A Poor Republican Performance In Upstate New York

[jdobbin]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/.../04/post_3.html

Far more damning is that Republicans represent nearly all of the district at the state level. It is kind of an inversion of MS-01, which leans heavily Republican at the national level, but is much more competitive for more localized elections. This is still a Republican-leaning district, and it is exactly the type of district Republicans will have to win if they are going to be competitive in 2010.

Even worse, it appears the Republicans would have been in worse shape but for the home base of their candidate. In 2006, Gillibrand won the district by about 6 percentage points, meaning that Tedisco needed overperform then-Rep John Sweeney's 2006 performance by four points on average to win.

He managed this in only two counties: Rensselaer and Saratoga counties. In several counties, he actually did worse than Sweeney did while Sweeney was losing by six points. What has kept Tedisco in the race was that Saratoga and neighboring Rensselaer counties are the most populous counties in the district, and most importantly, Saratoga is Tedisco's home base in the state legislature. This suggests that if you remove Tedisco's constituent service base and years of goodwill accumulated in the legislature, you have a wider Democratic win than occurred in 2006, when Gillibrand was challenging a deeply damaged incumbent in a terrible year for the GOP.

We won't know for some time about this election but as the article says, the Republican had pinned a lot of hopes on this fight and performed poorly.

You can bet had they were in the lead, they would be trumpeting the fact but it still shows that a lot of people are not buying what they are selling.

[kimmy]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/.../04/post_3.html

We won't know for some time about this election but as the article says, the Republican had pinned a lot of hopes on this fight and performed poorly.

You can bet had they were in the lead, they would be trumpeting the fact but it still shows that a lot of people are not buying what they are selling.

Didn't Kirsten Gillebrand win this seat in a landslide in the general election?

Given that they got stomped last time, and that it's heavily Democrat country, the expectations may not have been very realistic.

-k

[jdobbin]

Given that they got stomped last time, and that it's heavily Democrat country, the expectations may not have been very realistic.

As the article points out, it is not heavily Democratic country. It should be a riding that the Republicans could win.

[kimmy]

As the article points out, it is not heavily Democratic country. It should be a riding that the Republicans could win.

I just skimmed it; I hear New York and think Democrats reflexively.

Nonetheless, the fact that he mentioned that Gillebrand won by 6% in 2006, but neglects to mention that she won by 30% just a couple of months ago gives the impression that he's got an axe to grind of some sort.

-k

[punked]

Didn't Kirsten Gillebrand win this seat in a landslide in the general election?

Given that they got stomped last time, and that it's heavily Democrat country, the expectations may not have been very realistic.

-k

Gillebrand was running against a guy who beat his wife. She had money and she is conservative for a NY Dem. Scott Murphey running against the State Republican leader, who out spent him and went into the Race with a 21 POINT LEAD, and Scott is a true blue liberal. STOP WITH THE STUIPD SPIN. Do you think a district with 70 000 more registered republicans is a Democratic district you look stupid saying these things. PS I gave Scott 25 dollars and I happy it went to good use.

[Shady]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/.../04/post_3.html

We won't know for some time about this election but as the article says, the Republican had pinned a lot of hopes on this fight and performed poorly.

You can bet had they were in the lead, they would be trumpeting the fact but it still shows that a lot of people are not buying what they are selling.

That's complete and utter nonsense. New York went for Obama by 30 points, and that so-called Republican district went for Obama by 4 points. You have a popular President, who endorsed Scott Murphy, and they ran ads on radio and teleivision broadcasting that fact. And what did it get them? So far nothing. In fact......

Tedisco Now Leading By 12!

Link

[punked]

That's complete and utter nonsense. New York went for Obama by 30 points, and that so-called Republican district went for Obama by 4 points. You have a popular President, who endorsed Scott Murphy, and they ran ads on radio and teleivision broadcasting that fact. And what did it get them? So far nothing. In fact......

Tedisco Now Leading By 12!

Link

HAHAHA keep celebrating losing a 21% LEAD when you started. Terrible spin to draw attention to this race.

[sharkman]

HAHAHA keep celebrating losing a 21% LEAD when you started. Terrible spin to draw attention to this race.

Said by the Obamabot who can't see that Obama's numbers have been falling since Jan 20.

[jdobbin]

That's complete and utter nonsense. New York went for Obama by 30 points, and that so-called Republican district went for Obama by 4 points. You have a popular President, who endorsed Scott Murphy, and they ran ads on radio and teleivision broadcasting that fact. And what did it get them? So far nothing. In fact......

As I said, the Republicans would be trumpeting this if the lead was different.

I'll wait for the rest of the ballots to be cast. Just as people waited for the ballots in Minnesota. Now we have Republican judges saying they would hold up that decision for years. Probably not a good idea since Governor Pawlenty may take heat and ruoin his chances in the next election.

[Shady]

If you were intellectually honest, this thread should be re-titled 'Dismal Democrat Performance In Upstate New York.' If a Democrat, in a state that went for Obama by 30%, and from district that went for Obama by 4%, who received an endorsement from a President with a 60% approval rating, can't win, then you know there's a problem. This should have been a pretty smooth victory, but just goes to show that Obamanomics isn't sitting well with many Americans.

Do you think Reagan would have lost a seat in a Republican state a few months after his landslide in '84? I don't think so.

[jdobbin]

If you were intellectually honest, this thread should be re-titled 'Dismal Democrat Performance In Upstate New York.'

I quoted the title of the article. No changes. You can take it up with Politico.

If a Democrat, in a state that went for Obama by 30%, and from district that went for Obama by 4%, who received an endorsement from a President with a 60% approval rating, can't win, then you know there's a problem. This should have been a pretty smooth victory, but just goes to show that Obamanomics isn't sitting well with many Americans.

It is a riding the Republicans generally expect to run well in. Several analysts have already said that this.

Do you think Reagan would have lost a seat in a Republican state a few months after his landslide in '84? I don't think so.

You make out that states are completely for one party or not. They aren't.

By the way, Murphy is back in the lead.

[punked]

Shady you are just lieing through your teeth. Your guys blew a 21 point lead. Tedisco was polling in the high 60's at one point, your party imploded and now they look silly. You look silly for pretending this is some sort of victory.

[Shady]

Shady you are just lieing through your teeth.

Exactly what have I lied about? And btw, I don't usually care much about spelling, since I make all kinds of mistakes, but lying isn't spelled lieing. Geez.

Your guys blew a 21 point lead. Tedisco was polling in the high 60's at one point, your party imploded and now they look silly. You look silly for pretending this is some sort of victory.

If he wins, it's a victory. That's the very definition of victory, winning. And yes, he had a big lead, but that was before the real campaign started, and had more to do with name recognition. And it was before Obama's endorsement, etc.

Also, the absentee-ballot numbers look great for Tedisco!

According to absentee-ballot numbers I received last night: in Warren, Republicans returned 569 of 764 ballots while Democrats returned only 316 of 437, with 113 of 205 “other” ballots returned. I suppose the Democrat could pick up votes, but he’d have to overcome a tremendous differential in party identification of the returned absentee ballots — 569 vs. 316, or 57% vs. 31%. … Likewise in Washington, where the Democrats’ projection is a pick up of 70 votes, Tedisco has an advantage of 315 vs. 187 in returned absentee ballots (62% vs. 37%). …

Columbia is a more plausible source of votes for Murphy, who enjoys an advantage of 472 to 242 returned ballots over Republicans, and who won that county 56-44%. But aside from a tiny margin in Duchess County, Columbia is the only county where Democrats enjoy an advantage in the percentage of returned absentees or the total absentee ballots sent out.

But the real kicker is in Saratoga. The latest figures there were 1,731 ballots returned, 922 of which were Republican and 502 Democratic (53% vs. 29%), with the remainder “other .” That is a very big chunk of the absentees, about one third. Tedisco won that county by a 54-46% margin.

Link

Now, that being said, who knows what the numbers will look like, once ACORN and other Democrat vote stealing groups assend on NY for the absentee ballot count.

[punked]

Exactly what have I lied about? And btw, I don't usually care much about spelling, since I make all kinds of mistakes, but lying isn't spelled lieing. Geez.

If he wins, it's a victory. That's the very definition of victory, winning. And yes, he had a big lead, but that was before the real campaign started, and had more to do with name recognition. And it was before Obama's endorsement, etc.

Also, the absentee-ballot numbers look great for Tedisco!

According to absentee-ballot numbers I received last night: in Warren, Republicans returned 569 of 764 ballots while Democrats returned only 316 of 437, with 113 of 205 “other” ballots returned. I suppose the Democrat could pick up votes, but he’d have to overcome a tremendous differential in party identification of the returned absentee ballots — 569 vs. 316, or 57% vs. 31%. … Likewise in Washington, where the Democrats’ projection is a pick up of 70 votes, Tedisco has an advantage of 315 vs. 187 in returned absentee ballots (62% vs. 37%). …

Columbia is a more plausible source of votes for Murphy, who enjoys an advantage of 472 to 242 returned ballots over Republicans, and who won that county 56-44%. But aside from a tiny margin in Duchess County, Columbia is the only county where Democrats enjoy an advantage in the percentage of returned absentees or the total absentee ballots sent out.

But the real kicker is in Saratoga. The latest figures there were 1,731 ballots returned, 922 of which were Republican and 502 Democratic (53% vs. 29%), with the remainder “other .” That is a very big chunk of the absentees, about one third. Tedisco won that county by a 54-46% margin.

Link

Now, that being said, who knows what the numbers will look like, once ACORN and other Democrat vote stealing groups assend on NY for the absentee ballot count.

You do know those absentee break up up has a higher favor, or higher percentage of Dems then the actual election did right? That means more Dems and Less Republcians voted absentee then the actual election, how is that good for Tedisco?

[punked]

Scott picks up another 200 votes

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/04...ixes-errors.php

[punked]

Columbia County, which gave the Democrat 56% of the vote, cast 9.8% of the district's votes last Tuesday; but 15,3% of the absentee ballots come from there!

Two other counties that gave Murphy 56% are over-represented. Warren County and Washington County represented 10% and 8,1% of last Tuesday's districtwide, respectively; but they make up 15% and 9,2% of the incoming absentee ballots!

Inversely, Saratoga County, which saved Tedisco's candidacy by giving him 54% of the vote, represented 36% of the districtwide vote last Tuesday. Now, only 27% of absentee ballots come from Saratoga - a sharp drop.

Let's put this otherwise: Murphy is winning Columbia County and Warren County by 12%; he is losing Saratoga by 8%. Last Tuesday, Columbia and Warren combined made up 20% of the districtwide vote, while Saratoga made up 36%. Now, there are more absentee ballots from Warren and Columbia combined than from Saratoga.

Tell me again Shady how this is good for Teddy Disco?????

Edited April 7, 2009 by punked

[jdobbin]

Murphy takes 8-vote lead in New York 20

http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/04...ew_York_20.html

At Thursday's close, Democrat Scott Murphy had an 8-vote lead in the New York 20th District special election.

According to unofficial combined canvass results released by the state board of elections, Murphy has 77,590 votes to 77,582 votes for Republican Jim Tedisco.

Four counties don’t appear to have submitted any paper ballot counts to the state yet—Essex, Saratoga, Warren and Washington.

Going to go down the wire on this.

[punked]

Murphy up by 46 votes with around 50 votes legal votes cast by Democrats in Columbus in limbo because of Teddy Disco's challenges. So we are looking at a real 100 vote lead if not more.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/04...s-right-now.php

[jdobbin]

Latest count:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/04...er_Tedisco.html

Democrat Scott Murphy has expanded his lead to 168 votes over Republican Jim Tedisco in the New York special election, according to this morning’s tally from the state Board of Elections.

More to come.

[punked]

Latest count:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/04...er_Tedisco.html

More to come.

The best part is Teddy Disco Challenging the newest Senator of New York, and whose seat he is trying to fill's ballot.

[jdobbin]

Latest count this Friday:

http://www.bizjournals.com/albany/stories/...13/daily41.html

Murphy, of Glens Falls, is now ahead of Republican James Tedisco, of Glenville, by 264 votes. The two are vying for a U.S. House of Representatives district that covers part or all of six area counties.

Still more to come.

[punked]

Teddy Disco is 250 votes behind but today he asked the NY courts to declare him the winner. Want to tell how that makes sense Shady?

[jdobbin]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/04...hy.html?showall

Tedisco concedes to Murphy

Republican state Assemblyman Jim Tedisco conceded the New York special election this afternoon to Democratic businessman Scott Murphy, giving the Democrats a key off-year victory in a race that both parties aggressively contested.

Tedisco called to congratulate Murphy on his victory earlier this afternoon, according to a Democratic official familiar with the call.

“Earlier today, I called and congratulated Scott Murphy on a hard-fought contest and wished him well as the next Congressman of the 20th Congressional district," Tedisco said in a statement.

Now when will will Coleman concede?