Homless Cons

[Smallc]

Yup. I suppose that could be said of just about every regular poster here.

True for the most part.

[jdobbin]

Just before the last election, dobbin predicted the Liberals would be decimated.

Based on how prepared the Liberals were in policy, money and organization, the election should have been more than enough for the Tories to take a majority. Of course, you fail to mention the addendum I had to my prediction: I said that a major event or misplay during the election itself could affect Tory fortunes. My example was something like a raid on Tory headquarters or the economy.

I also mentioned the BQ.

In the end the economy and the BQ were the reasons that Harper failed to capture a sweeping majority.

He is elated at his party's recent positive polling and disbelief that the Liberals are coming to back to life.

At this time, I still think the Tories would win an election if it were held today. The polling is about what is has mostly been since 2006 nationally.

Not surprisingly, his anti-Conservative posts contain an elan not seen in a while. Very predictable behaviour.

What is predictable is Tories personalizing their posts to individuals.

Edited April 11, 2009 by jdobbin

[jbg]

Based on how prepared the Liberals were in policy, money and organization, the election should have been more than enough for the Tories to take a majority.

Your predictions were similar to the "Harper, scary" theme.

Of course, you fail to mention the addendum I had to my prediction: I said that a major event or misplay during the election itself could affect Tory fortunes. My example was something like a raid on Tory headquarters or the economy.

I also mentioned the BQ.

In the end the economy and the BQ were the reasons that Harper failed to capture a sweeping majority.

True enough but the Bloc is a constant 38-58 ridings that makes it almost impossible for any non-Quebecker, or even Quebecker Anglophone such as Martin to gain a majority.

At this time, I still think the Tories would win an election if it were held today. The polling is about what is has mostly been since 2006 nationally.

Quite true, likely.

What is predictable is Tories personalizing their posts to individuals.

As if your having me on "ignore" isn't the same?

[Smallc]

True enough but the Bloc is a constant 38-58 ridings that makes it almost impossible for any non-Quebecker, or even Quebecker Anglophone such as Martin to gain a majority.

That had very little to do with Martin's inability to win a majority.

[benny]

True enough but the Bloc is a constant 38-58 ridings that makes it almost impossible for any non-Quebecker, or even Quebecker Anglophone such as Martin to gain a majority.

Brigitte and John Robson are homeless conservatives because the CPC has substituted that kind of tactical considerations to matter of principles (balanced budget, prioritizing the armed forces, etc.).

[Vancouver King]

I also mentioned the BQ.

In the end the economy and the BQ were the reasons that Harper failed to capture a sweeping majority.

Not exactly. The timing of the last election was decided in order to avoid the beginnings of recession and it's expected fallout for the govt. The economy would have been a far bigger factor if held in, say, January.

Harper's dumb attempt at playing to his core by cutting pocket change off arts funding and the subsequent furor in Quebec prevented any gains there and rates as a huge reason Conservatives failed to win their cherished majority. The BQ were merely beneficiaries of this Harper mistake.

At this time, I still think the Tories would win an election if it were held today. The polling is about what is has mostly been since 2006 nationally.

You can't be serious. Recent polling consistently shows Harper in deep trouble in Quebec with experts like Chantal Hebert now predicting probable loss of all CPC seats there. La belle province is the least of Tory worries with party support now in freefall in Ontario - trailing Liberals by 13% in the latest sounding.

What campaign strengths can Harper field in order to "win an election if it were held today"?

Of your many skills and contributions, Dobbin, predicting election outcomes is not one of them.

[jbg]

What campaign strengths can Harper field in order to "win an election if it were held today"?

Of your many skills and contributions, Dobbin, predicting election outcomes is not one of them.

Then why hasn't the LPC pulled the plug?

[benny]

Then why hasn't the LPC pulled the plug?

Because the LPC still show some respect for Canadians.

[jdobbin]

Not exactly. The timing of the last election was decided in order to avoid the beginnings of recession and it's expected fallout for the govt. The economy would have been a far bigger factor if held in, say, January.

I realize that the Tories thought that their timing was best suited to win a majority but in fact growing evidence about what was happening in 2008 made people question the optimism of Tory forecasts. It affected polling numbers to be sure and the Liberals were able to focus their campaign strategy on that instead of their green plan. It probably spared the Liberals complete devastation.

Harper's dumb attempt at playing to his core by cutting pocket change off arts funding and the subsequent furor in Quebec prevented any gains there and rates as a huge reason Conservatives failed to win their cherished majority. The BQ were merely beneficiaries of this Harper mistake.

I've said it back then and I have been saying it for years: The BQ generally run solid campaigns in an election. For whatever mistakes they make, they seem to be able to counter the national parties when they need to which is an voting day.

You can't be serious. Recent polling consistently shows Harper in deep trouble in Quebec with experts like Chantal Hebert now predicting probable loss of all CPC seats there. La belle province is the least of Tory worries with party support now in freefall in Ontario - trailing Liberals by 13% in the latest sounding.

The Bloc seems better positioned to make inroads on a lot of the Tory seats in Quebec.

As for Ontario, the numbers remain volatile. It will be a seat by seat battle and I still don't think that the Liberals have enough solid organization, funds or policy to win if the election were to be held today.

What campaign strengths can Harper field in order to "win an election if it were held today"?

Money, organization and more fleshed out policies. The Liberals are doing better on the first two but have not done much on the last area.

A poorly run campaign would likely repeat what we saw last election.

Of your many skills and contributions, Dobbin, predicting election outcomes is not one of them.

I said from 2006 on that the Tories would win again. They did.

I said from a timing point of view that the Tories had picked the best time to devastate the Liberals but that they should not underestimate the BQ or an unexpected outside factor. As you know, that is exactly what happened.

In terms of money, organization, policies and timing, the Tories were well placed to crush the Liberals. They should have crushed the Liberals. However, a tin ear and a slow response to outside factors rattled their campaign.

[Molly]

And now... I honestly see the conservatives on the defensive. There is a touch of an air of desperation about them.

To me, that is more telling than any poll.

[benny]

To me, the Harper government looks like a bunch of homeless addicts judging by all their wavering and erratic behaviors around any stimulus package.

Edited April 11, 2009 by benny