The End of Canada...

[August1991]

This Sponsorship Scandal appears to reflect a divide, a Civil War, within the Federal Liberal Party. Jeffrey Simpson has wondered why Martin continues to fight when he's already won.

The obvious answer is that Canada has had too many plasters, Band-Aids, duct-tape solutions over the past 30 years or so. We are watching the safety pins snapping open. This is no Federal Liberal Civil War. This is an inevitable collapse of the deals done to make Canada exist.

Ouellette and Pelletier are the ugly, last remnants of the old, urbane,snobbish Lalonde and Hébert school of federalism. Les Collèges classiques d'antan n'existent plus.

The last few buttons are about to pop. Quebec reaction to this scandal and Quebec provincial polls reflect something much more serious. Maybe a Charest or a Facal or a Serge Menard can at this late date put this one back on track. I doubt it.

Canadians are desperately in denial (despite being so close to the precipice before).

In August 1991, Gorbachev returned to Moscow from the Crimea and thought the Soviet Union was still intact. Instead, it had only a few months of life.

[Michael Hardner]

You seem to imply that the style of government executed by the previous PM will inevitably result in the dissolution of the Dominion.

I think you need to connect the dots a bit more to explain exactly how that's going to happen. If the end is nigh, it's coming at a time when the idea of a strong government presence is less than fashionable anyhow.

Canada can surely continue to exist as a geographic region at least.

[maplesyrup]

Can you imagine what would be happening now if the PQ was in power in Quebec? Timing is everything in politics. It seems Canada was spoiled with Trudeau. Maybe Layton will be able to pick up the slack.

[August1991]

You seem to imply that the style of government executed by the previous PM will inevitably result in the dissolution of the Dominion.

Previous PM only? No.

The Demise of Canada has been forecasted more often than the Death of Separatism. One wanders carefully into this field of Canadian political history. (BTW, advising young Canadians to read Grant's "Lament for a Nation" is much, much better than advising them to read Chomsky.)

It seems to me there is something afoot. PM PM has shunted Dion aside and recruited Lapierre. But I think there's more. Given his handling of this scandal, PM PM implicitly agrees with Parizeau. "Federalists bought the vote."

PM PM has chosen this "Mulroney, special status" role and not the "Trudeau, hard-line federalist" role. Why?

For starters, there's no old-style federalist Trudeau to call Martin's bluff, and call him a "poltroon". But I think there's more. Trudeau could play the hard-line federalist and get all 75 seats in Quebec. Chretien could play the same role and get at best 36 seats of 75 in 2000.

Martin, the Federal Liberal PM, was worried.

I think Canada is about to undergo a fundamental change. Have no fear! We Canadians will show the world how to change in a civilized manner.

[maplesyrup]

PM Martin has a plan to take people's mind off the sponsorship scandal and rebound the Liberals in the polls. It is called the Healthcare file. One little problem. He is prepared to dish out lots of money to the provinces but he wants national standards adhered to in the process. No tickee, no washee. It is going to be a barnburner of an election.

Article

[willy]

If PM PM runs on health care, they will loose. After the Romano Report, Mazinkowski Report and the Kirby Report there is no need for talk. They have many actions they could take and empower the provinces to deal with the problems now. We need help on health care now not after anther four year process.

As for accountability they have set up a national council.

They announced a $2 billion increase in health care spending 8 times is the last year and a half and money is still not forthcoming.

After seeing the cost overruns on the gun registry, HRDC, and the bad contracts with the unity project and the defense department the last thing I want is for the federal government to micro manage health care.

I hope this will be his platform because then we will get a government we deserve, a new one.

[Michael Hardner]

I hope this will be his platform because then we will get a government we deserve, a new one.

Willy - I'm still trying to figure out how you think this can happen without support from the Bloc. The CPC will not be asked to form a government unless they can survive a confidence vote.

[playfullfellow]

The biggest change that could happen is that we see the government getting decentralized but I just do not see the writting on the wall of that. It appears that the opposite is happening where the feds are trying to take more power away from the provinces. Everyone is talking the talk about changing big government but no one is walking that way, running the other way maybe. I also do not feel there will be any significant changes until parliment can free votes on all bills. Now that would be a change that might actually affect the way see politics in this country. Also, with the voter turn out at election times being below 50%, there is little hope of change. The government knows that the majority of people are just armchair critics.

[August1991]

If PM PM runs on health care, they will lose.

I agree. IF PM PM runs on anything, the Liberals will lose. The only question now is whether they will lose more in the Spring or more in the Fall.

[Can I add another point? The Liberals lose by waiting because they appear weak. Historically, the Liberals win because they seem inevitable.]

The biggest change that could happen is that we see the government getting decentralized

Decentralized?

Martin has killed the Federal Liberal party in Quebec. I don't know why he did it, but he did. The only Liberals to be elected in Quebec will come from ridings in English Montreal and west Quebec (Hull). About 20 or so. The other 50 or so seats will be BQ.

Is this the death of Canada? Certainly not.

The "gestation" of the US Civil War took some 40 years (the Missouri Compromise dated from 1820. Lévesque formed the Parti Québécois in 1968.) Since Laurier, the federal Liberals have alternated English/French leaders. Laurier, King, St-Laurent, Pearson, Trudeau, Turner, Chretien, Martin. (Martin is considered English, which he is). The French hand-off to an English leader is delicate.

And according to Elisabeth Kübler-Ross, and popularized by Bob Fosse, there are five stages to death: denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance. English-Canadians are in the first three stages: English Liberals more in stage one, Tories more in stage two and three.

A country is NOT a person. We Canadians manage well, I figure that we Canadians will always be polite, and I'm anxious to see what this Harper fellow does.

[playfullfellow]

August1991

Decentralized?

Martin has killed the Federal Liberal party in Quebec. I don't know why he did it, but he did. The only Liberals to be elected in Quebec will come from ridings in English Montreal and west Quebec (Hull). About 20 or so. The other 50 or so seats will be BQ.

Is this the death of Canada? Certainly not.

I didn't imply that decentralizing the government of Canada is the death of Canada. Chages are happening all the time. Change is not necessarily bad. People seem to think that if Canada changes, then it will die. That is just old school talking, in my mind, Canada needs to change to stay alive.

[August1991]

Change is not necessarily bad. People seem to think that if Canada changes, then it will die. That is just old school talking, in my mind, Canada needs to change to stay alive.

There is change, and then there is change.

Right or wrong, I think this place called Canada, you know, the big pink splotch on the map, is in for a big change in the coming few years.

Here's a link: Paul Wells 19 April 2004 (Skip Down to: "Dept. of Credit Where It's Rumoured to be Due")

In my mind, this Martin Debacle (and his recruitment of Lapierre), the Denial of the Referendum Result, the Lousy Polls of Charest, the Alberta/Steyn/Canadian Right Idea that it's all a bluff are elements of a single picture.

If I am right, and the next few years mean dramatic changes, I think English Canada would do well to have a genuine representative. (I have suspicion that it will have one.)

I have no idea the outcome except that it will be achieved peacefully. We Canadians are far more civilized than those violent Europeans.

[maplesyrup]

Tonite though everything is cool in Quebec. The habs won.

[August1991]

Indeed. They're honking horns now. (I paid attention to the first period. Not bad hockey.)

[maplesyrup]

We need another federalist provincial party in Quebec. The Quebec Liberals are just not cutting it.

[maplesyrup]

I have no idea the outcome except that it will be achieved peacefully. We Canadians are far more civilized than those violent Europeans.

Are we really?

I think if there had been one vote more than 50% oui, for les Independentistes in 1995, we could have seen some violence, not necessarily civil war.

[August1991]

I think if there had been one vote more than 50% oui, for les Independentistes in 1995, we could have seen some violence, not necessarily civil war.

There was in effect one vote more for the No but there was no violence. Are you suggesting that federalists are more violent than separatists?

Europeans are uncivilized and tend to slaughter each other wantonly. This is not ancient history. Such violence in Europe occurred as recently as 10 years ago.

We North Americans (Canadians and Americans) are much more civilized. One has to go back to the US Civil War to find anything nearly as bloody as a European war.

Quebec separatists have made it plain that this problem will be dealt with in a civilized manner.

[maplesyrup]

Canadians have had some recent internal violence or have you forgotten all about the 60s & 70s (October crisis). Trudeau put an end to it with the War Measures Act.

Unfortunately There are a few lunatics (violent types) in every community.

BTW did you read article Of Bastards & Boneheads recently in Wpeg Free Press?

Popular attitudes to party leaders will play an important role.

Some have suggested that sentiments about leaders have now surpassed sentiments toward parties as a means of making a voting decision. Certainly, many voters do use such terms as "I used to vote for Trudeau" or "I couldn't ever vote Tory with Mulroney in there."

Will Ferguson, the Canadian humourist, has argued that political leaders in this country generally fall into either of two categories: They are either bastards or boneheads. A bastard is a strong, decisive leader with a clear sense of vision. Boneheads are the reverse. He places Macdonald and Trudeau in the bastard category. Joe Clark he assigns to the bonehead pile. Brian Mulroney, he says, was both a bastard and a bonehead.

It is not yet possible to assign the three current leaders to an appropriate category, since none of them has led his party into battle before. But all three seem to fit the contemporary mould. They are all white, male, university-educated professionals at various stages of middle age. Whether or not this should condemn them to be denounced as "men in suits," we cannot tell, having had limited experience with politically motivated clothing. But all three have made statements they would probably prefer to ta ke back, since they were, well, bonehaded.

Media coverage of the leaders will be vital, and it's likely that both Martin and Harper will experience some difficulty in winning favourable attention. Layton will do well, since he is gregarious and chatty, and because nobody expects him to win. Thus, his policies will escape the detailed scrutiny those of his rivals will receive, and it will be agreed, at the close, that he "ran a good campaign."

In the presence of widespread ignorance about the three, TV debates (or what passes for debates) will assume some importance. Martin will, at the outset, enjoy the benefits of prime ministerial status, but will disappoint. He is not especially articulate, and has a tendency to hem and haw. Harper and Layton, particularly the former, will be judged to have done well, the beneficiaries of low expectations.