Canadian Political Polls

[jdobbin]

Latest Strategic Counsel poll:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politi...article1247314/

Stephen Harper's Conservatives have slightly slipped in Ontario but remain locked in a statistical tie with the Liberals for support across the country, a new poll shows.

The nationwide survey conducted by the Strategic Counsel for The Globe and Mail and CTV News found 34 per cent would support the Conservatives and 32 per cent would vote for Michael Ignatieff's Liberals. The NDP was the choice of 15 per cent, and the Green Party, 8 per cent.

According to the poll the Tories have pulled even with the Liberals on votes with women.

The BQ is still fairly rock solid in Quebec.

[punked]

Latest Strategic Counsel poll:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politi...article1247314/

According to the poll the Tories have pulled even with the Liberals on votes with women.

The BQ is still fairly rock solid in Quebec.

With the SC numbers we could see the BQ win almost every seat in PQ, It is Bloc 44% to Liberals 30%. That is sad. It is going to be worse in the fall when the attacks on Iggy's writings on the war and torture come out.

[jdobbin]

With the SC numbers we could see the BQ win almost every seat in PQ, It is Bloc 44% to Liberals 30%. That is sad. It is going to be worse in the fall when the attacks on Iggy's writings on the war and torture come out.

The BQ numbers are not so big in Montreal as Leger and CROP polls have shown. It could be trouble for Quebec City ridings for Tories.

[benny]

The BQ numbers are not so big in Montreal as Leger and CROP polls have shown. It could be trouble for Quebec City ridings for Tories.

Using two old polls to contradict the latest!

[jdobbin]

Latest Ekos poll:

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/090813/...s_politics_poll

The Ekos survey for the Canadian Broadcasting Corp. put the Conservatives at 32.7 percent support, down from 34.9 percent last week. The Liberals were at 31.0 percent, down from 31.9 percent.

Conservatives: 32.7 (-2.2)

Liberals: 31.0 (-0.9)

NDP: 16.5 (+2.7)

Bloc Quebecois: 9.7 (+1.1)

Green: 10.1 (-0.7

Undecided: 15.4 (-1.8)

Pretty much a deadlock.

Edited August 13, 2009 by jdobbin

[jdobbin]

And on the NDP name change:

http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianp...tviciYZK5IptyJg

The poll found 36 per cent of those who had an opinion on the matter thought it's a good idea to make the switch to the Democratic Party, while 31 per cent found it a bad idea.

The survey also suggests that the change would have little effect on voting intentions.

Among NDP-inclined voters, 77 per cent said the change have no impact on their vote, while 13 per cent said it would make them more likely to vote for the party.

Not exactly mindblowing numbers on voting intentions.

[benny]

And on the NDP name change

Not exactly mindblowing numbers on voting intentions.

Whatever the voting numbers, the NDP is not new anymore.

[punked]

New EKOS poll out today.

Conservatives - 32.8%

Liberals - 30.2%

New Democrats - 17.3%

Greens - 11.0%

Bloc Quebecois - 8.7%

Nothing new really the NDP is looking good maybe a jump on their Convention if the Liberal numbers dip to the 20's I don't think we will see an election haven't got the regional break downs yet though.

[Hydraboss]

New EKOS poll out today.

Conservatives - 32.8%

Liberals - 30.2%

New Democrats - 17.3%

Greens - 11.0%

Bloc Quebecois - 8.7%

Nothing new really the NDP is looking good maybe a jump on their Convention if the Liberal numbers dip to the 20's I don't think we will see an election haven't got the regional break downs yet though.

Interesting numbers. I agree with you...I would love to see the Libs dip to the 20's and the Dippers rise to the 20's.

[jdobbin]

New EKOS poll out today.

Conservatives - 32.8%

Liberals - 30.2%

New Democrats - 17.3%

Greens - 11.0%

Bloc Quebecois - 8.7%

Nothing new really the NDP is looking good maybe a jump on their Convention if the Liberal numbers dip to the 20's I don't think we will see an election haven't got the regional break downs yet though.

The polls look like this every summer.

Most of this is within the margin of error.

Breakdown here.

http://www2.macleans.ca/category/blog-cent...-the-queensway/

Certainly nothing for the Liberals to fear. They certainly are not in death spiral downwards. And the Tories would be mistaken if they think a summer break is giving them an accurate read of their election prospects in the fall.

As far as an election goes, the Liberals will not want to wait till the winter when Harper believes he will be riding high due to Olympics.

Harper himself may call a snap election of he feels will not back his government. We already know that the NDP and BQ will vote no confidence. We know that Harper is not interested in a working minority. This is as good a time as any to go.

I'm sure the the other parties will blame the Liberals if there is an election or if there isn't. Time for Ignatieff to blast right back.

Edited August 20, 2009 by jdobbin

[punked]

The polls look like this every summer.

Most of this is within the margin of error.

As far as an election goes, the Liberals will not want to wait till the winter when Harper believes he will be riding high due to Olympics.

Harper himself may call a snap election of he feels will not back his government. We already know that the NDP and BQ will vote no confidence. We know that Harper is not interested in a working minority. This is as good a time as any to go.

I'm sure the the other parties will blame the Liberals if there is an election or if there isn't. Time for Ignatieff to blast right back.

You do know these are the lowest Liberals numbers in an EKOS poll all year right? It seems like there is a real shift away.

[jdobbin]

Interesting numbers. I agree with you...I would love to see the Libs dip to the 20's and the Dippers rise to the 20's.

An unlikely thing but feel free to dream.

[punked]

An unlikely thing but feel free to dream.

It seems as the Liberals grab CPC votes they lose progressive votes to the NDP this is not a winning strategy.

[jdobbin]

It seems as the Liberals grab CPC votes they lose progressive votes to the NDP this is not a winning strategy.

I'm sure that NDP ridings will be targeted like never before in this coming election.

[punked]

I'm sure that NDP ridings will be targeted like never before in this coming election.

I am sure that is a losing strategy the Liberals still haven't paid off their debt from the last election. I think you are dreaming your usual lets kill the left so they must be forced to vote liberal dreams. They would be better off with their newly found right wing leader targeting Conservative ridings, certainly in Ontario and going after the 10 seats they can steal from the NDP. Whatever though becuase their is no difference between them and the Cons now I know many of my friends are not even toying with strategic voting this time around.

[jdobbin]

I am sure that is a losing strategy the Liberals still haven't paid off their debt from the last election. I think you are dreaming your usual lets kill the left so they must be forced to vote liberal dreams. They would be better off with their newly found right wing leader targeting Conservative ridings, certainly in Ontario and going after the 10 seats they can steal from the NDP. Whatever though becuase their is no difference between them and the Cons now I know many of my friends are not even toying with strategic voting this time around.

The debt has been paid as has been shown to you a number of times. Money is pouring in now. It is the NDP debt that has not been paid.

Ontario seats will be the target. And that means any of the seats Tories and NDP hold.

Edited August 20, 2009 by jdobbin

[punked]

The debt has been paid as has been shown to you a number of times. Money is pouring in now.

Ontario seats will be the target. And that means any of the seats Tories and NDP hold.

My bad you are correct.

You going to take back those 5 seats we won from you in Ontario? I am scared now. Yes you should focus on Ontario however targeting the NDP and attacking progressives is a losing strategy. Sorry we don't have enough seats, good luck with that though we are still polling high despite your new leader. Your move to the Right has opened up some of the centre for us, we are introducing a small bisuness tax cut bill, and we are carving out space. It looks good from here Dobbin, I am not worried about the Liberals this election.

[jdobbin]

You going to take back those 5 seats we won from you in Ontario? I am scared now. Yes you should focus on Ontario however targeting the NDP and attacking progressives is a losing strategy. Sorry we don't have enough seats, good luck with that though we are still polling high despite your new leader. Your move to the Right has opened up some of the centre for us, we are introducing a small bisuness tax cut bill, and we are carving out space. It looks good from here Dobbin, I am not worried about the Liberals this election.

I said all Ontario seats. And there are quite a few of those.

If the NDP think they are about to become government like they were saying last election, they are mistaken.

[punked]

I said all Ontario seats. And there are quite a few of those.

If the NDP think they are about to become government like they were saying last election, they are mistaken.

Good luck wasting money. Like I said we aren't scared of you.

If the Liberals think they are about to become government like they were saying last election, they are mistaken.

[Dave_ON]

My bad you are correct.

You going to take back those 5 seats we won from you in Ontario? I am scared now. Yes you should focus on Ontario however targeting the NDP and attacking progressives is a losing strategy. Sorry we don't have enough seats, good luck with that though we are still polling high despite your new leader. Your move to the Right has opened up some of the centre for us, we are introducing a small bisuness tax cut bill, and we are carving out space. It looks good from here Dobbin, I am not worried about the Liberals this election.

I think you're overstating the NDP's potential gains, at least here in Ontario. Voters in Ontario for the most part are left leaning, at least in the urban areas. Last election was somewhat of an anomaly and I think everyone can agree there was a huge vote split on the left. The LPC moving somewhat to right won’t necessarily hurt them; if anything it will likely increase their somewhat sagging rural support in Ontario.

Dionne left a bad taste in the mouths of many, and many couldn't bear to vote LPC as a result. I myself voted green last time as it was the only reasonable choice left to me. NDP was never an option for me nor is it for many Ontarians. Something you have to keep in mind is that 90% of Ontario still has a bad taste in their mouth for the NDP even though "Rae Days" were a provincial phenomenon. Even still the aversion to the NDP brand is strong in Ontario. NDP is also a distant 3rd in Quebec so they're not likely to make significant gains there. The LPC by contrast is polling quite well in both provinces. It's going to be a very tight race next election but it won't be a three way race. It's going to come down to either the CPC or the LPC and at this juncture the numbers are too close to call.

The key battle grounds have not really changed. All parties will be heavily focusing on Ontario, Quebec and BC. The Prairies are pretty much a foregone conclusion and the Atlantic Provinces and the territories don’t have sufficient seats to garner too much allocation of political resources.

[punked]

I think you're overstating the NDP's potential gains, at least here in Ontario. Voters in Ontario for the most part are left leaning, at least in the urban areas. Last election was somewhat of an anomaly and I think everyone can agree there was a huge vote split on the left. The LPC moving somewhat to right won’t necessarily hurt them; if anything it will likely increase their somewhat sagging rural support in Ontario.

Dionne left a bad taste in the mouths of many, and many couldn't bear to vote LPC as a result. I myself voted green last time as it was the only reasonable choice left to me. NDP was never an option for me nor is it for many Ontarians. Something you have to keep in mind is that 90% of Ontario still has a bad taste in their mouth for the NDP even though "Rae Days" were a provincial phenomenon. Even still the aversion to the NDP brand is strong in Ontario. NDP is also a distant 3rd in Quebec so they're not likely to make significant gains there. The LPC by contrast is polling quite well in both provinces. It's going to be a very tight race next election but it won't be a three way race. It's going to come down to either the CPC or the LPC and at this juncture the numbers are too close to call.

The key battle grounds have not really changed. All parties will be heavily focusing on Ontario, Quebec and BC. The Prairies are pretty much a foregone conclusion and the Atlantic Provinces and the territories don’t have sufficient seats to garner too much allocation of political resources.

I am not overstating anything they won 5 seats from the Liberals last election in Ontario. That is a fact.

Let me get this straight you have a bad taste from Bob Rea so you want to vote for a Party who has BOB REA in a central role? Makes perfect sense.

Edited August 20, 2009 by punked

[benny]

New EKOS poll out today.

Conservatives - 32.8%

Liberals - 30.2%

New Democrats - 17.3%

Greens - 11.0%

Bloc Quebecois - 8.7%

Nothing new really the NDP is looking good maybe a jump on their Convention if the Liberal numbers dip to the 20's I don't think we will see an election haven't got the regional break downs yet though.

Nothing really groundbreaking here, though it is a strong NDP result. This is in part due to the convention held in Halifax from August 14-16. However, the interesting part is that the NDP showed a huge gain only on August 18, where they polled somewhere around 25%. And their Atlantic Canada result, 22.9%, is surprising low considering where they've been recently and the fact that the convention was held in Nova Scotia. Can we say there has been a convention bump? With contradictory evidence like this, we need a second poll before we can say anything conclusive.

Sure a convention is a ponctual mediatic event, but it should also be structuring.

[Dave_ON]

I am not overstating anything they won 5 seats from the Liberals last election in Ontario. That is a fact.

Let me get this straight you have a bad taste from Bob Rea so you want to vote for a Party who has BOB REA in a central role? Makes perfect sense.

No I never said "I" have a bad taste in my mouth over Bob Rae, I said many Ontarians have a bad taste in their mouth for the NDP because of Rae Days. I didn't even live in Ontario when the provincial NDP were in Power. Regardless of which party he is affiliated with now doesn't change the fact that many people in Ontario don't like the NDP brand as a result of what occurred when they were in government. I personally don't like the NDP as I don't feel they represent my interests in the least. I'm not a unionized worker and they are far too left leaning for my taste. I don't like their policies on trying to impose limits on businesses, i.e. telling banks what their maximum interest rates can be, no banking fees etc. etc. They are a party that would regulate business, especially big business right out of Canada.

Suffice to say that the NDP needs to stop focusing on the LPC's leavings and start focusing on becoming a viable alternative on their own. They need to stop comparing themselves to the LPC and stop trying the replace them as they never truly will. This is why I have a great deal of respect for the Green Party. Many lump them in with the LPC and the NDP but anyone who truly looks at their philosophy and platform would find in many ways they are quite fiscally conservative. But because they have strong environmental policies, they're clearly "leftist wing nuts". However, I digress. The GPC is working hard to distinguish themselves from all parties not just the LPC, I think it's time the NDP does the same. They need to convince Canadians they can do a better job of forming the government of Canada then the CPC who is currently in power rather than trying to convince Canada that they can do a better job of official opposition then the LPC.

[punked]

No I never said "I" have a bad taste in my mouth over Bob Rae, I said many Ontarians have a bad taste in their mouth for the NDP because of Rae Days. I didn't even live in Ontario when the provincial NDP were in Power. Regardless of which party he is affiliated with now doesn't change the fact that many people in Ontario don't like the NDP brand as a result of what occurred when they were in government. I personally don't like the NDP as I don't feel they represent my interests in the least. I'm not a unionized worker and they are far too left leaning for my taste. I don't like their policies on trying to impose limits on businesses, i.e. telling banks what their maximum interest rates can be, no banking fees etc. etc. They are a party that would regulate business, especially big business right out of Canada.

Suffice to say that the NDP needs to stop focusing on the LPC's leavings and start focusing on becoming a viable alternative on their own. They need to stop comparing themselves to the LPC and stop trying the replace them as they never truly will. This is why I have a great deal of respect for the Green Party. Many lump them in with the LPC and the NDP but anyone who truly looks at their philosophy and platform would find in many ways they are quite fiscally conservative. But because they have strong environmental policies, they're clearly "leftist wing nuts". However, I digress. The GPC is working hard to distinguish themselves from all parties not just the LPC, I think it's time the NDP does the same. They need to convince Canadians they can do a better job of forming the government of Canada then the CPC who is currently in power rather than trying to convince Canada that they can do a better job of official opposition then the LPC.

We would never try to replace the LPC becuase our party tries to do what it says it will do. However we do run against both the LPC and CPC and because of that we often point out how we are different. As for the first this you said you know we have a record number of seats in Ontario right?

[Wild Bill]

We would never try to replace the LPC becuase our party tries to do what it says it will do. However we do run against both the LPC and CPC and because of that we often point out how we are different. As for the first this you said you know we have a record number of seats in Ontario right?

I think you are letting your hopes get in the way of your objectivity. Yes, you have a record number of seats in Ontario. You also took those seats away from the Liberals when they had that loser Dion as leader!

You don't have that advantage anymore. Neither does Harper, for that matter. I know in my own riding the NDP candidate only squeaked by, in a riding that was very strong Liberal for years.

It's true that Ontario folks have a bad impression of the NDP brand. Instead of accepting windfall benefits from Liberals screwing up perhaps they could make more gains by showing a face that's new and different! Provincially, Andrea Horvath is a nice lady but when she makes a speech it sounds like something cut and pasted from 1965.

I've been saying it for years that the NDP seems to be rabidly against moving with the times. Unio membership is far lower today than in 1965 yet their campaign speeches make it perfectly obvious that they are only for unions and those on government assistance. They pay lip service to small business 'cuz they would love to get their support but so far they've not come up with a blessed thing in their platform to appeal to them!

They desperately need to re-invent themselves. Layton is no Tony Blair, by a long shot. Laxer tried to tell them but they shot the messenger.

If my granny had wheels she wouldn't bump her ass when she hopped. Or some such platitude!

The NDP is a good example of how when you run only on dreams you rarely actually accomplish anything.