Canadian Political Polls

[capricorn]

This isn't as much of a lead as the article implies.

Sure they have a 4 point lead but when you consider a margin of error of 3.1% that lead isn't so impressive. This is really more of the same as what we've seen. The LPC staying at about 30 percent and the CPC hovering a little higher then the 32 percent mark.

In your analysis, you credit the margin of error over to the Liberal numbers. When the margin is credited to the Conservatives' numbers, a very different picture emerges.

[Mr.Canada]

In your analysis, you credit the margin of error over to the Liberal numbers. When the margin is credited to the Conservatives' numbers, a very different picture emerges.

These liberals see things as they want to see them. Then they want to tell the rest of us how we should live.

[Smallc]

In your analysis, you credit the margin of error over to the Liberal numbers. When the margin is credited to the Conservatives' numbers, a very different picture emerges.

I don't think it quite works that way. We don't know where the true numbers actually lie within the margin. He's right that the numbers aren't very different than past numbers.

[Dave_ON]

In your analysis, you credit the margin of error over to the Liberal numbers. When the margin is credited to the Conservatives' numbers, a very different picture emerges.

I'm not crediting the numbers to the liberals in the least. Statistically speaking only the number that excedes the margin of error is considered a lead. That is why consistantly in EKOS polls the CPC and the LPC have been "statistically" tied even though in all technicality the CPC has been "leading".

[Dave_ON]

These liberals see things as they want to see them. Then they want to tell the rest of us how we should live.

Quite to the contrary, it's the social conservatives that wish to tell us all what we can or cannot do, or in your case what the gender of my spouse has to be.

[capricorn]

I don't think it quite works that way. We don't know where the true numbers actually lie within the margin. He's right that the numbers aren't very different than past numbers.

True. Not much movement either way.

[gc1765]

All the polls I have seen recently seem to show that the Conservatives and Liberals are about tied:

The federal Liberals are tied for support with the Conservatives as the possibility of a fall federal election looms, a new EKOS poll released exclusively to CBC News suggests.

Asked which party they would vote for were a federal election held tomorrow, 32.6 per cent of respondents said they would cast their ballots for Stephen Harper's Tories, while the same percentage opted for Michael Ignatieff's Liberals, EKOS said.

Tories, Liberals in dead heat: poll

[gc1765]

I wonder how Ignatieff suggesting that he wants to bring down the government will affect the polls, or whether many people even noticed.

[Dave_ON]

I wonder how Ignatieff suggesting that he wants to bring down the government will affect the polls, or whether many people even noticed.

You answered that question with your posting on the latest EKOS poll. LPC actually went up from their stalled 30% to 32.6%. I wouldn't read too much into one poll though. Again this isn't really much movement and it's about the same as the margin of error.

I do find it interesting to note however that the LPC and CPC aren't just statistically tied but are precisely tied at 32.6%.

[jdobbin]

I wonder how Ignatieff suggesting that he wants to bring down the government will affect the polls, or whether many people even noticed.

Around here, people are still trying to get in some last holidays through the long weekend. There are some starting to pay attention but I suspect that it will be Tuesday next week when most start back to regular routines.

The 'gone fishin' sign will be taken down soon.

How will people react to an election? There will be huffin and puffin from some but I imagine there would be even if the fixed election date was coming up.

[OddSox]

You answered that question with your posting on the latest EKOS poll. LPC actually went up from their stalled 30% to 32.6%. I wouldn't read too much into one poll though. Again this isn't really much movement and it's about the same as the margin of error.

I do find it interesting to note however that the LPC and CPC aren't just statistically tied but are precisely tied at 32.6%.

Actually, that poll wouldn't reflect much about Ignatieff's speech as the poll ended the same day he announced his intentions and hardly anyone would have heard of it. From the story "The latest survey was conducted between Aug. 26 and Tuesday, the day Ignatieff announced his party would no longer support Harper's minority government in the coming fall session in the House of Commons.".

[punked]

There is a new Angus Reid poll in the Toronto Star (in print only - cannot find a link). It was in field Sept. 1 and 2 and it says:

CPC - 33%

Libs - 32%

NDP - 19% (highest i've seen in a while)

BQ - 9%

Gween - 7%

So no real change the NDP grabs a point the liberals 2 from the last one. Although good number 19% if we run a good campaign we could be sitting pretty. Seems like the Liberals need to start trying to take those votes from the Conservative not the NDP. The Left is hold strong.

[madmax]

NDP - 19% (highest i've seen in a while)

The Left is hold strong.

The only data that appears out on this poll is this part. I can't recall the NDP polling in 19%. The range is normally 13% to 18%.

The two main parties are still neck in neck.

I'd toss the NDP figure out, much like I didn't believe the number from one poll that had the CPC at 39% when everyother poll showed a virtual dead heat.

[punked]

The only data that appears out on this poll is this part. I can't recall the NDP polling in 19%. The range is normally 13% to 18%.

The two main parties are still neck in neck.

I'd toss the NDP figure out, much like I didn't believe the number from one poll that had the CPC at 39% when everyother poll showed a virtual dead heat.

We were 18% in the last AR poll and 17 in the EK poll today as well. I think the number might be high but starting and election at 16-19% is amazing.

[punked]

This poll is really good.

http://www.angusreidstrategies.com/uploads...PoliticsCAN.pdf

The NDP are 1% from winning in BC, if the Liberals fall just a little more in MB/Sask we might be able to pick up a seat or two there, I wish our Atlantic number was up and the Ontario number could be stronger, bust actually some of the best numbers we have had going into an election. We just aren't bleeding the numbers people keep telling us we should be.

PS. It is terrible for the Bloc. I think if we see some sick MPs it will be the Bloc MPs

[Dave_ON]

This poll is really good.

http://www.angusreidstrategies.com/uploads...PoliticsCAN.pdf

The NDP are 1% from winning in BC, if the Liberals fall just a little more in MB/Sask we might be able to pick up a seat or two there, I wish our Atlantic number was up and the Ontario number could be stronger, bust actually some of the best numbers we have had going into an election. We just aren't bleeding the numbers people keep telling us we should be.

PS. It is terrible for the Bloc. I think if we see some sick MPs it will be the Bloc MPs

Thanks for the survey link.

The numbers are relatively unchanged but what I found very funny is the following. In typical Canadian fashion we want change but we don't want an election.

The Canadian Political Pulse, conducted by Angus Reid Strategies in partnership with the Toronto Star, has found that 57 per cent of respondents are against the opposition parties toppling the Conservative government to trigger an election. Conversely, 32 per cent would support this move.

Despite the low support for holding an early election, the poll also found that 42 per cent of Canadians think it is time for a change in the federal government, meaning that a new party should be elected into power. Conversely, 34 per cent of Canadians think the Conservatives should stay in office.

I also wouldn't count the Bloc out just yet, they're notoriously good campaigners and their numbers will likely go up.

[Wild Bill]

The numbers are relatively unchanged but what I found very funny is the following. In typical Canadian fashion we want change but we don't want an election.

I also wouldn't count the Bloc out just yet, they're notoriously good campaigners and their numbers will likely go up.

Man, it's just too early to nitpick polls! The public hasn't had time to wake up yet!

Once again, most Canadians are NOT political junkies! Or poll junkies either, for that matter. Right now they are still in 'summer mode'. They're thinking about the kids finally going back to school, not who they will vote for in the next election.

The writ hasn't even been dropped yet!

In two words: nobody cares!

Give it a week or so before the polls even start to show any meaningful change. Right now we're within the same margin of error with results essentially the same as we've had all summer. Once school starts again and people return to their normal routine they will start to pay attention and think about it.

Ignatieff is well aware of these factors. Why do you think he made his intentions known now? He gets a free test of the waters. If after a couple of weeks he sees support shift in his favour he will proceed on course. If things go against him he will find some excuse to backpedal, knowing that nobody really cared anyway so no harm done.

Just because some of us desperately want a change is no reason to think that our opinion is in anyway shared by significant numbers of fellow Canadians.

[Dave_ON]

Man, it's just too early to nitpick polls! The public hasn't had time to wake up yet!

Just because some of us desperately want a change is no reason to think that our opinion is in anyway shared by significant numbers of fellow Canadians.

I was nitpicking polls? Was pretty sure I was just making an observation but call it what you will.

I think 42% of Canadians who want a change is a fairly significant number. 34% Don't want change also a significant number, which leaves 26% that don't care either way. Again a pretty good chunk of the public. In the end more want change then those who don't and that's the bottom line.

[gc1765]

I wonder how Ignatieff suggesting that he wants to bring down the government will affect the polls, or whether many people even noticed.

Looks like I have my answer:

The survey, conducted by Strategic Counsel for CTV and The Globe and Mail, puts Conservative support at 35 per cent of voters. The Liberals are at 30 per cent. The NDP are at 14, the Greens at 9 and the Bloc Québécois at 12.

link

Am I the only one who misses Dion? He was often criticized for being "weak" because he didn't want to defeat the government and force an election. I don't think there is anything weak about not forcing an election that no one wants.

[jdobbin]

Looks like I have my answer:

Strategic Counsel says it may be the only way for the Liberals to break from the accusation of weakness.

Am I the only one who misses Dion? He was often criticized for being "weak" because he didn't want to defeat the government and force an election. I don't think there is anything weak about not forcing an election that no one wants.

Did you read the rest of this?

“As long as they continue having to prop up the government, they're unable to differentiate themselves and make the case for change. Therefore, they have no momentum in the polls. But the only way to break out of this may be to start voting against the government and trigger an election in a situation where they're behind.”

[gc1765]

If that is true, that says something very strange about voters.

"We don't want an election, but we want you to force an election because if you don't we will think you are weak."

[jdobbin]

If that is true, that says something very strange about voters.

"We don't want an election, but we want you to force an election because if you don't we will think you are weak."

This is the argument I have been making for a while. At some point, the party had to ask itself if the thoughts from the electorate were contradictory. If the only way for the party to overcome the label of weakness and differentiate themselves from the Tories was to oppose but no one wanted an election, there was no way anyone would be happy.

Liberals had to ask themselves if the electorate was going to punish them for doing their job even if an election was the result. Internal polls seems to tell them it is a gamble but one they cannot afford to delay until Harper calls the next election. And knowing Harper that will be before the term limits.

[punked]

New CTV/Strategic Counsel, hot out of Lloyd Robertson's mouth:

Con 35% (up 1%)

Lib 30% (down 2%)

NDP 14%

Bloc 12%

Gr 9%

Ontario:

Con 41%

Lib 39%

Quebec:

Bloc 49%

Lib 23% (down 7%)

Con 16%

NDP 6%

this results suck for everyone seriously.

Edited September 8, 2009 by punked

[gc1765]

This is the argument I have been making for a while. At some point, the party had to ask itself if the thoughts from the electorate were contradictory. If the only way for the party to overcome the label of weakness and differentiate themselves from the Tories was to oppose but no one wanted an election, there was no way anyone would be happy.

Liberals had to ask themselves if the electorate was going to punish them for doing their job even if an election was the result. Internal polls seems to tell them it is a gamble but one they cannot afford to delay until Harper calls the next election. And knowing Harper that will be before the term limits.

I think the only explanation is that the people who called Dion weak for not defeating the government are the partisans who will criticize the Liberals no matter what they do. I remember having this debate with many Conservative supporters who argued that Dion was weak for not defeating the government, but also didn't want an election. Partisanship is the only explanation I can think of. The average Canadian doesn't want an election, and knows that you can't have it both ways. This is why I think Dion's approach was the right one and Ignatieff's approach is wrong.

If Canadians want to punish the Liberals for being "weak" (which sounds crazy to me), so be it. At least they are doing what is right.

[jdobbin]

If Canadians want to punish the Liberals for being "weak" (which sounds crazy to me), so be it. At least they are doing what is right.

If the Liberals do better in the election as a result of being strong in opposition, it is hard to think that is wrong. Don't you think?