Ipsos: Grits 35, Tories 28, NDP 18, Bloc 10

[Goldie]

The Tories and Martin Liberals have nearly identicle platforms. Why reach out to fringe parties when you can achieve a right of center policy for the nation through co-operation of the above. I can see Paul and Stephen holding a press conference and stating that they will work together to do the RIGHT thing for Canada. " This is not a coalition but rather, co-operation. Co-operation to do what Canadians expect and have demanded by virtue of the results of the last election."

This would be the least offensive to Canadians and offend the fewest number of members in respective parties. Martin didn't kill the left wing Liberals only to cozy up to the more left NDP. It matters not who gets more seats because each would need the other. Except to designate who is the PM.

[Michael Hardner]

"After the posts from Willy and Goldie I'm starting to wonder what "failure" entails. They seem to think that Harper could sustain a minority government without the aid of the Bloc somehow."

I don't see any of these parties holding a coalition government for long. But if they did…..

The goal for me as a Conservative would be to form government. The challenge is for the Liberals members that are closer to the Conservative agenda. Will they vote for a reasonable bill put forward by the Conservatives?

Maybe you don't know how a minority government works. The Conservatives would need to survive a vote of confidence in order for them to form the government in the first place, I believe. A Liberal that supported such a vote would effectively be crossing the floor.

The policy that the Conservatives bring forward in a minority government would be consolatory. The priorities would have to reflect the common areas of concern.

If the Conservatives form a minority, how will the Canadian public digest that prospect if the Liberals force a premature election? The Liberals may find themselves shortly after opposing a majority government.

Well, as I said above they'd have to have something to start with or there would immediately be a second election.

The Liberals have been able to vilify the Reform, then Alliance, and now they are trying to do the same to Conservatives. The difference is the Tories are united and the Liberals have done themselves in with arrogance. Given the chance Ontario will warm up even more to the alternative.

They would need to vote about 50% of the seats to the Conservatives in order for this to happen, ie. for a majority to happen. It could happen but it's a tall order.

NDP is a useful rump for debate but they will not factor in to any real change. The Liberal PMO will not go with an anti American agenda, anti defense and a spend and tax philosophy.

Well, the anti-American stuff is largely symbolic anyway. Martin could call for non-essential free votes on these issues. And the spend-and-tax issues could be resolved as they have been with minority governments in the past.

[August1991]

I can see Paul and Stephen holding a press conference and stating that they will work together to do the RIGHT thing for Canada. " This is not a coalition but rather, co-operation.

Impossible. More chance of Kerry being Bush Jnr's running mate.

The Conservatives would need to survive a vote of confidence in order for them to form the government in the first place, I believe.

That's the key question in all scenarios - but it would only be the start of the roller coaster ride for Harper or Martin.

Consider: only Harper and Martin will be asked to form a government. And either of these two will have to go to the House and survive a vote of confidence. So, any realistic scenario must include who will support whom in a vote. Bear in mind that voting against may precipitate another election.

Harper and Duceppe would have to come to an agreement to frame any agreement around "provincial rights"...  But the grassroots for those parties would cry bloody murder.

First, I figure that a Liberal/BQ dealie is almost impossible. The federal Quebec Liberal MPs (there'll be about 20-25) would desert Martin if he sought BQ support. Or, if Martin managed it, the Federal Liberals would be something entirely new.

Second, a Tory/BQ agreement would have to be tacit, and surprisingly honest. One has to understand why the BQ members are in a Federal Parliament. It would amount to the Tories taking each vote as it comes at them. Harper would have to negotiate wording and understand what works. In some cases, the NDP or even Liberals might support a Harper government.

In minority situations, the fear of an election and the potential loss of a seat usually keeps members in line.

[maplesyrup]

If there is a minority government, what is the actual process?

Does the party with the most number of seats have the right to attempt to govern first?

If the initial party loses a vote of confidence, who decides if we have another election, or if another party gets a chance to govern?

Is all this a custom, or is it documented in legislation?

[August1991]

Where is Eugene Forsey when you need him?

My understanding is that the GG asks (step one) the leader with most seats to form a gov't. BUT the current (previous) PM could insist first on going to the House to see if he (she?) "still" has support. If this happens, and it fails, the GG goes back to step one before calling a new election.

In 1957, 1962, 1963 and 1965, the guy with the most seats got first dibs. In 1972, Trudeau stayed PM. In 1979, Trudeau did not contest Clark.