Canadian Political Polls

[Smallc]

Oh yes, three cheers for the valiant NDP....

[madmax]

New Angus Reid poll shows the Conservatives pulling away. I really wonder if Iggy still wants that election. It is a good thing the NDP are saving us from a Harper majority because these are his strongest numbers in a long long time.

ANGUS REID STRATEGIES/TORONTO STAR POLL

Conservatives: 37%

Liberals: 29%

NDP: 16%

BQ: 9%

Greens: 8%

Looking at the internals of this poll this is pretty close to Conservative majority. They are up in Ontario from 2008 and have the same numbers in Qu from 2008. Election right now would only be good for Harper who would get a bump as the other three parties were blamed for the election.

Ontario

Con 44%

Lib 30%

NDP 16%

Qu

Con 21%

Lib 26%

NDP 12%

Bloc 35%

We can see from the poll that it isn't the party or the brand dragging the Liberals down but Iggy himself, who is pulling in Jack Layton numbers for best PM numbers.

The LPC made a huge mistake in trying to force feed on poll on the NDP at 12% when the NDP were at a high watermark of 19% just days before in another poll. Essentially the NDP remain in their margin of error. The CPC are growing, and Ignatieff is statiscally in Dion terrority prior to the 08 election.

No is the time for Harper to issue the poison pill if he wants to grab that elusive majority.

[madmax]

Oh yes, three cheers for the valiant NDP....

The LPC made a strategic move to put the NDP in the passengers seat. There were two possibilities.

1) Immediate Election.

2) Support a bill that offers some aid to people.

Its not valiant, but it is pragmatic.

[jdobbin]

The LPC made a huge mistake in trying to force feed on poll on the NDP at 12% when the NDP were at a high watermark of 19% just days before in another poll. Essentially the NDP remain in their margin of error. The CPC are growing, and Ignatieff is statiscally in Dion terrority prior to the 08 election.

Had the Liberals not said they had lost confidence, the NDP and Bloc would have voted down no confidence as per usual.

The poll of the last weeks have shown the Liberals are stagnant in the polls and the NDP dropping. Ekos showed it has been steady declines.

The Liberals had to change the dynamic and at the moment, it is the NDP supporting the government and it is NDP support dropping.

No is the time for Harper to issue the poison pill if he wants to grab that elusive majority.

Too poison a pill and he risks the backlash that hurt him after the lact election when it looked like he was being opportunistic with his own interest in attacking rather than governing.

At the moment, Harper is able to bask in the glow the same way Martin did in the early fall sessions when attending summits and international events. A few of the pollsters had commented back in the summer about where the highwater mark could be in the polls. After the G8 and G20 summits was one of those times. The Olympics were the other.

It is possible Harper might call a snap election or boot the NDP so throroughly in the balls that they let go of his leg. However, the electorate has made their feelings known on this brinkmanship.

And in the end, what does it gain Harper except another minority given where were are in the polls which is close to the last election? Unless you believe he has finally made the case for a majority win.

Edited September 26, 2009 by jdobbin

[jdobbin]

Its not valiant, but it is pragmatic.

And according to a few polls, it has hurt NDP support more than Liberal support.

Edited September 26, 2009 by jdobbin

[Keepitsimple]

And in the end, what does it gain Harper except another minority given where were are in the polls which is close to the last election? Unless you believe he has finally made the case for a majority win.

I agree. Just keep governing. There is a lot of potential rosiness leading up to the next election date - coming out of recession, Olympics, G8/G20. If Harper just governs efficiently, he'll have as good a chance as ever for a majority when election time rolls around. In the meantime, Ignatieff will be another year or two older and the Liberals will still be scrapping among themselves with the impatience of being in opposition.

[punked]

Had the Liberals not said they had lost confidence, the NDP and Bloc would have voted down no confidence as per usual.

The poll of the last weeks have shown the Liberals are stagnant in the polls and the NDP dropping. Ekos showed it has been steady declines.

The Liberals had to change the dynamic and at the moment, it is the NDP supporting the government and it is NDP support dropping.

.

Not true at all. Another Dobbin half truth although I bet he doesn't respond to this challenge because he is all spin.

If we look at the AR polls From the start of Sept to now. The Liberals have Dropped 3 points, the NDP 1. But facts escape Dobbin. You guys remember when the Liberals were polling at 33% through the summer now they are at 29% they are holding steady? Silly Liberal lies.

[punked]

And according to a few polls, it has hurt NDP support more than Liberal support.

Not true at all according to a few polls it hurt Liberal support more then NDP support but facts escape your spin.

[jdobbin]

I agree. Just keep governing. There is a lot of potential rosiness leading up to the next election date - coming out of recession, Olympics, G8/G20. If Harper just governs efficiently, he'll have as good a chance as ever for a majority when election time rolls around. In the meantime, Ignatieff will be another year or two older and the Liberals will still be scrapping among themselves with the impatience of being in opposition.

Well, this year's summits are wrapping up. It is back to business in Parliament and that is where we'll see of there isn't a slackening of Tory support. The session over its length could tighten the polls if the past years are any indication.

Harper could try to provoke things now by testing NDP resolve.

[madmax]

Federal Election Blues

An exclusive Leger Marketing poll for Sun Media reveals 36% of Canadians would vote for the Conservatives, down almost two percentage points from the last election. Only 30% would vote for the Liberals, but that represents a gain of 4% since the Liberals won 26% of the popular vote in the last election. The NDP is at 17% support, down 1%

When asked which leader would make the best prime minister, 32% said Harper, 21% said Ignatieff and 18% said the NDP's Jack Layton.

Canadians also said Harper was best suited to lead the country through a recession (36%), ahead of Ignatieff (22%) and Layton (13%).

Ignatieff fared even worse when respondents were asked about trust. He places third in every region of the country, with only 14% of Canadians saying they trust him, compared to 29% who trust Harper and 17% who trust Layton.

Regionally, the Liberals are only leading in the Atlantic provinces, with 39% support to the Tories' 24%, and in Quebec, where the Grits boast 30% support to the Tories' 17%.

In vote-rich Ontario, the Tories have 40% support compared to 34% for the Liberals.

When asked whether people wanted a change of government, 42% said yes while 46% said no. Respondents were evenly divided when asked to evaluate how Harper is leading the government, with 48% saying they were somewhat or very satisfied and 48% saying they were not very or not at all satisfied.

DEADLOCK.

The only thing I get from this, is that the public believes Canada is going in the right direction. And considering the Liberal intent is to continue going in the same direction as the CPC, they have yet to make a case for change, and in Ontario the LPC are behind the 8 ball.

The CPC numbers are solid

The LPC numbers are solid

and the NDP numbers remain in their traditional level of support.

No election until the CPC creep closer to 40%.

[madmax]

Not true at all according to a few polls it hurt Liberal support more then NDP support but facts escape your spin.

Todays poll, verify the NDP have received little "backlash". Infact, few people, short of optimistic Liberals who pushed the poll that the NDP were at 12% believed this poll as an accurate baseline.

Polls have had the NDP from 19% high to 12% low this month and the most recent has them at 17%.

I don't think the actions of our political parties have had any real effect on the public, however, an election campaign would be totally unpredictable. I wouldn't go with the polls heading into an election with a skeptical public.

[jdobbin]

Todays poll, verify the NDP have received little "backlash". Infact, few people, short of optimistic Liberals who pushed the poll that the NDP were at 12% believed this poll as an accurate baseline.

I generally look at the average for the month of September which is down.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/41st_Canadian_federal_election

The Tories are definitely up from their time in the spring/summer.

I don't think the actions of our political parties have had any real effect on the public, however, an election campaign would be totally unpredictable. I wouldn't go with the polls heading into an election with a skeptical public.

That is up the NDP and Bloc now. Or Harper if he feels, as he did last time, that he can win a majority.

[punked]

Another poll showing that from the summer the Cons are eating the Liberal vote. While the NDP holding steady no matter what Dobbin says otherwise.

Ledger poll:

Conservatives - 36%

Liberals - 30%

New Democrats - 17%

Bloc Quebecois - 8%

Greens - 8%

Really strong 18% in Ontario for the NDP.

Also I like this: "Stephen Harper is the best Prime Minister for 32%, while Michael Ignatieff is the choice of 21% and Jack Layton 18%" Jack is within striking distance of Iggy ouch Liberals.

Edited September 28, 2009 by punked

[Jerry J. Fortin]

Harper is still short of a majority, and the election has yet to be called. I think he will be lucky to hold onto power when the results are finalized.

[Topaz]

So now we have the political games on. The Libs will call for a confidence vote and then the NDP and the Bloc will vote no and then the next confidence vote will come again and if the NDP, especially, keeps voting no, then one has to wonder why? They voted against the government 79x, now they don't. The power is really in the NDP's hands bad or good for who calls the election, so I don't think we are going to have an election any time soon. Then again, IF the NDP want the Tories out then they will wait until things get bad again which probably won't be that long of wait.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

Do not bet one way or the other with the NDP. They get to call the ball, if they support the Conservatives there is no election and Iggy wants an election. The real question is what will Iggy do to go from here to there.

[madmax]

Another poll showing that from the summer the Cons are eating the Liberal vote. While the NDP holding steady no matter what Dobbin says otherwise.

Ledger poll:

Conservatives - 36%

Liberals - 30%

New Democrats - 17%

Bloc Quebecois - 8%

Greens - 8%

Really strong 18% in Ontario for the NDP.

Do you know how they correct the figures with the Before and AFTER distribution?

Its 31% CPC 26% LPC 14% NDP before Distribution

and

the figures you have above "After" distribution.

What does this mean?

[Jerry J. Fortin]

It means the stats are nicely adjusted to say what you want them to.

[madmax]

It means the stats are nicely adjusted to say what you want them to.

That's what I felt it meant. Thanks.

[punked]

Do you know how they correct the figures with the Before and AFTER distribution?

Its 31% CPC 26% LPC 14% NDP before Distribution

and

the figures you have above "After" distribution.

What does this mean?

It is either what happens after they add leaners, ie people who say they would probably vote for a party when pushed, orrrrrr it is what happens when you take the undecideds out I would say the later.

[jdobbin]

So now we have the political games on. The Libs will call for a confidence vote and then the NDP and the Bloc will vote no and then the next confidence vote will come again and if the NDP, especially, keeps voting no, then one has to wonder why?

From today's Reuters report:

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/090928/...ada_us_politics

Most recent polls also show falling support for the New Democrats. The idea of the party backing Harper has caused some consternation among members and Layton made clear he would be approach each vote case by case.

[punked]

From today's Reuters report:

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/090928/...ada_us_politics

Accept the newest poll shows the Liberals have fallen not the NDP, doesn't fit into the narrative of Dobbin though.

[Dave_ON]

Accept the newest poll shows the Liberals have fallen not the NDP, doesn't fit into the narrative of Dobbin though.

Per usual you ignore the facts that contradict your view that the NDP can do no wrong and all actions they undertake regardless of how much of a flip flop, or hypocritical they are, are beyond repute. The LPC has stayed in and around the 30% mark on average. If we average the NDP it's lower then there election results. Low mark being 12% the high around 18%, that puts them around their traditional 15% mark.

I guess this goes to show that the NDP should focus on showing the electorate that they do stand by their principles rather than bad mouthing the LPC all the time. The NDP are supposed to be an opposition party, yet they've apparently lost their appetite to oppose and their support will only suffer over the long term as a result.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

These polls are as usefull as puss!

[punked]

IR poll today:

Conservatives - 37%

Liberals - 30%

New Democrats - 14%

Bloc Quebecois - 9%

Greens - 9%

These guys always under poll the NDP so these numbers look ok to me. The Liberals can be thankful they haven't dipped to the 20s in all polls but give them a few more "ELECTION!!!" screams and we will see how it goes for them.