Tories wonder if Jason Kenney next to lead party

[Alta4ever]

I'm afraid the optics of the Tory attack is anti professional, anti immigrant.

And yet they have not flocked to the Liberal party they in fact those that were not core liberals have not swayed they have stayed with the bloc, the ndp, and the tories. The truth has stopped Ignatieff and the liberals poll numbers, and they have receided from where they were prior to the summer break.

[jdobbin]

And yet they have not flocked to the Liberal party they in fact those that were not core liberals have not swayed they have stayed with the bloc, the ndp, and the tories. The truth has stopped Ignatieff and the liberals poll numbers, and they have receided from where they were prior to the summer break.

What polls are you referring to? The ones that show the Liberals back in the lead again?

[capricorn]

I'm afraid the optics of the Tory attack is anti professional, anti immigrant.

Perhaps through your Liberal lens. Tell me, why hasn't anyone from these professional and immigrant groups come forward to accuse the Tories of attacking their Canadianism because of the ads about Ignatieff's absence from Canada? The accusations are a fabrication of Liberal strategists.

[capricorn]

I think the polls show Canadians distrust all politicians because they play games all the time.

Actually, the polls show that Canadians are not in a great rush to swap a Conservative government for a Liberal government. A parachuted Liberal Messiah or a recession cannot put the party in a solid lead in the polls.

By all means. Make sure to emphasize the "just visiting" campaign even more.

Just visiting puts it mildly. When I think of Ignatieff I think of the term interloper.

Interloper: One that interferes with the affairs of others, often for selfish reasons; a meddler.

http://www.thefreedictionary.com/interloper

[jdobbin]

Perhaps through your Liberal lens. Tell me, why hasn't anyone from these professional and immigrant groups come forward to accuse the Tories of attacking their Canadianism because of the ads about Ignatieff's absence from Canada? The accusations are a fabrication of Liberal strategists.

Maybe they are making their feelings felt by keeping the Tories exactly where they are in the polls. Dead even with the Liberals.

[jdobbin]

Actually, the polls show that Canadians are not in a great rush to swap a Conservative government for a Liberal government. A parachuted Liberal Messiah or a recession cannot put the party in a solid lead in the polls.

How long does one have to be in the country before they are no longer regarded as an outsider? Give me a ballpark figure.

[punked]

Maybe they are making their feelings felt by keeping the Tories exactly where they are in the polls. Dead even with the Liberals.

Just like they were under Dion. How did that work out?

[jdobbin]

Just like they were under Dion. How did that work out?

Dion was way down in the polls much of the time. The Tories just couldn't crack the 40% mark to assure their majority.

[punked]

Dion was way down in the polls much of the time. The Tories just couldn't crack the 40% mark to assure their majority.

Not in the least. His Last summer as leader he was pulling the same numbers Iggy is right now how soon we forget.

Date Bloc Cons Green Lib NDP

2008.08.27 8 33 7 35 17 Nanos Research

2008.08.24 9 33 11 34 15 Harris-Decima

2008.08.14 9 36 10 30 14 Ipsos Reid

2008.08.10 6 32 13 33 15 Harris-Decima

2008.07.31 9 34 11 30 14 Ipsos Reid

2008.07.30 9 35 8 30 17 Angus Reid Strategies

2008.07.10 11 33 10 32 13 Ipsos Reid

2008.06.29 10 30 12 31 16 Harris-Decima

2008.06.24 9 33 7 30 19 Angus Reid Strategies

2008.06.09 10 32 10 30 18 Strategic Counsel

2008.06.08 6 32 12 31 15 Harris-Decima

I honestly tired to make that table look better but I couldn't

Edited August 4, 2009 by punked

[jdobbin]

Not in the least. His Last summer as leader he was pulling the same numbers Iggy is right now how soon we forget.

I honestly tired to make that table look better but I couldn't

Here is the table you are looking for.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polli..._election,_2008

It is a pretty pathetic 26% average for the Liberals and a 37% average for the Tories from 2006 to the election.

The Liberals have been fairing at least 4% higher since the change.

[Keepitsimple]

I figure he has this one election left and if he can't deliver a majority, it will be the last one. You think differently?

Very differently. I'll keep telling you - probably for the next ten years - it's just about impossible to get a majority the way things are right now. Harper himself will be quite satisfied to head a fairly strong minority government for the foreseeable future. He's only 50 years old - a very young man in politics. He loves his job and unlike the Liberals under Chretien and Martin, there is no division infecting the party due to various leadership aspirations.

[jdobbin]

Very differently. I'll keep telling you - probably for the next ten years - it's just about impossible to get a majority the way things are right now. Harper himself will be quite satisfied to head a fairly strong minority government for the foreseeable future. He's only 50 years old - a very young man in politics. He loves his job and unlike the Liberals under Chretien and Martin, there is no division infecting the party due to various leadership aspirations.

I think you have it right when you say "the way things are now." It is why after the next election, the party will see if a change in leadership is something they should consider. If the Tories go down in seats, I expect that change will be pushed hard.

[Smallc]

Dobbin, I can't believe that you think the Conservatives will look to oust a sitting Prime Minister from their own party. The Conservatives will certainly lose seats, and the Liberals will certainly gain some. I don't expect that either of the leaders will be gone after the next election.

[jdobbin]

Dobbin, I can't believe that you think the Conservatives will look to oust a sitting Prime Minister from their own party. The Conservatives will certainly lose seats, and the Liberals will certainly gain some. I don't expect that either of the leaders will be gone after the next election.

The party that doesn't look to succession ultimately will fight with itself. Witness the Liberals under Chretien.

It is something the Tories have faced as well.

It will be hard to regard it as a victory if the Tories lose seats in the next election. Harper himself may deduce that a change is needed.

[Smallc]

I can see Harper leaving. I can't see him being forced out just yet.

[punked]

Very differently. I'll keep telling you - probably for the next ten years - it's just about impossible to get a majority the way things are right now. Harper himself will be quite satisfied to head a fairly strong minority government for the foreseeable future. He's only 50 years old - a very young man in politics. He loves his job and unlike the Liberals under Chretien and Martin, there is no division infecting the party due to various leadership aspirations.

I think Harper will play up his youth next election. Iggy is 61 now maybe 62 by the time next election comes which is still young for politics but it is old compared to Harper.

[punked]

The party that doesn't look to succession ultimately will fight with itself. Witness the Liberals under Chretien.

It is something the Tories have faced as well.

It will be hard to regard it as a victory if the Tories lose seats in the next election. Harper himself may deduce that a change is needed.

The Liberals under Chretien were too successful that was their problem. They thought they would always be in power and that is what caused the fights. Why not tear the party apart to be the next PM cause no one else in the world could be it because it was permit Liberal majority for the forseeable future.

It has nothing to with not looking it successful it was they were too successful. That is what will keep the Conservatives together is they know the Liberals are the base party in Canada and they have to fight to convince Liberals not too vote.

[jdobbin]

I can see Harper leaving. I can't see him being forced out just yet.

As noted, it is contingent on losing seats in an election. If you're not moving forward, you are moving backward and it is likely the view will be that some sort of change is necessary.

[punked]

As noted, it is contingent on losing seats in an election. If you're not moving forward, you are moving backward and it is likely the view will be that some sort of change is necessary.

Martin lost seats and no one went for him at the time, Chretien lost seats, Trudeau lost seat, King lost seats, it happens.

[jdobbin]

Martin lost seats and no one went for him at the time, Chretien lost seats, Trudeau lost seat, King lost seats, it happens.

You forget that one election loss is usually built into the contract the party has with a leader (except for Dion). Harper has been at it for some time now. A reduction in seats can't be blamed on the previous leader.

[fellowtraveller]

Tories wonder if Jason Kenney next to lead party

Actually, they don't.

Unless you now are pretending to be a Tory yourself.

[fellowtraveller]

How long does one have to be in the country before they are no longer regarded as an outsider? Give me a ballpark figure.

How about 15% of your adult life?

[Moonbox]

How long does one have to be in the country before they are no longer regarded as an outsider? Give me a ballpark figure.

Yeah I meant to respond to this sooner. It's kind of hard to give a solid figure but if you've only been back in Canada for a few years and the past 20-30 years were spent outside of Canada, it's probably safe to say that you're far removed from what we'd typically call Canadian. It's kind of hard for a lot of people to believe that a potential leader really has his interests vested in Canada when he's not lived here in forever.

If he'd been here for say 5-10 years before running for the leadership maybe it would be more believable, but the fact that he was parachuted into the position shortly after returning kind of indicates why he came back in the first place.

[jdobbin]

Actually, they don't.

Unless you now are pretending to be a Tory yourself.

That was the headline. If you don't like it, talk to CTV. Maybe they are Tories.

[jdobbin]

How about 15% of your adult life?

So, the door really is closed to returned professionals and recent immigrants.