLOC's continued support.

Really the LPC is far closer to the CPC ideologically then either the NDP or the BLOC and I'm not sure Mr. Harper is willing to bend that far.

[Topaz]

I'm not sure on that with Jack. He's taken some rough comments from the Tories this past year and I think Harper may have burned its bridges with the NDP and the Bloc. If I had to pick one of the two, it would probably be the Bloc will bend and there as the Tories had said about the Libs, they will make a deal with the devil. Have you noticed a change in the Bloc. They say now "what is good for Quebec" and not what is good for the separatists.

[August1991]

I also agree that the NDP will offer an olive branch but I somehow doubt Harper will accept it given their past record for voting against him.

According to Comartin (and the Toronto Star), Layton wants reform on pension, EI and bank fees:

The cost of averting an election appears to be a detailed pledge from Prime Minister Stephen Harper to quickly change the rules on key issues – employment insurance, pension protection and credit card fees – the New Democrats pushed this year.

"We would want to see definitive action in all three," New Democrat MP Joe Comartin (Windsor-Tecumseh) said yesterday when asked what the federal Conservative government would have to do to count on support from his party in confidence votes this fall, now that Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff has vowed to topple the government.

Toronto Star

(What a shopping list!)

Anyway, there's enough fudge room for Layton to huff and puff, sound anti-Harper and yet still vote against an election.

IMV, this is a game of chicken between Ignatieff and Layton and I think Layton will blink first.

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Note too that Harper wheeled out Kenney to claim that no compromise between the NDP and the Tories was possible. If a compromise is possible, Harper can step and do it.

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Last point: Ignatieff's line in the sand may be too smart by half. The NDP may prop up the government but in the casual public memory, some people will only remember that Ignatieff (once again) threatened an election but there was no election.

IOW, perhaps Ignatieff should be trying an entirely different approach to this problem. For example, Ignatieff could lull Harper into believing that the Liberals will support this government regardless and then, when the Tories do something stupid, pull the rug from under them. I think that would be a better strategy than playing chicken with Layton.

Edited September 3, 2009 by August1991

[August1991]

If I had to pick one of the two, it would probably be the Bloc will bend and there as the Tories had said about the Libs, they will make a deal with the devil. Have you noticed a change in the Bloc. They say now "what is good for Quebec" and not what is good for the separatists.

The Bloc hasn't changed its tune but you make a good point, Topaz.

[Dave_ON]

According to Comartin (and the Toronto Star), Layton wants reform on pension, EI and bank fees:Toronto Star

(What a shopping list!)

Anyway, there's enough fudge room for Layton to huff and puff, sound anti-Harper and yet still vote against an election.

IMV, this is a game of chicken between Ignatieff and Layton and I think Layton will blink first.

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Note too that Harper wheeled out Kenney to claim that no compromise between the NDP and the Tories was possible. If a compromise is possible, Harper can step and do it

That is quite the list and one I sincerely doubt Mr. Harper will be willing to move very far on. I can't believe the NDP are still harping on credit card fees.

Be that as it may I suppose we'll have to wait and see Mr. Harper himself is quite sceptical of Mr. Layton's sincerity however according to the CBC article.

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2009/09/03/...ion-090309.html

Since Ignatieff announced he would not support the government any longer, other NDP officials have offered to work with the government on a case-by-case basis. But Harper has said he doubts Layton's sincerity.

Also interesting to note in this article is the position the CPC seems to be aiming to put the LPC in. The Home Reno initiative which is quite popular is slotted to be voted on when parliament resumes. If the LPC is forced to vote against it, as Mr. Ignatieff stated they would at the first possible opportunity, it could potentially do some damage to them.

One would think that since both the BLOC and the NDP voted against the original budget that the home reno was a part of they'd vote against this as well though I somehow doubt it.

[punked]

One would think that since both the BLOC and the NDP voted against the original budget that the home reno was a part of they'd vote against this as well though I somehow doubt it.

NO offence but I think I know a little about the NDP base voting against the home reno credit wont hurt them as much as the Liberals, or the Cons for forcing the vote on it. Case by case remember.

[punked]

I thought these might add to the conversation BTW.

“Our party is united in its determination to face Mr. Harper down.” – Michael Ignatieff to meeting of New Brunswick Liberals, -Telegraph-Journal December 6, 2008

“We've put down a very clear marker. This government has to get the money out the door … If this government fails to meet these targets, it will not survive for long." – Michael Ignatieff, CBC.ca, January 28, 2009

“Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff is looking to June as his first chance to defeat the Harper government over its handling of the economic crisis, according to his finance critic.” – Globe and Mail, February 27, 2009

"I want to make Parliament work but I don't write blank cheques. That's not what my voters sent me to Parliament to do," he said less than three hours before Liberals approved the fund. "If the government wants to make Parliament work, we can find a way to make it work. If they don't want to make it work, look out." – Michael Ignatieff, Hamilton Spectator, March 25, 2009

“Michael Ignatieff declared Thursday that federal Liberals are united, out of debt and "basically ready to fight an election" if an impasse is reached in Parliament.” – Canwest News, April 30, 2009

“The leader of the federal Liberal party has threatened to push for an election if the minority Conservative government doesn't support proposals to reform the employment insurance system.” – CBC.ca, May 3, 2009

“Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff says the party will decide next week whether to try to bring down the Harper government and plunge the country into a mid-summer election.” – Canadian Press, June 3, 2009.

[jdobbin]

Last point: Ignatieff's line in the sand may be too smart by half. The NDP may prop up the government but in the casual public memory, some people will only remember that Ignatieff (once again) threatened an election but there was no election.

I think you are going to be surprised about the enmity some will feel at the base of the partes to a coalition.

Edited September 3, 2009 by jdobbin

[OddSox]

Something tells me there will be a number of 'swine flu' cases in the House this fall - probably about 13 or so.

[punked]

Something tells me there will be a number of 'swine flu' cases in the House this fall - probably about 13 or so.

I have been thinking the samething

[waldo]

Note too that Harper wheeled out Kenney to claim that no compromise between the NDP and the Tories was possible. If a compromise is possible, Harper can step and do it.

Jason kenney Dashes NDP hopes of avoiding an election

we're not for sale to the highest bidder - least of all the NDP

they never deal with real people's money - it's all an abstraction for them

a party of hard-core left-wing ideologues... they drink their own cool aid

damn! Where's the love... that's cold - real cold!

[jdobbin]

Something tells me there will be a number of 'swine flu' cases in the House this fall - probably about 13 or so.

That's how many NDP won't show up to vote?

[OddSox]

That's how many NDP won't show up to vote?

No idea, doesn't really matter.

[jdobbin]

No idea, doesn't really matter.

Oh, I think it does. It doesn't help if it is 13 Tories. ha

Edited September 3, 2009 by jdobbin

[punked]

That's how many NDP won't show up to vote?

HAhahaha ohhhhhh Liberal Dobbin you know the future.

[jdobbin]

damn! Where's the love... that's cold - real cold!

Have you seen this?

[punked]

Have you seen this?

I have seen remember when I called you guys on your "Chicken routine" 4 days ago? You vote for the government 79 times now we are the chickens. It is childish and laughable. I hope this is your campaign. It will work out great for you honestly right from Iggy's republican roots, no policy just name calling.

[madmax]

Have you seen this?

That's powerful.

[jdobbin]

That's powerful.

Layton is just talking about how to avoid an election now.

[madmax]

Election is coming.

NDP indicated they don't support the CPC or their direction

BQ indicated they don't support the CPC or their direction

LPC have choosen to no longer support the CPC.

CPC unlikely to adopt any NDP policies to obtain their support

CPC unlikely to adopt pro Quebec Policies to get BQ support.

The game of chicken is between two parties.

The LPC and the CPC.

If Liberal Non Confidence resolution attacks the NDP in order to get them to not support it, then the LPC will have technically backed off.

But my take is

The die is cast and neither party will adjust the steering wheel.

EDAY IN NOVEMBER>

[Keepitsimple]

Have you seen this?

That is so untrue.....and if it's a Liberal clip, it's disgusting and shameful - because they have proven to be the party of chicken-wimps. Having said that, it's absolutely hilarious.

[jdobbin]

That is so untrue.....and if it's a Liberal clip, it's disgusting and shameful - because they have proven to be the party of chicken-wimps. Having said that, it's absolutely hilarious.

I have no idea who did it. Some Tory supporters on call in shows in this city mentioned it this morning.

I personally don't know how the NDP could support the Tory government nor do I see the Tories doing anything to get that support.

Layton is probably misjudging the base of his party in regards to propping up the Tories. Many of them just don't think a few policies getting passed is enough according to what I was hearing ion radio this morning. They believe Harper has to be removed along with his party.

[punked]

Have you seen this?

He has no idea who posted it but it appeared in Warren Kinsella's blog 15 minutes after being posted..........hmmmmmmmmmm.

[Topaz]

Harper is already in election mode and Wednesday he told an audience, that if there is an election the tax credit for the home reno won't get passed. Read what the Libs had to say about that..... http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories